Principles Of System Dynamics Research Articles

Assessing risk of metro microenvironmental health vulnerability from the coupling perspective: A case of Nanjing, China

Metro, as a convenient transportation, has many potential environmental risks during operation that pose a great threat to users, resulting in metro microenvironmental health vulnerability (MMHV). While prior research has focused on metro construction and safety management, some investigations have also addressed isolated metro microenvironment factors, such as air quality and noise, ignoring the underlying causes of health risks. Therefore, this research aims to reveal driving factors contributing to MMHV and assess the risk of MMHV from the coupling perspective. 14 Driving factors related to personnel, facility, environment, and management were firstly identified, along with their coupling relationships. Then, a risk coupling simulation model of the identified driving factors has been devised, which integrates a cloud theory-based coupling degree model framework and system dynamics principles to represent the interconnected risks posed by these factors. Finally, the constructed model is applied practically to discern the developmental trajectory of coupled risks emanating from the driving factors influencing MMHV. And the key factors at different periods were determined by adjusting coupling coefficients, so as to propose targeted strategies. Findings in this research offer valuable guidance for the implementation of diversified and precisely tailored measures to address MMHV at various stages of metro operation. This, in turn, contributes to the mitigation of health risks and ensures the sustained and healthy operation and management of metro.

Coupled analysis and simulation of safety risk in subway tunnel construction by shallow-buried excavation method based on system dynamics

To address the existing shortcomings in the research on the coupling of safety risk factors in subway tunnel construction using the shallow-buried excavation method, this paper conducts a coupled analysis and dynamic simulation of the safety risks associated with this construction method. Firstly, by analyzing the mechanisms and effects of risk coupling in shallow-buried excavation construction of subway tunnels, this study divides the risk system into four risk subsystems (human, material, management, and environment), establishes an evaluation index system for the coupling of safety risks, calculates the comprehensive weight values of the risk indicators using the AHP-entropy weight method, and constructs a risk coupling degree model by combining the inverse cloud model and efficacy function. Subsequently, based on the principles of system dynamics, a causal relationship diagram and a system dynamics simulation model for the coupling of “human-material” risks in construction are established using Vensim PLE software. Finally, the case study of the underground excavation section of Chengdu Metro Line 2 is employed to perform dynamic simulation using the established model. By adjusting the relevant risk coupling coefficients and simulation duration, the impact of the coupling of various risk factors on the safety risk level of the human-material coupling system is observed. The simulation results demonstrate that: 1) Heterogeneous coupling of human and material risks has a particularly significant effect on the system’s safety risks; 2) Violations by personnel and initial support structure defects are key risk coupling factors. The findings of this study provide new insights for decision-makers to assess the safety risk of shallow-buried excavation construction in subway tunnel.

Proposal of the risk assessment model of vehicle construction systems' safety under the conditions of Industry 4.0

With the introduction of the concept of the industry 4.0, automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, communication methods, automotive engineering, mechanics, construction and operation of automotive vehicles, and so on, as well as the methods of corporate management are changing. Following this concept, new risks emerge, when workers have to cooperate with collaborative robots, autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, machine learning and learn new methods different from previous processes and systems. The paper first presents the theoretical background related to the topic addressed. The next sections encompass the literature review, including a list of references relevant to achieving the main objective of the paper, as well as a description of the research methods used in the paper. With regard to the main objective, quantitative research concerning the vehicle construction systems' safety issues in industry 4.0 was conducted; i.e., a questionnaire survey was developed within a sufficiently representative sample of respondents. After conducting the survey, the risk assessment model of vehicle construction systems' safety under the conditions of Industry 4.0 was proposed while applying the principles of system dynamics. An integral part of the paper is represented by the discussion of the obtained results and benefits, as well as the formulation of relevant conclusions.

