Recent Drought Research Articles

Axolotls, environmentally conscious mayors and watermills: Didactic proposals for raising awareness on water conservation through pedagogical translation

The present article explores the possibilities of integrating Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) #6 (Clean water and sanitation) in the content of materials designed for Spanish as a second or foreign language (S2/FL) learners in a Mexican context. The idea arose from the recent severe droughts in the country that affected water consumption in certain cities. For immersion students studying S2/FL in Mexico, this became a reality rarely discussed in the classroom. In addition, the use of pedagogical translation is proposed to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the learners’ already existing linguistics skills. Considering the particularities of the context where the project was developed, the material design stage was preceded by two smaller enquiries into the perception of Mexico and Mexican culture abroad as well as the country’s representation in existing S2/FL materials. One specific point of interest was if everyday realities where the lack of water received mention in the foreign press and / or if S2/FL textbooks. The resulting activities propose to cover these rather complex topics through a ludic perspective that can be replicated and adapted to a variety of contexts and any one of the SDG.

Extreme droughts in the Amazon Basin during cyclic ENSO events coupled with Indian Ocean Dipole modes and Tropical North Atlantic warming.

The teleconnections between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Tropical North Atlantic warming (+TNA) play a critical role in characterizing extreme drought events in the Amazon Basin (AB). This study examines the seven most recent drought extreme events up to 2023, using seasonal composites of the sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables over a five-quarter period starting at the austral spring(-1) of the year preceding that when the lowest water level at Manaus port was recorded. Two distinct patterns emerge, driven by consecutive ENSO events with opposite phases, referred to as cyclic La Niña-El Niño and cyclic El Niño-La Niña drought events. For these events, IOD and ENSO modes are coupled in the same phase during the springs, with ENSO triggering and enhancing IOD, and the IOD, in turn, enhancing and sustaining ENSO through Walker circulation. This interaction can amplify extratropical Rossby waves in both hemispheres, originating from the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans. Notably, strong positive ENSO and IOD phases trigger or sustain the +TNA by weakening northeasterlies through a Pacific-North America wave train. The IOD, ENSO and +TNA, individually or combined, influence atmospheric circulation patterns over South America through Rossby waves and anomalous Walker and Hadley circulation patterns, causing dry periods in the AB marked by negative precipitation anomalies across specific regions or the entire AB, consequently modulating the water levels at Manaus. The strong coupling of these three tropical modes is crucial to leading multiyear drought events in the AB. This study underscores the potential for a robust climate forecasting system by monitoring the oceanic indices.

Multiple Elevation‐Dependent Climate Signals From Quantitative Wood Anatomical Measurements of Rocky Mountain Bristlecone Pine

AbstractSouthwestern North America has experienced significant temperature increases over the last century, leading to intensified droughts that significantly affect montane forests. Although tree‐ring data have provided long‐term context for this recent drought severity, the varying physiological responses of trees to climate variability make it challenging to disentangle the combined influence of temperature and soil moisture. Here we investigate complex climate‐growth relationships in Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) at a low‐elevation and a high‐elevation site using quantitative wood anatomy (QWA). Significant correlations with climate were found for low‐elevation tree‐ring width (TRW) and earlywood chronologies, including positive correlations with spring and early summer precipitation and drought indices and negative correlations with spring and early summer maximum temperatures. At high elevations, TRW and earlywood chronologies show positive responses to summer moisture, whereas latewood chronologies correlate positively with August and September maximum temperatures and negatively with August precipitation. We leverage this differing seasonality of moisture and temperature signals and compare the QWA data to known droughts. The earlywood lumen area is found to be highly responsive to drought because of its physiological reliance on water availability for maintaining turgor pressure during cell enlargement. We also observed a decline in temperature sensitivity at the high elevation site, suggesting shifts in the dominance of limiting factors. Integrating QWA with traditional dendrochronology improves interpretations of tree‐ring data for use in climate reconstruction, offering detailed insights into tree physiological responses and the mix of environmental and developmental controls on cell growth.

