Prospects For Economic Growth Research Articles

Causality Test between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: The Case of Afghanistan

This study examines all available data to determine if ODA has a long-term beneficial impact on GDP, identify the significant issues with ODA expenditure and aid dependency in Afghanistan, and improve economic growth prospects in Afghanistan. Database for the period 2002-2021 is s considered for this study. The study uses time series analysis using the EViews 12 software. These tests were conducted using ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP), the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test. Johansen's cointegration test revealed the presence of two cointegration relationships between GDP and ODA variables. This suggests that GDP and ODA move together in the long run, indicating a mutual relationship or interdependence between the two variables. Moreover, Granger causality test results suggest that neither ODA nor GDP Granger causes the other.

Exploring the Impact of Family Environment, Locus of Control, and Adversity Quotient in Shaping Entrepreneurial Intentions among Students

The current state of entrepreneurial motivation among students in Indonesia presents a noteworthy concern, as it appears to be relatively low, thus impacting the nation’s economic growth and employment prospects. This study seeks to explore the various factors influencing entrepreneurial intentions among college students, with a particular focus on family environment, locus of control, and adversity quotient. To conduct this research, we utilized a survey methodology, distributing questionnaires to 120 students from two esteemed Indonesian universities who have completed entrepreneurship courses and are actively involved in entrepreneurial initiatives. The findings revealed that family environment and adversity quotient exert a significant positive influence on students' entrepreneurial intentions, while locus of control did not show a substantial effect. These results emphasize the vital importance of family support and resilience in fostering entrepreneurial aspirations among university students. This research contributes meaningfully to the existing literature on entrepreneurship by illuminating the key roles of family environment and adversity quotient in shaping entrepreneurial intentions. It would be beneficial for future studies to further investigate the role of locus of control and to consider additional factors that may impact entrepreneurial intentions, thereby enriching our understanding of how to encourage entrepreneurial endeavors among students.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Geopolitical Implications for South Asia

Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been initiated in China in 2013 as a transformative global infrastructure and development endeavor involving more than 70 nations. Aside from its economic and financial implications, however, the BRI is often also perceived as Chinas expansionist strategy in increasing soft power. With South Asia playing a pivotal role due to its strategic position and growing economic potential, this paper examines the geopolitical implications of the BRI and Chinese influence in the region. The study explores BRI projects with case studies, revealing how the initiative both offers prospects for economic growth and highlights challenges around sovereignty, debt dependency, and regional security, especially in a region marked by historical rivalries and political complexities. Particular attention is given to the effects of the BRI on the power balance between China, India, and other South Asian nations, as well as its broader impact on strategic partnerships and regional dynamics. Through an analysis of key BRI projects in South Asia and its implications, this paper assesses both the opportunities and challenges the initiative presents, offering insights into the enduring geopolitical consequences for the region.

Impact of education, poverty, and demographic background on maternal mortality, fertility, and family planning in Pakistan

In recent decades, maternal mortality has significantly reduced on a global scale. However, persistent inequities have undermined these advances in middle- and low-income countries. Therefore, there has been a shift toward more inclusive approaches, such as human capital formation. This perspective article analyzes maternal mortality, fertility, and family planning outcomes in Pakistan, comparing them with educational attainment, socioeconomic status, and demographics. Pakistan’s maternal mortality rate among those with a rural background is 21% higher than those with an urban background in the country. Historically, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been gradually declining, from 4.9 in 1990 – 1991 to 4.1 in 2006 – 2007, to 3.8 in 2012 – 2013, and to 3.6 in 2017 – 2018. However, there are stark disparities in TFR based on demographic background, education, and poverty. Meanwhile, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) has remained stagnant for the past two decades, largely due to inadequate initiatives in poverty reduction, education, and rural development. Pakistan has committed to reducing maternal mortality and fertility and increasing CPR under the International Conference on Population Development, Family Planning 2030, and the recommendations of Pakistan’s Council of Common Interest. Along with these goals, infrastructure development, in (interprovincial roads connecting rural and urban areas and alternative energy initiatives) presents promising prospects for economic growth, poverty reduction, and increased employment opportunities. The paper concludes that health service delivery measures cannot sustain improvements in maternal health, fertility, and family planning indicators alone. Rather, a multipronged strategy focused on poverty reduction, education, and reductions in rural–urban disparities is essential for sustained progress.

