Sex Offender Recidivism Research Articles

Inevitable recidivism—The origin and centrality of an urban legend

This paper examines the pervasive conviction that sex offenders – particularly child molesters – will continue to re-offend. This belief in inevitable recidivism turns out to be absolutely essential to both the justification for, and the structure of, the sexually violent predator laws. When actual evidence of sex offender recidivism is examined, however, a huge gap exists between what is assumed and what the data actually show because most sex offenders do not in fact re-offend. Thus there is a galaxy of sexually violent predator laws and an entire branch of Supreme Court jurisprudence that is founded upon a demonstrable urban legend.

Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism

While sex offender registration laws with notification provisions are now over a decade old, little is known about how these policies influence the prevention of sex offending. Very few studies have considered the impact of notification on sex offender recidivism or the effect of these laws on sex crimes, generally. This study considers the effectiveness of offender tracking and declaration at the state level through evaluation of current sex offender laws in Arkansas. Using a quasi‐experimental regression‐discontinuity design, this research evaluated the recidivism of the first three waves of sex offenders registered in the state (1997–1999) vs. a comparison group of sex offenders from a decade earlier (1987–1989). Findings indicate there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of recidivism. Policy implications are discussed.

Rape Treatment: An Overview of Current Knowledge

AbstractSexual offending is frequently seen by the lay person as being a result of an innate abnormality that is relatively fixed and unchangeable. Accordingly, sexual offenders are seen as more likely to recidivate than other types of offenders. In fact, this is not the case, and most sexual offenders do not re-offend. Also, contemporary research has shown that treatment programs driven by cognitive behaviour therapy significantly reduce rates of sexual offender recidivism. Nevertheless, while there has been a great deal of research on the treatment of child sexual offenders, the treatment of rapists has received comparatively less attention. Thus, the main aim of this article is to summarise current knowledge of sexual offender treatment, paying specific attention to the needs of rapists. In particular, we pay attention to the content of sexual offender treatment programs, and the relevance of this content to rape. We also discuss therapeutic issues of relevance for rapist treatment that are typically ignored or underestimated in the research literature. Finally, based upon our analysis of the literature, we present a schematic overview of rape treatment and identify important areas for further research.

Pedophilia: An Evaluation of Diagnostic and Risk Prediction Methods

One hundred thirty child sexual abusers were diagnosed using each of following four methods: (a) phallometric testing, (b) strict application of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision [DSM-IV-TR]) criteria, (c) Rapid Risk Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) scores, and (d) "expert" diagnoses rendered by a seasoned clinician. Comparative utility and intermethod consistency of these methods are reported, along with recidivism data indicating predictive validity for risk management. Results suggest that inconsistency exists in diagnosing pedophilia, leading to diminished accuracy in risk assessment. Although the RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR methods were significantly correlated with expert ratings, RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR were unrelated to each other. Deviant arousal was not associated with any of the other methods. Only the expert ratings and RRASOR scores were predictive of sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that expert diagnosis did not add to prediction of sexual offence recidivism over and above RRASOR alone. Findings are discussed within a context of encouragement of clinical consistency and evidence-based practice regarding treatment and risk management of those who sexually abuse children.

An Examination of Two Sexual Recidivism Risk Measures in Adolescent Offenders

The present study explored the predictive validity of two measures designed to assess risk for sexual recidivism in adolescent sexual offenders (ASO), the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol—II and the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism, in the context of an antisociality-based typology of adolescent sexual offenders. The authors distinguished between adolescent sexual offenders with a history of general offending (delinquent ASO) and adolescent sexual offenders without a history of general offending (sex offense—only ASO). They found differential predictive accuracy of risk measures according to offender type: Both instruments predicted sexual recidivism in the sex offense—only ASO group (large effect sizes), whereas in the delinquent ASO group, the measures did not predict sexual recidivism beyond chance levels. Risk assessment in the context of an antisociality-based sex offender typology is discussed.

