The Influence of Changing Socioeconomic Conditions in Europe on the Prioritisation of Risks in Travel Behaviour: A Case Study

Abstract

Pandemics, political instability, social conflict and unrest, the economic crisis resulting from changes in energy supply contracts, terrorism, and civil and international wars exert a negative impact on the lives of millions of people. These events undermine economic and social stability, and they affect travel behaviour (TB). Understanding preferences in travel behaviour is essential for designing effective and sustainable transport systems. Agenda 2030 (the global sustainable development strategy) assigns a central role to mobility and transport in sustainable development and its components: economic, social, and environmental. Relevant research is scarce, which is why potential threats, including changes in socioeconomic factors that affect TB in functional urban areas (FUAs), should be identified and prioritised. The main aim of this study was to determine changes in the prioritisation of threats to TB resulting from the socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis in Europe. The study involved an analysis of the literature, a comprehensive classification of potential threats that could impact TB, as well as an expert survey. The results of these analyses were used to develop a list of 46 factors that were grouped into six categories of key threats: social, economic, legal, infrastructural, technological/SMART, and environmental. The level of significance, similarities, and differences in the prioritisation of threats during the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis after the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine (duration and range) were compared across 22 European countries.