Relevant External Factors Research Articles

A Bayesian approach to estimating hidden variables as well as missing and wrong molecular interactions in ordinary differential equation-based mathematical models.

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are a popular approach to quantitatively model molecular networks based on biological knowledge. However, such knowledge is typically restricted. Wrongly modelled biological mechanisms as well as relevant external influence factors that are not included into the model are likely to manifest in major discrepancies between model predictions and experimental data. Finding the exact reasons for such observed discrepancies can be quite challenging in practice. In order to address this issue, we suggest a Bayesian approach to estimate hidden influences in ODE-based models. The method can distinguish between exogenous and endogenous hidden influences. Thus, we can detect wrongly specified as well as missed molecular interactions in the model. We demonstrate the performance of our Bayesian dynamic elastic-net with several ordinary differential equation models from the literature, such as human JAK–STAT signalling, information processing at the erythropoietin receptor, isomerization of liquid α-Pinene, G protein cycling in yeast and UV-B triggered signalling in plants. Moreover, we investigate a set of commonly known network motifs and a gene-regulatory network. Altogether our method supports the modeller in an algorithmic manner to identify possible sources of errors in ODE-based models on the basis of experimental data.

How will text size influence the length of its linguistic constituents?

AbstractAs human language is a multi-level complex adaptive system, a text can be seen as emergent from the complex interactions between internal and external factors. Text types such as microblog have size restriction, an external variable which may affect relevant quantitative properties of the texts themselves. Such texts provide a good opportunity to investigate the interactions between the external and internal factors of human language from the perspective of complex adaptive system. This study focuses on how the size restriction of Chinese microblog texts affects the length of their sentences and clauses. Quantitative properties concerning sentence and clause length of Chinese microblog texts are analyzed and compared with those of texts with no size restriction (i.e., prose, news report and romantic fiction). Analysis of sentence length distribution shows that size restriction has an impact on sentence length measured by numbers of words and clauses. The correlation between sentence length and clause length is examined with Menzerath-Altmann law. The satisfying fitting result of microblog texts probably suggests that, language units are able to re-organize and re-regulate their structures according to relevant external factors, until they reach a balanced new system.

Macroeconomic Analysis of the Competitive Factors which Influence Innovation in Rural Entrepreneurship

In order to identify the main factors influencing the development of entrepreneurial innovation in the rural environment, the present study starts from the analysis of competitiveness at a macroeconomic level, by extrapolating all the factors at a regional level. Following the analysis of the relevant factors, a descriptive model was conceived pertaining to the development entrepreneurial innovation in rural areas. The model is centered on entrepreneurial innovation and is conceived as a nucleus in the development of competitiveness in the rural environment. The development of innovation may occur by the complex interaction of the four elements, which form what is known as Porter's diamond. Other relevant external factors are all the institutions which may influence innovation in the rural environment.

Multifactorial Assessment of Monopolisation Trends through the Analytical Prism of Price-Based Market Power and Business Cycle Fluctuation Quantitative Evaluation

The research “Multifactorial Assessment of Monopolisation Trends through the Analytical Prism of Price-Based Market Power and Business Cycle Fluctuation Quantitative Evaluation” provides a multi-perspective in-depth analysis of the nature, the occurrence sources, the development features and the conjuncture specifics of the modern process of monopolisation, assessed through the prism of coherent and multifactorial econometrical modelling. The main scope of the aforementioned research is devoted to further developing and significantly enhancing the previously introduced monopolisation trend quantitative analysis methodologies, developed by the Authors, (Skoruks et al, 2015a,b,c) through simultaneous consideration of the broader context of price volatility and the relevant external factors, existing at various stages of business cycle spiral development, which affect the conduct of internal economic processes within a defined relevant market. The conducted research provides an example of modern econometrical method application within a unified framework of market competition environment analysis for the purpose of conducting a quantitative monopolisation trend evaluation on a relevant market level, while simultaneously considering the business cycles-induced effects on pricing strategies, implemented by the supply-side market actors. The research results may be defined as a system of complex outcomes, which enable the taking of the next constituent step in monopolisation trend detecting, quantification and evaluation, while simultaneously developing an innovative indicator, which had proven to be highly complementary with, while remaining functionally independent of, the analytical systems, used in Authors’ previously developed methodologies, thus creating a positive synergetic effect in terms of the enhancing the functionality, implementation efficiency and outcome transparency of the conducted empirical research. The achieved level of methodological complementarity enables the possibility of establishing a unified approach to monopolisation phenomenon’s analysis and a holistic interpretation of its generated outcomes, thus creating common ground in terms of market inquiry conduction and positively contributing to generating an analytical consensus between both private market entities and public bodies in terms of business/investment activity strategic planning of the former becoming universally compliant with the regulatory action/intervention policy proportionality analysis of the latter. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.27.5.14921

