Further milestones in the economic development of south-eastern Europe

Abstract

This article updates the authors’ previous analysis of the economic position facing western Balkans countries. It analyses development between 2008 and 2018 in five countries from the region - Serbia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Montenegro; North Macedonia; and Albania - and contrasts this with the three newest EU member states - Bulgaria; Romania; and Croatia. Its argumentation is based on the following parameters: GDP growth; GDP per capita; GDP at purchasing power parity; the share of investment in GDP; average monthly net wages; average monthly gross wages; inflation; the share of foreign and public debt share as a percentage of GDP; and balance of payments. In 2018, economic growth in the western Balkans reached 3.8 per cent, supported by increased public spending and, in Albania and North Macedonia, also by a rise in net exports. According to World Bank projections, western Balkans economies are projected to continue to expand in 2019-20, but this stable outlook is vulnerable and subject to risks, including not least the migration of well-educated and highly-skilled young people.