Extraordinary 21st Century Drought in the Po River Basin (Italy)

Recent research identified 2022 as being the year of lowest seasonal April–May–June–July (AMJJ) observed streamflow for the Po River Basin (PRB) in the past two centuries. Expanding upon this research, we applied filters (2-year to 30-year filters) to the AMJJ observed streamflow and identified the late 20th and 21st century as displaying extreme drought. In this study, we introduce PALEO-RECON, an automated reconstruction tool developed to leverage tree ring-based proxies and streamline regression processes. Using PALEO-RECON, we reconstructed the AMJJ streamflow, applying traditional regression techniques and using a nested approach in which 30-, 40-, and 50-year windows within the ~200-year observed streamflow record (1807 to 2022) were evaluated to capture uncertainty. Focusing on the 21st century (2000 to 2022), while several droughts in the ~2000-year paleo record may have exceeded the 2000 to 2022 drought, the recent PRB drought ending in 2022 was the lowest 23-year period in approximately 500 years, acknowledging that uncertainty increases as we move further back in time. When examining paleo and observed AMJJ streamflow records, deficit and surplus periods were evaluated, focusing on the potential “whiplash” between drought and pluvial events. We observed an increase in the frequency of whiplash events, which may be associated with a changing climate.

A checklist of indigenous flora in the Richtersveld National Park confirms high plant diversity in the arid north-western tip of South Africa

As a basis for conservation planning, a first comprehensive vascular plant species checklist for the core Richtersveld National Park was compiled, based on the collection of more than 3000 new herbarium vouchers and in total studying over 8000 specimens and more than 4000 iNaturalist observations. By the end of April 2024, a total of 1077 indigenous taxa were recorded. The documented indigenous flora included 14 pteridophytes, 3 paleodicots, 246 monocotyledons and 815 dicotyledons. A total of 99 indigenous families and 392 genera were recorded. The largest family was the Asteraceae, and the second largest family was the Aizoaceae. In addition, 44 taxa were identified as invasive or alien flora. Seven species were regarded as extinct; of these, four species disappeared in a context of diamond mining, and three species were no longer found after the recent drought 2014 to 2022. The role of the peculiar biogeographical position and the high diversity of unique habitats within extreme environmental gradients were discussed in a review of published evidence. Reference to distribution and habitat was presented for each species in the appendices.Conservation implications: The article offers a complete checklist of vascular plants that forms a baseline for monitoring, and which facilitates the identification of additional taxa. In addition, a total of 125 taxa listed on the SANBI Red List and 15 taxa on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List were recorded, as well as a total of 170 taxa of conservation concern. Twenty-nine taxa are listed as endangered, and 21 taxa were listed as critically endangered on the South African red list. A total of 38 taxa were regarded as endemic and 101 taxa as near endemic. The identification of these taxa in combination with the information on their habitat preferences and distribution will allow targeted conservation planning.

Revisiting the “East African Paradox”: CMIP6 Models Also Struggle to Reproduce Strong Observed Long Rain Drying Trends

Abstract Societies in much of the Horn of Africa are affected by variability in two distinct rainy seasons: the March–May (MAM) “long” rains and the October–December (OND) “short” rains. A recent five-season, La Niña–forced drought has renewed concerns about possible anthropogenic drying trends in the long rains, which had partially recovered after a multidecadal drying trend in the 1980s through the 2000s. Despite observed drying, previous generations of global climate models (GCMs) have consistently projected long-term wetting due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, an East African “paradox” which complicates the interpretation of East African rainfall projections. We investigate the paradox in new phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and seasonal forecast models, leveraging an improved observational record and large ensembles to better differentiate internal and forced trends. We find observed drying trends are at the limits of the GCM spread during the peak paradox period, though the recent recovery is comfortably within the model spread. We find that the apparent paradox is largely removed by prescribing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is likely caused by the GCM difficulties in simulating observed tropical Pacific SST trends in recent decades. In line with arguments that these SST trends are at least partially forced anthropogenically, we recommend users of future rainfall projections in East Africa consider the possibility of long-term MAM drying despite GCM wetting and call for future model simulations that better sample the expected spread of SSTs. Significance Statement Societies in the Horn of Africa depend on the March–May “long” rains and the September–December “short” rains to support agricultural and pastoral practices on rain-fed lands. Recent major droughts have raised worries about possible anthropogenically forced drying trends in the long rains through global climate models (GCMs) project wetting. This East African “paradox” complicates long-term climate adaptation planning. We find the paradox continues in the newest generation of GCMs and seasonal forecast models; though a recent recovery in rainfall is well-captured, the strongest observed drying trends are rare in simulations. The paradox likely arises from known GCM biases in the Pacific Ocean interacting with natural variability. We recommend that researchers and policymakers consider possible long-term drying despite GCM projections of wetting.