МІЖНАРОДНИЙ ПРАВОПОРЯДОК: ДО ПИТАННЯ ВЛАСТИВОСТЕЙ (ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ АСПЕКТИ)

The article deals with one of the theoretical aspects of international legal order issues – the question of its properties. The author summarizes the doctrinal views of international law and regards the basic properties of the phenomenon of international legal order as its ability to act as system complexity, dynamism, orderliness, the reality and legitimacy of actions of subjects. The author notes that there is a common position in the doctrine, according to which the international legal order is a system. However, he notes that the difference in views on the international legal order as a system consists in the components the researchers include in its composition; the author examines two theoretical approaches. The complexity of the international legal order is determined from the standpoint of the number of its elements and components, as well as the number of their connections. This opinion highlights the fact that the predominant role is played by the quantity of links between elements and components, and indicates the international legal order capacity for permanent changes under the influence of the relevant internal and external factors. The dynamism of the international legal order is characterized from the point of capacity for the development and modification. It is stated that the state of the dynamics is effected by several circumstances. The author concludes that this international legal order’s property as a dynamism is one of the qualities that characterizes its condition as a system. The orderliness of the international legal order is considered from a consistency point, the interaction of parts of the whole, due to its structure. The author notes that the ordering of the international legal order displays its internal relationships and emphasizes its status as a system. The reality of the international legal order is characterized from the point of objectively existing phenomenon. The author concludes that the allocation of the international legal order of reality as one of its properties is intended to emphasize the status of one of its most important components - the state of international relations. Separately, the author considers the question of the legality of actions of subjects of international law, which are discussed in the doctrine from the standpoint of the conditions necessary for its maintenance. The author points out that in the general context of the properties that characterize the international legal order, it can be considered as an aspect wich together with other characterizes the state of the international legal order.

Inquiry-Based Educational Design for Large-Scale High School Astronomy Projects Using Real Telescopes

In this paper, we outline the theory behind the educational design used to implement a large-scale high school astronomy education project. This design was created in response to the realization of ineffective educational design in the initial early stages of the project. The new design follows an iterative improvement model where the materials and general approach can evolve in response to solicited feedback. The improvement cycle concentrates on avoiding overly positive self-evaluation while addressing relevant external school and community factors while concentrating on backward mapping from clearly set goals. Limiting factors, including time, resources, support and the potential for failure in the classroom, are dealt with as much as possible in the large-scale design allowing teachers the best chance of successful implementation in their real-world classroom. The actual approach adopted following the principles of this design is also outlined, which has seen success in bringing real astronomical data and access to telescopes into the high school classroom.

Social CRM: A Business Case for the Irish Health Insurance Industry

Social Customer Relationship Management (Social CRM) is emerging as a major initiative for a number of organisations due to its appeal as a new channel of communication as well as its effectiveness as a customer engagement tool. Though there is growing acceptance of Social CRM, many organisations are not entirely convinced of its suitability due to the difficulty in justifying the Business Case. This paper introduces a framework for validating its Business Case. It is observed that some industries are more suited to Social CRM due to the nature of the business, customer profile and a number of other external factors. This paper focuses on the Irish Health Insurance Industry as a specific example and explores relevant external environmental factors which can influence the Social CRM business case. The research was carried out by studying the existing literature to identify relevant topics which were then analysed based on the current market situation. A team of experts assisted in validating the study and arriving at the level of influence. The research confirms that nine out of the ten external environmental factors examined positively influence the business case for Social CRM.

A methodological approach to identify external factors for indicator-based risk adjustment illustrated by a cataract surgery register.

