Principles Of System Dynamics Research Articles

Research on Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Model of Power Distribution Internet of Things Based on System Dynamics

Access of distributed energy to power distribution Internet of Things is of great significance to improving resource utilization and achieving emission reduction, and is an important means to improve the comprehensive benefits of distribution Internet of Things. Considering that the comprehensive evaluation of power distribution Internet of Things is a complex and dynamic process, this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation model of power distribution Internet of Things based on system 1 dynamics. Firstly, according to the principle of system dynamics, the system dynamics index is established from the two parts of economic benefit improvement and social benefit drive, and the corresponding system causality diagram is drawn. Secondly, regression analysis is used to determine the system dynamics equation of the comprehensive evaluation index. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation method of analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the comprehensive benefits of a provincial power distribution Internet of Things. The results show that the system dynamics model considering the correlation of each index makes the evaluation result more objective and more valuable for application.

Parametrization of bass diffusion model on COVID-19 first wave data

The paper addresses the development of the system for the parameterization of the Bass Diffusion Model on Covid-19 Data. Continuous model developed by the principle of system dynamics is presented. The parameters of the model are tuned to fit the data with genetic algorithm in Powersim simulation tool. The validation is performed by standard simulation validation techniques. The input data used in the experiments were gathered by publically available databases. In particular, the data collected in Austria, France, Italy, South Korea, Slovenia and Swiss were considered in this study. The results have shown that the simple model with is capable of predicting the growth with S-shaped curve with high accuracy.

The use of the system dynamics model to determine the probability of company default

This research demonstrates the approach of using the system dynamics model to assess the probability of company default that is a relevant problem in credit risk analysis. System dynamics offers models in which the reality is simulated structurally. According to the principles of system dynamics, the company is represented in the form of continuously interacting elements and external factors. Enterprise dynamics and the enterprise’s resistance to various macroeconomic environments are determined by functional dependencies and differential equations that describe the links between the elements of the model. The behavior of random macroeconomic variables is described with a multivariate ARIMA-GARCH model, which is used in econometrics to predict non-stationary time series. The probability of company default is determined as a result of experiments with the obtained system dynamics model using the Monte Carlo simulation. The estimation of a default probability is the overall share of macroeconomic scenarios leading to the ruin of the enterprise. A comparative analysis of the obtained results and data from Moody’s and Fitch demonstrates the closeness of the probability of company defaults obtained by simulation and corresponding estimates of rating agencies, which makes it possible to conclude that the considered approach is acceptable for estimating the probability of default of a borrower.

Development of gear dynamic performance testing machine

With the development of gears towards high temperature, high pressure, high speed and high stress, gear measurement, in which only the static geometric accuracy is considered, is unable to meet the current application requirements. While, the low precision and single function gear tester constrains the measurement of gear dynamic performance. For the resolution of this problem, based on the principle of gear system dynamics and several precision mechanical design techniques, a gear dynamic testing machine has been developed, providing new instruments for gear testing. On the basis of research of the principle of dynamic performance test, the primary measurement items of the testing machine have been determined. The measuring principles of each item and the driving and loading form of the testing machine have been examined. The measurement and control system of the testing machine and its corresponding software have been developed. The instrument can not only obtain the static precision index of the gear, but also obtain the dynamic performance index of the gear in variable working conditions. According to the actual test, the uncertainty of instrument is 3.8 μm and the external disturbance caused by the shaft vibration is less than 0.6 μm, which can meet the 5–6 grade precision gear testing requirement.

A bibliometric-qualitative study about the use of System Dynamics in the areas of Project and Program Management

Abstract Despite the proliferation as well as great advances in the development of dynamic models applied to project management, research that applies system dynamics principles to program management does not seem to be as fertile. The objective of this paper is to obtain a more accurate vision of how the system dynamics theory is being used in the development of the program management field. The bibliometric-qualitative study confirms there is a robust use of system dynamics tools in the project management area, with a wide range of applications as well as solid results. The study, however, also shows that for programs, despite a noticeable increase regarding the interest in program management by organizations, clearly there is much less research uniting program management and system dynamics. More importantly, some dynamic models are being used to improve the performance of programs, however, few studies take into consideration the specific variables from program management. Thus, we conclude that current research on these two topics can only be viewed as fragmented and in its early stages, offering ample room for improvement.

Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies

In recent years, China has introduced a series of energy substitution policies, aiming to achieve a fundamental change in the way of energy development. Firstly, based on the world energy model constructed by IEA, this paper determines the main driving factors in the field of power substitution, including economy, technology, policy, energy price and environmental factors. Secondly, based on the principle of system dynamics, a causal relationship diagram of five driving factors is constructed to clarify the feedback and linkage relationship between the factors. Finally, this paper proposes a hybrid prediction model combining Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) and Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM), namely SSA-LSSVM, which fully considers the influence of relevant factors of electric energy substitution, while avoiding the subjectivity of model parameter setting. The results show that the future development of electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has maintained a rapid pace. The potential for electric energy substitution in the industrial production sector is large, and there is a large space for mining and operation optimization in the residential heating and transportation sectors. This paper provides a basis for the future development and improvement of the strategic plan of electric energy substitution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

MODELING OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MECHANISM OF TECHNOLOGICAL EXCHANGE IN THE FORM OF LEASING

The article examines the importance of leasing in the context of the financial and economic crisis. The conditions have been studied and tools for the implementation of technological exchange processes in the form of leasing have been presented as a way to attract foreign investment and enhance the innovative activity of the lessee. The significance of planning the lessee's budgets on the basis of leasing contracts in providing innovative modernization of industrial enterprises has been revealed. An economic and mathematical model has been developed for managing the contractual activities of a lessee as the main participant in technological exchange in the form of leasing based on the principles of system dynamics. The proposed management model forms the basis of the organizational and economic mechanism of technological exchange, the functioning of the leasing business and the leasing services market. The practical application of the proposed technologies will allow the lessee of equipment to determine the most favorable conditions at the stage of concluding a lease contract, and on a global scale to ensure the development of the innovative component of economic processes.Key words: leasing, innovative modernization of the economy, financial and banking system, lessee, contract activity, model, leasing efficiency, financial plan, budgeting.

Evaluating urban sustainability under different development pathways: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

With the building of sustainable cities being listed as one of the Sustainable Development Goals in the 2030 Agenda, cities in developing countries are facing more severe challenges. Therefore, it has become very urgent to evaluate and compare sustainability under different policy intervention scenarios. Based on the principle of system dynamics, this study constructed an urban sustainability evaluation model covering six subsystems: economy, livelihood, risk, environment, pollution governance, and resource. Using 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as study cases, 5 future policy scenarios were designed under the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to simulate the variation of the urban sustainability index in each city by 2035. The results reveal that: (1) Medium and small-sized cities around Beijing are facing more challenges to achieve sustainable urban development; (2) the urban sustainability index in each city varies under different policy scenarios. (3) the gap of urban sustainability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region does not show a significant narrowing trend and is likely to widen in the future. The approach can also be applied to other regions to provide decision support for choosing urban development pathways after comparing possible future trajectories of sustainable urban development.

Dynamic Model of a Sustainable Water Resources Utilization System with Coupled Water Quality and Quantity in Tianjin City

With the development of industrial and agricultural production and the social economy, the demand for water resources has gradually increased. In this paper, based on the principles of system dynamics, a sustainable water resources utilization model with coupled water quality and quantity is established using STELLA software to assess the sustainable use of water resources. The model includes two modules: a water supply module and a water quality module. The water supply module includes four sub-systems: economy, population, water supply, and water demand. The water quality module consists of an environmental sub-system. The model is suitable for Tianjin, where water resources are scarce. Calibration is performed using data from 2013–2016, and verification is performed using data from 2017. The simulation results are good. In order to compare the sustainable use of water resources in different development scenarios in Tianjin for 2025, a sensitivity analysis is performed for each variable, and four decision variables are selected to establish four water resources use scenarios (Scenarios 1–4). The results show that, compared with scenario 1, water shortages in scenarios 2 and 3 are delayed. Scenario 4, with stable economic growth and environmental consideration, can effectively resolve the contradiction between water supply and demand in the future, and is more conducive to the improvement of water quality. Finally, based on the above research, measures to solve water resources problems are proposed, in order to provide a reference for the sustainable use of water resources and optimization of water resources allocation in Tianjin.