Synthesis and Perspectives on Disturbance Interactions, and Forest Fire Risk and Fire Severity in Central Europe

Wildfire risk increases following non-fire disturbance events, but this relationship is not always linear or cumulative, and previous studies are not consistent in differentiating between disturbance loops versus cascades. Previous research on disturbance interactions and their influence on forest fires has primarily focused on fire-prone regions, such as North America, Australia, and Southern Europe. In contrast, less is known about these dynamics in Central Europe, where wildfire risk and hazard are increasing. In recent years, forest disturbances, particularly windthrow, insect outbreaks, and drought, have become more frequent in Central Europe. At the same time, climate change is influencing fire weather conditions that further intensify forest fire dynamics. Here, we synthesize findings from the recent literature on disturbance interactions in Central Europe with the aim to identify disturbance-driven processes that influence the regional fire regime. We propose a conceptual framework of interacting disturbances that can be used in wildfire risk assessments and beyond. In addition, we identify knowledge gaps and make suggestions for future research regarding disturbance interactions and their implications for wildfire activity. Our findings indicate that fire risk in the temperate forests of Central Europe is increasing and that non-fire disturbances and their interactions modify fuel properties that subsequently influence wildfire dynamics in multiple ways.

Tree growth responses to severe droughts for assessment of forest growth potential under future climate

More frequently occurring droughts, related to climate change, lead to reduced growth and loss of vitality in trees. The recent drought of 2018 was extreme, long-lasting and resulted in high evaporative demands due to the concurrent high temperatures. The aim of this study was to compare the drought resilience of nine temperate tree species in the Netherlands, and to determine their responses to the severe drought of 2018 in comparison with five earlier drought events since 1970. To assess drought effects on tree species, we analysed tree-ring series of 678 trees in 45 plots throughout the Netherlands. Resilience indices were calculated based on growth reactions and growth recovery after drought. Furthermore, the impact of drought events on species productivity was quantified. We observed species-specific differences in growth responses to drought timing. All species in nearly all sites responded with growth reductions to drought, except sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). The most productive species in our study were found to be drought sensitive, with productivity losses of up to 30 % during drought in some sites. Productivity losses were highest on the driest soils. Resilience to the 2018 drought did not differ significantly from other drought years for six out of the nine studied species. However, 77.5 % of the individual trees of all studied species did not fully recover in growth within the following two years. Low post-drought growth remains poorly understood and should be taken into account in future studies to safeguard the health and productivity of the forest under climate change. We consider sessile oak a promising species for future forests in the Netherlands. Based on our results, we provide an outlook on future resilience and growth potential of the species studied under projected climate change for the Netherlands.

Agricultural droughts and under-five mortality in Côte d’Ivoire: Differential impacts across social and demographic groups

Little research explores how climate extremes affect early childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, despite great vulnerability to both climate extremes and high rates of early childhood mortality. Although there have been substantial improvements in early childhood mortality in recent decades, climate change threatens to offset this progress. Focusing on the case of Côte d’Ivoire, I combine individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys with high-resolution climate data to investigate how and when in-utero exposure to severe agricultural droughts influences early childhood mortality. I find that in-utero exposure to severe agricultural droughts increases the probability of under-five mortality, and most recent droughts seem to exert the greatest impact. I also find that boys and children born into families with little to no formal education are highly vulnerable to drought exposure during gestation. Maternal education mitigates the negative impact of droughts on under-five survival, regardless of urban or rural residence, suggesting that its protective effects may be linked to specific knowledge, behaviours, and practices that highly educated mothers employ rather than their living environment. These findings carry important lessons for policymakers, emphasising the need for policies that enhance educational opportunities for parents and develop targeted interventions for boys and children from families with little formal education.

Estimating canopy cover loss with Landsat dense time series: a Mortality Magnitude Index for the Ecosystem Disturbance and Recovery Tracker (eDaRT)

ABSTRACT Recent drought and insect-induced tree mortality across the western United States has increased the need among land managers and scientists for improved estimation of disturbance timing, type and magnitude, accelerating improvements in high density time series algorithms to map disturbance. We present a novel severity index for tree mortality, called Mortality Magnitude Index (MMI), which expands functionality of a Landsat-processing system, the Ecosystem Disturbance and Recovery Tracker (eDaRT) to estimate tree canopy cover loss as a pixel area proportion. The MMI model utilizes time series of anomaly metrics generated by the eDaRT disturbance detection process, which represent robust normalized statistics of spectral change related to vegetation cover and health. We describe the MMI methodology that integrates the eDaRT metrics over pre- and post-disturbance windows and fits a generalized linear model by beta-regression using training data from the Sierra Nevada, California, including tree mortality that occurred during 2010–2017. The selected model included seven predictor variables (RMSE = 13.0%) and was further validated in southern California for tree mortality events spanning the last two decades. The MMI model exhibited robust temporal and spatial transferability, which have led to subsequent applications of MMI datasets in forest health assessment, wildlife habitat analyses and wildland fire incident support.

