Quantitative Assessment Of Impact Research Articles

Scientometric analysis of papers published in 1989-2018 of <i>Journal of Lake Sciences</i> based on CiteSpace and CNKI database

湖泊科学是研究湖泊及其流域在人与自然相互作用下对生态系统、环境间的关系的一门交叉学科.为了探究湖泊科学研究的发展与研究前沿，通过对《湖泊科学》创刊30年（1989-2018年）来发表的全部2555篇论文的统计，分析了年发文量与影响因子年际变化趋势，并运用CiteSpace V软件绘制了可视化知识图谱.结果表明：30年来《湖泊科学》年发文量、被引频次及影响因子整体呈稳步增加的趋势，期刊拥有较为稳定与广泛的学术影响力.相关研究范围主要涉及全球气候变化、湖泊生态系统及群落结构、湖泊富营养化等方面，研究区域则多为湖泊分布较广、生态系统较脆弱且环境问题较为突出地区.文献关键词的分析得出了研究热点与趋势的三个阶段.CiteSpace对作者所在机构的分析表明，近10年来，高校已经超过研究所成为期刊作者主体.关键词词频分析表明，太湖、沉积物、富营养化一直是刊发内容的热点，而近10年来，浮游植物及群落结构、三峡水库逐渐成为热点.随着湖泊研究与遥感技术、统计与模拟、环境化学等进一步交叉，湖泊科学研究向着深入化、精细化方向发展.目前，湖泊科学研究已形成了湖泊水文与生态系统、湖泊生态恢复与环境评价、沉积环境与全球变化等较为稳定的研究团队，高校与科研院所成为湖泊研究主体，具有显著的区域性和集聚效应.期刊论文读者下载量统计分析表明，《湖泊科学》官网（www.jlakes.org）已经成为读者阅读和下载论文的主要渠道.根据知网数据库的统计分析，30年来，刊发论文均获得了不同数量的读者引用，单篇最高被引636次，篇均被引24次.期刊高被引论文分析说明，湖泊作为生态环境保护的重要载体，加强湖泊污染问题的预防、湖泊富营养化预测及其生态修复技术等业已成为相关研究的热点与趋势所在.同时，随着全国湖泊流域数据平台的建设与大数据融合，湖泊流域物质交换、人文影响定量评估、健康与管理、湖泊湿地生态系统保护等方面的研究将进一步加快，而湖泊研究成果在区域的应用，将为改善水环境质量，确保区域生态环境安全，为湖泊生态保护及环境改善提供有力支撑.;Lake science is an interdisciplinary subject to study the relationship between human and nature interaction on ecosystem and environment in lakes and their watersheds. In order to explore the development and research frontiers of lake science in China, this paper analyzes the interannual variation trend of the annual output and impact factors through the statistics of 2555 papers of the Journal of Lake Sciences published in the past 30 years (1989-2018) and the visual knowledge map by CiteSpace V. The results show that the annual volume, citation frequency and impact factors of the Journal of Lake Science display a steady increase trend, and indicate the stable and extensive academic influence of the journal. The relevant research scope mainly involves global climate change, lake ecosystems and community structure, lake eutrophication and other aspects. Meanwhile, the research focuses on the areas of lakes widely distributed and fragile ecosystems. According to the keywords, the research hotspots and trends can be divided into three stages. Analysis of the author's structure shows that universities have overtaken research institutes to become the main parts of journal authors in the past 10 years. The analysis of the key words frequency demonstrates that Taihu Lake, sediment and eutrophication have been hot topics in the publication. In the past 10 years, phytoplankton and its community structure, the Three Gorges Reservoir have gradually become hotspots. With the further intersection of lake research and remote sensing technology, statistics and simulation, environmental chemistry and so on, lake research field will become more in-depth and refined. At present, lake research has formed relatively stable research teams in lake hydrology and ecosystem, lake ecological restoration and environmental assessment, sedimentary environment and global change. Universities and research institutes have become the main body of lake research with obvious regional and agglomeration effects. Statistical analysis of the download volume of the journal shows that the journal website has become the main channel for readers to study and download papers. The statistical analysis of CNKI database suggests that the published papers have been cited by different numbers of readers in the past 30 years, with the highest citation frequency of 636 times and 24 citations per article. Analysis of high-cited papers indicate that, as an important carrier of ecological environment protection, strengthening the prevention of lake pollution, prediction of lake eutrophication and ecological restoration technology have become hotspots and trends in related research. At the same time, the research on material exchange, quantitative assessment of human impact, health and management, and protection of lake wetland ecosystem will be further accelerated with the construction of the national lake basin data platform and the integration of big data. The application of lake research results in the region will provide strong support for improving the quality of the water environment, ensuring the safety of regional ecological environment, and improving lake ecological protection and environment.