EQUILIBRIUM game: a virtual field trip through a complex system

<scp>EQUILIBRIUM</scp> game: a virtual field trip through a complex system

Dynamic Response of a Casting Crane Rigid‐Flexible Coupling System to High Temperature

To determine the influence of temperature on the mechanical properties of crane metal structures, three Q355 alloy steel samples were processed and their elastic moduli were tested at different temperatures using a metal tension test bed. The constitutive equation for the elastic modulus of Q355 alloy steel at different temperatures was predicted using test data and a neural network algorithm. Based on crane structural characteristics and the principle of system dynamics, a coupling vibration model was established that included the crane flexible girder, cabin, trolley, crane, and temperature. System motion equations were established according to the Lagrange equation, and the approximate solution of nonlinear system vibration was solved by the direct integration method (the Newmark method). The dynamic characteristics of the main beam and cabin were analyzed at different temperatures, as well as safety during service. The results show that, with increasing temperature, the maximum midspan displacement of the main beam increases gradually, by 14.3%, 21.4%, and 57.1% at temperatures of 300°C, 400°C, and 600°C, respectively. The cabin vibration displacement increases with temperature, by up to 32.5% at 600°C, but the influence of temperature on cabin vibration acceleration is not obvious. It was concluded that the influence of temperature on the dynamic characteristics of the main beam must be considered during the design stage of cranes. The proposed model and analysis method provide a theoretical basis for the design of casting cranes according to temperature.

An environmental assessment model of construction and demolition waste based on system dynamics: a case study in Guangzhou.

At present, China is in the rapid development stage of urbanization, and construction activities are becoming more frequent. This is accompanied by a large amount of construction and demolition waste (C&DW), which raises many problems with its governance, such as occupying valuable land resources, causing air pollution, and consuming raw materials. In this study, taking Guangzhou as an example, the system dynamics principle was used to establish an environmental assessment model of C&DW, and Vensim software was used to simulate and analyze the environmental, economic, and social impacts of various disposal methods of C&DW. The results showed that (1) among all waste disposal methods, landfill disposal had the highest greenhouse gas emissions. It was estimated that the greenhouse gas emissions from landfill disposal will account for 75% of the total emissions in 2030, while the greenhouse gas emissions from recycling disposal will only account for 0.5%. (2) The simulation results showed that, according to the current data, the land area occupied by waste landfills and illegal dumping in 2030 will be about 4.88 million m2, and the economic loss caused by land loss and global warming will account for 9.1% of Guangzhou's GDP in 2030, which is equivalent to the national economy of a regional city with a less developed economy. (3) Enhanced supervision could significantly reduce the amount of illegal dumping, but its effect on landfill disposal and recycling would be very limited. According to the results of the simulation analysis, some suggestions were put forward to improve the environmental, economic, and social impact of C&DW disposal in Guangzhou.

Research on Environmental Feedback Mechanism Based on System Dynamics

Cultural science and technology integration and innovation has become a new way to promote the coordinated development of culture and science and technology. Based on the theory of fusion innovation and collaborative innovation, this paper applies the basic principles of system dynamics to construct the causality model of the interaction between cultural system and technology system, and uses Vensim PLE software to simulate the system and analyze the path of cultural technology fusion innovation and its influencing factors. The research results show that: culture and technology integration innovation system is composed of complex feedback mechanisms that interact with each other. Each feedback loop represents the realization path of cultural science and technology fusion innovation. In the implementation path, cooperation between industry, universities and research institutes, market demand forecasting accuracy, innovation there is a significant positive impact between the perfection of incentive mechanism, the perfection of cultural intermediary service system and the integration of cultural science and technology innovation.