The Role of Personal Remittances in Economic Development: A Comparative Analysis with Foreign Direct Investment in Lebanon

Understanding the role of personal remittances in economic development is crucial, particularly for countries like Lebanon, where these inflows play a significant role in economic stability. This study investigates the impact of personal remittances on Lebanon’s economic development over the period from 2002 to 2022, employing a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative regression analyses and qualitative data from surveys. The research finds that personal remittances have a more substantial effect on Lebanon’s GDP compared to foreign direct investment (FDI), with positive correlations observed between remittances and key economic indicators such as GDP, public debt, and unemployment rates. Additionally, qualitative findings reveal that remittances are vital for addressing basic living expenses, education, and healthcare needs, illustrating their multifaceted influence on household well-being. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a nuanced understanding of how remittances impact economic development in Lebanon and highlights the need for policy interventions aimed at enhancing financial literacy and promoting productive investments. The findings offer valuable implications for policymakers and stakeholders, suggesting that improving the management and utilization of remittances could significantly bolster Lebanon’s economic resilience and growth prospects.

An Empirical Analysis of Africa Continental Free Trade Area Economic Growth Prospects in the SADC Region: Evidence Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag-PMG Estimation Techniques

Inter-SADC trade relations of indebted small countries and their potential of ushering economic growth from AfCFTA are unclear in both the short and long run. The study aims to empirically examine if there are AfCFTA economic growth prospects for SADC nations in the short and long term through an examination of the trade openness-economic growth nexus, and how the external debt impacts economic growth. A panel of eight SADC countries is used from a period spanning 1996-2022. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation techniques. The findings suggest that trade openness impacts economic growth positively at the 1% level in the long run, whereas external debt impacts economic growth negatively at the 1% level in both the long and short run. The study also finds that causality runs from economic growth to trade openness and is unidirectional. SADC nations are urged to minimise the overreliance on external debt in the funding of domestic consumption needs as it has negative consequences on economic growth in the long term.

The role of the energy dimension in tourism safety and security

Security, having a multilateral character – as a state of the social system, a complex process, a function of the state, etc. – reflects the level of satisfaction of the fundamental national interests of a country, as well as the actions taken, on a single ideological basis, to promote those interests and defend them against aggression, dangers, threats and risks of any kind. The tourism sector is an important economic sector globally and locally and offers real prospects for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Safety is one of the most important criteria in supporting the tourism industry. Diplomatic channels, negotiation, cooperation and exchange of experience have always been and remain the most viable ways for a state to achieve its foreign policy objectives in relation to its domestic needs, especially for the Republic of Moldova with limited energy resources and infastructure still in the present.

STRATEGIC MARKERS OF INVESTMENT IN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE OBJECTS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF UKRAINE

The paper examines the strategic aspects of investing in Ukraine's critical infrastructure in the state's economic security context. The importance of critical infrastructure for the stable functioning of the economy in the face of modern challenges, including military threats, cyber-attacks and natural disasters, is analyzed. The issue of financial instability, which requires the involvement of private investors and international partners to restore and modernize infrastructure, is also considered separately. The study examines the role of public-private partnership and international cooperation as the introduction of innovative technologies, such as artificial intelligence and IoT, to increase the efficiency and sustainability of infrastructure facilities. Critical strategies for effective risk management and attracting investments to restore energy, transport and communications have been identified. Recommendations are offered for assessing investments' economic and social efficiency, considering the payback and impact on the population's well-being. The paper also outlines the prospects for long-term economic growth through investment in critical infrastructure, an essential element of the country's post-crisis recovery. This study delves into the strategic dimensions of investing in Ukraine's critical infrastructure, emphasizing its significance for economic security. The paper thoroughly examines Ukraine's financial constraints due to the ongoing war and economic instability. It underscores the necessity of engaging private investors and fostering international collaboration. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) and international financial institutions are identified as crucial players in providing the necessary funding and expertise for the recovery and modernization of infrastructure. The article also explores how integrating innovative technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT), can significantly enhance the resilience and efficiency of infrastructure systems. In conclusion, the article offers strategic recommendations for investing in Ukraine's critical infrastructure. The purpose of the study is to identify strategic priorities for the allocation of investment resources for the reconstruction of critical infrastructure, considering the aspects of economic security.

War and Economic Growth: What Can Modern RUSSIA Learn From the 20th Century?

After February 2022, the growth of military expenditures and trade sanctions of unfriendly countries were the main factors determining the economic development of the Russian Federation. These factors are nothing new in the world and Russian history. They are typical economic manifestations of military conflicts. The accumulated historical experience, if properly used and correctly interpreted, can help to evaluate the current state of the Russian economy and predict its future. In this context, this article considers the two largest world conflicts (the First and Second World Wars) as well as five major military conflicts of the 20th century in which our country took part. The analyzed experience has identified six major factors. The presence or absence of these factors determines the potential economic growth of a belligerent state. With regard to the presence of these factors, the current economic situation in Russia has been analyzed. The authors have come to the conclusion that there are no prospects for economic growth in modern Russia. Besides, they have justified the need for a structural reorientation of GDP towards increased military and investment spending at the expense of reduced consumption by the population.

