Risk Prioritization Research Articles

Clinical prediction of GBA carrier status in Parkinson’s disease

IntroductionGiven the unique natural history of GBA-related Parkinson’s disease (GBA-PD) and the potential for novel treatments in this population, genetic testing prioritization for the identification of GBA-PD patients is crucial for prognostication, individualizing treatment, and stratification for clinical trials. Assessing the predictive value of certain clinical traits for the GBA-variant carrier status will help target genetic testing in clinical settings where cost and access limit its availability. MethodsIn-depth clinical characterization through standardized rating scales for motor and non-motor symptoms and self-reported binomial information of a cohort of subjects with PD (n = 100) from our center and from the larger cohort of the Parkinson’s Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) was utilized to evaluate the predictive values of clinical traits for GBA variant carrier status. The model was cross-validated across the two cohorts. ResultsLeveraging non-motor symptoms of PD, we established successful discrimination of GBA variants in the PPMI cohort and study cohort (AUC 0.897 and 0.738, respectively). The PPMI cohort model successfully generalized to the study cohort data using both MDS-UPDRS scores and binomial data (AUC 0.740 and 0.734, respectively) while the study cohort model did not. ConclusionsWe assessed the predictive value of non-motor symptoms of PD for identifying GBA carrier status in the general PD population. These data can be used to determine a simple, clinically oriented model using either the MDS-UPDRS or subjective symptom reporting from patients. Our results can inform patient counseling about the expected carrier risk and test prioritization for the expected identification of GBA variants.

Persons diagnosed with COVID-19 in England in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD): a cohort description

ObjectiveTo create case definitions for confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses, COVID-19 vaccination status and three separate definitions of high risk of severe COVID-19, as well as to assess whether the implementation of...

Integrating Resilience into Risk Matrices: A Practical Approach to Risk Assessment with Empirical Analysis

The changing and intensifying landscape of global, national, and local disaster risks, driven by socio-political, environmental, and technological shifts, underscores the critical need for risk assessment by international agencies and governments. The Risk Matrix, introduced in 1995, has been widely used for risk assessment in different contexts, lauded for its simplicity and effectiveness. This model relies on the core risk components of consequence and likelihood, making it a favored tool for risk managers. To enhance the precision of risk assessment, various adaptations and extensions of the risk matrix have emerged; while some indirectly address resilience aspects, none explicitly integrate resilience into the matrix. This paper explores the risk matrix and its extensions, advocating for the inclusion of resilience in risk assessment. It introduces an empirical approach to quantify resilience, through a survey targeting small and medium-sized businesses in Southern Ontario, Canada. By developing two types of risk matrices—one with resilience considerations and one without—our work demonstrates how resilience alters risk prioritization, highlighting the importance of preparedness. This research underscores the pivotal role of resilience in risk assessment and urges its explicit integration into risk matrices to enhance accuracy and efficacy. Through practical examples and empirical data, the paper builds a compelling case for the central role of resilience in modern risk assessment practices.

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) Approach Based on Avoidance of Aggregation Discrepancy

As a powerful forward-looking risk management technique, FMEA has been widely used for reliability and security analysis in engineering management fields. In practice, the implementation of FMEA involves the participation of multiple members with distinct knowledge, experience, and cultural background, thus, FMEA is a typical multicriteria group decision-making problem. However, the existence of the aggregation discrepancy issue in FMEA problems with group decision-making leads to collective evaluation conflicts that bring about decision bias for further risk management. This article proposes an AADFMEA method based on multiple-objective optimization to promote the accuracy and reliability of collective assessment information in FMEA members, in which the 10-point qualitative scale is used for evaluation. Additionally, the AADFMEA method responds to the different individual cognitions to a specific evaluation value from multiple members by constraining the risk prioritization to derive more reasonable collective risk evaluation information. Finally, two case studies are presented to show that the AADFMEA method has a good application value, and the simulation analysis was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed AADFMEA approach.

