Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a process of managing the professional (dynamic) risks in freight transportation due to changes in time of dangerous factors.To build the process of managing the professional (dynamic) risks of truck transportation, the main principles of system dynamics using the "tie-butterfly" model for establishment the causal and reciprocal relationships between dangerous factors affecting the drive were used.A model of the connection of dangerous factors of the internal and external environment of the organization, related to their negative impact on the increase in the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event (incident) and the degree of severity over time, has been developed. Based on the interaction of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of the consequences, taking into account changes in the physical and psychological state of the driver, it became possible to develop a dynamic model for assessing the driver's professional risk. Changes in professional (dynamic) risks during the time of a truck driver are proposed for analysis: by hours of the day (from 00:00-24:00 hours); by days of the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday); by season (spring, summer, autumn, winter). Taking into account the interaction of three main components: the presence of a threat or danger, the interaction between a truck and a person, the presence of a catalyst (physical and psychological state of the driver), the amount of professional risk is determined. To check the adequacy of the assessments, taking into account the change in the influence of dangerous factors on the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the degree of severity of injuries from it with a time, an algorithm that allows to monitor every step in the management of professional risks was developed. It was established that an unacceptable level of risk is fixed at night and in winter, under inappropriate climatic conditions, which requires the development of effective safety precautions.The scientific novelty consists in the justification of a dynamic model from assessing the professional risk of a driver, based on the interaction of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of the consequences, taking into account changes in the physical and psychological state of the driver.The practical significance lies in the development of forms for assessing the driver's professional risk.

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