30 Years of Macroeconomic Effects in Zambia-VECM, ARDL & IRF Approaches

Purpose: This study examines the impact of selected time series macroeconomic variables on Zambia’s economic progress for thirty (30) years (1992 to 2022) Methodology: The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), vector error correction models (VECMs) and the impulse response functions (IRFs) approaches. Findings: The VECM regression estimates indicate that in the long-run, ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in inflation and population growth rates cause a significant positive impact on economic progress of 0.36% and 0.68 % respectively whereas the total public debt stock causes decrease in economic growth of 0.45%. The ARDL long-run regression estimates indicate that ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in inflation and public debt significantly reduces real GDP by 0.2% and 0.03%, respectively, but a 1% increase in population growth rate increases real GDP by 23.11%. The IRF estimates show that a negative shock to the real GDP causes a mildly negative effect on the inflation rate, causes a significant positive increase in the population growth rate, which dissipates after 9.5 years and causes a significant positive increase in public debt, which dissipates after 10 years. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: Therefore, the study recommends that the Zambian government should prioritize repayment of the outstanding public debt by bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio to sustainable levels, adhering to prudent public financial management and continuing to grow the domestic revenue base. The policies to promote population growth should be pursued cautiously because rapid population growth rates could erode the future economic growth prospects of Zambia.

Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Zambia’s Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL and NARDL Models

This study investigated the interplay between exchange rate volatility, inflation rates, and real interest rates on Zambia’s economic growth from 1992 to 2022, utilizing annualized time series data. The study was necessitated by the limited published literature and relatively varying findings on the variables’ relationships in resource-dependent countries, such as Zambia. Diagnostic tests, including stationarity and co-integration analyses, were employed to determine integration orders and potential long-run relationships. The linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models were employed to assess short- and long-run dynamics of the variables on economic growth. The results established a positive short-run relationship between inflation rates and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the linear autoregressive distributive lag model, while an inverse relationship was observed in the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model, suggesting that negative shocks in inflation rates had a highly significant positive impact on economic growth. Furthermore, interest rates exhibited a positive relationship with economic growth, further suggesting that positive shocks had a greater significant direct effect on economic growth in comparison to negative shocks in the short and long run, respectively. Finally, exchange rates in both models exhibited an inverse relationship with economic growth irrespective of positive or negative shocks in the long run, highlighting the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth prospects in developing countries, such as Zambia. The speed of adjustment to convergence following any disruptions was determined to be 75.18% (ARDL) and 89.19% (NARDL), highlighting relatively fast speeds of adjustments from any short-run disruptions. Notably, some of the policy recommendations included regular assessments of exchange rate volatility influences on import prices, domestic inflation, and production costs in key sectors. Additionally, the implementation of currency hedging options and forwards as well as bulking of foreign exchange reserves will ensure the stability of exchange rates against other major currencies in various economic conditions.

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND IMPORT OPERATIONS DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE AND THE EU

Objective. The objective of the article is to analyze the current trends in export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU and to determine their features during the large-scale invasion. Methods. During the research, the following methods are applied: the dialectical method of learning processes and phenomena (for a qualitative study of the dynamics of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); graphical method (for graphical presentation of current dynamics and forecast values of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); index (to estimate the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU in the total volume of imports and exports of Ukraine, respectively); one-factor and three-factor autoregressive forecasting method (for forecasting the volume and share of export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU). Results. Before the large-scale invasion, the EU was one of Ukraine's key foreign trade partners. As of 2021, the EU accounted for 50% of Ukrainian exports. In the case of imports, the share of the EU was 63% of all imports to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the share of exports from Ukraine to the EU has increased to 70%, underscoring the importance of the EU as a major trading partner that not only contributes to economic stability, but also provides important logistics routes for the export of Ukrainian goods to global markets. Forecasting the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU shows that, despite the decrease in exports and imports due to the large-scale invasion, the share of exports to the EU in total exports of Ukraine will increase, while the share of imports from the EU will remain constant. This testifies to the stability and importance of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU in the difficult conditions of modern global challenges. The executed forecast is based on the assumption that the large-scale invasion will continue. If the situation changes and the period of post-war recovery comes, it will be necessary to build a new forecast that will reflect new prospects for economic growth and integration of Ukraine into the world economy.

