Rubber Prices Research Articles

Crude oil futures to manage the price risk of natural rubber: Empirical evidence from India

The trading of natural rubber derivatives in the Indian commodity exchanges was banned several times in the past. Hence, in India, the derivatives on natural rubber are not traded actively and regularly. We have examined the possibility of a forecast model and a cross hedge tool for the natural rubber price by using crude oil futures in India. Results of the Johansen cointegration test proved that there is no cointegration equation in the model; hence, there is no scope to develop long-run models or error correction models. We have developed a vector autoregressive [VAR(2)] model to forecast the rubber price, and we examined the possibility of a cross hedge for natural rubber further by using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger causality test. We have extended our research to a structural VAR analysis to examine the effect of crude futures and exchange rate shocks on the natural rubber price. Our results showed that there is a short-term relationship between the crude oil futures price, the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Indian rupee, the Malaysian ringgit to the Indian rupee and the Thai baht to the Indian rupee; and the natural rubber price in India. The effort of policymakers to cause the Indian rupee to appreciate against the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit may increase the natural rubber price in India. Natural rubber traders, growers and consumers can use crude futures to hedge the price risk. The Indian Rubber Board can suggest the VAR(2) model to predict the short-run price for natural rubber.

Pengaruh kurs, inflasi, PDB dan harga karet internasional terhadap ekspor karet Indonesia Ke Tiongkok dan Amerika Serikat

This study aims to: 1) calculate and analyze the development of exchange rates, inflation, GDP, international rubber prices, and Indonesian rubber exports to China and the United States. 2) To determine the income contribution of women workers in Talang Village, 3). To calculate and analyze the factors that affect the export of Indonesian rubber to China and the United States. The analytical method used is descriptive quantitative using multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that the exchange rate development fluctuated from 2001 to 2019, with an average exchange rate development from 2001 to 2019 of 3.13 percent. Then the average general annual inflation of Indonesia for 19 years with inflation developments that occur up and down or fluctuate. The average growth of rubber prices is 9.24 percent. Furthermore, the volume of rubber exports to China in 2001-2019 tends to decrease. The average development of rubber export volume to China in 2001-2019 was -1.95 percent. Meanwhile, the development of rubber export volume to America in 2001-2019 tends to increase. The average growth of rubber export volume to China in 2001-2019 was 1.34 percent. Based on the results of multiple linear regression, the importance of rubber exports to China is influenced by the variables of the exchange rate, GDP, and rubber prices. Meanwhile, the rubber price variable only affects the volume of rubber exports to America. Keywords: Export of rubber, Exchange rate, Inflation, GDP, Rubber price

Falling price induced diversification strategies and rural inequality: Evidence of smallholder rubber farmers

• This study uses a panel data of smallholder rubber farmers in Upper Mekong Region. • Smallholders tend to adopt diversification strategy in response to rubber price declines. • More dependence on rubber results in lower livelihood diversification. • Diversification strategy contributes to improving income and reducing rural inequality. While the expansions of natural rubber in the greater Mekong region from the 1990s were ambitious, the persistently low commodity price of rubber from 2012 makes smallholder rubber farmers suffer from vulnerable livelihoods. This study sheds light on the adjustments in livelihood strategies of smallholder rubber farmers when the upsurge in rubber prices came to an end. Based on the two-wave panel data from some 600 smallholder rubber farmers in the upper Mekong region, Southern Yunnan province of China, this study shows the diversification strategies of smallholders in response to falling rubber prices and examines the impacts of livelihood diversification strategies on farmer income and rural inequality. The results suggest that smallholder rubber farmers tend to shift family labor from farms to off-farm employment and diversify their livelihoods in the context of declining rubber prices. Notably, farmers with relatively low dependence on rubber are more likely to diversify their livelihoods. The falling price induced diversification strategy makes smallholders more resilient against future risks and narrows the rural income gap. The findings of this study advance the literature by providing evidence on how farmers' livelihood strategy and rural inequality change in the face of periodical rubber price volatility.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENDAPATAN RUMAH TANGGA PETANI KARET DESA BENTENG HARAPAN KECAMATAN MAJE KABUPATEN KAUR

The purpose of this research is to 1) examine the revenue of rubber farmer households; 2) Analyze the expenditure of rubber farmer households; 3) analyze of income of rubber farmer households; and 4) factor affect the households income of rubber farmers in Benteng Harapan Village, Maje District, Kaur Regency. The study was conducted in October 2019. Methods of Data Analysis using quantative analysis for income of rubber farmers and multiple linear regression Analysis. The research sample of 55 respondents. The results showed that revenue farmer household was IDR 6.026.650/month, household expenditure of IDR 5.084.291/ month, income household was IDR942.359/month. Factors affecting income rubber farmers household are the price of rubber, rubber farming experienced, and side jobs. Farmers are expected to be able to maintain the quality of their latex rubber, that is, not to mix other objects so that it weighs on the scales. In marketing rubber, farmers should always be organized, traders should not try to suppress the buying price of rubber

Forecasting Natural Rubber Price in Malaysia by 2030

Natural rubber (NR) has recently become one of Malaysia's most important economic sectors. Despite, the price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 changes frequently. That is why it is important to develop a NR price forecasting model. Because there was a significant time lag between making output decisions and the actual output of the commodity in the market. The aim of this study is to determine the time series pattern for natural rubber price in Malaysia within 1995 until 2020 and to forecast the natural rubber price in Malaysia for 10 years ahead. The data used is from year 1995 until 2020 that were obtained from Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB). This study also used univariate forecasting like Naïve with Trend, Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Winter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Then, the measurement error is used to determine the best method to forecast the future data. The measurement error that used in this study are Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and The Theil Inequality Coefficient. Result: The natural rubber price in Malaysia showed a trend pattern. Then, ARIMA is used to determine the forecast of natural rubber price for next 10 years since it has the lowest measurement error. Conclusion: There are volatility in the price of natural rubber in Malaysia over the next 10 years.