A methodological framework to address gaps in the evidence on infrastructure impacts: the case of an Indian railway project evaluation

ABSTRACTInfrastructure is a key area of public investment and development cooperation, and can be seen as a critical enabler of trade and integration. Stakeholders increasingly demand evidence on the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure such as railways, in part because these investments typically lock in development patterns for decades. In this article we take stock of the main findings, methodological approaches, gaps and caveats of the current literature with a focus on railways. Based on this analysis, we present a methodology for an impact evaluation framework which builds on existing knowledge and addresses some of these shortcomings. Beyond the dearth of empirical evidence on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of infrastructure, we discuss critiques of the currently prevalent methodological toolbox. Using a real-world railway project in India, the Konkan Railway, we exemplify how a rigorous quantitative impact assessment can integrate inter-disciplinary and mixed-methods features to address these issues. Specifically, we apply different quasi-experimental techniques on the level of intermediate and ultimate outcome and impact indicators, using census, survey and satellite data and information from document analyses, interviews and focus group discussions. We draw on insights from economics, sociology, engineering and geography in making sense of large infrastructure projects and their impacts.

Shadow economy growth in Ukraine as a negative factor of its development

Shadow economy growth in Ukraine as a negative factor of its development

Assessing Impact to Infrastructures Due to Tephra Fallout From Öræfajökull Volcano (Iceland) by Using a Scenario-Based Approach and a Numerical Model

Mt. Oraefajokull is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in Iceland with potential for a VEI6 eruption and the generation of many severe associated hazards. It is not a frequently erupting volcano with two eruptions in the last 1100 years, in 1362 and 1727-28. During the 1362 eruption 10 km3 of freshly fallen tephra was emitted, the eruption plume reached the stratosphere and was dispersed offshore towards mainland Europe. In this study we investigate the possible impact due to tephra fallout to critical infrastructures in Iceland namely – roads, airports, electrical power-lines – in case of a new eruption at Oraefajokull of similar intensity as in 1362. The analysis is done by running several times the VOL-CALPUFF dispersal model to simulate the dispersal of ash in the atmosphere and its deposition on the ground. The resulting maps show the probability of exceeding critical thickness of the tephra fall. Critical infrastructures have been added to the analysis to get a quantitative assessment of the potential impact. The results indicate that in case of an event similar to the 1362 eruption, the tephra fallout could be expected over most of the country, with higher likelihood on the eastern side. The tephra fallout is likely to have a severe impact in the proximity of the volcano, generating a deposit with a load of up to 1000 kg/m2. The likelihood of failure for more than 160 km of the electrical power-line and for critical driving conditions on about 900 km of the main ring road is between 50-100%. The probability that the tephra fall will affect three of the main domestic airports is higher than 50%. An eruption of this magnitude is likely to affect commuting and communication between the greater Reykjavik area, where the government resides, and the rest of the country. Our analysis also reveals the limitations of current knowledge and understanding of the Oraefajokull volcano and highlights the need for further studies on past activity to better characterize its future behavior.

Primary development and validation of a quantitative health policy impact assessment tool (HEPIAT): The case of Iranian targeted subsidy plan.

Background: As a primary phase of a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) on the Iranian Targeted Subsidy Plan (TSP), this study was conducted to assess the psychometric properties of a newly developed quantitative Health Policy Impact Assessment Tool (HEPIAT). Methods: In 2014, multistage cluster sampling was employed to recruit 509 key informants in Sanandaj, Iran, to participate in this cross-sectional study. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to develop the initial draft of HEPIAT. Content validity was determined by a consensus panel of experts, and construct validity and factor structure of the HEPIAT were assessed using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA). Reliability was assessed utilizing the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and the test– retest reliability coefficient. Results: Applying EFA, the optimal solution including 35 items and 6 factors was emerged, which accounted for 64.94% of the total variance. The mean items’ relevancy, clarity, simplicity, and their total mean±SD score were 88.3±0.2, 90.1±0.5, 86.1±0.7, and 89.6±0.4, respectively. The scores of intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) and internal consistency reliability for all the factors were ranged from 0.67 to 0.89. HEPIAT demonstrated an appropriate validity, reliability, functionality, and simplicity. Conclusion: Although further works in different settings are warranted, HEPIAT may be a practical and useful quantitative instrument in socioeconomic-related HIAs aimed to inform policymakers and stakeholders on the health impacts of their decisions and plans.

