Recent Time Period Research Articles

Do She-EOs Still Experience Gender Bias? Examination of Market Reactions to Female CEO Appointments

We conduct replication and extension of Lee and James (2007) study on market reactions to female CEO appointments. Utilizing the same time period (1990-2000), we replicate the findings of market bias against female CEOs. We then extend the replication to a broader and more recent time period (2000-2019) and find evidence of a negative market reaction to female CEO appointments. Yet, this bias disappears in more recent years suggesting that temporal context serves as an important contingency affecting how investors view female CEO appointments.

Trends in pancreatic cancer incidence, characteristics, and outcomes in Denmark 1980–2019: A nationwide cohort study

ObjectiveTo describe time-trends in incidence, characteristics, treatments, and survival in pancreatic cancer patients in Denmark during 1980–2019. DesignA nationwide population-based cohort study of all Danish patients diagnosed with exocrine pancreatic cancer during the study period. Data was obtained from individual-level cross linkage between Danish healthcare registries. We present descriptive characteristics and survival estimates, which was obtained using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox proportional hazards regression models. ResultsDuring the study period, 32,107 patients were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. In the most recent period, the age-standardized incidence rate was 17.7 per 100,000 person-years. Throughout the study period, between 18.4% and 27.5% of patients had no tumor staging performed, and approximately half of the patient were only offered best supportive care. The proportion of patients treated with surgery doubled during the study period, and the use of adjuvant and neoadjuvant oncological therapy increased substantially. Median survival after surgical resection also increased to 25.8 months in the most recent time period. ConclusionPancreatic cancer incidence is increasing in Denmark, and this increase is projected to continue. The proportion of patients offered curative-intent treatment increased, which translates into an increase in overall survival. All numbers are comparable to best international standards.

EDNA Reveals the Associated Metazoan Diversity of Mediterranean Seagrass Sediments

Anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems have led to a decline of biodiversity across the oceans, threatening invaluable ecosystem services on which we depend. Ecological temporal data to track changes in diversity are relatively rare, and the few long-term datasets that exist often only date back a few decades or less. Here, we use eDNA taken from dated sediment cores to investigate changes over approximately the last 100 years of metazoan communities in native (Cymodocea nodosa and Posidonia oceanica) and exotic (Halophila stipulacea) seagrass meadows within the eastern Mediterranean Sea, at two locations in Greece and two in Cyprus. Overall, metazoan communities showed a high turnover of taxa during the past century, where losses of individual taxa in a seagrass meadow were compensated by the arrival of new taxa, probably due to the arrival of exotic species introduced in the Mediterranean Sea from the Suez Canal or the Gibraltar Strait. Specifically, bony fishes (Class Actinopteri) and soft corals (Class Anthozoa) presented significantly higher richness in the past (before the 1980s) than in the most recent time periods (from 1980–2017) and some Cnidarian orders were solely found in the past, whereas sponges and Calanoids (Class Hexanauplia), an order of copepods, showed an increase in richness since the 1980s. Moreover, the Phyla Porifera, Nematoda and the Classes Staurozoa, Hydrozoa and Ophiuroidea were detected in P. oceanica meadows but not in C. nodosa and H. stipulacea, which led to P. oceanica meadows having twice the richness of other seagrasses. The greater richness resulted from the more complex habitat provided by P. oceanica. The combination of eDNA and sediment cores allowed us to reconstruct temporal patterns of metazoan community diversity and provides a novel approach to follow natural communities back in time in the absence of time series and baseline data. The ongoing loss of P. oceanica meadows, likely to be compounded with future warming, might lead to a major loss of biodiversity and the replacement by other seagrass species, whether native or exotic, does not compensate for the loss.