Patterns and drivers of cottonwood mortality in the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA

AbstractRiparian ecosystems are some of the most valuable and vulnerable on the planet. Riparian tree mortality is increasing in the western United States, where altered streamflows are combining with warming climate. Between 2011 and 2013, one third of an extensive stand of Populus deltoides var. wislizeni (Rio Grande cottonwood) died along the middle Rio Grande on the Pueblo of Santa Ana in New Mexico. Mortality coincided with a severe drought that followed a decade of decreasing streamflow, but it was heterogeneous, with adjacent patches of dead and live trees. The goal of this research was to determine the drivers of mortality to provide insights into future risks of die‐off and potential management interventions. We compared tree age, competition, tree‐ring widths, sediment particle size and climate influences between live and dead forest patches in a nested plot design. Live and dead trees had similar age, stand density and particle sizes of shallow sediments. Tree‐ring widths had the highest correlations with July–September streamflow (1932–2013). All trees had declining ring growth since 1992, coinciding with declining late summer streamflow. An accelerated decline in growth began in 2002, corresponding to recent warmer droughts. Trees that died had lower ring growth 3 years prior to death and in the mid‐1900s. Dead trees also had coarser deep sediments 2.4–3.7 m below ground, suggesting that reduced water holding capacity was an important factor for mortality. Water management to increase streamflow during the late summer, especially during times of extended drought, could reduce mortality risk in the face of projected increasingly warm droughts.

Irrigation Water in Northwest Syria: Impact of the Recent Crisis and Drought

This study examines how Northwest Syria’s arable and irrigated areas are changing, with a particular emphasis on processes that have affected cultivation and water availability since 2011. A substantial decline in cultivated areas is revealed by the analysis of 502 samples from various stakeholders, including farmers, well owners, well-digging companies, agricultural pharmacies, and service offices. District-specific variations show a decrease of 15.3% and 8.5% in total cultivated land and irrigated areas, respectively. Particularly in areas known for their summer vegetables and winter crops, such Al-Bab and Jebel Saman, agricultural productivity has drastically decreased since 2011. Today, 67% of irrigation comes from groundwater wells, especially in Jabal Saman and Idleb, whereas Jisr-Ash-Shugur depends on the Orontes River. Due to drought and a lack of regulatory oversight, the number of irrigation wells has risen since 2011, severely reducing water supplies and driving up irrigation prices. High fuel and electricity costs, uncontrolled well drilling, broken machinery, and insufficient irrigation systems are some of the main obstacles. A lot of well owners would rather sell drinking water, which would cut down on irrigated land and crop cultivation. The needs of the stakeholders include subsidies for fuel and electricity, the development of alternative energy, well repairs, improvements to irrigation systems, the provision of agricultural inputs, and better local water management. This study emphasizes the critical need for focused interventions to support agriculture and livelihoods in Northwest Syria and offers significant insights for sustainable water management solutions.

Naming droughts: Historical perspectives on the scientific coining of “the Tinderbox Drought”

Most droughts go unnamed. At the time they are happening, they are generally referred to simply as “the drought.” After the fact, they are typically designated by a year or run of years rather than by a name: 1927–29, for instance. But in recent decades, proper names have increasingly been bestowed on droughts in southeast Australia in an informal although widely accepted practice. Examples include the Federation Drought, the World War II Drought, the Millennium Drought and, most recently, the Tinderbox Drought. This paper positions the practice of naming droughts within a longer history of naming weather extremes. It examines the implications of the naming practice for the investigation of droughts as complex objects of interdisciplinary knowledge that call for analysis from across the sciences, social sciences and humanities. And it considers the qualities and meanings attributed to the drought of 2017-19 by the name “Tinderbox.” Using the word “tinderbox” to describe environmental conditions has been criticised for naturalizing landscape flammability and so effacing human agency. But in fact the name “Tinderbox Drought” potentially enacts a semantic reversal that allows human-caused climate change to be reassociated discursively with recent and future drought events.

