A method for quantitative assessment of vehicle reliability impact on road safety

Abstract

Abstract Russia ranks first among countries of Europe and North America as to fatal road accidents per 100,000 residents. The share of road accidents in the Russian Federation due to operation of malfunctioning vehicles is 3.6% of the total number of road accidents, and it still remains high as compared to European countries. Therefore, relevance of the study is conditioned by the need to take urgent measures for reduction of the number of road accidents occurring due to poor technical condition of vehicles. Reduction of the number of road accidents for this reason is possible by enhancing the operational reliability of vehicles. The purpose of the study is to develop a method for quantitative assessment of the vehicle reliability influence on traffic safety. The method is based on an analysis of the vehicle as a complex technical system, its structural elements having the greatest impact on traffic safety. The method includes calculation of time between failures and time for restoration of subsystems, assemblies and parts, as well as calculation of the probability of failure-free operation. As a result of method application, recommendations to replacement intervals of vehicle elements depending on the required probability of failure-free operation are provided. Key findings are the following. The described method allows assessing the actual reliability of a vehicle and contribution of its individual elements to it. In order to control the reliability by maintenance tools, the method allows determining replacement intervals for vehicle elements depending on the required probability of failure-free operation.