Failure mode and effects analysis: a decision-making risk prioritisation approach

Failure mode and effects analysis: a decision-making risk prioritisation approach

Risk factor prioritization in infrastructure handover to operations

Worldwide, there are numerous reports of major infrastructure projects failing at handover to the operations phase following completion of the project development and delivery phase. While poor risk identification and prioritization has been identified as one of the causes of this failure, we know little about the specific risk factors project beneficiaries consider most important at this point of handover. With these issues in mind, we draw on a survey of key dry port project beneficiaries in Brazil to examine and prioritize the risks considered most important at handover to operations. Paying particular attention to project beneficiary heterogeneity and incongruence, we find eight key risk factors – ‘Cost’, ‘Location’, ‘Infrastructure’, ‘Accessibility’, ‘Operational’, ‘Economic’, ‘Political and social’, and ‘Environment’ that warrant emphasis. We reveal congruence among some project beneficiaries in terms of prioritization. We also find variations in handover to operations risks based on project characteristics. However, these characteristics appear to have very limited impact on prioritization. Our findings further point to risk blind spots at critical moments of project handover to operations. Overall, this paper contributes to project risk management/prioritization literature in the context of handover to operations.

Potential pollution risks of historic landfills in England: Further analysis of climate change impacts

AbstractFive years ago, an article in WIREs Water provided the first comprehensive analysis of historic (legacy) landfill sites vulnerable to coastal flooding and erosion at a national scale (England). This update expands upon that article by considering the potential impacts of climate change upon inland historic landfills. Globally, there are hundreds of thousands of landfills that predate modern environmental regulations, and where waste is not isolated from the surrounding environment, but climate change impacts on the pollution risk from historic landfills in freshwater environments has received little attention. Where climate change causes an increase in the frequency and magnitude of fluvial flood events, this will increase leachate generation and the probability of landfill erosion and solid waste release. Where there is increased drought the landfill capping materials may crack, opening up new pollutant pathways, and increasing the risk of solid waste release. Changes to groundwater movement resulting from climate change may open new leachate pathways, and in England alone, thousands of historic landfills are in (groundwater) Source Protection Zones where modern regulations to protect drinking water supplies would not permit their construction. This increased contaminant release from historic landfills in freshwater environments may impact surface and/or groundwater quality and ecological health, increase costs for drinking water monitoring/treatment, or make some abstraction sources unviable. This is especially of concern where receptors are subject to multiple pressures and may cause tipping points to be reached. Further research is warranted into contaminant behavior, receptor vulnerability, historic landfill risk prioritization, and mitigation/remediation methods.This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Engineering Water Science of Water > Water Quality Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems

Quantifying pesticide emissions for drift deposition in comparative risk and impact assessment

Estimating emissions of chemical pesticides used in agriculture is an essential component in evaluating the potential toxicity-related impacts on humans and ecosystems in various comparative risk and impact assessment frameworks, such as life cycle assessment, environmental footprinting, absolute environmental sustainability assessment, chemical substitution, and risk prioritization. Emissions related to drift deposition—usually derived from drift experiments—can reach non-target areas, and vary as a function of crop characteristics and application technique. We derive cumulative drift deposition fractions for a wide range of experimental drift functions for use in comparative and mass-balanced approaches. We clarify that cumulative drift deposition fractions require to integrate the underlying drift functions over the relevant deposition area and to correct for the ratio of deposition area to treated field area to arrive at overall mass deposited per unit mass of applied pesticide. Our results show that for most crops, drift deposition fractions from pesticide application are below 0.03 (i.e. 3% of applied mass), except for grapes and fruit trees, where drift fractions can reach 5% when using canon or air blast sprayers. Notably, aerial applications on soybeans can result in significantly higher drift deposition fractions, ranging from 20% to 60%. Additionally, varying the nozzle position can lead to a factor of five differences in pesticide deposition, and establishing buffer zones can effectively reduce drift deposition. To address remaining limitations in deriving cumulative drift deposition fractions, we discuss possible alternative modelling approaches. Our proposed approach can be implemented in different quantitative and comparative assessment frameworks that require emission estimates of agricultural pesticides, in support of reducing chemical pollution and related impacts on human health and the environment.

The Influence of Changing Socioeconomic Conditions in Europe on the Prioritisation of Risks in Travel Behaviour: A Case Study

Pandemics, political instability, social conflict and unrest, the economic crisis resulting from changes in energy supply contracts, terrorism, and civil and international wars exert a negative impact on the lives of millions of people. These events undermine economic and social stability, and they affect travel behaviour (TB). Understanding preferences in travel behaviour is essential for designing effective and sustainable transport systems. Agenda 2030 (the global sustainable development strategy) assigns a central role to mobility and transport in sustainable development and its components: economic, social, and environmental. Relevant research is scarce, which is why potential threats, including changes in socioeconomic factors that affect TB in functional urban areas (FUAs), should be identified and prioritised. The main aim of this study was to determine changes in the prioritisation of threats to TB resulting from the socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis in Europe. The study involved an analysis of the literature, a comprehensive classification of potential threats that could impact TB, as well as an expert survey. The results of these analyses were used to develop a list of 46 factors that were grouped into six categories of key threats: social, economic, legal, infrastructural, technological/SMART, and environmental. The level of significance, similarities, and differences in the prioritisation of threats during the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis after the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine (duration and range) were compared across 22 European countries.

