Rational Expectations Model Research Articles

Delayed Crises and Slow Recoveries

We present a rational expectations model of credit-driven crises, providing a new perspective to explain why credit booms can lead to severe financial crises and aftermath slow economic recoveries. In our model economy, banks can operate in two types of business a la Minsky's narratives. They are sequentially aware of the deterioration of fundamentals of the speculative business and decide whether to continue credit extension in that business or liquidate capital and move into the traditional business. However, because individual banks face uncertainty about how many of their peers have been aware, they rationally choose to extend credit in the speculative business for a longer time than is socially optimal, leading to an over-delayed crisis and consequently more banks being caught by the crisis. This in turn renders the financial crisis more severe and the subsequent economic recovery slower. Within a standard textbook macroeconomic growth setting, our model generates rich dynamics of economic booms, slowdowns, crashes, and recoveries.

Computing sunspot solutions to rational expectations models with timing restrictions

Abstract Rational expectations (RE) frameworks featuring informational constraints are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomic research. A recent strand of literature has explored the analytics of RE models with informational subperiods, in which the occurrence of exogenous shocks is period-specific and decision makers condition their own choices and expectations upon a sequence of nested information sets (timing restrictions). Assuming the unrestricted (full information) RE model satisfies saddle-path stability, this paper provides (i) necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of an uncountably infinite set of linearly perturbed solutions to its restricted (informationally constrained) counterpart, and (ii) an algorithm for computing the full set of sunspot solutions when equilibrium indeterminacy occurs.

The Investigation of a Wealth Distribution Model on Isolated Discrete Time Domains

A wealth distribution model on isolated discrete time domains, which allows the wealth to exchange at irregular time intervals, is used to describe the effect of agent’s trading behavior on wealth distribution. We assume that the agents have different degrees of risk aversion. The hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility function is employed to describe the degrees of risk aversion of agents, including decreasing relative risk aversion (DRRA), increasing relative risk aversion (IRRA), and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). The effect of agent’s expectation on wealth distribution is taken into account in our wealth distribution model, in which the agents are allowed to adopt certain trading strategies to maximize their utility and improve their wealth status. The Euler equation and transversality condition for the model on isolated discrete time domains are given to prove the existence of the optimal solution of the model. The optimal solution of the wealth distribution model is obtained by using the method of solving the rational expectation model on isolated discrete time domains. A numerical example is given to highlight the advantages of the wealth distribution model.

Behavioral economics and DSGE-modeling

The article considers the “behavioral” modification of the standard DSGE model proposed by X. Gabaix. In his model, agents behave in a boundedly rational manner, showing incomplete attention to macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, unlike other attempts to abandon the hypothesis of rational expectations in favor of a model of adaptive and/or static expectations, the Gabaix model is initially constructed taking into account the inattention of economic agents to macro variables. The consequence of bounded rationality is that monetary policy is less effective (compared to the model of rational expectations) and, conversely, fiscal policy is effective due to the fact that Ricardo equivalence is not fulfilled. If the inertia of inflation expectations is taken into account in the Gabaix model, it demonstrates that the interest rate has a positive effect on inflation in the long run. Bayesian estimates for the rationality coefficient in the Russian economy are presented. Moreover, attention to inflation is much lower than attention to the variable of economic activity.

Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change

This essay studies the fundamental causes of the monetary policy regime switches within rational expectations models. I introduce a threshold-switching monetary policy process into the model that links the policy stance to the fundamental shocks by an autoregressive regime strength index. It creates an expectations feedback mechanism between private agents’ policy forecasts and future policy regime outcomes. As demonstrated in a novel threshold-switching Fisherian model, well management of the private sector’s expectations of policy regime change can have the same effect as actually switching the regime. Contrastingly, failure to do so leads to unfavorable outcomes of policy intention. Then, I embed the new mechanism into a New Keynesian model. Along the way, I also develop an efficient non-simulation based threshold-switching Kalman filter, in conjunction with a solution method that accounts for the endogeneity of switching regimes, to estimate the nonlinear New Keynesian model. My key empirical findings are threefold. First, non-policy shocks have been instrumental in driving U.S. monetary policy regime changes during the post-World War II period. Most notably, markup shock explains 65.6% of variations in the policy regimes. Second, absent from markup shocks, eight of the eleven less aggressive regimes would not have happened during this history. Finally, I conclude that linking the private sector’s dynamic expectations formation and the Fed’s dilemma of the dual mandate in the presence of adverse supply shocks is a promising path towards providing micro-foundations for monetary policy regime shifts.