Global CO2 emission reduction policies and West African electricity system: Case for transformational access

Based on the UN Human Development Index, the West African sub-region holds one of lowest indices in development around the world. There is a glaring need for the sub-region to increase its electricity capacity; however, stringent global CO2 policies have ‘choking’ effects on the growth of the electricity sector in energy deprived countries, like the West African Member States. This study examines the West Africa electric power sector under a range of technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties, positing that there is the need to frame policies from the premise of ‘need’ rather than a ‘circumstantial’ perspective, which, in this study, relates to the global policies on CO2 emission reduction. Though CO2 is the inevitable by-product of combusting fossil fuels to generate electricity, it should also be viewed from the perspective of its significant benefits as regards provision of social welfare of individuals. This study evaluated the broad strategies in policy formulation and implementation (top-down versus bottom-up analysis) and applied these strategies to examine investment decision versus pricing regime and electricity system value chain (upstream versus downstream analysis). System dynamics principles were used to forecast what future consumption will look like, which shows that there would be marked increase in demand followed by increased emission without intervention. This study concludes that global CO2 policy would need to be re-considered such that energy deprived countries, like those in West Africa, would be able to implement a sustainable development agenda through growth strategy of bottom-up approach to ‘free’ their electricity system for improved living standard, irrespective of climate change issues.

The influencing factors study on environmental responsibility motive of oil and gas enterprises

In China, as heavily polluting enterprises, oil and gas enterprises, while playing a major role in national economy and the people's livelihood, should assume the environmental responsibility of state-owned enterprises. Through in-depth corporate research, the influencing factors of the environmental responsibility motive of oil and gas enterprises are explored. Principal component analysis method was used to reduce dimensionality of influencing factors, extract four main influencing factors. Then the relationship between each influencing factor and the implementation of environmental responsibility of oil and gas enterprises, so as to the relationship between various factors, was analysed in depth, and the causality diagram was creatively drawn according to the system dynamics principle. On this basis, the realisation path of the environmental responsibility dynamic mechanism of oil and gas enterprises is proposed, which is of great significance for promoting the fulfilment of the environmental responsibility of oil and gas enterprises and achieving ecological sustainable development.

KHL: Consulting for Managing Sales Force Attrition (A)

Kalpak Healthcare Limited (KHL), a large pharmaceutical company in the southern part of India, once faced severe sales force turnover in its Life Branded Medications SBU, popularly called the Branded SBU (B-SBU). It became an issue of highest concern to the top management of KHL; so they appointed a team of consultants from a premier management school in the region to study the issue and recommend possible solutions and strategies. Over a period of 6 months, the consultants conducted extensive research—studying internal company records, analysing the industry and external environment, gathering qualitative data through in-depth interviews (DIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) among KHL employees and executing a division-wide quantitative survey labelled as Manpower Mood Meter (M3) among the field executives—and finally came up with recommendations. The case is organized as two independent, successive ones—A and B. Case (A) describes the consultants’ engagement with KHL and ends with them pondering over the types of analyses to be done with the huge volume of data they had collected. Case (B) details the kinds of analyses they actually do and the inferences they draw. The set of recommendations the consultants finally make to the KHL top management is given in the epilogue of the teaching note. The critical value of this case lies in its ability to open up the students’ minds to the dynamic interplay of multiple factors—individual, managerial, organizational, industrial-contextual and historical—that holistically affect a phenomenon like ‘attrition’ in organizations. This could perhaps also be one of those rare cases that makes use of the principles of System Dynamics in a real, applied and combined context of marketing and human resource (HR) management.

KHL: Consulting for Managing Sales Force Attrition (B)

Kalpak Healthcare Limited (KHL), a large pharmaceutical company in the southern part of India, was facing severe sales force turnover in its Life Branded Medications SBU, popularly called the Branded SBU (B-SBU). It became an issue of highest concern to the top management of KHL; so they appointed a team of consultants from a premier management school in the region to study the issue and to recommend possible solutions and strategies. Over a period of six months, the consultants conducted extensive research—studying internal company records, analysing the industry and external environment, gathering qualitative data through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions among KHL employees and executing a division wide quantitative survey labelled as Manpower Mood Meter (M3) among the field executives—to finally come up with recommendations. The Case is organized as two independent, successive ones—A and B. Case (A) describes the consultants’ engagement with KHL and ends with them pondering over the types of analyses to be done with the huge volume of data they had collected. Case (B) details the kinds of analyses they actually did and the inferences they drew. The set of recommendations that the consultants finally make to KHL top management is given in the epilogue of the teaching note. The critical value of this case lies in its ability to open up the students’ mind to the dynamic interplay of multiple factors—individual, managerial, organizational, industrial-contextual and historical—that holistically affect a phenomenon like ‘attrition’ in organizations. This could perhaps also be one of those rare cases that makes use of the principles of System Dynamics in a real, applied and combined contexts of marketing and human resource management.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF LOW CARBON ENTERPRISES IN SICHUAN PROVINCE BASED ON NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING HIERARCHICAL DYNAMIC MODEL

