Rational Expectations Model Research Articles

Insider Horizon and Disclosure Policies

ABSTRACT We investigate the relationship between insider horizon and disclosure policy. First, we develop and analyze a rational expectations model assuming insiders are able to commit to a disclosure policy. Insiders with a short horizon prefer more disclosure and are willing to bear costs of disclosure to reduce information asymmetries among capital market participants. We then empirically test our predictions in the setting of newly public firms and firms where the CEO is approaching retirement. We find that firms with insiders that have a shorter horizon disclose more and experience lower information asymmetry. Our study contributes to the understanding of firms’ disclosure choices by suggesting that the horizon of insiders shapes a firm’s disclosure policy. JEL Classifications: G14; G32; D83.

The Timing of Technology Adoption in Network Industries

This paper analyzes the effect of network externalities on firms’ timing of new technology adoption in a network industry. In a pre-commitment game under Cournot competition, network effects tend to accelerate the timing of the leader and the follower regarding their adoption dates: under the rational expectations hypothesis and also under the firms’ output commitment. However, while an increase in network effects tends to reduce the discrepancy between the optimal social timing of the new technology adoption and the market-driven time of adoption in the rational expectations model, the opposite occurs under the output commitment game.

Rational disposition effects: Theory and evidence

The disposition effect is a longstanding puzzle in financial economics. This paper demonstrates that it is not intrinsically at odds with rational behavior. In a rational expectations model with asymmetrically informed investors, trading strategies as predicted by the disposition effect can arise as an optimal response to dynamic changes in the information structure. The model predicts that the disposition behavior of uninformed investors weakens after events that reduce information asymmetries. The data, trading records of 50,000 clients at a German discount brokerage firm from 1995 to 2000, are consistent with this prediction.

The negative value of private information in illiquid markets

In the standard perfectly competitive rational expectations model of information acquisition, the marginal benefit of private information to each trader is always positive. We show that with imperfect competition, characterized by a finite number of traders, the value of private information can be negative, resulting in a zero-information equilibrium even if information is free. This zero-information equilibrium arises when noise-trading volume is sufficiently large that price informativeness is weak, and when noise traders are sufficiently bullish or bearish. Given the evidence suggesting that retail traders behave as noise traders, our findings suggest that retail traders can play a significant role in investors' information-acquisition decisions in financial markets.

Simulating Multiple Equilibria in Rational Expectations Models With Occasionally-Binding Constraints

Simulating Multiple Equilibria in Rational Expectations Models With Occasionally-Binding Constraints

A Simple Rational Expectations Model of the Voltage Effect

A Simple Rational Expectations Model of the Voltage Effect

A Simple Rational Expectations Model of the Voltage Effect

A Simple Rational Expectations Model of the Voltage Effect

Linear Identification of Linear Rational-Expectations Models by Exogenous Variables Reconciles Lucas and Sims

Linear Identification of Linear Rational-Expectations Models by Exogenous Variables Reconciles Lucas and Sims

Do Designated Sales Agents in ATM Offerings Exploit Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift? Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper investigates whether designated sales agents hired to work on the At-the-Market (ATM) offerings act as liquidity traders and arbitrage apparent market inefficiencies such as post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). Those sales agents can compete to provide liquidity in the presence of asymmetric information and continuously sell their new equity shares at any time. We find that the supply of liquidity shocks from ATM offerings negatively impacts the cross-section of risk premia. Consistent with the prediction of a dynamic rational expectations model, the well-documented PEAD anomaly disappears in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). When analyzing reversal magnitudes around earnings announcements, we show attenuated return reversals in ATM REITs compared with non-ATM REITs. Furthermore, institutional ownership, institutional herding, and adverse selection cannot explain future returns in firms with good earnings surprises below their expected levels.

Advertising Spillover Effects on Private Labels

Although brand advertising increases demand for the originating brand, manufacturer advertising spillover effects on the demand for private label brands are positive, increasing consumers’ demand on private label brands. Given a positive correlation among in-store products, this study shows that national advertising benefits store brands of retailers. While consumers infer product quality by observing the prices and advertising, a higher correlation among in-store products leads to a larger spillover effect of national advertising on private labels. Although retailers free ride on manufacturer’s efforts, a rational expectations model shows that coordinated marketing activities initiated by retailers can reduce consumers’ perceptive risk, thus benefit advertised brands.

Optimization Under Rational Expectations: A Framework of Fully Coupled Forward-Backward Stochastic Linear Quadratic Systems

In this paper, we propose a general modeling framework for optimal control of stochastic fully coupled forward-backward linear quadratic (FBLQ) problems with indefinite control weight costs that stem from rational expectations models. We propose a new decoupling technique to obtain the optimal feedback control, which is accompanied by one kind of non-Riccati-type ordinary differential equation (ODE). By applying the completion-of-squares method, we prove the existence of the solutions for the obtained ODEs. The obtained results make it possible to compute the control and value function. For this FBLQ problem, the optimal control should depend on the entire trajectory of the state process. Several examples are given to illustrate our results. Funding: M. Hu’s research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) [Grant 11671231] and the Young Scholars Program of Shandong University [Grant 2016WLJH10]. S. Ji’s research was supported by the NSF [Grant 11571203]. X. Xue’s research was supported by “The Fundamental Research Funds of Shandong University,” the NSF [Grants 12001316 and 61907022], and the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province [Grant ZR2019BF015].