Financial Literacy A Need of an Hour for Nurturing Lives and Livelihood: A Study on Households in Central Region of Uttar Pradesh in the Pre Covid-19 Scenario

Background: The Indian economy has witnessed a rapid financial transformation in the recent time period. And with this rapid financial transformation the economy has also witnessed shift in the planning for financial responsibilities like children education, retirement planning, planning of funds for financial emergencies etc. from employer to employee which ultimately led to the growing importance of financial literacy. The purpose of the study here is to ascertain financial literacy level of Households in the Central Region of Uttar Pradesh on the basis of basic and advance financial literacy questions and also highlights the significance of financial literacy in Post COVID-19 scenario. Method: The present study considers primary source of data. A total sample from 394 Households by way of non-probability sampling convenience sample method was selected from Central Region of Uttar Pradesh to determine the financial literacy level. Result: The findings of the study revealed that more than half of the household respondents were found low in financial literacy level and lack in financial numeracy concepts as well as to cope up with financial emergency situations. Conclusion: The results clearly showed that there is urgent need to educate individuals about managing personal finance for present as well as for future emergencies which help them to face the obstacles as prevalent at present in the form COVID-19 and ultimately help them to nurture their live and livelihoods.

Risk factors for revision surgery due to dislocation within 1 year after 111,711 primary total hip arthroplasties from 2005 to 2019: a study from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register.

Background and purposeDislocation of a hip prosthesis is the 3rd most frequent cause (after loosening and infection) for hip revision in Norway. Recently there has been a shift in surgical practice including preferred head size, surgical approach, articulation, and fixation. We explored factors associated with the risk of revision due to dislocation within 1 year and analyzed the impact of changes in surgical practice.Patients and methods111,711 cases of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were included (2005–2019) after primary THA with either 28 mm, 32 mm, or 36 mm femoral heads, or dual-mobility articulations. A flexible parametric survival model was used to calculate hazard ratios for risk factors. Kaplan–Meier survival rates were calculated.ResultsThere was an increased risk of revision due to dislocation with 28 mm femoral heads (HR 2.6, 95% CI 2.0–3.3) compared with 32 mm heads. Furthermore, there was a reduced risk of cemented fixation (HR 0.6, CI 0.5–0.8) and reverse hybrid (HR 0.6, CI 0.5–0.8) compared with uncemented. Also, both anterolateral (HR 0.5, CI 0.4–0.7) and lateral (HR 0.6, CI 0.5–0.7) approaches were associated with a reduced risk compared with the posterior approach. The time-period 2010–2014 had the lowest risk of revision due to dislocation. The trend during the study period was towards using larger head sizes, a posterior approach, and uncemented fixation for primary THA.InterpretationPatients with 28 mm head size, a posterior approach, or uncemented fixation had an increased risk of revision due to dislocation within 1 year after primary THA. The shift from lateral to posterior approach and more uncemented fixation was a plausible explanation for the increased risk of revision due to dislocation observed in the most recent time-period. The increased risk of revision due to dislocation was not fully compensated for by increasing femoral head size from 28 to 32 mm.

Trends in the Charges and Utilization of Computer-Assisted Navigation in Cervical and Thoracolumbar Spinal Surgery.

Retrospective national database study. This study is conducted to assess the trends in the charges and usage of computer-assisted navigation in cervical and thoracolumbar spinal surgery. This study is the first of its kind to use a nationwide dataset to analyze trends of computer-assisted navigation in spinal surgery over a recent time period in terms of use in the field as well as the cost of the technology. Relevant data from the National Readmission Database in 2015-2018 were analyzed, and the computer-assisted procedures of cervical and thoracolumbar spinal surgery were identified using International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision codes. Patient demographics, surgical data, readmissions, and total charges were examined. Comorbidity burden was calculated using the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity index. Complication rates were determined on the basis of diagnosis codes. A total of 48,116 cervical cases and 27,093 thoracolumbar cases were identified using computer-assisted navigation. No major differences in sex, age, or comorbidities over time were found. The utilization of computer-assisted navigation for cervical and thoracolumbar spinal fusion cases increased from 2015 to 2018 and normalized to their respective years' total cases (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.756, p =0.049; Pearson correlation coefficient=0.9895, p =0.010). Total charges for cervical and thoracolumbar cases increased over time (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.758, p =0.242; Pearson correlation coefficient=0.766, p =0.234). The use of computer-assisted navigation in spinal surgery increased significantly from 2015 to 2018. The average cost grossly increased from 2015 to 2018, and it was higher than the average cost of nonnavigated spinal surgery. With the increased utilization and standardization of computer-assisted navigation in spinal surgeries, the cost of care of more patients might potentially increase. As a result, further studies should be conducted to determine whether the use of computer-assisted navigation is efficient in terms of cost and improvement of care.