Low carbon economy has gradually become a hot topic in all walks of life. In order to analyze the development trend of low-carbon enterprises in Sichuan Province, this paper first uses the principle of system dynamics, combined with economics and mathematical statistics. And all of that has been realized according to the method of cognitive calculation, comprehensive analysis and processing of data, adopting a large-scale sampling survey, screening samples, and using natural language processing model. It deals with an analysis of the results to meet the development needs of low carbon enterprises in Sichuan province. Aiming to analyze the development capability of low carbon enterprises in Sichuan Province, the computer simulation model of Vensim PLE, a special simulation software for system dynamics, was established. In order to analyze the development trend of Sichuan low-carbon enterprises more effectively, this paper also uses the AHP method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to evaluate the development ability of Sichuan low-carbon enterprises. By comparing the simulation results, the good application prospect of system dynamics in scenario analysis of low carbon enterprises is verified.

Mapping supply dynamics in renewable feedstock enabled industries: A systems theory perspective on \u2018green\u2019 pharmaceuticals

This paper provides a multi-stage multi-layer mapping methodology for capturing the macro-level supply chain dynamics that govern industrial systems using renewable feedstocks. The mapping approach combines the Industrial Systems Mapping and System Dynamics principles to systematically capture the interrelations across: (i) institutional players, (ii) sector specialists, (iii) products and intermediates, (iv) production operations, and (v) firms within the supply chain. The interfaces are further explored at four interconnected and mutually interacting theme areas of analysis, namely: (i) renewable chemical feedstocks, (ii) production technologies, (iii) target markets, and (iv) value and economic viability. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach by mapping the dynamics in industrial systems for the production of ‘green’ pharmaceuticals, particularly via the illustrative case of paracetamol. Through the use of the proposed integrated mapping process the case study demonstrates the principal interrelationships and inter-firm dynamics between the different layers of analysis. Three main drivers are identified that could enhance supply network transformations for improved viability of these developing industrial systems, namely: (i) regulatory conformance with market requirements, (ii) system level feasibility assessment of given renewable feedstocks, and (iii) target market volume demand. The causal feedback elements of the provided mapping technique indicate that it could support the analysis of industrial systems’ transformation dynamics enabled by renewable feedstocks. The standardisation of the methodology and its elements provides for an effective visualisation technique with cross-industry relevance.

T. Pimonenko, O. Lyulyov, O. Chygryn. Marketing of green investment: collaboration between main stakeholders.

The paper deals with analyses of the preconditions to develop mechanisms for attracting additional green investments to finance the achievement of sustainable development goals and the country’s green growth. At the same time, the authors proved that one of the most attractive ways to avoid the current barriers (stereotyped thinking, information asymmetry, the inconsistency of goals and interests among stakeholders, etc.) was the formation of the promotion program for green investments. The authors identified the main shareholders of the green investment market and characterized their interests, considering the specifics of green investments. Moreover, the authors developed the stakeholders’ collaboration mechanism of the green investment market, considering their interests through a distinct economic, motivational, organizational, regulatory and marketing support. In the paper, the authors justified the necessity to format stakeholders’ collaboration mechanism basing on system dynamics principles in order to minimize the negative shocks, contradictions and conflicts in the interaction chains between stakeholders. Within the framework of the developed collaborative mechanism, the authors described 8P marketing concept taking into account the specifics of green investments: green pricing, green investment as a product, positioning in the green investment market, promotion of the green brand, the formation of a green image and brand, key stakeholders in the green investment market, government support and political climate, green production, quality and certification. In addition, along with traditional marketing instrument of the stakeholders’ collaboration mechanism, the authors allocated modern marketing instruments to promote green investments. The authors identified the further investigation direction as follows: analyse of the approaches to increase the trust level of key stakeholders to the brand green; analyse of the approaches to the format the green brand as for the country as for the company.