Abstract
The study aimed at investigating eventual deviations from typical recommendations of irrigation water application to crops in Cyprus given the undeniable changes in recent weather conditions. It focused on the seasonal or monthly changes in crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and net irrigation requirements (NIR) of a number of permanent and annual crops over two consecutive overlapping periods (1976–2000 and 1990–2014). While the differences in the seasonal ETc and NIR estimates were not statistically significant between the studied periods, differences were identified via a month-by-month comparison. In March, the water demands of crops appeared to be significantly greater during the recent past in relation to 1976–2000, while for NIR, March showed statistically significant increases and September showed significant decreases. Consequently, the adjustment of irrigation schedules to climate change by farmers should not rely on annual trends as an eventual mismatch of monthly crop water needs with irrigation water supply might affect the critical growth stages of crops with a disproportionately greater negative impact on yields and quality. The clear increase in irrigation needs in March coincides with the most sensitive growth stage of irrigated potato crops in Cyprus. Therefore, the results may serve as a useful tool for current and future adaptation measures.
Highlights
Theoretical considerations, climate simulation models and empirical evidence indicate that global warming is leading to increased water vapor and to increased land precipitation at higher latitudes, notably over North America and Eurasia [1]
This study aims to investigate whether one of the characteristics of the ongoing climate change in Cyprus is a significant modification of the seasonal or monthly water needs and irrigation demands of crops, and discusses the consequences for agricultural production of an eventual deviation of the prevailing irrigation schedules to the current climatic conditions
The results revealed some interesting effects of ongoing climate change, which usually do not receive the deserved attention, and which could prove to be a useful guide for farmers, policy makers, government officers and agricultural advisors
Summary
Theoretical considerations, climate simulation models and empirical evidence indicate that global warming is leading to increased water vapor and to increased land precipitation at higher latitudes, notably over North America and Eurasia [1]. Contrary to many mid-to-upper latitude regions of the world, several regional studies have shown a dominant decreasing trend over the Mediterranean. In Cyprus, this change is already being manifested by a decrease in mean annual rainfall and an increase in annual mean temperature. Model projections agree on its future warming and drying, with a likely increase of heatwaves and dry spells; a prospect that will worsen the already existing water scarcity [4,5]. The consequences of such temperature and precipitation changes on a number of aspects of human life and agriculture might be considerable. In agriculture, increased temperatures or the extension of dryness may have a negative impact on crop yields [6] and in turn on food security [7] and may influence crops dynamics, e.g., the exclusion of some crops, or their replacement by others more
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