Abstract
Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961–2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961–1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.
Highlights
In order to predict extreme weather events, it is essential to know the thresholds of unfavorable weather phenomena
Out of five observed regions, only in Western Serbia and Eastern Serbia did the absolute maximum not appear in July, but in September; this is due to the continental precipitation regime
The highest value of measured daily precipitation of 189.7 mm was registered in Vršac on 18 July 1995, and is considered as the upper limit of extreme precipitation
Summary
In order to predict extreme weather events, it is essential to know the thresholds of unfavorable weather phenomena. Many studies have been carried out regarding the impact of these weather phenomena upon different aspects of the environment and human activity within modern climate changes [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. These studies suggest that climate change has a tendency to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation, causing natural hazards. The biggest flood in Serbia and the surrounding regions since the second half of the 20th century occurred in 2014
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