Interpreting and evaluating open norms of person-centred care in daily regulatory practice of the Dutch nursing home care setting

Objective:The emphasis on person-centred nursing home care poses a key challenge for inspectors who regulate quality of care, because of its situated characteristics (i.e., for each client different and changing over time). This makes it difficult to assess with predetermined norms in contrast to for example requirements of medication safety. In this paper, we therefore empirically investigate how inspectors operationalize and evaluate open norms of person-centred care in the Dutch healthcare setting.Methods:Qualitative methods were used to study the work of inspectors who assess the quality of nursing home care within the Dutch Health and Youth Care Inspectorate. The first author7it observed the inspection process of nursing home care organizations (preparation, inspection visit, consults between inspectors and team meetings) and conducted semi-structured interviews with the observed inspectors and managers of the assessed organizations. Furthermore, different versions of the quality report were analyzed.Results:Easy made operationalizations of person-centred care (e.g., choice for meal) received more attention than other, less easily made, operationalizations of person-centered care (e.g., group dynamics). The following three exclusion mechanisms show why certain aspects of person-centred care got less attention than others: 1) not being able to triangulate information 2) doubting the trustworthiness of a person 3) not being able to deviate from the structure of the inspection program. Furthermore, there are two exclusion mechanisms that show how the assessment of person-centred care is ignored or overruled by other values in the assessment framework: 1) downplaying person-centredness by mitigating circumstances and, 2) prioritization of safety risks over risks of lacking person-centredness.Conclusion:In evaluating person-centred nursing home care using open norms, certain mechanisms are in place that exclude the assessment of quality of (certain aspects of) person-centered care. To overcome these mechanisms, a different, more reflexive approach for regulation might be needed to encourage stakeholders to engage in self-observation and self-criticism. Reflexive regulation using narrative methods can be especially helpful with complex issues, which are associated with uncertainty about standards and where different perspectives play a role. In further participative action research, we will experiment with and study the use of reflexive regulation using narrative methods in long-term care.

Risk Prioritization using A FUZZY BASED Approach in Software Development Design Phase

The success of a software project's objective is directly proportional to the degree to which it satisfies all of the stakeholders' concerns regarding the project's requirements, including the budget, schedule, and overall performance. Risks can occur throughout the software development lifecycle (SDLC) phases and affect every phase. The design phase of the SDLC yields an overview of the software and can be defined as the software's blueprint. Different types of software have their own unique design phases and have different types of risks. With the high number of interacting components, complex systems have a greater propensity to be more volatile, which increases the risk. It is necessary to prioritize the risks in order of their severity levels. The issue at hand is the lack of effective methods to prioritize and mitigate the risk. Recent studies have suggested several methods for prioritizing risks, but it is clear that few of these have been implemented. These methods are overly complicated, time-consuming, prone to inconsistency, and challenging to put into practice. This paper proposes a novel Fuzzy-based approach to risk prioritization in the software design phase using MATLAB software. Fuzzy-based models have been shown to be more accurate than other techniques when using standard datasets to prioritize risks. Fuzzy-based methods that have been proposed take into account the characteristics of risks by modelling those characteristics as fuzzy

Triangulating Risk Profile and Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Implementing Enterprise Risk Management System

Establishing an enterprise risk management (ERM) system is widely viewed as providing firms with the tools and processes needed to build resilience and expertise, enabling them to manage the consequences of crises that have led to the collapse of major firms across different industries globally. Intended for use in advanced accounting, auditing, and finance courses, this case study (of a true event) describes the development and implementation of an ERM system for a U.S. multinational nonprofit firm during the 2015–2021 period. The case study’s main learning objectives are several-fold. First, couched within the recent economic environment, it informs students on some of the more important academic and applied research on corporate risk management. Second, students will learn to analyze the content of a questionnaire designed to capture the integrated effects of the firm’s risk culture, risk structure, risk governance, and control for establishing its risk profile. Third, they will learn to create and apply multi-dimensional risk indices to measure and prioritize the firm’s risk exposures. Finally, the last learning outcome focuses on strategies to triangulate the firm’s overall risk profile and risk prioritization results to construct mitigation strategies that build resilience and create value through risk diversification, information signaling, the exploitation of natural hedges, and enhancing the board’s governing efficiency. The nonprofit nature of the firm in this case study introduces no methodological or conceptual constraints or limitations in applying the proposed risk management methodologies to for-profit or publicly traded firms.