In-hospital cardiac arrests admitted alive in intensive care units: Insights from the CubRéa database.

In-hospital cardiac arrest(IHCA) has received little attention compared with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. To address the paucity of data on IHCA patients, we examined key features, variations in mortality and predictors of death among patients admitted in French intensive care units(ICUs) from 1997 to 2015. Using the database of the Collège des Utilisateurs de Bases de données en Réanimation(CUB-Réa) that prospectively collects data from ICUs in the greater Paris area, we determined temporal trends in the incidence of IHCA, patients' outcomes, crude and Simplified Acute Physiology Score(SAPS)-II Standardized mortality and predictors of in-ICU mortality. Of the 376,325 ICU admissions, 15,324(4.08%) had IHCA, with incidence increasing from 2.78% to 3.83%(p < 0.001). Over time, the patient age increased by 0.7 years(p = 0.04) and SAPS-II increased by 2.3%(p < 0.001). Crude in-ICU mortality decreased from 78% to 62.5% over the past 18 years(p < 0.001). The SAPS-II-standardized mortality also decreased over time from 78.4% to 68.3%(p < 0.001) representing a 10.1% relative decrease from 1997 to 2015. In multivariate analysis, admission in a more recent time-period was an independent correlate of decreased mortality(OR 0.40, 95%CI 0.35-0.46). Occurrence of IHCA increased over time but remains an uncommon reason for being admitted to ICU. From 1997 to 2015, we observed a change in patient profile, with older and more critically ill patients, despite which in-ICU mortality has substantially decreased in IHCA patients, likely resulting from a global improvement in the process of care and more widespread implementation of rapid response teams.

Trends in lifetime risk and years of potential life lost from diabetes in the United States, 1997-2018.

BackgroundBoth incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes have decreased over the past decade. However, the impact of these changes on key metrics of diabetes burden–lifetime risk (LR), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and years spent with diabetes–is unknown.MethodsWe used data from 653,811 adults aged ≥18 years from the National Health Interview Survey, a cross-sectional sample of the civilian non-institutionalized population in the United States. LR, YPLL, and years spent with diabetes were estimated from age 18 to 84 by survey period (1997–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2009, 2010–2014, 2015–2018). The age-specific incidence of diagnosed diabetes and mortality were estimated using Poisson regression. A multistate difference equation accounting for competing risks was used to model each metric.ResultsLR and years spent with diabetes initially increased then decreased over the most recent time periods. LR for adults at age 20 increased from 31.7% (95% CI: 31.2–32.1%) in 1997–1999 to 40.7% (40.2–41.1%) in 2005–2009, then decreased to 32.8% (32.4–33.2%) in 2015–2018. Both LR and years spent with diabetes were markedly higher among adults of non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other races compared to non-Hispanic Whites. YPLL significantly decreased over the study period, with the estimated YPLL due to diabetes for an adult aged 20 decreasing from 8.9 (8.7–9.1) in 1997–1999 to 6.2 (6.1–6.4) in 2015–2018 (p = 0.02).ConclusionIn the United States, diabetes burden is declining, but disparities by race/ethnicity remain. LR remains high with approximately one-third of adults estimated to develop diabetes during their lifetime.