An Economic Model for Popular Event Promotions

Abstract This study provides a theoretic framework for price promotions on seasonal events and popular events, such as anniversary, Christmas, and World Soccer Cup. Firms engage in collective price promotions seems to contradict economic wisdom because promotions are less likely to stand out among competitors in popular events. In a rational expectations model, this study shows all players’ performance improve in the equilibrium. Furthermore, even less-famous goods benefit from collective price promotions in which the theoretic framework can provide a guideline to manufacturers and retailers. JEL classification number: D21, M21. Keywords: Event Promotions, Price-Quality Relationship, Advertising.

The efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations macroeconomics. How did they meet and live (happily) ever after?

This article contributes to the study of the historical relationship between macroeconomics and financial economics. We investigate the interactions, in the 1960s and 1970s, between two research programmes—“rational expectations macroeconomics” (or “new classical macroeconomics”) and the efficient market hypothesis. We uncover the back-and-forth-dialogue between these two research programmes, which took place along the 1970s. We identify Sargent’s contribution on the term structure of interest rates (and ensuing debates) as the starting point of this dialogue. We then highlight how rational expectations models reshaped the definition and assessment of the efficient market hypothesis in financial economics.

When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?

We attempt to replicate a seminal paper that offered support for the rational expectations hypothesis and reported evidence that markets with certain features aggregate dispersed information. The original results are based on only a few observations, and our attempt to replicate the key findings with an appropriately powered experiment largely fails. The resulting poststudy probability that market performance is better described by rational expectations than the prior information (Walrasian) model under the conditions specified in the original paper is very low. As a result of our failure to replicate, we investigate an alternate set of market features that combines aspects of the original experimental design. For these markets, which include both contingent claims and homogeneous dividend payments (as in many prediction markets), we do find robust evidence of information aggregation in support of the rational expectations model. In total, our results indicate that information aggregation in asset markets is fragile and should only be expected in limited circumstances.This paper was accepted by Bruno Biais, finance.Supplemental Material: The data and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4463 .

A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model

Investment expectations affect stock price volatility, making asset pricing more difficult. Correctly capturing investment expectations can help alleviate this problem. In this paper, we analyze the rational expectations properties of existing volatility models. Second, we explore a volatility model based on adaptive expectations by using mathematical methods and the applicable conditions and continuity feature of the adaptive expectations volatility model. Third, under the assumption of adaptive expectations, we construct adaptive expectations GARCH (ADGARCH) and LSTM-ADGARCH models. Using daily trading data from the Shanghai stock index and SPX500 for the period 2015–2021, we find that the volatility model based on adaptive expectations has more explanatory power than one based on rational expectations.

Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach

I propose a simple heuristic to explain how people estimate the probability of an event that has binary outcomes, such as a boom vs. a recession. Central to this approach is a psychological trait called “base-rate neglect” — a tendency for people to ignore prior probabilities in favor of more salient diagnostic information. When making predictions, people’s decisions are experience-based, but are influenced by base-rate neglect. I construct an algorithm to replicate this behavior, and find that its predictions match key features of the Anxious Index in the Survey of Professional Forecasters and stock market expectations in the Surveys of Consumers. If investors use this heuristic to form expectations in a consumption-based asset pricing model, both the equity premium and its volatility will be higher than those in a rational expectations model.

The role of dispersed information in inflation and inflation expectations

We solve a rational expectations model of price formation with nominal rigidity and information frictions analytically to study how dispersed information impacts inflation and inflation expectations, without imposing strong structural assumptions on the aggregate marginal cost. We derive a Phillips curve that links inflation, average inflation forecast (i.e., a first-order expectation), and the net effect of higher-order expectations (HOEs). We quantify the essential role of dispersed information in generating inflation inertia and predictable average nowcast and forecast errors. The estimated effect from dispersed information explains a significant inflation variation, and the net effect of HOEs provides a novel micro-foundation for markup shocks.

Pigouvian Cycles

Current and expected unemployment rates contain information that is highly useful to estimate the effect of news about TFP and to allow a general equilibrium rational expectations model to generate Pigouvian cycles: a large fraction of the comovement of output, consumption, investment, employment, and real wages is explained by noise about TFP. These results emerge because of the low-frequency negative relationship between unemployment and TFP growth. The model predicts that the start (end ) of most US recessions is associated with agents realizing that previous enthusiastic (lukewarm) expectations about future TFP would not be met. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E24, E32, E43, E52)

Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions

Standard solution methods for linear rational expectations models assume a time-invariant structure. Recent work has gone beyond this by formulating solution methods for linear rational expectations models subject to structural changes, such as parameter shifts and policy reforms, that are announced in advance. This paper contributes to this literature by presenting solutions for some cases – imperfectly credible policy reforms; delayed announcement to some fraction of agents; and indeterminacy of the terminal solution (multiple equilibria) – that received little attention so far. These solutions are illustrated using several applications, including a New Keynesian model in which the Taylor principle is not satisfied by the terminal structure.

The Unavoidability of Low Inflation–Low Output Traps

Abstract Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the monies of the developed world have been unbacked by any formal promise of convertibility. Yet, inflation has typically undershot, not overshot, central bank targets over the past couple decades. The low, while generally positive, inflation rate has (more arguably) been associated with low output and low growth. In this article, I consider these observations through the lens of a class of representative agent rational expectations models with nominal (price-setting) frictions and the possibility of firm entry/exit. I show that for any level of nominal frictions (no matter how small) and for any monetary policy rule that satisfies a set of weak restrictions, there is a large set of equilibria that exhibit permanently low inflation, low output, and low nominal interest rates. These equilibria can only exhibit positive long-run inflation if growth is low and the specification of nominal frictions (i.e. the Phillips curve) takes an unconventional but nonetheless empirically plausible form.