BackgroundRisk adjustment is crucial for comparison of outcome in medical care. Knowledge of the external factors that impact measured outcome but that cannot be influenced by the physician is a prerequisite for this adjustment. To date, a universal and reproducible method for identification of the relevant external factors has not been published. The selection of external factors in current quality assurance programmes is mainly based on expert opinion. We propose and demonstrate a methodology for identification of external factors requiring risk adjustment of outcome indicators and we apply it to a cataract surgery register.MethodsDefined test criteria to determine the relevance for risk adjustment are “clinical relevance” and “statistical significance”. Clinical relevance of the association is presumed when observed success rates of the indicator in the presence and absence of the external factor exceed a pre-specified range of 10%. Statistical significance of the association between the external factor and outcome indicators is assessed by univariate stratification and multivariate logistic regression adjustment.The cataract surgery register was set up as part of a German multi-centre register trial for out-patient cataract surgery in three high-volume surgical sites. A total of 14,924 patient follow-ups have been documented since 2005. Eight external factors potentially relevant for risk adjustment were related to the outcome indicators “refractive accuracy” and “visual rehabilitation” 2–5 weeks after surgery.ResultsThe clinical relevance criterion confirmed 2 (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) external factors. The significance criterion was verified in two ways. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed almost identical external factors: 4 were related to “refractive accuracy” and 7 (6) to “visual rehabilitation”. Two (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) factors conformed to both criteria and were therefore relevant for risk adjustment.ConclusionIn a practical application, the proposed method to identify relevant external factors for risk adjustment for comparison of outcome in healthcare proved to be feasible and comprehensive. The method can also be adapted to other quality assurance programmes. However, the cut-off score for clinical relevance needs to be individually assessed when applying the proposed method to other indications or indicators.

Construction of index system for external risk factors of disease on large-scale farm based on the analytic hierarchy process

Animal health risk analysis technology on large-scale farm is becoming more important, but the assessment of relevant external risk factors of disease spreading into pig farm is an complex multi-dimensional process. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been accepted as a robust and flexible multi-criteria decision-making tool for dealing with complex decision problems. On this study, The index system of external risk factors on large-scale farm is built based on AHP. The result shows that farm management practices, Biosecurity and site are major risk factors and reveals AHP can be used in animal risk analysis for disease control and prevention.

Explaining and Measuring the Embrace of Local Agenda 21s by Local Governments

Previous research has identified factors affecting local government (LG) adoption of Local Agenda 21 (LA21). The objective of this research is to propose a measurement model and test it in the case of a specific region, the Basque Country. Research results show that the embrace of LA21 by LGs is explained by internal characteristics of LG and factors associated with LG environment, which is fostered, fundamentally, by higher levels of government that can create connected or networking processes. The most relevant external factors are associated with a concept under-emphasised in previous sustainable development literature: cocreation. We propose that, to achieve generalised diffusion of LA21-type tools, we should emphasise cocreation in networks instead of networks in general. The measurement model used in this research could be used in other contexts as a means of confirming or refuting our results and offer politicians a guide for achieving a more generalised and robust diffusion of LA21 processes. This research contributes to LA21 and innovation-adoption literatures.

Regression analysis on the variation in efficiency frontiers for prevention stage of HIV/AIDS

Objectives:To investigate how the cost effectiveness of preventing HIV/AIDS varies across possible efficiency frontiers (EFs) by taking into account potentially relevant external factors, such as prevention stage, and how the EFs can be characterized using regression analysis given uncertainty of the QALY-cost estimates.Methods:We reviewed cost-effectiveness estimates for the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS published from 2002–2007 and catalogued in the Tufts Medical Center Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry. We constructed efficiency frontier (EF) curves by plotting QALYs against costs, using methods used by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) in Germany. We stratified the QALY-cost ratios by prevention stage, country of study, and payer perspective, and estimated EF equations using log and square-root models.Results:A total of 53 QALY-cost ratios were identified for HIV/AIDS in the Tufts CEA Registry. Plotted ratios stratified by prevention stage were visually grouped into a cluster consisting of primary/secondary prevention measures and a cluster consisting of tertiary measures. Correlation coefficients for each cluster were statistically significant. For each cluster, we derived two EF equations – one based on the log model, and one based on the square-root model.Discussion:Our findings indicate that stratification of HIV/AIDS interventions by prevention stage can yield distinct EFs, and that the correlation and regression analyses are useful for parametrically characterizing EF equations. Our study has certain limitations, such as the small number of included articles and the potential for study populations to be non-representative of countries of interest. Nonetheless, our approach could help develop a deeper appreciation of cost effectiveness beyond the deterministic approach developed by IQWiG.