Recidivism Among Female Child Molesters

During recent years, research about female sexual offender recidivism rates using official criminal justice records has increased. Although informative, rearrest or conviction rates may be insufficient for this population. This study examines two potential outcome measures for accurately studying recidivism among 57 female sexual offenders; a criminal recidivism measure based on formal legal charges and a reported recidivism measure based on child welfare reports. Based on the criminal recidivism outcome measure, 10(17.5%) women were charged for a subsequent sexual crime. The broader reported recidivism measure identified six additional women with subsequent contact with police or child welfare agencies for sexually inappropriate behaviors. There were no significant differences found between the 41 nonrecidivists and the 16 recidivists. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification On Sex-Offending Trajectories

General public sentiment and anecdotal evidence suggests that sex offenders are highly recidivistic. Furthermore, these similar beliefs have influenced a series of recent policy and legislative changes targeting sex offenders. This study examined the impact of sex offender registration and notification (SORN) on sex offender recidivism among a cohort of Iowa prisoners released prior to SORN and a cohort of Iowa prisoners released post-SORN. Results from semiparametric group-based trajectory models demonstrated that both sex offender samples had similar trajectory groups, that is, one group of nonrecidivist sex offenders, another group of very low-rate sex recidivists, and a small high-rate group of sex recidivists. Study limitations and implications for sex offender registration and community notification systems are also discussed.

The Effects of Failure to Register on Sex Offender Recidivism

Failure to register (FTR) as a predatory offender recently supplanted criminal sexual conduct as the most common recidivism offense for sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons. To date, however, little is known about FTR. The authors attempted to address this gap by examining recidivism outcomes among inmates required to register as predatory offenders who were released from Minnesota prisons between 2000 and 2004. In particular, they analyzed whether an FTR offense (or history of any FTR offense) had a significant impact on sexual, general, and FTR recidivism. To minimize observed differences between FTR and non-FTR offenders, propensity score matching was used to create the non-FTR comparison group. Results from the Cox regression models indicate that an FTR offense did not have a significant effect on either sexual or general recidivism. In contrast, the findings suggested that an FTR conviction significantly increased the risk of recidivism for another FTR offense. Moreover, the results indicated that offenders with at least a GED or high school diploma at the time of release had a significantly reduced risk of FTR recidivism.

Comparing Nonviolent, Other-Violent, and Domestic Batterer Sex Offenders

This study compared an understudied subgroup of sex offenders, those who had arrests for nonsexual domestic violence ( n = 174), with nonviolent sex offenders ( n = 467) and sex offenders arrested for nonsexual violent crimes against nonfamily members ( n = 205). The domestic batterer subgroup had significantly higher sexual and general recidivism within the first 7 years after supervision. The four standardized risk assessment scales, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism, Static-99, Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment—Minimum Version, and Static-2002, showed significant and similar performance for predicting the nonviolent subgroup’s sexual recidivism after supervision, but these scales had less predictive accuracy for the other two subgroups. Two risk factors, general criminality and self-reported use of substances before committing sex crimes, had different predictive accuracy on sexual recidivism across these three subgroups. Implications for improving risk assessment and supervision of sex offenders are discussed.

Indirect Measures of Sexual Interest in Child Sex Offenders

Although there is strong meta-analytical evidence that deviant sexual interest in children is a major risk factor for recidivism in child sex offenders, the assessment of deviant sexual interest with self-report or phallometric measures is problematic. As an alternative approach for assessment, the Explicit and Implicit Sexual Interest Profile (EISIP) is introduced. It features direct self-report and indirect latency-based measures (Implicit Association Tests [IATs] and viewing time measures) of sexual interest in adults and children. The reliability and validity of the EISIP was investigated using a selected sample of child sex offenders ( n = 38) and offender ( n = 37) and nonoffender ( n = 38) controls. Among the indirect measures, viewing time measures showed higher reliability and convergent and criterion validity than the IATs. However, the IATs independently accounted for criterion variance in multivariate analyses. The combined indirect measures showed good discriminative validity between child sex offenders and controls.

Reducing Recidivism in Adolescent Sexual Offenders by Focusing on Community Reintegration

The effect residential treatment outcomes have on recidivism rates for children and adolescents lack attention in the research literature. More importantly, literature is scant as it pertains to community reintegration for adolescent sexual offenders who are discharged from residential treatment programs to community based treatment services. This reintegration process will further build self-esteem and a sense of belonging, thus reducing the likelihood of adolescent sexual offenders isolating from their peer group, becoming frustrated with finding their place in society, and consequently relying on criminal behaviors as a social outlet. Many of the young male adolescent sexual offenders report feeling isolated from their peer group; most internalized phobias and feelings associated with societal labels and stereotypes about individuals who commit sexual crimes. Other important information collected during the qualitative interview process included the adolescent feelings associated with family conflict. Much of the research in reference to adolescent sexual offenders suggests their victims are often family members, siblings, relatives, family friends, and neighbors. This article aims to add the significant issue of treatment interventions for adolescent sexual offenders to the literature base as well as offer helpful strategies to reduce recidivism rates in this population of youth offenders. New findings and outcomes suggest that transition of this unique population should begin at the time of admission into residential treatment as part of discharge planning. This innovative way of thinking and doing will allow the young offenders' time to make the difficult adjustment while receiving intensive residential base intervention services.