Recovering Heterogeneous Beliefs and Preferences from Asset Prices

We propose a novel information-theoretic approach to separately identify the risk preferences and beliefs of different types of financial market investors. Investors who allocate most of their wealth in large market capitalization stocks are risk averse and believe that the aggregate stock market return is strongly countercyclical. In contrast, investors in small-growth stocks are substantially less risk averse and believe in procyclical expected stock market returns. Our findings can reconcile the procyclical expected market returns found in investor survey data with the countercyclical expected returns implied by rational expectations models.

A Matter of Perspective: Mapping Linear Rational Expectations Models into Finite-Order VAR Form

This paper considers the characterization of the reduced-form solution of a large class of linear rational expectations models. I show that under certain conditions, if a solution exists and is unique, it can be cast in finite-order VAR form. I also investigate the conditions for the VAR form to be stationary with a well-defined residual variance-covariance matrix in equilibrium, for the shocks to be recoverable, and for local identification of the structural parameters for estimation from the sample likelihood. An application to the workhorse New Keynesian model with accompanying Matlab codes illustrates the practical use of the finite-order VAR representation. In particular, I argue that the identification of monetary policy shocks based on structural VARs can be more closely aligned with theory using the finite-order VAR form of the model solution characterized in this paper.

The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations

We solve a rational expectations model of price formation with nominal rigidity and information frictions analytically to study how dispersed information impacts inflation and inflation expectations, without imposing strong structural assumptions on the aggregate marginal cost. The closed-form solution implies an ARMA(1,1) nowcast error and an ARMA(1,2) one-step-ahead forecast error of inflation, both supported by the Survey of Professional Forecasters data. We derive a Phillips curve that links inflation, average inflation forecast (i.e., a first-order expectation), and the net effect of higher-order expectations (HOEs). We quantify the essential role of dispersed information in generating predictable average nowcast and forecast errors and estimate the net effect of HOEs on the Phillips curve.

Can Human Capital and Asset Management Improve the Financial Performance of Older Age Groups? Evidence from Europe

Extending Ehrlich et al.’s (2008, 2011) labor-theoretic, rational-expectations model of asset management (AM), we investigate the interplay between AM and portfolio choices of older-age households in a sample of 11 European countries plus Israel over 5 waves of the SHARE longitudinal data in the period 2004-2015. Our analysis shows that education, health, and other components of human capital, generally determine the reduced-form demand for, or portfolio shares of, risky assets, the derived-demand for asset management time, and the household’s portfolio returns. Moreover, we find that education and underlying health conditions affect these portfolio outcomes largely through proxies of time household heads devote to asset management. Our key findings hold up against a battery of robustness and internal validation tests based on reduced-form and structural IV regressions, alternative regression specifications, and alternative groups of investors. We also find that the effects of education on the demand for AM time, risky financial assets, and portfolio returns, become larger as the opportunity costs of AM fall with age, which supports the mechanism of the asset management hypothesis.

Announcements, Expectations, and Stock Returns with Asymmetric Information

Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days predict announcement day returns in the opposite direction. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic announcements quantitatively accounts for these findings. Under asymmetric information, average beliefs are not Bayesian: they underweight new information and positively predict subsequent belief errors. In addition, stock prices are partly driven by noise, and therefore negatively predict returns on announcement days when noise is revealed and the market corrects itself.

A Unified Theory of the Term Structure and the Beta Anomaly

Rational expectation models generally suggest that assets with more exposure to systematic risks should carry higher risk premia. However, several empirical findings challenge this result. I propose a novel generalized recursive smooth aversion model that allows agents to show different levels of aversion to short-run consumption risk and long-run shocks. I apply this model to a consumption-based asset pricing model in which the representative agent’s consumption process is subject to rare but large disasters. The calibrated model matches major asset pricing moments, while riskier assets could carry lower risk premia.

Does a Unique Solution Exist for a Nonlinear Rational Expectation Equation with Zero Lower Bound?

To formalize a nonlinear rational expectation model in macroeconomics as a functional equation, we investigate the existence of a unique solution. Assuming that the probability of large exogenous disturbance occurring is sufficiently small, we prove that a unique solution exists. This result provides a rigorous foundation for research on nonlinear rational expectation models as a natural extension of existing linear models.

Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation

• The dynamics of the BOP constrained growth model are analyzed. • Future growth is forecasted by means of a long-run component consistent with external equilibrium and a cyclical term. • Whenever the cyclical term, driven by current account deficits, is substantial, it conditions future growth rates. • Our findings are in sharp contrast with the predictions of forward-looking rational expectations models.

Arbitrary initial conditions and the dimension of indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models

Indeterminate equilibrium rational expectations (RE) models are ubiquitous in both theoretical and applied work in dynamic macroeconomics. The issue of characterizing the exact dimension of indeterminacy—i.e. of deriving the full set of causal and stable solutions to linear RE models—has only recently been addressed in the context of general and multivariate settings. This paper complements existing results by identifying bounds on the observable dimension of indeterminacy of linear RE models in the presence of arbitrary initial conditions. Implications for the estimation of indeterminate equilibrium RE models are discussed.

A FREQUENCY-DOMAIN APPROACH TO DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC MODELS

This article proposes a unified framework for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models with a variety of frequency-domain techniques, some established, some new. The solution methodology is applicable to a wide class of models and leads to straightforward construction of the spectral density for performing likelihood-based inference. We also generalize the well-known spectral decomposition of the Gaussian likelihood function to a composite version implied by several competing models. Taken together, these techniques yield fresh insights into the model’s theoretical and empirical implications beyond conventional time-domain approaches can offer. We illustrate the proposed framework using a prototypical new Keynesian model with fiscal details and two determinate monetary–fiscal policy regimes. The model is simple enough to deliver an analytical solution that makes the policy effects transparent under each regime, yet still able to shed light on the empirical interactions between US monetary and fiscal policies along different frequencies.

Time–varying rational expectations models

This paper develops a comprehensive theory for rational expectations models with time–varying (random) coefficients. Based on the Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem it develops a “linear algebra” in terms of Lyapunov exponents, defined as the asymptotic growth rates of trajectories. Together with their associated Lyapunov spaces they provide a perfect substitute for the eigenvalue/eigenspace analysis used in constant coefficient models. In particular, they allow the construction of explicit solution formulas similar to the standard case. These methods and their numerical implementation is illustrated using a canonical New Keynesian model with a time–varying policy rule and lagged endogenous variables.

Inattentive agents and inflation forecast error dynamics: A Bayesian DSGE approach

This paper studies a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with inattentive agents to explain the dynamic patterns of inflation forecast errors. Empirical findings suggest that inflation forecasts implied by the model are quite similar to survey expectations. This model dominates a full-information rational expectations model in its ability to account for why actual inflation is systematically associated with inflation expectations and survey forecast errors, and for generating excessively persistent forecast errors. Historical decomposition analysis reveals that supply shock and measurement errors in inflation are found to be dominant forces driving variations in inflation forecast errors, while secular shifts in inflation are generated mainly by supply and inflation target shocks.

Heterogeneous Interpretations of Public Disclosure, Price Efficiency, and Keynesian Beauty Contest

This paper examines how public information about the fundamental value of a firm affects the firm’s stock price behavior and efficiency in the presence of Keynesian beauty contests when such information is heterogeneously interpreted by investors. In an overlapping generations rational expectations model of capital markets, we show that, if transparency and clarity of a public disclosure are of comparable magnitude, clarity is of first-order importance in improving price efficiency. Moreover, marginally improving transparency can be detrimental to price efficiency if the initial level of transparency is already sufficiently high.

On the Effects of Restricting Short-Term Investment

Abstract We study the effects of policies proposed to address “short-termism” in financial markets. We examine a noisy rational expectations model in which investors’ exposures and information about fundamentals endogenously vary across horizons. In this environment, taxing or outlawing short-term investment doesn’t negatively affect the information in prices about long-term fundamentals. However, such a policy reduces short- and long-term investors’ profits and utility. Changing policies about the release of short-term information can help long-term investors—an objective of some policy makers—at the expense of short-term investors. Doing so also makes prices less informative and increases costs of speculation. Received June 24, 2018; editorial decision February 19, 2019 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Advertising Information, Advertising Precision and Resale Price Maintenance

As consumers use the retail price as an estimator of product quality, the producer expects the retail price to efficiently signal the quality information. However, in the presence of price competition among retailers, consumers cannot predict quality by observing prices because they cannot identify whether the price discounts result from quality downgrade, or just retail supply’s increase. Since market price movements send noises over quality judgement, the producer uses resale price maintenance to control noises from retail supply. When resale price maintenance is prohibited by antitrust law, a rational expectations model predicts that the manufacturer can replace resale price maintenance with advertising.