Resilient Supply Research Articles

Microgrid Protection Against Internal Faults: Challenges in Islanded and Interconnected Operation

Microgrids have gained significant interest over the last 20 years and are perceived as key components of future power systems. Microgrids are defined as distribution networks with distributed energy resources (DERs) (e.g., distributed generators, storage devices, and controllable loads) operating in a controlled and coordinated way. Moreover, microgrids should have clear electrical boundaries and the ability to operate connected to the main power network or islanded. The coordinated control of microgrid resources increases energy efficiency, minimizes the overall energy consumption, and reduces the environmental impacts of energy production. At the same time, the ability of microgrids to seamlessly transition to islanded operation when upstream network faults occur increases the reliability and resilience of the customer supply. Furthermore, microgrids have been adopted as prominent and viable solutions for rural electrification in developing countries, isolated areas, or areas with weak power transmission infrastructures.

Rethinking infrastructure rehabilitation: Conflict resilience of urban water and energy supply in the Middle East and South Sudan

Protracted armed conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are heavily impacting the infrastructure of basic services such as water, energy, healthcare, and education. People adapt to these persistent conditions through self-organization, private sector-driven services and the reliance on international aid. In rehabilitating infrastructure damaged by conflicts, there is a rift between the perspectives of emergency aid and development cooperation. In fragile states, aid often fails to capture the temporal aspects of infrastructure in terms of its vulnerability to recurrent breakouts of conflicts and infrastructure’s long-term resilience. Besides, the issue of conflict resilience of basic infrastructure is lacking academic attention in terms of determining factors and best practices. In this paper, three examples of promising adaptation efforts are analyzed: the construction of water kiosks in South Sudan, self-organized markets for solar energy applications in Yemen, and the integration of schools with basic services in Syria. Using a comprehensive assessment framework of micro-level vulnerability (a system-unit risk perspective) and macro-level resilience (a whole-system strategy perspective), this paper highlights critical areas for enhancing conflict resilience in the case studies. It shows the importance of rethinking aspects of infrastructure development such as interconnectivity, mobility, centralization, or missing baselines. Infrastructure reconstruction efforts need to find a balance between highly integrated infrastructure systems and community-level production and delivery options. Further, for improving long-term infrastructure performance in conflict-ridden areas, softer issues need to be addressed, e.g., local capacities, institutional development, community trust, and the mobilization of reuse options or locally available resources.

Mathematical approach to forecast oil palm plantation yield under climate change uncertainties

Climate change is affecting crop yields and disrupting the global food system. Oil palm is one of the important vegetable oil crops and is widely cultivated in the tropical belt. Accounting the climate change effects while forecasting the oil palm yield is critical in building a resilient palm supply chain and ensuring food security. Though the productivity of oil palm plantations depends on various agroclimatic conditions and agronomic practices, the palm age, rainfall, and temperature are critical variables determining the yield. However, most works have failed to account for the age of palms. This work aims to account for the age of palms and also the impact of changing rainfall patterns and rise in temperature in forecasting the yield. A simple but robust mathematical approach is proposed to forecast yield at plantation level by accounting for the above-mentioned factors. An illustrative case study is solved to demonstrate the model. The results show that climate change effects results in 33.31 % - 8.18 % reduction in FFB yield. The proposed model allows effective planning and management of activities at plantations and can offset the impact of fresh fruit bunch yield uncertainties due to climate change effects on the downstream units of the palm supply chain.

Supply and inventory management resilience: how Ugandan businesses aim to overcome black swans

Supply and inventory management resilience: how Ugandan businesses aim to overcome black swans

An Open Online Product Marketplace to Overcome Supply and Demand Chain Inefficiencies in Times of Crisis

Abstract Digital tools for design and manufacturing have led to a new revolution in how products are conceptualized and made. These advancements have led to the democratization of ideation and creation of personalized products, as well as many other innovations. However, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed a critical flaw in the digital thread: the manufacturing systems of today remain inflexible to rapid changes brought on by emergency and crisis responses. The inefficiencies of this inflexibility caused by disconnects in supply and demand chains have become especially evident. We present a vision for a digital system—an open online product marketplace—that would enable product designers to rapidly connect with capable producers in meeting urgent customer demands. As such, this digital system would facilitate ordering, orchestration, and fulfillment, as well as continuous improvement of manufacturing-as-a-service systems. It would support flexible, sustainable, and resilient supply and demand chains beyond the COVID-19 period by enabling rapid specification matching for tailored or customized products to existing available manufacturing capabilities.

