Abstract
The study evaluates the overall situation of Vietnam’s fisheries exports and uses the Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy model (the GSIM model) to predict the impact of the CPTPP agreement on Vietnam’s fisheries exports to the CPTPP members. It is forecasted that the CPTPP has positive effects on Vietnam’s fisheries exports. One of those is that it is promising for Vietnamese producers/exporters to access Mexico, which is a large market in the southern portion of North America. In addition, Vietnam has the advantage to continue increasing export earnings to the Japanese market after the CPTPP takes effect. By sub-sector, all sub-sectors have a positive impact on consumers/importers as well as producers/exporters. In terms of export value, all sub-sectors have increased export value, especially the Crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates, prepared or preserved (HS1605) export to Japan and the fish fillets and other fish meat (whether or not minced), fresh, chilled or frozen (HS0304) has significant export rise to Mexico. Nevertheless, the reduction of import tax revenues reduces the welfare of the fisheries sector.
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