A system dynamics approach to modelling eco‐innovation drivers in companies: Understanding complex interactions using machine learning

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of drivers in the development of eco‐innovation from a system dynamics perspective. While previous literature has made important contributions in identifying factors that influence the development of eco‐innovations, there remains limited understanding of how these drivers act and interact in promoting its development. Therefore, there is a need to develop a framework of relationships and drivers that encourage and support eco‐innovation in companies. This paper develops an integrated framework encompassing key internal, market and governmental factors and their complex interactions using principles of system dynamics and machine learning to address this gap. The research questions how these drivers interact in a dynamic and non‐linear manner to influence the development of eco‐innovation in companies and how can these interactions be effectively modelled and understood, considering the complexities of sustainable business practices and the limitations of traditional linear approaches. We empirically test these questions by using the Spanish Technological Innovation Panel database. The findings demonstrate that eco‐innovation is not solely driven by isolated factors; instead, it emerges from the complex interplay between internal capabilities, governmental policies and market dynamics. By emphasising the synergistic effects of these drivers, the research offers a nuanced understanding of their systemic interactions. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the varying efficiency levels of different drivers, underscoring the pivotal role of environmental corporate policies and the strategic allocation of financial resources. In contrast, cooperation, market forces and regulations exhibit lower efficiency in driving eco‐innovation processes. These insights not only advance theoretical knowledge but also provide valuable guidance for businesses and policymakers, offering a more holistic approach to fostering sustainable innovation.

Exploring the Design of Entrepreneurship Simulation Experimental Projects Based on Interaction Models

Abstract Entrepreneurship is one of the driving forces of economic development in the new era, but entrepreneurship is also highly risky behavior. The goal of constructing the entrepreneurial interactive decision-making model and entrepreneurial project system model is to provide a theoretical reference value for entrepreneurial teams through simulation experiments. The conceptual model of entrepreneurial team interaction decision-making is constructed based on multi-intelligence under the support of relevant theories, and the main influencing factors affecting the interaction decision-making are analyzed and the specific decision-making model is designed on the basis of this. Then, according to the ideas and principles of system dynamics, the boundary of the system is delineated, the scope of research is clarified, the structure of the system is analyzed, the levels of the system are delineated, and the feedback mechanism of the system is determined. The relationship between the system levels is analyzed, feedback loops and causality diagrams are established, and in this way, a mathematical and canonical system dynamics model is established, and finally, simulation prediction and hypothesis testing are carried out. The regression results show that there is a positive effect of mutual influence among the three variables of the interaction decision model: team initiative, team decision performance. The error between the values of this paper’s model for simulation and the actual values is less than 10%, and the improvement of entrepreneurial R&D investment and the conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements can promote the number of entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial structure to different degrees. Effective predictions of the influencing factors and development trends of entrepreneurship in the future have been made, which provides policy references for entrepreneurship to be carried out more effectively in practice.

Economic benefit analysis of the carbon potential of construction waste resource management based on a simulation of carbon trading policy.

The need for safer and cleaner environments for all humankind remains a topical issue that cannot be overemphasized. To provide an updated perspective, this study analyzes the carbon potential of construction waste resource management based on carbon trading policy. In this study, the system dynamics principle was used to establish a carbon potential model of construction and demolition waste (C&DW) resource treatment by taking the regeneration project of Xiancun Village as an example. The results showed that the use of construction waste for recycling and resource treatment can generate enormous opportunities to reduce carbon emission. The implementation of the carbon trading policy can create significant benefits in terms of reducing carbon emission, while the total reduction of carbon emission in the baseline scenario can reach 100.66% when compared to the scenario without a carbon trading policy. Moreover, the findings shows that the combination of the carbon trading policy of "carbon price + free allowance ratio" can improve the return on investment of resource utilization companies and the carbon reduction benefits of the combined policy are greater than those of the single policy, but only if the level of the carbon price or free allowance ratio in the combined policy is accepted by the carbon trading subjects. The results of this research contribute to the theory of construction waste resourceization management, provide the theoretical basis for government departments to introduce carbon reduction policies for construction waste resourceization, and provide guidance for the management of companies' carbon reduction.