Domestic Water Supply Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Role of Alternative Water Sources in Kingston, Jamaica

Globally, freshwater resources are threatened, resulting in challenges for urban water supply and management. Climate change, population growth, and urbanization have only exacerbated this crisis. For the Caribbean, climate change through the impact of increasing temperatures and rainfall variability has resulted in more frequent and intense episodes of disasters including droughts and floods which have impaired the quantity and quality of freshwater supplies. Using Caribbean-specific climate forecasting, it is shown that rainfall totals in Kingston, Jamaica, are expected to reduce by 2030 and 2050 under two RCPs. In addition, the timing of the primary rainy season is expected to shift, potentially impacting water supply security. Analysis of the potential of rainwater harvesting (RWH) to augment supply and enhance water supply resilience shows that in two communities studied in Kingston, it can contribute up to 7% of total water supply. Household storage requirements are about 1 m3 per household, which is feasible. RWH offers the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures at a household level. Policy, incentives, and increased awareness about the potential of RWH to meet non-potable household demand in Kingston must be improved, as well as efforts to reduce the currently unreasonably high levels of non-revenue water in order to move towards an integrated, sustainable, and climate-resilient urban water supply strategy for the city.

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

AbstractERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

Evaluating the societal impact of disaster-driven infrastructure disruptions: A water analysis perspective

Critical infrastructure plays an important role in providing essential products and services to people; however, it is vulnerable to disasters and its disruption can have a severe societal impact. This study establishes a theoretical framework and proposes an integrated methodology to evaluate the societal impact of disrupted infrastructure in disaster events. Here, the societal impact is based on a water analysis and is defined as the percentage of the population in different levels of need satisfaction, which depends on the amount of water that people can obtain. Subsequently, based on water supply resilience analysis, an engineering model is proposed to estimate the water quantity during a disaster event considering the availability of tap water, emergency water, and bottled water. Meanwhile, physical interdependencies among the water supply system, emergency service, commercial facilities, electricity system, and transportation system are incorporated into an availability analysis of the three water sources. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the city of Osaka to validate its applicability and effectiveness. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can provide valuable information to decision-makers about the severity and spatial distribution of the societal impact of infrastructure disruption.

Enhancing supply resilience in the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study on beauty and personal care retailers

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic interrupts the supply chain of products around the world. The supply chains of beauty and personal care products in Bangladesh are also heavily interrupted during this pandemic. While these products are perceived as essential by mass people, retailers are struggling to get the supply of the products and maintain a smooth delivery to the people. Considering such facts, the purposes of the study are to identify how the supply of retailers of these products is interrupted and how they can overcome the interruptions to ensure supply resilience.Design/methodology/approachA case study method has been used in this study. The data has been collected through interviews from 16 retailers of beauty and personal care products.FindingsThe results show that the supply of retailers of beauty and personal care products is interrupted in several ways. These include product shortage, limited delivery service, interruption of supplier payment, limited credit facility and irregularity in product delivery. To minimize the impacts of the interruptions and enhance supply resilience, retailers can undertake several strategies including intensive interactions and developing cooperation with the distributors and manufacturers, ordering bulk quantity, formulating an adjusted credit ratio and focusing on product availability over brand preference.Research limitations/implicationsThe context of this study is limited to the beauty and personal care products of Bangladesh. Further study can be conducted in other countries and also supply chains of other products to enhance the generalizability of the findings of this study.Practical implicationsSupply interruptions are identified, and strategies are suggested to ensure the supply resilience of retailers of beauty and personal care products. If proposed strategies are implemented by retailers of these products, supply interruptions can be minimized.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the knowledge of the retail supply chain during a pandemic. It also contributes to the supply management and resilience of retailers. As the context is a developing country, the study also contributes to the literature on developing countries.