The Risk to The Health of the Population Exposed to the Influence of the Road-Car Complex

Growth of vehicle-to-population ratio is accompanied by environmental pollutants growth.This paper deals with health risk indicators of gaseous and dust components in environment result from vehicles operation. A quantitative assessment of road-cars operation impact at different levels of air pollution. is provided. Value of public health risk indicator at different values of air pollution caused by road-cars operation was determined. Dependence of public health risk on distance from the roads with different traffic intensity was determined. Growth of vehicle-to-population ratio resulted in high level of air pollution formation in megalopolises, caused by fuel combustion; road surface destruction and accumulation of braking system and tires wastes. Solid particles in atmospheric air samples by 70 % consists of aluminosilicates, which provide fibrogenic effect, contains heavy metal and substances with a pronounced carcinogenic effect (Benz-(a)-pyrene, dibenz-(a, h)-anthracene, Benz-(B)-fluoranthene and chrysene). It was shown that non-carcinogenic risk caused by vehicle emissions in case of traffic intensity constituting 2500–3000 cars per hour for population up to 30 years old was determined as negligible; up to 40 years — as moderate, at the age of 50 years — as high and for the age over 53 years as very high. Respiratory and cardiovascular systems were determined as the most susceptive. Dependence of the risk level on distance from the road is determined.

Impact of solar PV self-consumption policies on distribution networks and regulatory implications

The sustained cost reduction of solar photovoltaics (PV) modules together with the introduction of self-consumption policies is transforming passive electricity consumers into active ones (prosumers). However, self-consumption policies may present very different designs and results mainly depending on the schemes that are put in place. Policy design implementations can have important consequences on the PV sizing and on the deployment rate, which impact the overall power sector from both a technical and an economic perspective. Previous analyses have focused on the existing relation between tariff design and self-consumption in terms of investment decisions made by prosumers or on how to ensure system fixed-cost recovery by preventing undesirable cross-subsidies among consumers. However, little attention has been paid so far to the effects of self-consumption policy design on the distribution networks, where most prosumers are connected. On this purpose, this paper performs a power flow-based quantitative assessment of such impact, using European representative distribution networks, and by discussing potential drawbacks which can be faced under different PV penetration scenarios and when different policies are put in place. Results show that the size of the installations (driven by the self-consumption policy incentives) has a great impact on the voltage and thermal limit violations, which is sometimes even higher than the impact of the PV penetration level. An in-depth discussion on the regulatory implications is also reported. The need to improve the tariff designs, so that they also reflect the extra costs in the distribution networks is discussed. Then, alternatives to avoid or defer network investments are proposed including the use of curtailment, the revision of current voltage limits, possibly too stringent in some countries, and the application of smart grid technologies. Finally, the key role of aggregator to provide flexibility services is identified.

The impact of expressway snowmelt agent usage on the environment in an extreme freezing snow and sleet condition

During Jan 11-Feb 2, 2008, affected by cold air, a rare cryogenic sleet and snow weather process occurred in the southern China. To cope with this extreme weather condition, and to secure the expressway safety, for the first time some expressways used snowmelt agent in large areas. In order to make quantitative impact assessment for the snowmelt agent usage on roadside ecological environment under these extreme sleet and snow condition, field sampling surveys were conducted on the North Guangdong section and the Hunan Leiyi section of Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, where the most snowmelt agent used on, in March 2008. The results showed that the snowmelt agents were dominated by salts, of which the main components are sodium chloride (NaCl) and sodium sulfate (NaSO4). After deicing, the concentrations of chloride, sulfate and sodium ions in water sampling from drainage edge ditches were (19.89±19.11) mgL−1, (45.73±29.67) mgL−1 and (14.41±16.65) mgL−1, respectively, which is 3.07 times, 2.08 times and 8.58 times that in the water outside the ditches; and these ion concentrations outside the ditches are slightly higher than that in the river nearby. The concentrations of these ions in the soil within 20 meter range of vertical distance from road exhibited a downward trend with the increase of distance from road. In the soil close to expressway (0.5-2.5 m), the main components of snowmelt agents accumulated within the depth of 10-20 cm; and soils a little bit far from expressway are not affected. In some road section, snow residue containing snowmelt agents were concentrated on roadside plant growth area, where the vegetation were killed by salt damage.