Examine the Role of Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in Recent Meteorological Drought in Sudan

Drought poses a serious threat to Sudan, causing water shortages, crop failures, hunger, and conflict. The relationships between Indo-Pacific teleconnections and drought events in Sudan are examined based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), anomalies, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), correlation, composite analysis, sequential Mann–Kendall test, and MK-trend test during the period of 1993–2022. The results of the SPI-1 values indicate that the extreme drought in Sudan in 2004 was an exceptional case that affected the entire region, with an SPI-1 value of −2 indicating extremely dry conditions. In addition, Sudan experienced moderate to severe drought conditions for several years (1993, 2002, 2008, 2009 and 2015). The Empirical Orthogonal Function showed that the first EOF mode (42.2%) was the dominant variability mode and had positive loading over most of the country, indicating consistent rainfall variation in the central, eastern, and western regions. Correlation analysis showed a strong significant relationship between June–September rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) (r ≤ 0.5). Furthermore, a weak positive influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on JJAS precipitation was observed (r ≤ 0.14). Various time lags in the range of ±12 months were examined, with the highest correlation (0.6) found at 9 month among the time lags of ±12 months. This study contributes to a better understanding of drought dynamics and provides essential information for effective drought management in Sudan. Further research is needed to explore the specific mechanisms driving these interactions and to develop tailored strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought events in the future.

A flexible data‐driven approach to co‐producing drought vulnerability assessments

AbstractIntensifying weather events are key characteristics of climate change that are fundamentally changing ecological disturbance regimes. Intensifying drought is a particular threat to species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services worldwide. Proactive drought adaptation measures are acutely needed, but without a better understanding of drought vulnerability at the appropriate scale and geography, such measures may not be effective, or even anticipated as potential options. A recent conceptual framework for ecological drought aligns a holistic suite of potential drivers with the key components of climate change vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). We leverage the ecological drought framework and components of vulnerability to introduce a six‐step process for developing a drought vulnerability assessment (DVA) that (1) is place‐based and avoids mismatches between assessment geography and management action, (2) uses existing empirical datasets and leverages machine learning techniques and remotely sensed data from a recent drought, (3) emphasizes the inclusion of stakeholders and the importance of data visualization and science communication, and (4) is flexible and adaptable to a wide range of planning contexts. We illustrate the DVA process with a case study for forested watersheds in the Missouri Headwaters (MH), Montana, USA, that is focused on the impact of an early 2000s drought event on forest health. We show how the DVA provides insights on drought vulnerability that are helpful starting points for co‐developing region‐specific management actions to prepare for the next drought, including strategies to enhance ecologically available water, reduce competition for water, promote ecosystem persistence under drought conditions, and prioritize sites for forest restoration, transition, or protection. The work described here provides a model for developing a DVA in other places that, when used in a participatory adaptation planning process, supports the implementation of effective adaptation strategies.

Technological and Dietary Responses to Holocene Climate Events in the Northern Great Basin

ABSTRACT Environmental instability caused by extended periods of drought no doubt impacted past human populations by limiting economic options and driving changes in social and technological organization. Here we examine two sets of Great Basin sites with occupations spanning the middle and late Holocene droughts: one associated with lowland springs and another with upland springs. We use dietary markers retrieved via starch granule analysis to evaluate whether artifact form relates to resources processed, how changes in tool form might be related to past changes in climate, environment, and social organization, and what, if any, differences mark upland vs. lowland resource use. Our data suggest that changes in tool form track with environmental fluctuations and that in both upland and lowland settings diets focused primarily on tubers and high-return seeds and that these profitable and stable food sources likely anchored populations during periods of drought.

