Abstract
With the development of industrial and agricultural production and the social economy, the demand for water resources has gradually increased. In this paper, based on the principles of system dynamics, a sustainable water resources utilization model with coupled water quality and quantity is established using STELLA software to assess the sustainable use of water resources. The model includes two modules: a water supply module and a water quality module. The water supply module includes four sub-systems: economy, population, water supply, and water demand. The water quality module consists of an environmental sub-system. The model is suitable for Tianjin, where water resources are scarce. Calibration is performed using data from 2013–2016, and verification is performed using data from 2017. The simulation results are good. In order to compare the sustainable use of water resources in different development scenarios in Tianjin for 2025, a sensitivity analysis is performed for each variable, and four decision variables are selected to establish four water resources use scenarios (Scenarios 1–4). The results show that, compared with scenario 1, water shortages in scenarios 2 and 3 are delayed. Scenario 4, with stable economic growth and environmental consideration, can effectively resolve the contradiction between water supply and demand in the future, and is more conducive to the improvement of water quality. Finally, based on the above research, measures to solve water resources problems are proposed, in order to provide a reference for the sustainable use of water resources and optimization of water resources allocation in Tianjin.
Highlights
Water is an indispensable material foundation for human survival and social development
Based on the water supply data published in the Tianjin Water resources Bulletin 2013–2016, the model was calibrated, and the relative errors were calculated
The difference between the total water consumption in the economic development scenario in the first three years, as compared to the status quo scenario, was small; the gap gradually widened, and the trend declined after reaching a peak in 2021, which may be due to further development of the economy, promoting the improvement of industrial technology and further saving part of the water resources as an ideal solution
Summary
Water is an indispensable material foundation for human survival and social development. An object-oriented system dynamics method has been used to establish a model of the water resources system in the Yellow River Basin, with which the sustainability of the regional water resources systems was evaluated [11]. The effects of population growth and climate change on water resources in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV) in the semi-arid region of southern Nevada have been studied using a system dynamics model, combining water conservation and pricing policies to promote the sustainable development of water resources [12]. An object-oriented system dynamics model was established through a decision-making process for water resources exploration, and the correlation between the availability of water resources and the demand for water caused by industry, agricultural production, and population growth was obtained [14]. Combining system dynamics with geographic information systems (GIS) and proposing a new method called space system dynamics (SSD) to model feedback-based time and space dynamic processes, a single modeling framework was provided for the development of conceptually different models and modeling complex dynamic processes based on spatiotemporal feedback [12]
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