Stochastic Frontier Analysis of the Efficiency of Czech Grammar Schools

The study focuses on the evaluation of the relative effi ciency of Czech grammar schools ('gymnazium') at preparing their graduates for ad- mission to university programmes, taking into account the relative demand for the programmes, grammar school endowments, and a number of other relevant external factors. The authors argue that a comparison of secondary schools based exclusively on university acceptance rates or other direct meas- ures of study achievements might be misleading, given that such approaches ignore many aspects related to the educational process, such as differences in the level of non-cognitive skills of students, family background, overall living standards in a region, and the specifi c focus of the given secondary school. The authors derive novel indirect measures of grammar school effi ciency that take into account relative demands for university study programmes. Relying on high-quality panel data that cover the period 2000-2004, and using the stochastic frontier methodology commonly applied in effi ciency evaluation in a wide number of sectors, including education, the study also argues that the divergence between selected direct measures of school performance and indirect indicators has been increasing over time.

The Human Factors of Home Health Care

Increases in longevity, a growing elderly population, variation of skill and knowledge among home providers, and a steady migration of medical devices and technologies into the home are placing new demands on home heath care. The paper examines the human factors challenges associated with these converging trends. A growing literature base relevant to home health care is examined, and with the aid of a socio-technical systems model, the paper explores safety and quality concerns to which the converging trends are likely to give rise. The sensory, physical, and cognitive limitations of patients and their caregivers play a key role in the ability of patients to manage home health care needs. Other major components affecting successful home health care management are the nature of health care tasks undertaken, the design features of the physical environment, the medical devices and technologies used, the social and community environments, and distal but relevant external factors that shape the context of care. Home health care stakeholders can avoid foreseeable threats to safety and quality by recognizing that components need to be designed in a way that takes into account their interactions with one another and with the capabilities and limitations of patients and their providers. By examining the major components and interdependencies of the home health care delivery system, a human factors perspective offers insights into ways that safety and quality can be compromised and can help pave the way for new modes of thinking in home health care policy.

Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Efficiency of Czech Grammar Schools

The study focuses on the evaluation of the relative efficiency of Czech grammar schools (gymnazia) in the placement of the schools’ freshmen graduates within university programs, taking into account relative demands for the programs, grammar school endowments and a number of other relevant external factors. We argue that the comparison of secondary schools based exclusively on university acceptance rates or other direct measures of study achievements might be misleading, given that such approaches ignore a lot of aspects related to the educational process, e.g., differences in the level of non-cognitive skills of students, family background, overall living standards in region and a specific focus of a secondary school in question. Relying on high-quality panel data and the stochastic frontier methodology commonly applied in efficiency evaluation within a wide number of sectors including education, the study further argues that the divergence between selected direct measures of school performance and our indirect indicators has been increasing over time.

A "toy" model for operational risk quantification using credibility theory

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challenges in operational risk is combining of these data sources appropriately. In this paper we focus on quantification of the low frequency high impact losses exceeding some high threshold. We suggest a full credibility theory approach to estimate frequency and severity distributions of these losses by taking into account bank internal data, expert opinions and industry data.

Computation, External Factors, and Cognitive Explanations

Computational properties, it is standardly assumed, are to be sharply distinguished from semantic properties. Specifically, while it is standardly assumed that the semantic properties of a cognitive system are externally or non-individualistically individuated, computational properties are supposed to be individualistic and internal. Yet some philosophers (e.g., Tyler Burge) argue that content impacts computation, and further, that environmental factors impact computation. Oron Shagrir has recently argued for these theses in a novel way, and gave them novel interpretations. In this paper I present a conception of computation in cognitive science that takes Shagrir's conception as its starting point, but further develops it in various directions and strengthens it. I argue that the explanatory role of computational properties emerges from the idea that syntactical properties and the relevant external factors presented by cognitive systems compose wide computational properties. I also elaborate upon the notion of content that is in play, and argue that it is contents of the kind that are ascribed by transparent interpretations of content ascriptions that impact computation. This fact enables the thesis that external factors impact computation to rebuff the challenge which concerns the claim that psychology must be individualistic.