Rainfall in California: Special Reference to 2023 Rains That Caused Floods

After years of crippling drought, California experienced a barrage of intense atmospheric river storms starting from late 2022 and continuing into early 2023 after so many years of extensive drought. This resulted in extensive flooding across the northern and central parts of the state. Major urban centers like San Francisco and Sacramento saw their wettest January on record, with damage to infrastructure and thousands evacuated in flooded areas. Southern California also saw higher than average rainfall. The extensive rainfall provided much-needed relief from the recent drought, helping to replenish reservoirs and groundwater basins, but also causing lot of catastrophic events due to California’s insufficient flood control infrastructure. Decades of underfunding and lack of coordination have left dams, levees, and urban flood control channels unable to handle increased precipitation, putting communities at risk. Historically, California has experienced periodic droughts, where precipitation falls well below average for multiple seasons or years. Significant droughts were observed in the past century such as in the years 1976–1977, 1987–1992, and 2012–2016. The most recent drought from 2012–2022 ranked as one of the most severe and most prolonged droughts on record in California. Although the 2023 storms helped in recovery from drought conditions, California must bolster its flood control systems and water storage capabilities. The state must prepare for a future where climate change drives intense precipitation alongside more intense droughts. Sustainable infrastructure and coordinated management will be vital for withstanding increased hydrological extremes. This article examines the rainfall extremes of 2023 within the context of California’s drought history and makes recommendations for long-term water security to overcome increased climate variability.

Winter Wheat Historic Trends and Yield Gaps in the Wheat State

AbstractWheat is the most widely grown grain crop in the world, and the United States is ranked as the fourth major wheat producer after China, India, and Russia. Kansas is the top winter wheat‐producing state in the United States and, as such, is nicknamed “The Wheat State.” A significant yield gap has existed in Kansas between potential winter wheat yields and the actual farm level average yield. Due to current conflict in the major wheat‐growing region of Ukraine and Russia and recent droughts, record decline in world wheat stocks was expected. To further understand winter wheat’s contribution to the economy, production trends, and relationship with climate variability, data available in the state of Kansas through annual winter wheat yield trials and USDA reports were used to study winter wheat historic trends and relations. Earn 0.5 CEUs in Crop Management by taking the quiz for the article at https://web.sciencesocieties.org/Learning‐Center/Courses.

Mangrove dynamics driven by Late Holocene drought at Laguna Bacalar, Mexico

Laguna Bacalar, one of Mexico's most significant near-coast lakes, remains underexplored in the context of its Late Holocene paleoecology. A 2,40 m long core was retrieved in northern Laguna Bacalar. Palynological and geochemical proxies were isolated and analyzed. Our findings reveal the intricate paleoecological dynamics and hydrodynamic shifts of this vital area in southeastern Mexico. Climate and ecological changes delineate three pivotal phases during the Late Holocene at Laguna Bacalar: (i) a period between 3600 and 3250 cal BP mirroring current climatic conditions with seasonal dry tropical forest and mangroves as the dominant vegetation and evidence of human activities indicated by the presence of fossil maize pollen, (ii) a relatively arid phase from 3250 to 2600 cal BP, influenced by heightened ENSO-driven precipitation variability and sea level rise favoring an estuarine environment at Laguna Bacalar, and (iii) a period between 2600 and 2200 cal BP, exhibiting hydrological conditions akin to contemporary conditions with wetland forest mangrove vegetation. These data ultimately underscore the region's susceptibility to regional climatic fluctuations and ecological resilience, providing a case study from which to predict future conditions and establish modern conservation policy for Laguna Bacalar and similar environments.

Article Review: Relationship between Toxoplasmosis and other Diseases

Water provision is sensitive to climate change, and agricultural production and food supply are sensitive to water availability. Water scarcity affects food security and agricultural economic development through changes in agricultural production and changes in the composition of produced goods. Recent droughts also led to a decrease in the volume of water allocated to agriculture, which led to a decrease in total agricultural production and exports, and this has subsequent impacts on food security and economic development. The research aimed to measure the impact of water scarcity on agricultural economic development for the period 1990-2022. The research included three behavioral equations with three endogenous variables: the cultivated area, the value of agricultural output, and the value of gross domestic product, and four exogenous variables: the amount of available water, agricultural labor, and the value of agricultural investments and the income of other sectors, the studied model is called the sequential model, which was estimated using the Recursive method, using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results indicated that increasing the amount of available water will lead to an increase in the cultivated areas by 141,129.2 dunums, and that increasing one thousand dunums of the cultivated area will increase agricultural output by 0.00821, and that agricultural labor is inversely proportional to agricultural output. It became clear that if the income of the rest of the sectors increased by one unit, the domestic product would increase by 0.1873. Water scarcity will reduce cultivated areas, which in turn will decrease agricultural output, causing the value of agricultural output to decrease and its contribution to the gross domestic product to decrease. In turn, it will have serious repercussions on agricultural economic development. Therefore, the research recommends the necessity of integrated water management and improving the efficiency of its use, as well as the application of modern technologies in agriculture, such as sprinkler irrigation, hydroponics, and redrawing crop compositions to ensure maximizing the net return per unit of water.