Abstract
In this study, a model was created with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System and used to explore the benefits of altering the operations of Tarbela Dam in terms of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) for the three objectives of irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Sensitivity analysis and logical reasoning with operators identified a feasible operational rule curve for testing using the integrated performance analysis. The reservoir performance for the altered operations was compared to the baseline performance following current operations for both historical and projected future climate and water demand conditions. Key simulation results show that the altered operations strategy tested under historical climate and water demand conditions would increase RRV by 17%, 67%, and 7%, respectively, for the water supply objective and 34%, 346%, and 22%, respectively, for hydropower generation. For projected future conditions, the proposed operations strategy would increase RRV by 7%, 219%, and 11%, respectively, for water supply and 19%, 136%, and 13% for hydropower generation. Synthesis of the results suggests significant benefits for reliability and resilience of water supply and hydropower are possible with slight operational adjustments. Overall, the integrated performance analysis supports the need to develop an optimized operations rule for Tarbela to adapt to projected climate and demand scenarios.
Highlights
Water management has become more complex with human population growth; the emergence of broader performance objectives; and the increase in uncertainty of water availability, energy demand, and flood risk [1,2,3]
The simulations of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model with altered rule curves under the historical conditions showed that the reliability of hydropower and irrigation supply was sensitive to the changes in the minimum reservoir level (Figure 7)
The best combination of hydropower generation and meeting irrigation demand reliability occurred when the minimum reservoir level was set during April through May (Figure 7)
Summary
Water management has become more complex with human population growth; the emergence of broader performance objectives; and the increase in uncertainty of water availability, energy demand, and flood risk [1,2,3]. In South Asia, Pakistan is facing grave challenges of increasing population, intensifying precipitation extremes, and broadened expectations for water system performance [4,5]. Floods and droughts pose a significant threat to agriculture and hydropower generation [8,9]. Given Pakistan’s water challenges, large multi-purpose reservoirs such as Tarbela Reservoir constitute a vital component of the country’s water resource infrastructure [10,11]. The Tarbela Reservoir on the Indus River serves multiple purposes, most importantly irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control [12].
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