A Novel Approach of Marine Ecosystem Monitoring System with Multi-Sensory Submarine on Robotic Platform for Visualizing the Climate Change Effect over Oceanic Environment

It is obvious that the whole world is so much concerned about the terrifying escalation of climate change in the recent time period. This climate change effect can be visible in the land, atmospheric and oceanic area simultaneously. Though there have been multiple attempts of proposing solutions concerning the protection for the land area environmental balance, monitoring and surveillance. But unfortunately there have been a very handful of research work which predominantly concerns about the protection upon the environmental state of marine biological species and its ecosystem. So, the following research study proposes a solution which appears to be a full-fledged Bluetooth controlled Submarine prototype with a sensory chipboard attached inside its endo-skeleton which contains multiple sensors like DHT11 temperature-humidity, dust, CO2 and YL69 pH sensors. The sensory data provides the information of underwater whether the naval environment is habitable for the marine biological species or not, under the terrible effect of global climate change. The submarine prototype is fully functional in the surface and underwater scenario which contains a very unique mechanical design and circuitry with an exceptional sensor data streaming capability which can be used by marine biological researchers and oceanographers professionally as a full-fledged marine ecosystem monitoring device.&#x0D; HIGHLIGHTS&#x0D; &#x0D; Climate change is causing a very alarming effect in the oceanic area which is constantly threatening the future of marine biological species. The paper focuses on the constant monitoring over spacies with the help of a multi-sensory submarine with real time sensory data and remote navigation&#x0D; The unique clustering of multi-sensory circuity makes the sensory data more reliable while the vacuum controlled hydraulic pump motors make the navigation and diving of the submarine prototype very preciseand swift&#x0D; The navigation can be controlled with a globally unique and customized Submarine Navigator Smartphone Application&#x0D; The multi-sensory marine species monitoring submarine prototype appears to be a torch-bearer of the amalgamation of the fields such as IOT-Sensors and Robotics which paves the way for further IOT and Naval Robotics Research&#x0D; &#x0D; GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Second malignancies in patients with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Half a century of experience

PurposeTherapeutic improvements for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma (HL) has resulted in excellent survival outcomes. Thus, patients are increasing susceptible to developing secondary malignancy (SM) a feared iatrogenic complication. Materials & MethodsWe evaluated the SM risk in a cohort of patients with HL treated over a 50-year period. In total, 1653 patients were treated for HL from 1956 to 2009 at a tertiary-cancer-center. A cumulative incidence function was used to quantify SM risk and the Fine and Gray competing risk model was used to identify disease and treatment related correlates. ResultsTwo-hundred-ninety patients (19%) developed SMs. Paradoxically, SM risk was higher in the modern era with 20-year cumulative incidence rates of 11.1%, 11.9%, 17% and 21.8%, for patients treated <1970, 1971–1986, 1986–1995 and 1996–2009, respectively. We hypothesized that the disproportionately high rate of early deaths in the early era may skew the assessment of SM risks, a much-delayed event. When the analysis was restricted to patients with early-stage favorable HL treated >1980, we found a reversal of the trend, especially on the risk of solid tumor, with a hazard ratio of 0.57 (p = 0.0651) in patients treated after 1996. ConclusionOur findings highlight the limitations of comparing the risk of a late event between groups with disparate rates of early deaths, despite the use of a competing risk model. When partially corrected for, patients treated in the more recent time period experienced a lower solid tumor risk.

Есть ли жизнь офлайн, или О проблемах номинации невиртуальной действительности

The paper is devoted to analysis of the lexical units used in English and Russian for the purpose of nominating virtual and non-virtual reality. Special attention is paid to the study of ways to designate human life activity outside of computer-mediated technologies. It is proved that the presence of only one form of human life activity for many millennia did not cause a nominative need to assign a specific characteristic to a phenomenon that has no ontological alternative. The emergence of a technologized virtual environment has provoked the need to differentiate two forms of modern life and two chronological layers: the era before the Internet and after it’s invention. As a result, the adjective online, which characterizes the secondary form of existence, was used as a relative onomasiological base for naming genetically and chronologically primary forms of being. The initial technological dichotomy online / offline has undergone semantic widening, acquiring the status of a global ontological dichotomy online-life / offline-life. In the recent period of time, a number of synonymous units have appeared in English and Russian, denoting virtual and real forms of life activity. In addition to borrowings and calques translated from English, Russian widely uses its own language tools and original nominative techniques, among which the processes of neosemantization and univerbalization are most productive.

Gaps in hepatitis C virus prevention and care for HIV-hepatitis C virus co-infected people who inject drugs in Canada.