Features of the assessment of occupational risks in truck transportation

The purpose of the article is to develop a process of managing the professional (dynamic) risks in freight transportation due to changes in time of dangerous factors.To build the process of managing the professional (dynamic) risks of truck transportation, the main principles of system dynamics using the "tie-butterfly" model for establishment the causal and reciprocal relationships between dangerous factors affecting the drive were used.A model of the connection of dangerous factors of the internal and external environment of the organization, related to their negative impact on the increase in the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event (incident) and the degree of severity over time, has been developed. Based on the interaction of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of the consequences, taking into account changes in the physical and psychological state of the driver, it became possible to develop a dynamic model for assessing the driver's professional risk. Changes in professional (dynamic) risks during the time of a truck driver are proposed for analysis: by hours of the day (from 00:00-24:00 hours); by days of the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday); by season (spring, summer, autumn, winter). Taking into account the interaction of three main components: the presence of a threat or danger, the interaction between a truck and a person, the presence of a catalyst (physical and psychological state of the driver), the amount of professional risk is determined. To check the adequacy of the assessments, taking into account the change in the influence of dangerous factors on the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the degree of severity of injuries from it with a time, an algorithm that allows to monitor every step in the management of professional risks was developed. It was established that an unacceptable level of risk is fixed at night and in winter, under inappropriate climatic conditions, which requires the development of effective safety precautions.The scientific novelty consists in the justification of a dynamic model from assessing the professional risk of a driver, based on the interaction of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of the consequences, taking into account changes in the physical and psychological state of the driver.The practical significance lies in the development of forms for assessing the driver's professional risk.

Measurement of the Satisfaction Level of the Country’s Pharmaceutical Industry with Suppliers of Raw Materials in This Industry Using System Dynamics

Background: The success of the supply chain can be summed up in the satisfaction level of business partners and customers, according to several diverse needs of each of the business partners in the studied supply chain, including the country’s pharmaceutical industry and suppliers of raw materials.
 Methods: This study has attempted to investigate satisfaction according to the views under possible scenarios to improve satisfaction. The model presented in this regard to realize the main objective of this study is based on the principles of system dynamics, and VENSIM DSS has been used for its design.
 Results: according to the study results, it can be acknowledged that the satisfaction of each of the business partners with the supply chain is different from each other, and the best scenarios to improve the satisfaction include an improvement of 3% in inventory management and a reduction by 5% in rework and parallel work during the studied period.
 Conclusions: Under this scenario, the satisfaction of business partners in this regard will improve during the studied period, or in other words, the satisfaction of the parties will move optimally.

Does correlation heuristic dependence reduce due to classroom teaching? A case study from India.

People worldwide have problems understanding the basic stock-flow principles (e.g., correlation heuristic), which govern many everyday tasks. Perhaps, teaching system dynamic concepts in classroom settings might reduce people's dependence on the correlation heuristic. However, limited literature exists on the effectiveness of classroom curricula in reducing reliance on the correlation heuristic. The present research aims to bridge this gap and empirically understand the effects of classroom teaching programs on reducing people's reliance on correlation heuristic and improving people's ability to understand stock-flow concepts. By taking a case from a reputed technology Institute in India, the present research examines how classroom teaching of system dynamics concepts might help students reduce their dependence on the correlation heuristic. The experiment consisted of two between-subjects conditions: the experimental and the control (N = 45 in each condition). The experimental condition consisted of randomly registered students that were taught system dynamics principles over 5-months of classroom training. Though, no teaching took place in the control condition. Participants in both conditions were evaluated on their ability to solve stock-flow problems. Participants in the experimental condition were found to perform better in solving stock-flow problems than subjects in the control condition, and they also relied less on the correlation heuristic. We emphasize the relevance of system dynamics education in graduate curricula in alleviating reliance on the correlation heuristic.

