Selection of most significant risk factors for Indian tunnel projects: an integrated fuzzy-based MCDM approach

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive fuzzy-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology to generate ranking of risk factors on Indian tunnel projects. The complexities and high costs involved in tunnelling projects create a strong necessity to look into quantitative risk assessment so as to prevent project underperformance. The analysis of large number of risk factors makes the task difficult. Thus, the present study attempts to address this challenge by developing a comprehensive framework for risk prioritization. In the previous work, critical risk factors (CRFs) were identified using Relative importance Index from the factor pool. The present study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach for the identification of CRFs. The list of 25 critical factors, obtained by integrating both RII and AHP results, is further analyzed using the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS), based on three criteria, probability of occurrence, impact and cost. The methodology developed in this work will help in selecting the most significant risk factors, thus substantially improving the risk analysis process on Indian tunnel projects. This study contributes towards the development of framework for risk prioritization which will be useful for researchers and practitioners.