People who inject drugs (PWID) living with HIV are a priority population for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat. Maximizing access to HCV prevention and treatment strategies are key steps towards elimination. We aimed to evaluate engagement in harm reduction programs and HCV treatment, and to describe injection practices among HIV-HCV co-infected PWID in Canada from 2003 to 2019. We included Canadian Coinfection Cohort study participants who reported injecting drugs between 2003 and 2019 in Quebec, Ontario, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia, Canada. We investigated temporal trends in HCV treatment uptake, efficacy, and effectiveness; injection practices; and engagement in harm reduction programs in three time periods based on HCV treatment availability: 1) interferon/ribavirin (2003-2010); 2) first-generation direct acting antivirals (DAAs) (2011-2013); 3) second-generation DAAs (2014-2019). Harm reduction services assessed included needle and syringe programs (NSP), opioid agonist therapy (OAT), and supervised injection sites (SIS). Median age of participants (N=1,077) at cohort entry was 44 years; 69% were males. Province-specific HCV treatment rates increased among HCV RNA-positive PWID, reaching 16 to 31 per 100 person-years in 2014-2019. Treatment efficacy improved from a 50 to 70% range in 2003-2010 to >90% across provinces in 2014-2019. Drug injecting patterns among active PWID varied by province, with an overall decrease in cocaine injection frequency and increasing opioid injections. In the most recent time period (2014-2019), needle/syringe sharing was reported at 8-22% of visits. Gaps remained in engagement in harm reduction programs: NSP use decreased (58-70% of visits), OAT engagement among opioid users was low (8-26% of visits), and participants rarely used SIS (1-15% of visits). HCV treatment uptake and outcomes have improved among HIV-HCV coinfected PWID. Yet, this population remains exposed to drug-related harms, highlighting the need to tie HCV elimination strategies with enhanced harm reduction programs to improve overall health for this population.

MP23-06 NEOADJUVANT CHEMOTHERAPY BEFORE RADICAL CYSTECTOMY FOR MUSCLE-INVASIVE BLADDER CANCER: PATIENT, PROVIDER, AND CLINICAL ETIOLOGIES FOR LACK OF UTILIZATION

You have accessJournal of UrologyCME1 May 2022MP23-06 NEOADJUVANT CHEMOTHERAPY BEFORE RADICAL CYSTECTOMY FOR MUSCLE-INVASIVE BLADDER CANCER: PATIENT, PROVIDER, AND CLINICAL ETIOLOGIES FOR LACK OF UTILIZATION Hiten D. Patel, Ushasi Naha, Victor S. Chen, Caitlyn Ko, Rachel Yang, Aleksander Druck, Goran Rac, and Marcus L. Quek Hiten D. PatelHiten D. Patel More articles by this author , Ushasi NahaUshasi Naha More articles by this author , Victor S. ChenVictor S. Chen More articles by this author , Caitlyn KoCaitlyn Ko More articles by this author , Rachel YangRachel Yang More articles by this author , Aleksander DruckAleksander Druck More articles by this author , Goran RacGoran Rac More articles by this author , and Marcus L. QuekMarcus L. Quek More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000002562.06AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) represents a standard of care prior to radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC; ≥cT2). While NAC utilization has increased over time in the United States, many patients may not receive NAC due to reasons that are difficult to identify in administrative or registry data. We aimed to assess utilization of NAC and etiologies for lack of NAC receipt among consecutive patients at a single institution. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with bladder cancer and undergoing radical cystectomy at Loyola University Medical Center (2005-2021) were included. Clinical variables included age, sex, race, comorbidities, prior intravesical therapy, hydronephrosis, histology, clinical stage, and surgical approach. Patients were categorized by stage and receipt of NAC. Early and recent time periods were evaluated among all ≥cT2 patients and after exclusion of non-candidates. Reasons for no NAC were categorized. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Of 589 evaluable patients, 380 (64.5%) had ≥cT2 disease and 209 (35.5%) <cT2. Among ≥cT2 patients, a total of 155 (40.8%) received NAC with significant increase in utilization from the early to recent time periods (22.8% to 67.8%, p <0.001). Utilization of NAC was similar for open and robotic approach (p=0.15). Among 225 patients not receiving NAC, reasons included renal dysfunction (28.0%), patient symptoms (9.3%), concern for disease progression (8.4%), salvage setting (3.1%), patient preference/refusal (24.4%), and provider recommendation (26.7%). Provider recommendation was related to comorbidities (18/60 (30.0%); e.g. prior chemotherapy, hearing loss, non-renal comorbidity), histology (20/60 (33.3%); e.g. squamous or adenocarcinoma histology), or not mentioned (22/60 (36.7%)). After excluding non-candidates for NAC, increase in utilization from the early to recent time periods was 34.2% to 85.8% (p <0.001). Patient preference/refusal decreased from 29.0% to 8.2% in the early to recent time periods (p <0.001). NAC was associated with improved OS (HR 0.54, p=0.003). Patients with reasons to forgo NAC had worse OS including due to renal dysfunction (HR 1.98, p=0.007), symptoms (HR 2.27, p=0.03), or provider recommendation (HR 2.35, p=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: NAC utilization increased over time with change in estimates before and after exclusion of non-candidates. Renal dysfunction, patient preference, and provider recommendation based on histologic or clinical concerns were primary etiologies for lack of NAC prior to radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Fewer patients refused NAC in recent years leading to a potential ceiling for NAC utilization. Source of Funding: None © 2022 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 207Issue Supplement 5May 2022Page: e383 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2022 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Hiten D. Patel More articles by this author Ushasi Naha More articles by this author Victor S. Chen More articles by this author Caitlyn Ko More articles by this author Rachel Yang More articles by this author Aleksander Druck More articles by this author Goran Rac More articles by this author Marcus L. Quek More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...

