Examine the Role of Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in Recent Meteorological Drought in Sudan

Abstract

Drought poses a serious threat to Sudan, causing water shortages, crop failures, hunger, and conflict. The relationships between Indo-Pacific teleconnections and drought events in Sudan are examined based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), anomalies, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), correlation, composite analysis, sequential Mann–Kendall test, and MK-trend test during the period of 1993–2022. The results of the SPI-1 values indicate that the extreme drought in Sudan in 2004 was an exceptional case that affected the entire region, with an SPI-1 value of −2 indicating extremely dry conditions. In addition, Sudan experienced moderate to severe drought conditions for several years (1993, 2002, 2008, 2009 and 2015). The Empirical Orthogonal Function showed that the first EOF mode (42.2%) was the dominant variability mode and had positive loading over most of the country, indicating consistent rainfall variation in the central, eastern, and western regions. Correlation analysis showed a strong significant relationship between June–September rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) (r ≤ 0.5). Furthermore, a weak positive influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on JJAS precipitation was observed (r ≤ 0.14). Various time lags in the range of ±12 months were examined, with the highest correlation (0.6) found at 9 month among the time lags of ±12 months. This study contributes to a better understanding of drought dynamics and provides essential information for effective drought management in Sudan. Further research is needed to explore the specific mechanisms driving these interactions and to develop tailored strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought events in the future.