War and Economic Growth: What Can Modern RUSSIA Learn From the 20th Century?

Abstract

After February 2022, the growth of military expenditures and trade sanctions of unfriendly countries were the main factors determining the economic development of the Russian Federation. These factors are nothing new in the world and Russian history. They are typical economic manifestations of military conflicts. The accumulated historical experience, if properly used and correctly interpreted, can help to evaluate the current state of the Russian economy and predict its future. In this context, this article considers the two largest world conflicts (the First and Second World Wars) as well as five major military conflicts of the 20th century in which our country took part. The analyzed experience has identified six major factors. The presence or absence of these factors determines the potential economic growth of a belligerent state. With regard to the presence of these factors, the current economic situation in Russia has been analyzed. The authors have come to the conclusion that there are no prospects for economic growth in modern Russia. Besides, they have justified the need for a structural reorientation of GDP towards increased military and investment spending at the expense of reduced consumption by the population.