Quantitative assessment of environmental impact of biologics manufacturing using process mass intensity analysis.

Process mass intensity (PMI) is a benchmarking metric to evaluate the efficiency of a manufacturing process, which is indicative of the environmental impact of the process. Although this metric is commonly applied for small molecule manufacturing processes, it is less commonly applied to biologics. In this study, an Excel based tool developed by the ACS GCI Pharmaceutical Roundtable was used to calculate PMI of different manufacturing processes for a monoclonal antibody (mAb). For the upstream process, three different versions were compared: fed-batch, fed-batch with N-1 perfusion, and perfusion in the N-stage bioreactor. For each upstream process version, an appropriate downstream operational mode was evaluated from the following: a column chromatography process utilizing Protein A and anion exchange (AEX) resin, a Protein A column and an AEX membrane, and a three-column periodic counter-current (3C PCC) chromatography process for Protein A and an AEX membrane. The impact of these different process variations on PMI was evaluated. Of all the process inputs, water contributes about 92-94% of the overall PMI. Additionally, the upstream processes and the chromatography steps account for 32-47 and 34-54% of the overall PMI, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify opportunities for further reducing PMI. These data indicate that a semicontinuous manufacturing process (perfusion, 3C PCC, and AEX membrane) is the most efficient process, resulting in a 23% reduction of PMI when compared with the fed batch and two-column chromatography process. Together, PMI can be used to guide the development of efficient and environmentally sustainable mAb manufacturing processes. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 34:1566-1573, 2018.

The Efficiency of the Interaction between the Government and Business Structures: the Content of the Definition and Experience of its Quantitative Assessment

In different periods of modern history, the development of the state has always been based on certain models of interaction between the government and business, which were the most preferred ones at a particular historical moment. The article analyzes the essence of the concepts of «interaction between the government and business structures», «mechanisms of interaction», the authors also show that when determining the feasibility of interaction between the government and business in various forms and spheres, it is necessary to take into account the impact of such interaction, the characteristics of the existing models of interaction between the executive authorities and the business community. The article evaluates the potential of interaction between the government and business in terms of economic assessment of the feasibility of state regulation measures, it shows the features of quantitative assessment of the regulatory impact of the projects adopted by regulatory legal acts in the Khabarovsk territory, consistently included in the TOP 6 regions-the leaders of the Russian Federation to improve the interaction between the government and business in the period from 2014 till 2017.

Climate variability and sardine recruitment in the California Current: A mechanistic analysis of an ecosystem model

AbstractRecruitment varies substantially in small pelagic fish populations. Understanding of the mechanisms linking environment to recruitment is essential for the effective management of fisheries resources. In this study, we used a fully coupled end‐to‐end ecosystem model to study the effect of climate variability on sardine recruitment in the California Current System during 1965–2006. Ocean variability was represented by ROMS hydrodynamic and NEMURO biogeochemical models, and sardine population dynamics was simulated through a full life cycle individual‐based model. Model analysis was designed to elucidate how changes in abiotic and biotic conditions may impact the spawning habitats, early life stage survival, and ultimately recruitment of sardine. Our findings revealed the importance of spatial processes to shape early life stages dynamics. Shifts in spawning habitats were dictated by the spatial variations in temperature and the behavioral movement of adults. Additionally, the spatial match of eggs with warmer temperatures and larvae with their prey influenced their survival. The northward shifts in spawning locations and the accomplishment of good recruitment in warmer years agreed with existing knowledge. Egg production and survival during egg and yolk‐sac larval stages were key factors to drive the long‐term variations in recruitment. Finally, our analysis provided a quantitative assessment of climate impact on year‐to‐year variation in sardine recruitment by integrating multiple hypotheses.

Sustainability Assessment for Indirect Potable Reuse: A Case Study from Reno, Nevada.

A triple bottom line (TBL) approach was used to examine the trade-offs between potential reclaimed water management strategies in a closed basin. The goals of the water management strategy included minimizing water source shortages, ensuring safe and resilient future water supplies, and protecting inland ecosystems through adequate surface flows. The TBL approach consisted of quantitative and qualitative impact assessments of social, environmental, and economic criteria. This research examined how potable reuse of reclaimed water addresses water needs in a closed basin such as maintaining water quality, managing reclaimed water disposal, meeting growing water demand, balancing groundwater extraction rates with inflows, preserving inland ecosystems, and ensuring a locally controlled safe drinking water source. The TBL assessment first evaluated water stress based on water demand and supply under status quo conditions. The results were compared with the potable reuse scenario, which provides more environmental and social benefits than the status quo scenario.

