Recent Weather Research Articles

Impact of weather changes on air quality and related mortality in Spain over a 25 year period [1993–2017

Climate change is a major public health concern. In addition to its direct impacts on temperature patterns and extreme weather events, climate change affects public health indirectly through its influence on air quality. Pollution trends are not only affected by emissions changes but also by weather changes. In this paper we analyze air quality trends in Spain of important air pollutants (C6H6, CO, NO2, NOx, O3, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2) recorded during the last 25 years, from 1993 to 2017. We found substantial reductions in ambient concentration levels for all the pollutants studied except for O3. To assess the influence of recent weather changes on air quality trends we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) using nonparametric smoothing; with and without adjusting for weather parameters including temperature, wind speed, humidity and precipitation frequency. The difference of annual slopes estimated by the models without and with adjusting for these meteorological variables represents the impact of weather changes on pollutant trends, i.e. the ‘weather penalty’. The analyses were seasonally and geographically stratified to account for temporal and regional differences across Spain. The results were meta-analyzed to estimate weather penalties on ambient concentration trends at a national level as well as the impact on mortality for the most relevant pollutants. We found significant penalties for most pollutants, implying that air quality would have improved even more during our study period if weather conditions had remained constant. The largest weather influences were found for PM10, with seasonal penalties up to 22 μg⋅m−3 accumulated over the 25-year period in some regions. The national meta-analysis shows penalties of 0.060 μg⋅m−3 per year (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.004, 0.116) in cold months and 0.127 μg⋅m−3 per year (95% CI: 0.089, 0.164) in warm months. Penalties of this magnitude would correspond to 129 annual deaths (95% CI: 25, 233), i.e. approximately 3200 deaths over the 25-year period in Spain. According to our results, the health benefits of recent emission abatements for this pollutant in Spain would have been up to 10% greater if weather conditions had remained constant during the last 25 years.

Twenty‐Five Years of Lower Tropospheric Ozone Observations in Tropical East Asia: The Influence of Emissions and Weather Patterns

AbstractTropospheric ozone affects the Earth's radiative balance, oxidative capacity, and air quality, yet the long‐term ozone trend in East Asia and its driver(s) remain poorly understood. Here we present ozone measurements obtained during 1994–2018 on China's southern coast. The measurement location intercepts China's outflow most of the time and the inflow of tropical maritime air during summer. We found an overall increase in the ozone level (0.35 ppbv/year), and the increase occurred mainly during the first half of the 25‐year period but appeared to level off in recent years in Chinese outflow. Large ozone increase (~20% per decade) was found in the maritime air. Model simulations show that recent weather conditions have reduced maritime ozone, counteracting the impact of the growing Southeast Asia's emissions. Our results fill the gap in the long‐term ozone trend in Asia and highlight the complex interaction of weather and emissions in driving the ozone change.

The impact of climate change on thermal climate zones and residential energy efficiency designs during the past decades in China

ABSTRACT In this paper, the impact of climate change on thermal climate zones was reported by using more recent weather data published by the China’s National Climate Center. The impact of these changes on current building energy standards was also investigated. To quantitatively analyse the potential impact of these changes on building energy consumption, building energy simulation techniques were used. This study has found that 27 of the 200 cities investigated in this analysis are assigned to new thermal climate zones, and most of these cities have shifted into a warmer climate zone. Three cities shift into uncategorized zone. According to the building energy standards for residential buildings, the maximum U-factor allowed for building envelope will increase and overall shading coefficient allowed for windows will decrease when the city is reassigned into a warmer zone. The simulation results show that it will generally have an adverse effect on building energy savings for residential buildings. The outcomes of this study reveal that current thermal climate zones cannot provide an adequate instruction for building energy efficiency and updating building energy standards, and thermal climate zones is necessary in future.

Comparative bioclimatic approach for comfort and passive heating and cooling strategies in Algeria

The energy consumption and thermal comfort in buildings are heavily affected by weather conditions. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze the bioclimatic potential of Algerian climate zones. This analysis was made based on eight representative locations using recent weather datasets (2003–2017). The thermal comfort and passive design potential analysis were based on a psychometric chart applying the adaptive comfort model ASHRAE 55–2017. In addition, an evaluation of the bioclimatic potential was conducted using simulations of a monitored and calibrated residential building model in Algeria using EnergyPlus. The building model has been tested in eight previously selected locations. The heating and cooling energy load results were calculated for each climatic zone and compared. The results allow architects and urban planners to better understand the climate and provide practical design guidance.