Increases in temperature and freshwater inputs will shift grazing patterns of a coastal mesograzer on foundation species

AbstractFoundation species, and the roles that they play in structuring ecosystems, are threatened by global change. For example, charophytes are a refuge for zooplankton and stabilize sediments, but they are also a food source for various animal species (water birds, fishes, and invertebrates). Particularly, the introduction of new species, such as Gammarus tigrinus, into the Baltic Sea led to yet not understood changes in the food web. Furthermore, future projections point to increased water temperatures and freshwater inputs affecting species capacity to acclimatize to changing abiotic factors. In this study, we investigated the influence of temperature and salinity on the grazing pressure of G. tigrinus on two charophyte species: Chara aspera and Chara tomentosa. The grazing experiments were conducted in a full‐factorial design with the factors salinity (3–13 g kg−1), temperature (5–30°C), and charophyte species. Grazing rates were determined as mass deviation within 48 h considering biomass changes in the presence and absence of gammarids. Grazing rates were further used to calculate charophyte losses in two coastal lagoons with different salinity concentrations for recent and future time periods. Increasing freshwater inputs can buffer charophyte biomass loss at higher temperatures. Gammarids had a higher grazing impact on C. aspera than on C. tomentosa. The potential grazing peak of about 24°C is not yet reached in these coastal waters but may be reached in the near future as shown by our future projection results. However, a temperature increase and decrease in salinity will cause a shift in seasonal individual grazing patterns from summer to spring and autumn. An increase in temperature and freshwater input can lead to a shift in optimal habitats for G. tigrinus in the future. These interactions between abiotic and biotic factors will affect the future spatial distribution that charophytes can exploit as foundation species.