Optimal molecular design towards an environmental friendly solvent recovery process

This paper presents a novel Computer Aided Molecular Design (CAMD) methodology for the design of solvents with consideration of environmental impact during the extraction and recovery processes. Throughout the years, CAMD techniques have been widely applied to design novel molecules for various applications, especially solvents. Most of the works in this area are only focusing on designing solvents that can achieve its functionality. However, limited works consider safety, health and environmental impacts of the process in which the solvent is applied. In this work, a quantitative assessment of the total environmental burden for solvent recovery process is incorporated into a single stage CAMD framework. The CAMD formulation includes molecular properties that affect the quantitative assessment of the environmental impact of a process. A multi-objective solvent design framework is then solved using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) weighting approach to design solvents that satisfy various target properties. With this approach, the generated solvents can simultaneously improve the overall environmental characteristic of a process and give a better balance of performance for a set of predefined properties. To illustrate the proposed methodology, a case study on solvent design for residual oil extraction from palm pressed fibre is presented.

Реформирование внутреннего рынка газа России как фактор конкурентоспособности добывающих компаний на международных рынках газа

The paper considers one of the measures proposed by the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) to deregulate domestic gas market: abolition of lower boundary of gas prices for wholesale buyers, where two conditions inherent in gas market still remain: vertical structure of monopolist and the one export channel for pipeline gas. The author analyses the impact of proposed reforms on independent Russian gas companies competitiveness. The purpose is to provide domestic gas market reformation qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment of independent gas producers impact. As a result, the most likely implications of reforms are theoretically determined and quantitative assessment of their impact on the independent producer is provided.

Spatio-temporal patterns of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in cattle between 2007 and 2015 and quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the disease in Niger.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Niger, with outbreaks occurring every year. Recently, there was an increasing interest from veterinary authorities to implement preventive and control measures against FMD. However, for an efficient control, improving the current knowledge on the disease dynamics and factors related to FMD occurrence is a prerequisite. The objective of this study was therefore to obtain insights into the incidence and the spatio-temporal patterns of transmission of FMD outbreaks in Niger based on the retrospective analysis of 9-year outbreak data. A regression tree analysis model was used to identify statistically significant predictors associated with FMD incidence, including the period (year and month), the location (region), the animal-contact density and the animal-contact frequency. This study provided also a first report on economic losses associated with FMD. From 2007 to 2015, 791 clinical FMD outbreaks were reported from the eight regions of Niger, with the number of outbreaks per region ranging from 5 to 309. The statistical analysis revealed that three regions (Dosso, Tillabery and Zinder), the months (September, corresponding to the end of rainy season, to December and January, i.e., during the dry and cold season), the years (2007 and 2015) and the density of contact were the main predictors of FMD occurrence. The quantitative assessment of the economic impacts showed that the average total cost of FMD at outbreak level was 499euros, while the average price for FMD vaccination of one outbreak was estimated to be more than 314euros. Despite some limitations of the clinical data used, this study will guide further research into the epidemiology of FMD in Niger and will promote a better understanding of the disease as well as an efficient control and prevention of FMD.

Quantitative Impact Assessment of Sewer Condition on Health Risk

Due to a variety of contaminants in floodwater, exposure to urban pluvial flooding may pose a health risk to humans. In-sewer defects may cause increased pluvial flooding, possibly increasing health risks. This paper addresses the impact of in-sewer defects on urban pluvial flooding and, subsequently, on infection probabilities for humans. As such, it provides a necessary input for risk-informed sewer maintenance strategies in order to preserve the hydraulic performance of a sewer system. Critical locations in sewer networks can be safeguarded through detecting changes in hydraulic properties of the sewer system, by using monitoring equipment or alternative inspection methods. Two combined sewer systems in The Netherlands with different characteristics are studied. The catchment-wide average infection probability was calculated using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) and flooding frequencies from Monte Carlo simulations with a hydrodynamic model. For the studied catchments, it is concluded that the occurrence of flooding is significantly affected by sediment deposits and, consequently, the infection probability as well. The impact of sediment deposits on infection probabilities depends on sewer systems characteristics and varies within the catchment. The results in this paper also demonstrate that further research on the relationship between flood duration and infection probabilities is required.