Diversity of durian (Durio zibethinus L.) from Nonthaburi, Thailand based on morpho-palatability characteristics and simple sequence repeat markers

Durian is a high-value, tropical fruit well known for its unique, pungent smell and sweet and creamy flesh. Nonthaburi province in central Thailand has been known as a source of top-quality durian cultivars, especially Mon Thong. However, with the recent urbanization and frequent severe weather conditions, these valuable local cultivars are disappearing at an alarming rate. Therefore, there is an urgent need for morpho-palatability as well as molecular information in order to correctly identify and characterize each cultivar. This study was the first to report durian diversity in Thailand using both morpho-palatability characteristics and molecular marker analysis. Morpho-palatability diversity was assessed in 31 cultivars using a modified descriptor for durian that measured 22 qualitative traits and 33 quantitative traits from the leaves, flowers and fruits. In addition, 24 cultivars were used for genetic diversity analysis based on simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. The diversity of durian cultivars could be seen from the morphometric analysis. As expected, several cultivars showed unique characters that could be used for future breeding purposes.It was also found that certain characters were more informative than others at characterizing durian cultivars, which could lead to an improvement of cultivar identification. SSR marker profiles were considerably informative in distinguishing cultivars. Molecular data analysis showed that most cultivars were clustered together, with only a few in small, separate clusters. The results from this study should help to improve durian cultivar conservation and breeding for better quality.

Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Seasonal Calendars in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study from China

A seasonal calendar, based on traditional knowledge of ecological indicators, seasonal variations and associated activities, can provide a baseline for understanding the practices of indigenous along with climatic variation. This paper investigates the ethno-ecological knowledge of indigenous people in Taxkorgan regarding the use of ecological cues to conduct seasonal activities that harmonize with climatic variations. Meteorological data from the nearest station was used to understand climatic variations and develop indices. The results revealed that indigenous elders still adopt traditional methods to decide the time of various annual activities observing and using seasonal cues, such as the height and color of grass, the arriving of migratory birds and phenological observations. Moreover, same or diverse indicators were used at settlements located in different elevations. The analysis revealed that the region was recently getting warmer and wetter compared to previous decades, and local perceptions were matched with climatic recordings. Local inhabitants already practiced earlier plantation of crops (e.g., wheat) in recent years. Climatic indices calculated revealed and validated recent weather condition can support earlier plantation of crops. Hence, the strong forecasting system using meteorological evidence to support existing local knowledge on ecological indicators and adjust seasonal calendars can improve indigenous people’s abilities to cope with climate risks. Furthermore, this can support in developing adaptation schemes that respond to community needs. The approaches and findings can be used to facilitate the management of these natural resource based on the adaptive framework and to create data that can be tested in subsequent studies.

최근 기상데이터를 반영한 냉난방 설계용 외기 온습도의 재산정

최근 기상데이터를 반영한 냉난방 설계용 외기 온습도의 재산정

Optimizing the bioenergy water footprint by selecting SRC willow canopy phenotypes: regional scenario simulations.