Economic factors affecting water supply resilience to disasters

Water supply systems need to be resilient enough to provide people and critical users with reliable water following a disaster. Previous research has shown that four main factors dictate system robustness and rapidity of recovery following a disaster: vulnerability, social capital, organisational capacity, and economic capital. This paper identifies the economic factors affecting water supply resilience. Relevant factors and indicators were gathered through a comprehensive literature review and verified through a series of interviews with water supply, resilience, and social scientists and economists. Economic capacity and quick access to finance were found to be the main economic factors influencing the resilience of water supply systems. Quick access to finance is most important in the early stages following a disaster for response and restoration, but its importance declines over time. In contrast, the economic capacity of the disaster struck area as well as the water sector play a vital role in the subsequent reconstruction phase rather than in the response and restoration period. Indicators for these factors were tested for the case of the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand.

Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives

In this study, a model was created with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System and used to explore the benefits of altering the operations of Tarbela Dam in terms of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) for the three objectives of irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Sensitivity analysis and logical reasoning with operators identified a feasible operational rule curve for testing using the integrated performance analysis. The reservoir performance for the altered operations was compared to the baseline performance following current operations for both historical and projected future climate and water demand conditions. Key simulation results show that the altered operations strategy tested under historical climate and water demand conditions would increase RRV by 17%, 67%, and 7%, respectively, for the water supply objective and 34%, 346%, and 22%, respectively, for hydropower generation. For projected future conditions, the proposed operations strategy would increase RRV by 7%, 219%, and 11%, respectively, for water supply and 19%, 136%, and 13% for hydropower generation. Synthesis of the results suggests significant benefits for reliability and resilience of water supply and hydropower are possible with slight operational adjustments. Overall, the integrated performance analysis supports the need to develop an optimized operations rule for Tarbela to adapt to projected climate and demand scenarios.

Coexistence of supply chains in a city's food supply: a factor for resilience?

The objective of this article is to propose and test an approach to characterise a city’s supply system and analyse its resilience. Anchored in economic and network sociology, the approach has been enriched by contributions from management sciences and geomatics, which have made it possible to conceptualise a city’s supply system as a network that is both social and spatialised, structured by operators and circulating differentiated products. Tested in the city of Montpellier, a signatory of the Milan Pact, this research was based on the production of primary data from a variety of sellers and suppliers. While confirming the complementarity between short and long supply chains, the results show more broadly how the articulation of three spatialised markets favours the resilience of the city’s supply, even if it is also a source of vulnerability. Therefore, these results make an original contribution to the intersection of research on the resilience of urban supply and on coexistence in food systems, while also calling for further research.

Supply chain resilience: an adaptive cycle approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for extending an understanding of resilience in complex adaptive system (CAS) such as supply chains using the adaptive cycle framework. The adaptive cycle framework may help explain change and the long term dynamics and resilience in supply chain networks. Adaptive cycles assume that dynamic systems such as supply chain networks go through stages of growth, development, collapse and reorientation. Adaptive cycles suggest that the resilience of a complex adaptive system such as supply chains are not fixed but expand and contract over time and resilience requires such systems to navigate each of the cycles’ four stages successfully.Design/methodology/approachThis research uses the adaptive cycle framework to explain supply chain resilience (SCRES). It explores the phases of the adaptive cycle, its pathologies and key properties and links these to competences and behaviors that are important for system and SCRES. The study develops a conceptual framework linking adaptive cycles to SCRES. The goal is to extend dynamic theories of SCRES by borrowing from the adaptive cycle framework. We review the literature on the adaptive cycle framework, its properties and link these to SCRES.FindingsThe key insight is that the adaptive cycle concept can broaden our understanding of SCRES beyond focal scales, including cross-scale resilience. As a framework, the adaptive cycle can explain the mechanisms that support or prevent resilience in supply chains. Adaptive cycles may also give us new insights into the sort of competences required to avoid stagnation, promote system renewal as resilience expands and contracts over time.Research limitations/implicationsThe adaptive cycle may move our discussion of resilience beyond engineering and ecological resilience to include evolutionary resilience. While the first two presently dominates our theorizing on SCRES, evolutionary resilience may be more insightful than both are. Adaptive cycles capture the idea of change, adaptation and transformation and allow us to explore cross-scale resilience.Practical implicationsKnowing how to prepare for and overcoming key pathologies associated with each stage of the adaptive cycle can broaden our repertoire of strategies for managing SCRES across time. Human agency is important for preventing systems from crossing critical thresholds into imminent collapse. More importantly, disruptions may present an opportunity for innovation and renewal for building more resilience supply chains.Originality/valueThis research is one of the few studies that have applied the adaptive cycle concept to SCRES and extends our understanding of the dynamic structure of SCRES