Using near‐ground leaf temperatures alters the projected climate change impacts on the historical range of a floristic biodiversity hotspot

AbstractAimSpecies distribution models (SDMs) have been used widely to predict the responses of species to climate change. However, the climate data used to drive these models typically represents ambient air temperatures, derived from measurements taken 1–2 m above the ground. Most plant species live near the ground where temperatures can differ significantly, owing to the effects of solar radiation and reduced wind speed. Here, we investigate differences in spatio‐temporal patterns in near‐ground leaf and ambient air temperatures and the implications this has on projected changes in species richness of a suite of Fynbos plant species.LocationFynbos Biome, South Africa.MethodsFor each individual plant species (n = 83), we constructed two types of SDMs: one using ambient air temperatures and one using near‐ground leaf temperatures. Each of these models was fitted to species occurrence data for a recent time period and projected backwards into the past. Species richness projections for both time periods were then constructed using binarized projections.ResultsWe found that the impact of climate change on species richness – both the degree of suitable climate lost from the historical range and gained outside of the historical range – was greater using SDMs built with near‐ground leaf temperatures. Independent validation of the hindcast projections revealed near‐ground SDMs to be more accurate.Main ConclusionsOur study suggests that SDMs constructed using ambient air temperatures are likely overestimating the breadth of the species’ occupied thermal niche, thus underestimating the climate change‐driven risk to species where near‐ground leaf and ambient air temperatures are particularly decoupled from one another. Additionally, ambient air SDMs may be underestimating the ex‐situ refugial potential of inland mountains. Ambient air temperatures should not be considered an effective surrogate for investigating climate change impacts on species living near the ground.

OA10 Survival analysis of 496 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus with up to 40 years follow-up shows improved survival in patients diagnosed in more recent time-periods

Abstract Background/Aims Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have increased mortality compared to age- and sex-matched controls. Lupus nephritis (LN) is a severe manifestation of SLE and an important cause of death. Our objective was to carry out a retrospective survival analysis to investigate factors that could influence risk of mortality and LN in a large multi-ethnic cohort of patients with SLE. Methods By careful review of medical records, we identified 496 patients with SLE for whom we had complete information regarding period of observation and occurrence of death and nephritis. Patients were stratified into groups according to sex, ethnicity (Caucasian, African/Caribbean, South Asian, East Asian, Other), age at start of follow-up (above and below median) and time-period of diagnosis (1978-89, 1990-99, 2000-5, 2006-11). Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to investigate differences between the groups in survival and LN. Results Overall, there were 454 women and 42 men. 91 patients died and 165 developed LN. Mean follow-up was 15.8 ± 8.75 years with a maximum of 40 years. Median age at start of follow-up was 28.0 ± 12.13 years. Results are shown in Table 1 There were no differences between men and women in mortality or LN. Caucasian patients were significantly less likely to develop LN (P &amp;lt; 0.0001) than other groups but there was no mortality difference between ethnic groups. Patients diagnosed below age 28 were more likely to develop LN (P &amp;lt; 0.0001) but less likely to die (P = 0.0039) than those diagnosed above age 28. Patients diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were significantly less likely to die than those diagnosed between 1978 and1989 by Cox proportional hazards analysis of survival curves. (P = 0.019) Conclusion In this long-term survival analysis of 496 patients, non-Caucasian patients and those diagnosed below the age of 28 years were more likely to develop LN. The latter group were less likely to die than those diagnosed at older ages. Survival curves for groups of patients diagnosed in successive time periods suggested improved survival over time. Disclosure W. Luo: None. F. Farinha: None. D.A. Isenberg: None. A. Rahman: None.

Patterns of interdisciplinary collaboration resemble biogeochemical relationships in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: a historical social network analysis of science, 1907–2016

Co-authorship networks can provide key insights into the production of scientific knowledge. This is particularly interesting in Antarctica, where most human activity relates to scientific research. Bibliometric studies of Antarctic science have provided a useful understanding of international and interdisciplinary collaboration, yet most research has focused on broad-scale analyses over recent time periods. Here, we take advantage of a ‘Goldilocks’ opportunity in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, an internationally important region of Antarctica and the largest ice-free region on the continent. The McMurdo Dry Valleys have attracted continuous and diverse scientific activity since 1958. It is a geographically confined region with limited access, making it possible to evaluate the influence of specific events and individuals. We trace the history of environmental science in this region using bibliometrics and social network analysis. Our results show a marked shift in focus from the geosciences to the biosciences, which mirrors wider trends in the history of science. Collaboration among individuals and academic disciplines increased through time, and the most productive scientists in the network are also the most interdisciplinary. Patterns of collaboration among disciplines resemble the biogeochemical relationships among respective landscape features, raising interesting questions about the role of the material environment in the development of scientific networks in the region, and the dynamic interaction with socio-cultural and political factors. Our focused, historical approach adds nuance to broad-scale bibliometric studies and could be applied to understand the dynamics of scientific research in other regions of Antarctica and elsewhere.