Unsafe care inresidential settings forolder adults: a content analysis ofaccreditation reports.

Residents of aged care services can experience safety incidents resulting in preventable serious harm. Accreditation is a commonly used strategy to improve the quality of care; however, narrative information within accreditation reports is not generally analysed as a source of safety information to inform learning. In Australia, the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission (ACQSC), the sector regulator, undertakes over 500 accreditation assessments of residential aged care services against eight national standards every year. From these assessments, the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission generates detailed Site Audit Reports. In over one-third (37%) of Site Audit Reports, standards relating to Personal and Clinical Care (Standard 3) are not being met. The aim of this study was to identify the types of resident Safety Risks that relate to Personal and Clinical Care Standards not being met during accreditation or re-accreditation. These data could inform priority setting at policy, regulatory, and service levels. An analytical framework was developed based on the World Health Organization's International Classification for Patient Safety and other fields including Clinical Issue (the issue related to the incident impacting the resident, e.g. wound/skin or pain). Information relating to safety incidents in the Site Audit Reports was extracted, and a content analysis undertaken using the analytical framework. Clinical Issue and the International Classification for Patient Safety-based classification were combined to describe a clinically intuitive category ('Safety Risks') to describe ways in which residents could experience unsafe care, e.g. diagnosis/assessment of pain. The resulting data were descriptively analysed. The analysis included 65 Site Audit Reports that were undertaken between September 2020 and March 2021. There were 2267 incidents identified and classified into 274 types of resident Safety Risks. The 12 most frequently occurring Safety Risks account for only 32.3% of all incidents. Relatively frequently occurring Safety Risks were organisation management of infection control; diagnosis/assessment of pain, restraint, resident behaviours, and falls; and multiple stages of wounds/skin management, e.g. diagnosis/assessment, documentation, treatment, and deterioration. The analysis has shown that accreditation reports contain valuable data that may inform prioritization of resident Safety Risks in the Australian residential aged care sector. A large number of low-frequency resident Safety Risks were detected in the accreditation reports. To address these, organizations may use implementation science approaches to facilitate evidence-based strategies to improve the quality of care delivered to residents. Improving the aged care workforces' clinical skills base may address some of the Safety Risks associated with diagnosis/assessment and wound management.

Selection of most significant risk factors for Indian tunnel projects: an integrated fuzzy-based MCDM approach

The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive fuzzy-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology to generate ranking of risk factors on Indian tunnel projects. The complexities and high costs involved in tunnelling projects create a strong necessity to look into quantitative risk assessment so as to prevent project underperformance. The analysis of large number of risk factors makes the task difficult. Thus, the present study attempts to address this challenge by developing a comprehensive framework for risk prioritization. In the previous work, critical risk factors (CRFs) were identified using Relative importance Index from the factor pool. The present study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach for the identification of CRFs. The list of 25 critical factors, obtained by integrating both RII and AHP results, is further analyzed using the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS), based on three criteria, probability of occurrence, impact and cost. The methodology developed in this work will help in selecting the most significant risk factors, thus substantially improving the risk analysis process on Indian tunnel projects. This study contributes towards the development of framework for risk prioritization which will be useful for researchers and practitioners.

Measuring Vulnerability Assessment Tools’ Performance on the University Web Application

This research measured vulnerability assessment tools’ performance on a university web application, including Burp Suite and OWASP ZAP. There are three measurement criteria: (1) the number of vulnerabilities classified under risk and confidence metrics, (2) the number of vulnerability types and URL alerts classified under risk and confidence metrics, and (3) the number of vulnerabilities classified in the 2021 OWASP Top 10 vulnerabilities. Results showed that Burp Suite detected more vulnerabilities and alerts than OWASP ZAP, with a higher proportion of high-risk vulnerabilities. However, OWASP ZAP had a higher proportion of medium-confidence vulnerabilities. The comparison also revealed that the vulnerabilities identified by both tools were ranked differently within the OWASP Top 10, and there were variations in risk prioritisation between the tools. Despite these differences, the vulnerability assessment results obtained from these tools are still helpful for the university’s security analysts and administration, as mitigating cyber threats to the web application is paramount.