Refining the scale of the rural-urban landscape: A policy-relevant application to Chile

The rural-urban divide has traditionally been used to characterize key features of regions, including features of economic geography like density and connectivity that determine the prospects for economic growth and other dimensions of territorial development. In this paper, we develop a methodology that identifies areas along the urban-rural continuum according to their key features of population density and distance to large urban settlements at a more-detailed scale than the smallest administrative areas, taking Chile as a case study, a country that has experienced a rapid socio-economic transition over the last three decades. Information derived from the application of this methodology allows the identification of geographic categories according to observable density and distance. We also present geographic definitions of urban, rural, and mixed areas, which allow a practical, policy-relevant taxonomy of the rural-urban landscape, consistent with the 3-tier approach taken in most OECD countries. We demonstrate the relevance and practical importance of this smaller-scale approach by showing that, in the case of Chile, there is a significant mismatch between the official, cruder definitions, based on political subdivisions and currently in use by the government, and the realities of the country's present rural-urban landscape. Our results demonstrate that a focus on the scale at which information can be interpreted and summarized is not merely an academic exercise, but a way of correctly identifying, within the policymaking framework, communities according to the realities of their needs and capabilities.

Nature-related financial risks and central bank risk management

Nature is undergoing a rapid decline, due to factors such as changes in land use, climate change and pollution, potentially leading to the sixth mass extinction of species. This process jeopardises ecosystem services and therewith the global economy. Over half of the global economy relies on nature and its degradation can affect supply chains, weather patterns, commodity prices and economic growth prospects. This paper finds that nature-related risks are in fact financial risks and offers empirical evidence that these risks are priced in corporate bonds, a relevant asset class for central banks. In light of this, central banks can acknowledge and evaluate the impact and dependency of their operations on nature, incorporating these considerations into their risk management framework, encompassing identification, assessment, mitigation and disclosure. This will help to ensure price stability and sustainable development, while enabling them to safeguard their balance sheets. The guidelines provided by this paper extend to other financial institutions, underscoring the need for a holistic approach to the challenges posed by nature loss.

Reevaluating energy progress: An in-depth policy framework of energy, urbanization, and economic development

Pakistan has challenging energy-related economic concerns, including accessibility, affordability, and sustainability, all of which significantly impact the country's economic development and growth prospects. This study seeks to uncover the intricate link between energy use, power costs, urbanization, alternative energy consumption, and economic development from 1970 to 2018. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, Frequency Domain Causality (FDC), and Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA), the research finds that energy use and urbanization positively impact economic development in the short and long term. Conversely, alternative energy consumption declines in the short run, while rising power costs negatively affect long-term economic development. FDC results indicate that rising power costs affect economic development in the short, medium, and long run, while urbanization has a long and short-term and energy use has a long- and medium-run impact on economic development in Pakistan. IAA aligns with ARDL and FDC hypotheses. This underscores the vital role of energy use and costs in economic activity, emphasizing the need for prudent urbanization and strategic alternative energy integration in long-term policy for Pakistan.

Lifelong learning as a governing technique of subjectivation from the perspective of the discourse of hope and fear

Neoliberal governmentality highlights that the mode of governing technologies has moved from government toward governance in modern society. Accordingly, as the self becomes the nexus between social control and self-regulation, configuring self-knowledge is mainly achieved through subjectivation, as argued by M. Foucault. The OECD's PISA program implicitly carries out this technique by holding teachers responsible for national prospects through its assumption of a close linkage between teaching quality and human capital. More importantly, PISA data facilitates international comparisons and rankings by which the international competitiveness of its participants can be identified and categorized. Unsurprisingly, those member countries/regions classified in the first tier are confident of their prospects for future economic growth in contrast with those ranked below the average, which are unable to escape from a state of fear engendered by their assumed lack of economic prospects. Teachers thus become the subject and object of educational reforms. Teachers need to improve their teaching quality through professional development to eliminate the stigma of being viewed as social burdens. The discourses of hope and fear set in motion by PISA thus turn lifelong learning into a powerful means of facilitating the government to fabricate teachers' subjectivity. This is the art of subjectivation, commanding teachers to perform as enterprising subjects who are dedicated to contributing to social progression through good teaching quality, which is perceived as the gateway for them to bring honor upon themselves.