PW01-117 - Recidivism of internet sex offenders - an epidemiologic study on more than 4600 offenders in Switzerland

Internet sex offending is a rather new class of criminal acts and therefore little is known about previous convictions, recidivsm and especially correlation with hands-on sexual offences. Previous studies on small samples reported an insignificant correlation between previous convictions for child pornography and later contact sex offences on the one hand and an important role of pornography as a risk factor for sexual recidivsm of convicted sexual offenders. As an increasing number of defendants accused of child pornography is assigned for forensic risk assessment, better evidence and understanding of the role and the amount of the influence of child pornography on later offending is most urgently needed.We therefore explore these correlations by means of the complete set of all offenders convicted of illegal pornography in the Swiss federal crime registry at the time of november 2008. The analysis of 4658 criminal records reveal that 7.9% of the internet sex offenders were at the same time convicted of child abuse. The child molesters with 20.7% recidivated more frequently in general, compared to 9.8% of the offenders who were not convicted of a contact offence. Furthermore, the contact offenders with 11.4% were significant more likely to reoffend in terms of illegal pornography and sexual acts involving children with 6.0%.We will present all recidivism rates and our conclusions at the conference.

Sex Offender Recidivism

There have been major shifts in the perception of sex offender recidivism over the past 30 years and increased interest in public and professional spheres. However, the discourses of the public and the professionals are becoming increasingly discrepant. The media are pivotal in demonizing all sex offenders and focusing on punitiveness. Media myths have developed that mask professional advances. A paradigm shift is needed from the current emphasis on behavioral science research toward a fuller recognition of system changes and processual questions. History instructs that only a minority of sex offenders are really dangerous. Nevertheless, sex offending is a pervasive problem, and criminal justice solutions alone will not be enough. Indeed, current policies to prevent or address sexual offending have largely failed. Social justice solutions with compassion as an ingredient need to be brought more to the fore.

Construct Validity of the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender Version for Measuring Sexual Deviance

Previous studies have identified sexual deviance as a particularly strong predictor of sexual recidivism in sex offenders. The present study examined the construct validity (i.e., convergent and discriminant validity) of the three dynamic factor domains (Sexual Deviance, Criminality, Treatment Responsivity) of the Violence Risk Scale- Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) as well as the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI; for comparison purposes) with respect to phallometric measures of sexual deviance. VRS-SO and phallometric data were collected from 124 federally incarcerated sex offenders from a maximum security forensic psychiatric facility. The Sexual Deviance factor and SSPI were positively correlated to varying degrees with computed arousal indexes (Percent Full Erection, difference scores) for child stimuli but were not significantly correlated with nondeviant arousal, supporting the convergent and discriminant validity of these measures, respectively. Convergent validity also appeared stronger for sex offender subtypes with child victims. Criminality and Treatment Responsivity did not correlate with male stimuli, although they were positively correlated with arousal to female profiles. The VRS-SO Sexual Deviance factor and some phallometric indexes of deviant arousal (e.g., female children) were predictive of sexual recidivism whereas the SSPI was not. The pattern of findings across analyses broadly supports the construct validity of the VRS-SO in assessing sexual deviance.

La contribution des arbres de classification et de régression dans la prédiction de la récidive chez les délinquants sexuels adultes

Clinicians have access to several risk assessment instruments to evaluate the risk or recidivism in sexual offenders. Nevertheless, we seem to have attained a ceiling in the predictive validity of these instruments with the traditional techniques of items agglomeration. In this study, we offer a different combination of predictors with the classification and regression trees, and it, by taking into account the type of sexual offenders. The classification trees are constructed from predictors contained in seven actuarial instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, STATIC-99, STATIC-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R). In general, the classification trees have a higher predictive accuracy than the actuarial instruments and point out that it's not the same predictors that should be considered according to the type of offenders and the type of recidivism. Furthermore, classification trees identify correctly more recidivists than the best actuarial tool. In spite of the contribution of this approach, other types of predictors should also be considered to augment predictive accuracy: dynamic predictors, protective predictors as well as measurements based on theories like those on attachment styles (Marshall, D. R., Barbaree, H. E., 1990. An integrated theory of the etiology of sexual offending. In: Marshall, W. L., Laws, D. R. L., Barbaree, H.E. (Eds.), Handbook of sexual assault. New York: Plenum Press, pp. 257-275.) and cognitive distortions (Ward, T., Keenan, T., Hudson, S. M., 2000. Understanding cognitive, affective, and intimacy deficits in sexual offenders: a developmental perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 5, 41–62.).