Improving resilience of Cagayan de Oro's water supply to flooding

Abstract The ‘Ridge to Coast, Rain to Tap’ (R2CR2T) project aims to address several identified factors in order to reduce flood vulnerability and improve the resilience of the water supply in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines. The project, which started on 1st January 2018, has adopted an integrated approach, working both directly on the water supply infrastructure and at a systemic level in the river basin. Through capacity development, investments and technical assistance, the project will provide a strong boost to improve the operations of the Cagayan de Oro Water District (COWD). Water supply coverage, sanitation services and disaster risk reduction are being expanded to up to 7,000 previously unserved households in relocation areas, primarily inhabited by people who lost their homes in the 2011 Sendong flood. In the upstream Cagayan de Oro River Basin (CDORB), several pilot reforestation interventions are being implemented in partnership with local Indigenous Peoples (IP) communities to demonstrate effective and sustainable ways for addressing the causes of flooding. The project aims to contribute to an enabling environment in which public and private stakeholders in CDO and Bukidnon Province cooperate towards flood risk reduction. The R2CR2T project is a Public-Private Partnership including partners Cagayan de Oro Water District, VEI, FITC, Unifrutti Tropical Philippines Inc, Cagayan de Oro River Basin Management Council, Hineleban Foundation, Bukidnon Indigenous Peoples Advisory Council, Wetlands International, Philippines Red Cross and Netherlands Red Cross. The R2CR2T project is 49% co-funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and administered by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) through the Sustainable Water Fund.

Research opportunities for a more resilient post-COVID-19 supply chain – closing the gap between research findings and industry practice

PurposeThe COVID-19 crisis has caused major supply chain disruptions, and these can be traced back to basic supply chain risks that have previously been well identified in literature. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a pathway for closing the gap between supply chain resilience research and efforts in industry to develop a more resilient supply chain.Design/methodology/approachBased upon virtual roundtables with supply chain executives, supplemented with interviews and publicly available datapoints about COVID-19 impact on the supply chain, we explore challenges in industry and suggest opportunity areas where research can support efforts in industry to improve supply chain resilience.FindingsDuring the COVID-19 crisis, participating supply chain executives are experiencing textbook supply, demand and control risks in the supply chain. They also observe a lack of preparedness, shortcomings of current response plans and the need for greater supply chain resilience. Focus areas in improving resilience mirror generic recommendations from literature and provide a rich opportunity to reduce the gap between research findings and efforts in industry.Research limitations/implicationsMore empirical, event-based and less conceptual research into supply chain resilience has been called for several times during the last two decades. COVID-19 provides a very rich opportunity for researchers to conduct the type of research that has been called for. This research may contribute to the structurally de-risking of supply chains. Areas of research opportunity include decision models for supply chain design that avoid overfocusing on costs only, and that consider the value of flexibility, short response times and multiple sources as well as methods for enriching supplier segmentation and evaluation models to reduce a focus on savings and payment terms only.Practical implicationsKey levers for de-risking the supply chain include the need to balance global sourcing with nearshore and local sourcing, the adoption of multiple sources and a greater utilization of information technology to drive more complete and immediate information availability. Perhaps most importantly, talent management in supply chain management needs to promote a focus not just on costs, but also on resilience as well as on learning from current events to improve decision-making.Social implicationsThere is a great opportunity for supply chain managers to grow their contribution to society beyond risk response into the proactive reduction of risks for the future. Researchers can serve society by informing this progress with impactful research.Originality/valueThis article offers initial empirical exploration of supply chain risks experienced in the context of COVID-19 and approaches considered in industry to improve supply chain resilience. Opportunities for empirical, event-based and less conceptual research that has been called for years, are identified. This research can help close the gap between supply chain resilience research and efforts in industry to improve supply chain resilience. Hopefully the research opportunities identified can inspire the flurry of research that can be expected in response to the multiple special issues planned by journals in our field.