The structural modeling of operational risk via Bayesian inference: combining loss data with expert opinions

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank’s internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be based only on historical data but should involve scenario analysis. Historical internal operational risk loss data have limited ability to predict future behaviour moreover, banks do not have enough internal data to estimate low frequency high impact events adequately. Historical external data are difficult to use due to different volumes and other factors. In addition, internal and external data have a survival bias, since typically one does not have data of all collapsed companies. The idea of scenario analysis is to estimate frequency and severity of risk events via expert opinions taking into account bank environment factors with reference to events that have occurred (or may have occurred) in other banks. Scenario analysis is forward looking and can reflect changes in the banking environment. It is important to not only quantify the operational risk capital but also provide incentives to business units to improve their risk management policies, which can be accomplished through scenario analysis. By itself, scenario analysis is very subjective but combined with loss data it is a powerful tool to estimate operational risk losses. Bayesian inference is a statistical technique well suited for combining expert opinions and historical data. In this paper, we present examples of the Bayesian inference methods for operational risk quantification.

Airborne particle deposition onto the ocular surface

Eye irritation is one of the most frequently reported symptoms in relation to working in office-like environments. So far, no consistent association has been found between concentration of airborne particles and prevalence of eye irritation. External physical factors not hitherto considered could have a large influence on particle deposition velocity onto the ocular surface. This may have obscured the role airborne particles play. Based on previously published semi-empirical models, the paper describes the influence of turbulence, gravitational settling, electrical fields, and thermophoresis on deposition velocity. A probabilistic approach was used to determine percentile ranges in deposition velocity when the magnitude of these parameters varied within typical ranges. The calculations suggest that differences in external factors other than particle size may cause differences in the deposition velocity of one order of magnitude or more. Studies trying to find associations between airborne particle concentration levels and eye irritation should take into consideration the influence of external physical factors on deposition velocity. External physical factors other than concentration are likely to have a large influence on the deposition rate of airborne particles onto the ocular surface. Thus, future studies on associations between airborne particle levels and eye symptoms should only be conducted if particle concentration measurements are suitably size resolved. Other relevant external physical factors should also be assessed and included in a multivariate analysis of exposure-response associations.

Image or substance? Candidate or campaign? A case study of a presidential election campaign in Finland

This study examined reasons why Elisabeth Rehn – labelled by the media as the queen of the polls – lost her lead position a month before the presidential election. Rehn’s campaign had two approaches – traditional and marketing oriented. On one hand it represented a voter‐driven campaign with various non‐political and political professionals at its disposal but on the other hand the candidate was closer to the traditional party‐driven or ideology‐driven concept holding to traditional political themes. The main internal weaknesses of Rehn’s campaign were four factors: the weakness of the (civic) organisation, the lack of resources, the candidate’s credibility problems and the wrong themes. The relevant external factors were: the line‐up of the candidates with two strong right‐wing female candidates and overwhelming resources of the competitive organisations. The study provides evidence that most of the theoretical factors based on previous research to be relevant also in this campaign and emphasises the meaning of the candidate’s credibility. The indicators of the credibility were her competence and appearance (external credibility), and personality and commitment (internal credibility) even though in the very beginning the candidate was evaluated by the campaign workers as the most competent and experienced candidate. The polls and the media were considered to be factors that strengthened the result more than created it.

Exploring the Application and Acceptance of Group Support Systems in Africa

:Cross-cultural GSS field studies are scarce. Although the state of knowledge and theory development in this area warrants a focus on descriptive field explorations, most cross-cultural GSS research has taken place in laboratory environments. The study reported here represents the first detailed descriptive field study ofGSS application in Africa. A grounded theory approach was used to collect and analyze data on eleven projects in which GSS meetings were organized in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania. From the data emerged a model of GSS acceptance in the cultures investigated that extends the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in terms of a specification of a number of relevant external factors. These factors include the endorsement of top management, computer literacy, oral communication preference, referent power, and satisfaction with use. Furthermore, the findings suggest that there is potential for applying GSS in Africa to support capacity-building efforts, which tops the agenda of international development agencies.