Background and AimsBioenergy is central for the future energy mix to mitigate climate change impacts; however, its intricate link with the water cycle calls for an evaluation of the carbon–water nexus in biomass production. The great challenge is to optimize trade-offs between carbon harvest and water use by choosing cultivars that combine low water use with high productivity.MethodsRegional scenarios were simulated over a range of willow genotype × environment interactions for the major UK soil × climate variations with the process-based model LUCASS. Soil available water capacity (SAWC) ranged from 51 to 251 mm and weather represented the north-west (wet, cool), north-east (dry, cool), south-west (wet, warm) and south-east (dry, warm) of the UK. Scenario simulations were evaluated for small/open narrow-leaf (NL) versus large/closed broad-leaf (BL) willow canopy phenotypes using baseline (1965–89) and warmer recent (1990–2014) weather data.Key ResultsThe low productivity under baseline climate in the north could be compensated by choosing BL cultivars (e.g. ‘Endurance’). Recent warmer climate increased average productivity by 0.5–2.5 t ha−1, especially in the north. The modern NL cultivar ‘Resolution’ had the smallest and most efficient water use. On marginal soils (SAWC <100 mm), yields remained below an economic threshold of 9 t ha−1 more frequently under baseline than recent climate. In the drought-prone south-east, ‘Endurance’ yielded less than ‘Resolution’, which consumed on average 17 mm year−1 less water. Assuming a planting area of 10 000 ha, in droughty years between 1.3 and 4.5 × 106 m3 of water could be saved, with a small yield penalty, for ‘Resolution’.ConclusionsWith an increase in air temperature and occasional water scarcities expected with climate change, high-yielding NL cultivars should be the preferred choice for sustainable use of marginal lands and reduced competition with agricultural food crops.

From weather to environmental forecasts

Weather In recent decades, weather and storm forecasting has improved rapidly; useful weather forecasts now reach 9 to 10 days into the future. In a Perspective, Alley et al. explain the reasons for these advances and argue that weather forecasting has not yet reached its limit. These forecasting skills are also helping to improve environmental forecasts of, for example, sea ice loss, coastal storm surge, wildfire activity, and animal behavior, with many benefits for society. Further advances in all these areas are likely if data collection efforts are maintained and improved and are fully assimilated into models. However, investments are needed to ensure that these advances are realized, especially in developing countries. Science , this issue p. [342][1] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aav7274

How will climate alter efficiency objectives? Simulated impact of using recent versus historic european weather data for the cost-optimal design of nearly zero energy buildings (NZEBs)

Achieving “nearly zero energy buildings” (NZEB) has been established as a vital objective over the next decade within the European Union (EU) [1,2]. Previous work has shown that a series of very cost effective thermal efficiency measures, equipment, appliance and renewable energy choices are available across climates to reach the NZEB objective. Resulting detailed energy and economic optimization findings have been obtained and published [3,4]. One area that has just begun to be explored, however, is how selection of weather files and their application against coming climate change can influence outcomes from energy optimization procedures.

The usefulness of alos-palsar dem data for drainage extraction in semi-arid environments in The Iishana sub-basin

Study regionThe study area is the Iishana sub-basin located in north-central Namibia. The basin is characterised by low-lying interconnected ephemeral drainage networks locally known as Iishana. In the past decade, the basin has experienced frequent droughts and flooding events due to recent weather anomalies possibly enhanced by the sprawling urban development. Study focusAlthough extensive studies have been conducted on water availability in the basin, no attempts have been made to update existing hydrological maps which provide limited information on the impacts of geo-hydrological dynamics in the area. The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of the Advanced Land Observing Satellite Digital Elevation Model (ALOS DEM) for drainage network extraction. ArcHydro tools were used for drainage feature extraction. Validation of extracted networks was based on field observations and delineated networks from earth observation data and Normalized Difference Wetness Index (NDWI). The accuracy of extracted drainage networks was assessed through visual observation of data overlay and the coefficient of line correspondence (CLC). New hydrological insightsThe resulting drainage networks will be used to update the current hydrographic map of the area which will aid in the development of flood and drought mitigating measures for environmental management. The CLC computed metric obtained a 0.91 match between extracted and delineated drainage networks. The results show that ALOS DEM is capable of extracting drainage networks within the Iishana sub-basin.

Adjustment of Irrigation Schedules as a Strategy to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Cyprus

The study aimed at investigating eventual deviations from typical recommendations of irrigation water application to crops in Cyprus given the undeniable changes in recent weather conditions. It focused on the seasonal or monthly changes in crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and net irrigation requirements (NIR) of a number of permanent and annual crops over two consecutive overlapping periods (1976–2000 and 1990–2014). While the differences in the seasonal ETc and NIR estimates were not statistically significant between the studied periods, differences were identified via a month-by-month comparison. In March, the water demands of crops appeared to be significantly greater during the recent past in relation to 1976–2000, while for NIR, March showed statistically significant increases and September showed significant decreases. Consequently, the adjustment of irrigation schedules to climate change by farmers should not rely on annual trends as an eventual mismatch of monthly crop water needs with irrigation water supply might affect the critical growth stages of crops with a disproportionately greater negative impact on yields and quality. The clear increase in irrigation needs in March coincides with the most sensitive growth stage of irrigated potato crops in Cyprus. Therefore, the results may serve as a useful tool for current and future adaptation measures.