РАЗВИТИЕ НАУЧНО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА РЕГИОНОВ ПРИВОЛЖСКОГО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ОКРУГА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Currently, in the context of active transformation of the global economy, innovation plays a key role in the development of regions. This is especially noticeable in industrialized countries, where the prospects for sustainable economic growth are closely linked to the integration of the latest scientific and technological achievements, including progress in the fields of information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, as well as the introduction of new materials and technologies aimed at saving resources and protecting the environment . The development of the scientific and technological potential of the regions of the Russian Federation is recognized as a priority task at the state level. Issues of developing and implementing strategies that can stimulate the scientific and technological development of the regional economy occupy a central place in discussions at the highest government level and in scientific circles. The Volga Federal District of Russia stands out among other regions due to its high scientific and technological activity. Analysis of the scientific and technological potential of a given region, taking into account its scientific, technological and economic characteristics, is an important task, which provides for the relevance of developing special territorial strategies and methods for assessing scientific and technological development. The object of the study is the scientific and technological potential of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to assess the state, problems and prospects for the development of the scientific and technological potential of the regions of the Volga Federal District. Research methods: statistical analysis, comparative analysis, documentary method, general scientific methods. The scientific novelty of this research includes the identification and analysis of key factors that influence scientific and technological potential, as well as determining the directions of its development in the regions of the Volga Federal District.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА: ПЕДАГОГИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ОСВЕЩЕНИЮ ДАННОГО НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ В ВУЗАХ

The paper examines the prospects for economic growth and various pedagogical approaches to highlighting this issue in universities. The author analyzes current trends in economic development and suggests teaching methods and strategies that contribute to the formation of students' competencies necessary for effective participation in stimulating economic growth. In addition, the key aspects of integrating theory and practice into the educational process are discussed, including the use of case methods, project work and simulation games. The results of the study can be useful for teachers and university leaders in the development and improvement of educational programs aimed at training specialists who can effectively interact with the modern economic environment.

Valuation of Stocks by Integrating Discounted Cash Flow With Imitation Learning and Guided Policy

The valuation of discounted cash flow (DCF) is one of the most appropriate methods to measure a company’s value, and it is also a fundamental method according to Warren Buffett to value a stock for investment. DCF analysis requires the estimations of the future free cash flow (FCF) and the weighted average cost of capital. However, these factors are often subject to an appraiser’s bias. To obtain a more objective DCF analysis, in this study, we develop a machine learning mechanism: imitation learning, which encompasses a teacher to demonstrate state-action pairs. To facilitate imitation learning, we adopt a guided policy search with the chronological order of a Levy distribution. This distribution can cover the stages of growth, decay, and long fat tail that correspond to a business life cycle. In this way, learning the trajectory of FCF can optimize the fitness between the FCF and the chronological order of a Levy distribution. The fitness achieved allows us to monitor the data by fitting the chronological order for the correct stage. The results show that regarding the Sharpe ratio and precision of DCF valuation, our approach outperforms the popular classification models -random forest and long short-term memory network. Code is available at https://github.com/YuanLongPeng/DCFValuation. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Note to Practitioners</i> —Appraisers own knowledge for valuation of stocks to project FCFs and WACC. The knowledge has a broad spectrum, such as prospect of economic growth and competition in the industry. Threat of substitute products. This study proposed a method to automate the process of valuation by learning FCFs and WACC from data. The result of valuation is reproducible and free of the bias of appraisers.

Addressing Digital and AI Skills Gaps in European Living Areas: A Comparative Analysis of Small and Large Communities

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to permeate various aspects of societies, understanding the disparities in AI knowledge and skills across different living areas becomes imperative. Small living areas have emerged as significant contributors to Europe's economy, offering an alternative to the bustling environment of larger cities for those seeking an improved quality of life. Nonetheless, they often encounter challenges related to digital infrastructure, access to financial resources, and digital skills gaps, limiting their economic and social growth prospects. This study investigates the digital and AI skills gaps in the context of small and large European living areas, shedding light on the potential hindrances to unleashing the full economic and social potentials of these regions in an AI-enabled economy. Drawing from a comprehensive dataset encompassing 4,006 respondents across eight EU countries, this research examines the current perceptions and understandings of AI and digital skills within two distinct population groups: residents of smaller living areas and their counterparts in larger communities. Through bivariate analysis, notable insights are revealed concerning trust in AI solutions and entities, self-assessed digital skills, AI Awareness, AI Attitudes and demography variables in both population groups. These insights may refer to the significance of addressing digital and AI skills gaps in fostering growth and preparedness for the AI-driven future. As AI becomes increasingly integral to various aspects of society, targeted interventions and policies are essential to bridge these gaps and enable individuals and communities to harness the transformative potential of AI-enabled economies.