Research on Coordinated Development of Chongqing Agricultural Product E-commerce Logistics Based on System Dynamics Model

At the moment of the rapid development of information society, agriculture is achieving industrial quality growth through the "Internet+" path. Agricultural e-commerce is an important application area. Agricultural e-commerce is a non-linear complex system that involves multiple entities such as trading platforms, trading entities, and farmers. Scientific and technological progress, policy adjustment, and industrial level will have an impact on the agricultural e-commerce industry. The development of the industry requires a systematic analysis of various influencing factors. Based on the in-depth investigation of Chongqing agricultural product e-commerce and logistics, this article uses system dynamics principles to analyze and simulate its internal dynamic mechanism analysis and simulation of the internal dynamic mechanism, and build a coordinated development model of agricultural e-commerce and logistics. Chongqing agricultural product e-commerce and logistics coordinated development system dynamic models, study the way to study the coordinated development of rural e-commerce and logistics, and use Chongqing's relevant data of Chongqing 2015-2020 for empirical simulation analysis. The impact of the influence proposed the effective strategy and method of coordinated development of Chongqing agricultural product e-commerce and logistics. Based on this, this article puts forward countermeasures for the coordinated development of Chongqing's agricultural products e-commerce and logistics, and provides decisions for the development of agricultural product e-commerce development policies for relevant government departments. Based on the development of the stable development of Chongqing agricultural product e-commerce and logistics.

Dynamic life cycle assessment for water treatment implications

Long-term impact tracking of urban water services is an important scientific basis for the sustainable development goals of future foreground systems. This study developed a dynamic life cycle assessment (DLCA) method that considers temporal variation and the resulting impacts to address the challenges of water treatment facilities based on the principles of life cycle assessment (LCA) and system dynamics (SD) models. The model was then demonstrated and validated for a water treatment facility in the Kinmen Islands, Taiwan. The SD model simulates long-term water demand in terms of growth in the domestic, agriculture, livestock, and manufacturing sectors, which provides specific inventory data for LCA calculations, with the aim of showing the impact change for future water treatment scenarios. The results showed that using imported water and reclaimed water reduced Kinmen's reliance on groundwater from 77 % to 43 % and reduced the vulnerability of urban water services. The environmental impact of water treatment plants is determined to be strongly related to the efficiency of water treatment. In the long run, wastewater treatment plants can reduce their impacts with an increase in efficiency (3.7 % impact reduction). Additionally, the development of reclaimed water technology and water savings can reduce the impact by 19 % and 13.7 %, respectively, compared to the implementation of desalination. In terms of energy policy, more profound energy savings were observed when energy saving and structure transformation were simultaneously carried out. On the other hand, desalination poses the most political risk and has energy-associated environmental impacts. The DLCA results from this study showcase the trend of impact variation over time and thus provide valuable insights for future policy-making in mapping out the benefits and priorities of policy promotion.

Hydropolitical System Archetypes: Feedback Structures, Physical Environments, Unintended Behaviors, and a Diagnostic Checklist

Hydropolitics is defined as the systematic study of conflict and cooperation in transboundary water basins, affecting around 40% of the world’s population. There has been great advancement in studies endeavoring to explore linkages between hydropolitical drivers and hydropolitical situations in transboundary basins. To add to this, we posit that hydropolitics would benefit from a system thinking approach that has remained less addressed in the literature. For this purpose, considering a transboundary basin as a system, this study is built on the main principle of system dynamics, which implies that a system’s structure determines its behavior. Incorporating system archetypes into hydropolitics can provide a framework for assessing hydropolitical behavior according to the potential structure of archetypes. In this paper, we discuss five hydropolitical system archetypes and their feedback loop structures, the required physical environments, and potential unintended behavior over time. Finally, an example of a diagnostic checklist is presented that will help riparian states recognize patterns of behavior they may face in the future. This paper lays the groundwork for gaining insight into using system archetypes in projecting plausible hydropolitical behaviors and understanding past behaviors in transboundary basins.

Construction of Internal and External Environmental Management System of Human Resources in Civil Aviation Institutions Based on System Dynamics

The basic investment needed for the development of civil aviation transportation has a long period, large investment, and strong exclusivity. The quantity of fixed investment should match the scale of the stage of civil aviation development. Scientific demand forecasting is the basis of reasonable planning of civil aviation infrastructure and fleet construction. Based on the principle of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the internal and external influencing factors of air passenger transport demand, and establishes a system dynamics model between civil aviation passenger transport market demand forecast and human resource management system. Using the model, based on the level of economic and social development, it is predicted that the demand for air passenger transport will reach 1 billion passengers around 2024. The demand system dynamics model of civil aviation passenger transport market has universal applicability and long-term effectiveness for the derived long-term demand forecast and analysis of civil aviation transportation. The results show that based on the derivative characteristics of air transport demand, the demand influencing factors of air passenger transport market can be divided into external and internal factors, which are mainly affected by population, economy, residents’ consumption level, air-rail competition, and other factors. Internal factors mainly include ticket price and service level.