Testing the Influence of Recent Weather on Perceptions of Personal Experience with Climate Change and Extreme Weather in New York State

Abstract The general public’s perceptions of climate change may be shaped by local climate impacts through the mechanism of experiential processing. Although climate change is a long-term global trend, individuals personally experience it as weather from moment to moment. This study assesses how New York State adults’ overall perceptions of their personal experiences with the effects of climate change and extreme weather (surveyed in early 2014) are related to recent weather conditions. This research is unique in that it examines multiple types of weather: temperature and precipitation, over 1 day or 1 week, quantified both as relative and nonrelative measures. Respondents’ perceptions that they had personally experienced climate change or extreme weather significantly increased with warmer relative (percentage of normal) minimum temperatures on the day of the study. Maximum temperatures and total precipitation levels were not significant predictors of perceptions of personal experience, either on the day of the study or over the preceding week. Experiential processing had a smaller effect on perceptions than motivated reasoning, the influence of preexisting ideas. Respondents who believed that climate change was happening agreed more that they had personally experienced it or extreme weather, and this effect increased for individuals who thought that climate change was anthropogenic, as opposed to naturally caused. Of the sociodemographic factors assessed here, political party, gender, and region were significant predictors, while age and education were not.

Temporal Interpolation of Gridded Solar Radiation Data for Evaluation of PV Fluctuations

As the solar photovoltaic systems (PV) are massively installed into power system on an urban scale, short-term (about 10 seconds) fluctuations of PV output can negatively effect on the power system. Battery storage systems are capable of alleviating the effect of PV fluctuations; power flow simulation of such systems is also meaningful to discuss the practical operation and required capacity of those storages. Recent weather satellites provide quasi real time distribution data of solar radiation which is quite suitable for the power flow simulation. However, they do not equip enough temporal resolution to observe the short-term fluctuations of radiation. This paper proposes a temporal interpolation method for the radiation data derived from weather satellite, and aims to obtain plausible fluctuations in radiation values with high temporal resolution. The proposed method is mainly composed of two steps. The first step is an estimation of cloud movements. An object tracking technique is used to obtain plausible cloud movements by considering characteristics of clouds. The second step is an interpolation based on the estimated cloud movements. The experimental results show that the proposed method can produce more plausible radiation values than the other naive methods. We also compared radiation data collected by a satellite and those collected by ground measurement, and discuss the usefulness of interpolated radiation values for the power flow simulation.

Effect of applied weather data sets in simulation of building energy demands: Comparison of design years with recent weather data

Building energy demands in long-term studies are mostly calculated using the averaged weather data sets, reflecting the changes in environmental conditions over time, thus the different energy consumption each year. This paper reviews and discusses the coupled effects of warming trend in global mean surface temperatures, application of different design weather datasets, and utilization of different methods of building energy assessment on the calculated energy demands. The possible inaccuracies of building energy analyses caused by those three factors are investigated on the example of a residential house in Central Europe. For that purpose eight different weather data sets for Prague, Czech Republic are selected and simulations in two different scales are performed. The analysis of the effect of recent weather data is performed by an improved methodology. First, the simulation brings an increased precision as an advanced hygrothermal model is used for energy calculations. Second, the building performance is assessed, contrary to the Czech national standards, using both heating and cooling energy demands. The simulation results confirm the warming trend in the time period of 2013–2017 as the average heating demands are 3.95% lower and the average cooling demands 3.96% higher in a comparison with the Test Reference Year. In the extreme years, a 12–15% decrease of energy consumed for heating and up to 20% increase of energy necessary for cooling is found. This is in accordance with the presumed warming trend that has been widely discussed during the last few decades. Furthermore, the presented results verify the critical and positive design weather years as suitable for application in the simulation of heating and cooling energy demands in the Czech Republic.