Primary healthcare practitioners and patient blood management in Africa in the time of coronavirus disease 2019: Safeguarding the blood supply.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted various weaknesses in global healthcare services. The blood supply in Africa is a critical element of the healthcare service that may be significantly affected by the pandemic. By implementing principles of patient blood management, primary healthcare practitioners may play an important role in the resilience of the blood supply during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quantifying Electricity Supply Resilience of Countries with Robust Efficiency Analysis

The interest in studying energy systems’ resilience is increasing due to a rising awareness of the importance of having a secure energy supply. This growing trend is a result of a series of recent disruptions, among others also affecting electricity systems. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for policymakers to determine whether their country has a resilient electricity supply. Starting from a set of 12 indicators, this paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to comprehensively evaluate the electricity supply resilience of 140 countries worldwide. Two DEA models are applied: (1) the original ratio-based Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) model and (2) a novel hybrid framework for robust efficiency analysis incorporating linear programming and Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the CCR model deems 31 countries as efficient and hence lacks the capability to differentiate them. Furthermore, the CCR model considers only the best weight vectors for each country, which are not necessarily representative of the overall performance of the countries. The robustness analysis explores these limitations and identifies South Korea, Singapore and Canada as the most resilient countries. Finally, country analyses are conducted, where Singapore’s and Japan’s performances and improvement potentials are discussed.

Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought

As rural African communities experience more frequent and extreme droughts, it is increasingly important that water supplies are climate resilient. Using a unique temporal dataset we explore rural water supply (n = 5196) performance during the 2015–16 drought in Ethiopia. Mean functionality ranged from 60% for motorised boreholes to 75% for hand-pumped boreholes. Real-time monitoring and responsive operation and maintenance led to rapid increases in functionality of hand-pumped and, to a lesser extent, motorised boreholes. Increased demand was placed on motorised boreholes in lowland areas as springs, hand-dug-wells and open sources failed. Most users travelled >1 h to access motorised boreholes but <30 min, increasing to 30-60 mins, for hand-pumped boreholes. Boreholes accessing deep (>30 m) groundwater performed best during the drought. Prioritising access to groundwater via multiple improved sources and a portfolio of technologies, such as hand-pumped and motorised boreholes, supported by responsive and proactive operation and maintenance, increases rural water supply resilience.

Rethinking Chinese supply resilience of critical metals in lithium-ion batteries

With the rapid development of the lithium-ion battery (LIB) industry, the demand for core valuable elements in LIB has increased dramatically. A safe supply of corresponding metals is crucial to ensure the industry’s sustainability. However, quantitative evaluation to reveal the supply risk including criticality of LIBs in China is still not available. In this regard, criticality analysis was carried out to identify the importance of a specific metal in the current LIBs supply chain of raw materials. Subsequently, a comprehensive methodology to evaluate supply sustainability is established in this research by considering the combined effects of material supply, economic fluctuations, and technology innovation in the time frame from 2015 to 2030. An integrated index called Chinese supply resilience is introduced, indicating that a low Chinese supply resilience has a high possibility of supply shortage of the corresponding metal while a high resilience level represents minor supply risk. The results show that insufficient material supply has already induced a severe shortage for lithium (Li) and cobalt (Co). Specifically, Chinese supply resilience of lithium moves from the threshold to the low resilience zone, whereas that for cobalt remains in the low area, both implying a high risk of supply shortage. Furthermore, three appropriate mitigation measures, that is, recycling of spent LIBs, substitution of raw materials, and an increase in domestic raw materials production are considered. Recycling demonstrates the most effective solution to alleviate the potential supply risk of corresponding materials. With this research, it may promote management efficiency on end-of-life LIBs for policy makers.

Strategic intent of OBOR: enhancing energy supply resilience

Since the launch of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative in 2015, China has announced its intention to invest in major infrastructure projects to promote trade and co-operation with its trading partners along OBOR. This paper examines the current level of trading and key projects underway along OBOR so as to provide insights to understand its strategic intent. In particular, a network model is constructed to analyze the impact to China current and future demand for energy under various conditions especially during prolonged periods of supply uncertainties. Since these key projects are closely connected to the current and proven oil and natural gas reserves locations, the findings propound the OBOR initiative is more than trade and a key motivation is to enhance China’s energy supply resilience amongst other imperatives.