Formation Mechanism and Dynamic Evolution Laws About Unsafe Behavior of New Generation of Construction Workers Based on China's Construction Industry: Application of Grounded Theory and System Dynamics.

Construction workers’ unsafe behavior is a major cause of safety accidents and injuries, therefore, a profound understanding of the formation process and evolution laws about construction workers’ unsafe behavior is conducive to taking measures to prevent incidents. At present, the new generation of construction workers (NGCWs) born after 1980 are gradually becoming the main force at construction sites in China. Given that generational differences of construction workers can cause the discrepancies in their thoughts and attitudes when engaging in safety-related activities, this study aims to investigate the formation mechanism and dynamic evolution laws about NGCWs’ unsafe behavior based on the context of China’s construction industry. From the perspective of behavior motivation, in-depth semi-structured interviews with 18 NGCWs and 7 grassroots managers were conducted, and data analysis followed a three-step coding process based on grounded theory. Through continuous comparison, abstraction and analysis, the stimulus-organism-response theory was introduced and expanded to construct a three-stage formation mechanism model. On this basis, the causal diagram and stock flow diagram were developed based on system dynamics principles to reflect the dynamic feedback relationships of the factors in the static formation mechanism model, and simulation was carried out using Vensim PLE software. The results show that three types of internal needs and three types of external incentives stimulate corresponding motivations for NGCWs’ unsafe behavior. Two types of individual factors, five types of situational factors and behavior result play an influencing role in the decision-making process of externalizing motivation into behavior. Under the synergistic effect of multiple factors, the level of unsafe behavior displays a downward trend, and the rate of decrease is slow first and then fast. Furthermore, among individual factors and situational factors, safety awareness and safety management system have the most significant effect on the level of unsafe behavior, while situational factors play a more obvious role. The findings can provide theoretical support and practical references to China’s construction companies and government departments for the purpose of improving NGCWs’ unsafe behavior.

The Multiagent Evolutionary Game Research of Enterprise Resource Sharing on a Shared Manufacturing Platform

Shared manufacturing is the application innovation of the digital economy in the field of manufacturing and brings new opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of China and even the global manufacturing industry. In order to explore the strategy selection of enterprises on the shared manufacturing platform, this study constructs a two‐party evolutionary game model and analyzes the dynamic relationship between manufacturing enterprise A and manufacturing enterprise B. Furthermore, in order to explore the influence of consumers’ strategies of manufacturing enterprises on the platform, the study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model of manufacturing enterprise A, manufacturing enterprise B, and consumers. Based on the principles of system dynamics, the paper uses Matlab to simulate the evolutionary game process dynamically and discusses the influence of parameter changes on resource‐sharing enthusiasm and strategy selection. The research shows that in the two‐party game, manufacturing enterprises are more inclined to adopt the strategy of sharing manufacturing resources. In the tripartite game, consumers’ decision‐making will affect the strategic choice of manufacturing enterprises. Consumers tend to establish strong dependence on shared‐manufacturing products in the process of sharing manufacturing resources.

ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ СИСТЕМНОЙ ДИНАМИКИ ДЛЯ РЕШЕНИЯ НЕКОТОРЫХ ПРОБЛЕМ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ГИБКИХ МЕТОДОЛОГИЙ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРИ РАЗРАБОТКЕ ПРОГРАММНОГО ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ

Using Agile methodology for software development has, along with wellknown advantages over the traditional waterfall model, some serious disadvantages. The risks of dismissal of the most qualified employees due their underload in customer projects are identified. The purpose of the study is to develop such a model for organizing software development processes that will reduce the risk of losing highly qualified personnel. System methodology in terms of system dynamics with the construction of causal loop diagrams was used for that. The fundamental principles of system dynamics are considered as the theoretical basis of the solution. The origin and evolution of the problem of forced downtime and decrease in employee motivation and loyalty are described and shown in dynamics. As a novelty, one can indicate both the identified negative results of the application of flexible methodologies, and the approach to solving this problem described and shown in dynamics. The solution is to virtualize the development team and introduce the role of a proxy specialist. The proposed approach has been partly validated, but further validation and more precise definition of its applicability are required. The results of the study can be used in organizations specializing in custom software development for several customers. The proposed approaches relate to both project management and the organization of company resource management, including practical work with the most valuable (highly qualified and highly motivated) company personnel. Directions for further research on the development of a hybrid model of interaction between project participants, carried out according to the traditional waterfall model and Agile methodology, are determined.

Back to basics: fundamental principles of system dynamics and queueing theory

Back to basics: fundamental principles of system dynamics and queueing theory

System dynamics kinetic model for predicting biogas production in anaerobic condition: Preliminary assessment.

This preliminary assessment of a grey-box model, was predicated on system dynamics principles and developed using Vensim® DSS software. The purpose is to predict biogas production under anaerobic conditions for energy utilization at the design stage. To describe the process of a developed system dynamics model to predict biogas production under anaerobic conditions. This method involves two-stage kinetics of the biogas production process in anaerobic conditions using the first-order and Gompertz functions. The model is depicted in two parts: causal loop diagram and stock-flow diagram. The causal loop diagram describes the anaerobic digestion process a substrate undergoes for the production of biogas, while stock-flow diagram depicts basic building blocks of the dynamic behavior of an anaerobic digestion process. Primary data is from a laboratory-scale experiment of biogas production using vegetal wastes, while the secondary one is from the literature on studies using similar substrates. Primary and secondary data are used to validate and stimulate the developed model. The kinetic model shows the substrate being reduced exponentially with increasing time; consumption of substrate and production of methane and carbon dioxide follows exponential growth and decay pattern, with carbon dioxide production starting early compared to methane, and was produced at a rate faster due to the strong and resilient characteristics of fermentative microorganisms. Comparing data from empirical and model simulation shows some close relationship, though not too perfectly. Both results reflect signs of inhibitions occurring within the substrates in the digester under anaerobic conditions explaining the low methane yield or instability.

Networks of Networks: An Essay on Multi-Level Biological Organization.

The multi-level organization of nature is self-evident: proteins do interact among them to give rise to an organized metabolism, while in the same time each protein (a single node of such interaction network) is itself a network of interacting amino-acid residues allowing coordinated motion of the macromolecule and systemic effect as allosteric behavior. Similar pictures can be drawn for structure and function of cells, organs, tissues, and ecological systems. The majority of biologists are used to think that causally relevant events originate from the lower level (the molecular one) in the form of perturbations, that “climb up” the hierarchy reaching the ultimate layer of macroscopic behavior (e.g., causing a specific disease). Such causative model, stemming from the usual genotype-phenotype distinction, is not the only one. As a matter of fact, one can observe top-down, bottom-up, as well as middle-out perturbation/control trajectories. The recent complex network studies allow to go further the pure qualitative observation of the existence of both non-linear and non-bottom-up processes and to uncover the deep nature of multi-level organization. Here, taking as paradigm protein structural and interaction networks, we review some of the most relevant results dealing with between networks communication shedding light on the basic principles of complex system control and dynamics and offering a more realistic frame of causation in biology.

Ekolojik Gezegen Modellemeleri ve Anlam Dünyası Olarak Geleceğin Coğrafyası

Echoes of and debates around modelling Earth and human activity using system dynamics principles to analyze impact of industrial capitalism and consumer society over ecology, and possible futures thereof, has always found a platform extending beyond academia. In this article, three most well-known planetary models produced in different contexts since 1970’s, Limits to Growth, Ecological Footprint and Planetary Boundaries has been comparatively discussed together with criticisms and their reflection in political debate as well as their particular meaning for today’s context of a highly determining anthropogenic global climate change. Efforts of interpreting and adjusting these global models in a local and regional scale and their existing and potential interactions with physical and human geography present significant opportunities for most needed societal transformations and sense-making processes.