Daily Light Integral: A Research Review and High-resolution Maps of the United States

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the National Solar Radiation Database to provide accessible solar radiation data to the research community for various uses. Previously, we created a series of monthly daily light integral (DLI) maps to provide a tool for horticulturists to estimate the potential growth and flowering responses for various plants throughout the year. The original DLI maps were based on solar radiation data from 239 sites recorded from 1961 to 1990. The DLI maps presented in this article were created from an updated database that included data from 1998 to 2009. This database provides higher resolution data modeled from satellite images of cloud cover. The data are presented in pixels with each pixel representing 100 km2 of land across the lower 48 United States and Hawaii, whereas the Alaska data are 1600 km2 pixels. The database provided global horizontal irradiance data that were converted to DLI (mol·m−2·d−1) using the conversion factor of 0.007265 mol (400–700 nm)·Wh−1 (400–2700 nm), which assumes that 45% of the solar radiation is in the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400–700 nm) region and 4.48 μmol·J−1 is the conversion from radiometric to quantum units. The updated DLI maps provide more geographically precise data reflecting recent weather patterns. We present a comprehensive review of recent research exploring the growth and flowering responses of horticultural crops to DLI.

Phenology of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) in the Central Appalachian Mountains, USA

The ability to predict key phenological stages of insect pests is of prime importance in sampling and management programs. Hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Annand) (Hemiptera: Adelgidae), is a non-native invasive pest of eastern and Carolina hemlock that is currently expanding its range westward through the central Appalachian region. We conducted intensive sampling of A. tsugae across four sites in West Virginia and western Maryland from March 2013 to May 2014, and developed a degree-day model (minimum temperature threshold of 4°C) to predict the temporal distribution of progrediens eggs, progrediens egg hatch, newly hatched sistens, and settled first-instar sistens. We then linked degree-day predictions to recent weather data collected from our study region from 2012 to 2016 to provide a range of calendar days over which these key phenological events occur. The initial occurrence of progrediens eggs and progrediens egg hatch is predicted to occur at 209 (mean date of 19 April) and 346 (mean date of 8 May) degree days, respectively. The initial occurrence of newly hatched sistens and settled first-instar sistens is predicted to occur at 852 (mean date of 19 June) and 1010 (mean date of 30 June) degree days, respectively. Because our study region represents a region in which A. tsugae continues to spread, this information should be useful in optimizing sampling programs and the timing of control tactics in the central Appalachian region.

Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness

Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961–2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961–1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.

Local variations in gabion structures

Gabion structures are widely used for force protection as they enable locally available material to be used, reducing logistical expense. The soil fill within these structures provides the blast and ballistic resistance; hence, any localised variation in the contained soil can potentially lead to reductions in protective capability. Specifically, built gabion structures were monitored in internal and external environments to assess the variation of soil moisture content and density over a full year and with changing weather conditions. The gabions were filled with fine sand according to manufacturer’s instructions. Internal and external moisture content readings were recorded at regular intervals, and a continuously monitoring weather station was installed to collect comparative data. LIDAR scanning was used to record the shape and volume of the gabions to estimate variations in the density of the soil fill. The data indicate that moisture content can vary by over 20% between the top and base of the gabion, and by over 5% from face to face and between readings depending on recent weather conditions, while the core of the gabions remains relatively unaffected. This leads to localised variations in density which can impact on both the ballistic performance and blast resistance of the structure.

Early detection and information extraction for weather-induced floods using social media streams

Today we are using an unprecedented wealth of social media platforms to generate and share information regarding a wide class of events, which include extreme meteorological conditions and natural hazards such as floods. This paper proposes an automated set of services that start from the availability of weather forecasts, including both an event detection technique and a selective information retrieval from on-line social media. The envisioned services aim to provide qualitative feedback for meteorological models, detect the occurrence of an emergency event and extract informative content that can be used to complement the situational awareness. We implement such services and evaluate them during a recent weather induced flood. Our approach could be highly beneficial for monitoring agencies and meteorological offices, who act in the early warning phase, and also for authorities and first responders, who manage the emergency response phase.