JIM Reading List.

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P46. COMPLICATIONS IN PREPECTORAL TISSUE EXPANDER PLACEMENT: A SINGLE INSTITUTION STUDY

PURPOSE: Prepectoral two-stage post-mastectomy breast reconstruction has increased in the recent time period. Benefits of prepectoral reconstruction may include lack of animation deformities and reduced post-operative pain, but its complication profile is currently unclear. The aim of this study is to examine the complication profile of prepectoral tissue expanders (TEs) at our institution. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of patients who underwent immediate reconstruction with a prepectoral TE from 2018-2020 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Basic demographics and comorbidities were evaluated. Outcomes of interest included seroma, hematoma, infection/cellulitis, mastectomy skin flap necrosis requiring revision (MSFN), TE exposure, capsular contracture, and TE loss. Multivariate logistic regression assessed factors associated with increased odds of TE loss. RESULTS: A total of 574 patients (952 TEs) were included. Overall, 78.6% of mastectomies were skin-sparing, 71.2% of TEs were smooth, 82.6% used acellular dermal matrix (ADM), and 46.6% used SPY angiography. Most frequent complications were seroma (9%), infection/cellulitis (8%), and TE loss (4.6%). Hematoma, TE exposure, and MSFN each had complication rates of 2%. Fewer than 1% of patients experienced capsular contracture. Diabetics (OR=1.09, p=0.02), former smokers (OR=2.45, p<0.01), and increasing mastectomy weight (OR=0.001, p=0.04) had increased odds of TE loss. TE loss was not associated with TE surface type, ADM use, or SPY use. CONCLUSION: Prepectoral reconstruction is a reasonable and safe alternative to subpectoral TE placement. Further research examining the quality of the soft tissue envelope and pocket size, as well as assessment of patient reported outcomes, would prove beneficial.

Integrating historical observations alters projections of eastern North American spruce–fir habitat under climate change

AbstractSpruce–fir (Picea–Abies) forests of the North American Acadian Forest Region are at risk of disappearing from the northeastern United States and Canada due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to predict changes in this critical transitional ecosystem in the past, but none have addressed how seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation interact to influence tree species abundance. Inferences have also been limited by contemporary inventory data that could not fully characterize species ranges because they either, (1) only sampled species occurrence after large‐scale human disturbance and settlement, or (2) did not span critical geopolitical boundaries (e.g., the US–Canadian border) that intersect the focal species' range(s). Here, we built new SDM models to better assess the bioclimatic distribution of four spruce–fir species and to test the importance of seasonal climate interactions. We compiled an extensive database of tree occurrence and abundance from recent (~1955–2012) and historical time periods (1623–1869) to model current species distributions and to predict how these might change under future climate. We found that including historical tree data in our SDMs revealed previously unrecognized suitable habitat along the southern edge of species' contemporary ranges. Random forest models predicted occurrence with high accuracy (area under receiver operator curve &gt;0.98), and the seasonal climate variables that emerged as most important for these cold‐adapted species all included interactions that reflected sensitivity to colder temperatures, and preferences for wet weather concentrated in the winter months. Under moderate climate warming (representative concentration pathway 6.0), the northeastern United States retained additional suitable habitat when historical data were included through 2060 for three of the four species: red spruce (Picea rubens), black spruce (Picea mariana), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea), while white spruce (Picea glauca) habitat contracted into Canada. In contrast, future predictions from models that used contemporary data alone forecast extirpation for all four species from the northeastern United States. Overall, these findings highlight that prediction of species ranges in transitional ecosystems that span geopolitical boundaries and gradients of intense land use are improved when historical data and seasonal climate interactions of both temperature and precipitation variables are incorporated.