An asymptotic analysis of the tail probabilities for the dynamics of a soliton wave $U(x,t)$ under a stochastic time-dependent force is developed. The dynamics of the soliton wave $U(x,t)$ is described by the Korteweg--de Vries (KdV) equation with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions under a stochastic time-dependent force, which is modeled as a time-dependent Gaussian noise with amplitude $\epsilon$. The tail probability considered is $w(b):=P(\sup_{t\in[0,T]}U(x,t)>b)$, as $b\to\infty$, for some constant $T>0$ and a fixed $x$, which can be interpreted as tail probability of the amplitude of a water wave on the shallow surface of a fluid or long internal wave in a density-stratified ocean. Our goal is to characterize the asymptotic behaviors of $w(b)$ and evaluate the tail probability of the event that the soliton wave exceeds a certain threshold value under a random force term. Such rare-event calculation of $w(b)$ is especially useful for fast estimation of the risk of the potential damage that co...