Comparison of Measures of Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders

Data for both sexual and violent recidivism for the Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM 2000), Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), and Static-2002 are reported for 419 released sexual offenders assessed at the Regional Treatment Centre Sexual Offender Treatment Program. Data are analyzed by offender type as well as the group as a whole. Overall, the Static-2002 performed best for both outcomes, although differences between measures were not significant. The one exception to this was the RRASOR, which overall performed poorly. For rapists, the Static-2002 performed best for sexual recidivism, and the Risk Matrix 2000 performed best for violent recidivism. None of the measures performed well in predicting recidivism for child molesters. The components of the Static-2002 were examined in a regression analysis predicting sexual recidivism. Persistence of Sexual Offending and Age at Release were the only significant predictors for the group as a whole and for rapists. For child molesters, only the Deviant Sexual Interests component was significant. Results are discussed in terms of the current debate concerning age and risk for reoffence.

Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism?

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between failure to register (FTR) as a sex offender and subsequent recidivism (N = 2,970). No significant differences were found between the sexual recidivism rates of those who failed to register and compliant registrants (11% vs. 9%, respectively). There was no significant difference in the proportion of sexual recidivists and nonrecidivists with registration violations (12% vs. 10%, respectively). FTR did not predict sexual recidivism, and survival analyses revealed no significant difference in time to recidivism when comparing those who failed to register (2.9 years) with compliant registrants (2.8 years). Results fail to support the supposition that sexual offenders who fail to register are more sexually dangerous than those who comply with registration requirements. The punitive emphasis on registration enforcement may not be justified and might divert limited resources away from strategies that would better facilitate public protection from sexual violence.

The Impact of Prison-Based Treatment on Sex Offender Recidivism

Using a retrospective quasi-experimental design, this study evaluates the effectiveness of prison-based treatment by examining recidivism outcomes among 2,040 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 1990 and 2003 (average follow-up period of 9.3 years). To reduce observed selection bias, the authors used propensity score matching to create a comparison group of 1,020 untreated sex offenders who were not significantly different from the 1,020 treated offenders. In addition, intent-to-treat analyses and the Rosenbaum bounds method were used to test the sensitivity of the findings to treatment refuser and unobserved selection bias. Results from the Cox regression analyses revealed that participating in treatment significantly reduced the hazard ratio for rearrest by 27% for sexual recidivism, 18% for violent recidivism, and 12% for general recidivism. These findings are consistent with the growing body of research supporting the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral treatment for sex offenders.

A time‐series analysis on the impact of sex offender registration and community notification laws on plea bargaining rates

Although recent research has investigated the impact registration and community notification laws have on sex offender recidivism, few studies to date have examined how these laws have impacted the criminal justice system. Specifically, the enactment of registration and community notification laws may have resulted in an increase in plea bargain agreements, as prosecutors now have a tool to induce pleas, and alleged offenders may be more willing to accept the plea option to avoid becoming a registered sex offender. To test this hypothesis, 21 years of arrest and conviction data (10 years prior to the enactment of registration and 11 years post the enactment) were obtained from New York State. Results of the ARIMA analyses indicated that the enactment of registration and community notification laws did not impact rates of plea bargaining.

Aging Versus Stable Enduring Traits as Explanatory Constructs in Sex Offender Recidivism

This study investigates whether sex offenders' age at release from custody affects their likelihood of reoffending. The participants were 468 men with a mean follow-up (time at risk) of just more than 5 years after release. Items from the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism, the Static-99, and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Test—Revised were coded. Results show that the predictive ability of items tapping antisocial behavior is inflated by their association with age at release, whereas the predictive ability of items tapping sexual deviance is diminished by that association. An assessment instrument comprising an age-corrected antisocial behavior scale, an age-corrected sexual deviance scale, and an age at release scale predicted recidivism as well as the best existing actuarial instruments. Cox regression analysis shows that age at release provided unique and significant predictive ability over and above age-corrected antisocial behavior and age-corrected sexual deviance combined.