Impacts of onshore wind energy production on birds and bats: recommendations for future life cycle impact assessment developments

Models for quantifying impacts on biodiversity from renewable energy technologies are lacking within life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). We aim to provide an overview of the effects of wind energy on birds and bats, with a focus on quantitative methods. Furthermore, we investigate and provide the necessary background for how these can be integrated into new developments of LCIA models in future. We reviewed available literature summarizing the effects of wind energy developments on birds and bats. We provide an overview of available quantitative assessment methods that have been employed outside of the LCIA framework to model the different impacts of wind energy developments on wildlife. Combining the acquired knowledge on impact pathways and associated quantitative methods, we propose possibilities for future approaches for a wind energy impact assessment methodology for LCIA. Wind energy production has impacts on terrestrial biodiversity through three main pathways: collision, disturbance, and habitat alterations. Birds and bats are consistently considered the most affected taxonomic groups, with different responses to the before-mentioned impact pathways. Outside of the LCIA framework, current quantitative impact assessment prediction models include collision risk models, species distribution models, individual-based models, and population modeling approaches. Developed indices allow scaling of species-specific vulnerability to mortality, disturbance, and/or habitat alterations. Although insight into the causes behind collision risk, disturbance, and habitat alterations for bats and birds is still limited, the current knowledge base enables the development of a robust assessment tool. Modeling the impacts of habitat alterations, disturbance, and collisions within an LCIA framework is most appropriate using species distribution models as those enable the estimation of species’ occurrences across a region. Although local-scale developments may be more readily feasible, further up-scaling to global coverage is recommended to allow comparison across regions and technologies, and to assess cumulative impacts.

Evaluation of the impact of Bus Rapid Transit on air pollution in Mexico City

Mexico City's bus rapid transit (BRT) network, Metrobus, was introduced in an attempt to reduce congestion, increase city transport efficiency and cut air polluting emissions. In June 2005, the first BRT line in the metropolitan area began service. We use the differences-in-differences technique to make the first quantitative assessment of the policy impact of a BRT system on air polluting emissions. The air pollutants considered are carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter of less than 10 μm (PM10), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). The ex-post analysis uses real field data from air quality monitoring stations for periods before and after BRT implementation. Results show that BRT constitutes an effective environmental policy, reducing emissions of CO, NOX, and PM10.

Multi-hazard loss estimation for shaking and tsunami using stochastic rupture sources

This study develops a probabilistic multi-hazard loss estimation methodology for coastal communities which are exposed to cascading shaking-tsunami hazards caused by offshore mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. The method captures the common source effects for simulating shaking and tsunami hazards and risks. It facilitates the quantitative evaluation of multi-hazard loss for coastal communities by accounting for uncertainties associated with loss estimation based on novel stochastic earthquake source modeling and state-of-the-art shaking-tsunami fragility modeling. A case study is set up to illustrate an application of the developed method to Miyagi Prefecture by focusing on possible large seismic events in the Tohoku region of Japan. The quantitative multi-hazard impact assessment results serve as effective means to make decisions regarding shaking-tsunami disaster risk reduction.

A method for quantitative assessment of vehicle reliability impact on road safety

Abstract Russia ranks first among countries of Europe and North America as to fatal road accidents per 100,000 residents. The share of road accidents in the Russian Federation due to operation of malfunctioning vehicles is 3.6% of the total number of road accidents, and it still remains high as compared to European countries. Therefore, relevance of the study is conditioned by the need to take urgent measures for reduction of the number of road accidents occurring due to poor technical condition of vehicles. Reduction of the number of road accidents for this reason is possible by enhancing the operational reliability of vehicles. The purpose of the study is to develop a method for quantitative assessment of the vehicle reliability influence on traffic safety. The method is based on an analysis of the vehicle as a complex technical system, its structural elements having the greatest impact on traffic safety. The method includes calculation of time between failures and time for restoration of subsystems, assemblies and parts, as well as calculation of the probability of failure-free operation. As a result of method application, recommendations to replacement intervals of vehicle elements depending on the required probability of failure-free operation are provided. Key findings are the following. The described method allows assessing the actual reliability of a vehicle and contribution of its individual elements to it. In order to control the reliability by maintenance tools, the method allows determining replacement intervals for vehicle elements depending on the required probability of failure-free operation.