PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 长江中游城市群水-碳-生态足迹变化特征及其平衡性分析 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202010182654 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金委重大项目(41890824);河北省自然科学基金(E2020202117);河北省普通高等学校青年拔尖人才计划项目(BJ2020019) Water-carbon-ecological footprint change characteristics and its balance analysis in the Triangle of Central China Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41890824), Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (E2020202117), Youth Top Talent Program of Hebei Provincial Department of Education (BJ2020019). 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:长江中游城市群是长江经济带三大跨区域城市群支撑之一,实现该区域高效协同发展对于打造全国重要增长极具有重要意义。基于水-碳-生态足迹评估长江中游城市群资源环境压力,引入基尼系数分析城市群水-碳-生态足迹与经济、人口、水资源的平衡性,并构建深度神经网络模型预测水-碳-生态足迹的未来变化趋势。结果表明:长江中游城市群2000-2015年的人均生态足迹由1.98hm2增至4.06hm2,人均碳足迹由0.27hm2增至0.56hm2,年平均增幅分别为6.56%和6.5%;人均水资源生态足迹整体呈先下降后上升,最后趋于平衡的变化趋势;大部分城市的水资源超载指数为正值,总体水资源状况良好,湖南和江西水资源状况优于湖北。长江中游城市群面临巨大资源环境压力,且大部分来自于碳排放压力。研究期内,江西省资源环境压力由中上等级升至较高等级;湖南省资源环境压力基本处于高等级;湖北省资源环境压力均处于很高等级。城市群人口分布、经济发展、水资源分布与水-碳-生态足迹的匹配关系较差。从生态足迹角度来看,综合基尼系数均值为0.456,处于"一般不匹配"范围,研究期内呈现缓慢下降趋势,表明区域间整体协调性增强;从碳足迹角度来看,人口、GDP和水资源基尼系数均有逐年增加的趋势;综合水资源生态足迹基尼系数达到了0.421,处于"一般不匹配"范围;从资源环境压力角度来看,水资源基尼系数年均值达到0.774,处于"严重不匹配"范围;综合基尼系数逐年上升,处于"严重不匹配"范围。而足迹预测结果显示长江中游城市群未来的人均水-碳-生态足迹变化幅度较小,均值分别为1.01、0.74、5.04hm2,湖北的整体生态环境仍不理想。通过分析区域水-碳-生态足迹变化特征和发展平衡性,以期为长江中游城市群经济、环境和资源之间的协调发展提供科学依据。 Abstract:Triangle of Central China (TOCC) is one of the three cross regional urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River economic belt. It is significant to realize the regional efficient coordinated development for enhancing important national growth. This study applies footprint family (water, carbon, and ecological footprints) for evaluating the regional resource-environment pressure (REP) in the TOCC. The balance association with water, carbon, and ecological footprints can be measured through Gini coefficient from different perspectives of economy, populations, and resources. Future trend of water, carbon, and ecological footprints can be forecasted by a deep neural networks model. Results showed that the regional per capita ecological and carbon footprints kept rising from 1.98hm2 to 4.06 hm2 and from 0.27hm2 to 0.56hm2 during the periods, with average annual growth rates of 6.56% and 6.50%, respectively. From 2000 to 2015, the per capita water resources ecological footprint first declined, then increased, finally tended to balance. The water resources performance in most cities was satisfied due to their positive values of water resources overload index, especially in Hunan and Jiangxi. High REP can be observed in the TOCC, which mainly originated from the pressure of carbon emission. The REP in Jiangxi increased from the middle to higher level, and that in Hunan and Hubei was basically at a high level. There existed a poor relationship among water-carbon-ecological footprint and the social-economic performances. From the perspective of ecological footprint, its average comprehensive gini coefficient reached 0.456 with a general mismatch state and a slow downward trend, which indicated an improved overall coordination among regions. In terms of carbon footprint, its population, GDP, and water resource gini coefficients kept rising, which implied that the matching among carbon footprint, economic development, and population size was gradually weakening. The comprehensive gini coefficient reached 0.421 with a general mismatch state when it came to water resources ecological footprint. With respect to REP, its annual average gini coefficient of water resources reached 0.774 that was in the range of serious mismatch, and the comprehensive gini coefficient increased with a serious mismatch state. A steady trend of the per capita water-carbon-ecological footprint in the TOCC can be found according to the outputs from the deep neural networks model, with the averages of 1.01hm2, 0.74hm2 and 5.04hm2, respectively; but the overall ecological environment quality in Hubei is still unsatisfied. These findings can be expected to provide a scientific basis for achieving the coordinate development among economic activities, environment, and resources in the TOCC. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献
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