Retracted: “Best of Both World”: The Amalgamation of Fuzzy Delphi Method with Nominal Group Technique for Dengue Risk Prioritisation Decision-Making

Retracted: “Best of Both World”: The Amalgamation of Fuzzy Delphi Method with Nominal Group Technique for Dengue Risk Prioritisation Decision-Making

A One-Health environmental risk assessment of contaminants of emerging concern in London’s waterways throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic had huge impacts on global urban populations, activity and health, yet little is known about attendant consequences for urban river ecosystems. We detected significant changes in occurrence and risks from contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in waterways across Greater London (UK) during the pandemic. We were able to rapidly identify and monitor large numbers of CECs in n = 390 samples across 2019–2021 using novel direct-injection liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry methods for scalable targeted analysis, suspect screening and prioritisation of CEC risks. A total of 10,029 measured environmental concentrations (MECs) were obtained for 66 unique CECs. Pharmaceutical MECs decreased during lockdown in 2020 in the R. Thames (p ≤ 0.001), but then increased significantly in 2021 (p ≤ 0.01). For the tributary rivers, the R. Lee, Beverley Brook, R. Wandle and R. Hogsmill were the most impacted, primarily via wastewater treatment plant effluent and combined sewer overflows. In the R. Hogsmill in particular, pharmaceutical MEC trends were generally correlated with NHS prescription statistics, likely reflecting limited wastewater dilution. Suspect screening of ∼ 1,200 compounds tentatively identified 25 additional CECs at the five most impacted sites, including metabolites such as O-desmethylvenlafaxine, an EU Watch List compound. Lastly, risk quotients (RQs) ≥ 0.1 were calculated for 21 compounds across the whole Greater London freshwater catchment, of which seven were of medium risk (RQ ≥ 1.0) and three were in the high-risk category (RQ ≥ 10), including imidacloprid (RQ = 19.6), azithromycin (15.7) and diclofenac (10.5). This is the largest spatiotemporal dataset of its kind for any major capital city globally and the first for Greater London, representing ∼ 16 % of the population of England, and delivering a foundational One-Health case study in the third largest city in Europe across a global pandemic.

An extended FMECA approach using new risk assessment and prioritization based approach

An extended FMECA approach using new risk assessment and prioritization based approach

RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE IT SECTORS OF BANGALORE

This paper concentrates on the crucial aspects of “Risk assessment” inside the boundaries of Bangalore’s prosperous “Information Technology (IT)” sector. As the IT Sectors play a very important role in the development of Indian Economy, understanding as well as the mitigation of risks has also become very crucial. This research engages in identification, evaluation and prioritization of risks that the IT sectors of Bangalore face. The findings of the paper gives a clear understanding about the vulnerabilities and challenges which are particular to a specific region, giving the insights that are valuables for the stakeholders , leaders of the industry and policy makers the enhancement of “risk management strategies” as well as strengthen the flexibility of the IT sectors of Bangalore.

A New Methodology for the Prioritization of Visual Inspections of Bridges and Viaducts

AbstractThe assessment of risk conditions of bridges and viaducts allows management authorities to ensure the safety of the users and the proper allocation of economic resources for maintenance and retrofitting interventions. A common circumstance in practice regards the lack of information as well as the need to update it, causing delays in the risk evaluation and, consequently, in the entire decision‐making process. Especially in the managing of large bridge assets, the retrieval/updating of information can be costly, both in terms of time and economic resources. In this regard, the execution of visual inspections to determine the defect level of bridges and viaducts is the most resource‐intensive operation on the part of the management authorities. In this paper, a new methodology to prioritize visual inspections of bridges according to their risk condition and operating costs is proposed and illustrated with a real case study. A novel aspect of the proposed methodology regards the use of information gain criteria to refine the outcomes from the risk assessment and prioritization process. Finally, the outcomes of the methodology are implemented in a GIS framework to ensure high interoperability and facilitate the construction of intuitive risk maps to assist inspection plans.