The Utilization of Juice Morinda citrifolia and Averrhoa bilimbi as a Latex Emulsifier Agent

The area of rubber land in Indonesia currently reaches 3,672,213 ha which can produce 3,229,861 tons/year. The price of rubber in Indonesia is currently cheap because of low-quality latex. The low quality of latex is caused by the large production costs, one of which is the price of latex clotting material which is relatively expensive. Therefore, this studied aims to find a good alternative to latex coagulant but at low cost. Latex clumping material used in this research were noni juice and star fruit. The treatment in this study used noni juice and star fruit juice concentration of 5 ml, 10 ml, 15 ml, and 20 ml, respectively. The results showed the weight of latex with noni emulsifying agents increased by 45.58% while the administration of star fruit juice was not much different, amounting to 45.70%. However, the final weight of latex given by the emulsifying agent in the form of star fruit was higher than Noni with the difference at the highest weight reached 4.23 grams. The fastest latex clumping time at 20 ml star fruit concentration is 1.18 minutes. Based on research results noni juice and star fruit potential as a latex clot.

RESPON PETANI KARET THAILAND, INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, VIETNAM, INDIA, DAN LAOS MENGHADAPI RENDAHNYA HARGA KARET

In several years ago, the natural rubber price shows a negative trend. This condition make a rubber smallholder face difficulties in life. This paper study the efforts made by rubber smallholder to face low rubber prices. Methods in this paper used descriptive analysis with literature studies of the efforts undertaken by rubber smallholder in several rubber producer countries, especially in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India, and Laos to face low rubber price. This study show that the alternative effort undertaken by rubber smallholder to face low rubber price generally was 1) management of cost production by reduced fertilizer and others factor production which no disturbed rubber income; 2) develop other crops by intercropping technique on rubber interrow; 3) looking for side jobs such as construction laborers, public transportation drivers, opening stalls and catching fish; 4) take of loans to maintain the standard of household living; 5) implement a joint marketing system to obtain a better rubber price; 6 continue to tapping as usual and trying to access the government assistance programs that were oriented towards the sustainability of rubber agribusiness; 7) selling or renting out some of the old rubber land that is no longer productive; 8) carry out new plantings with or without government assistance. The alternative strategy that is considered the most relevant in dealing with low rubber prices and supporting the sustainability of natural rubber agribusiness at this time is the intercropping strategy

The role of rubber farming in household dietary diversity in the upper Mekong region, Southwest China

AbstractThe expansion of cash tree crops, such as natural rubber, in the tropical region of South Asia has resulted in an agricultural transformation from subsistence production to market‐oriented production, implicating the local ecological environment, economy, and household welfare. Based on representative household survey data collected from 611 smallholder rubber farmers in the upper Mekong region, Southwest China, this study examines the impacts of rubber farming on the household dietary diversity of smallholders and explores its potential impact channels through farm production diversity and household income. The results show that rubber expansion has significantly improved household income but negatively affected farm production diversity. While rubber cultivation always has significant and positive effects on dietary diversity, it also indirectly impacts on dietary diversity by the two channels, namely farm production diversity and household income. A set of heterogeneous analyses reveals that rubber cultivation contributes more to household dietary diversity for smallholders having relatively low household wealth or living in a village without a market. While the findings confirm the contribution of rubber cultivation to improving household incomes, food security, and nutrition, the potential risks under the background of falling rubber prices cannot be ignored. The findings of this study not only have important policy implications for improving the food security and nutrition of smallholder rubber farmers but also provide a better understanding of the welfare effects of cash tree crop expansion in tropical regions.

The dynamics of rubber production in Malaysia: Potential impacts, challenges and proposed interventions

The rubber industry is one of the largest contributors to Malaysia's GDP and is economically important for the country. However, production has been declining over the last few decades. Similarly, this has also occurred in other crops such as cocoa. The decline in production adversely impacts the livelihood of local rubber smallholder farmers. To understand why this decline in rubber production has occurred, we used a systems thinking approach to analyze the underlying feedback mechanisms controlling rubber production. In addition to secondary data, we conducted focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with various actors and experts in the rubber supply chain across Peninsular Malaysia in order to develop a dynamic hypothesis that explains the decline in rubber production over time. Our analysis shows that feedback loops between global demand and supply, national rubber price, and smallholder farmer income determines rubber production at the local scale. In general, the lack of compliance and participation in the global exports restriction policy, insufficient national price incentives, and the absence of national import regulations have kept rubber prices low, leading to low profitability for smallholder farmers. This has caused smallholder farmers to reduce tapping activities and farm maintenance. Some have left rubber farming altogether. This has reduced rubber plantation area and rubber production. We propose several policy improvements to address the issue: (1) enhance the monitoring of rubber supply in the global market through international collaboration; (2) increase domestic rubber consumption through government projects and incentives and eventually follow this up with strict rubber import regulations; and (3) increase smallholder farmer income through the enhancement of government incentives and R&D, formation of co-operatives, application of crop diversification, and obtaining support from the private sector. The findings of this study are also applicable to other rubber-producing countries due to the similar dynamics that exist in the rubber production system globally. The approach adopted in this study can better facilitate engagement with rubber stakeholders, especially smallholder farmers, and inform the formulation of effective smallholder-oriented policies.

DAMPAK PENINGKATAN KONSUMSI KARET ALAM DOMESTIK TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN PETANI KARET INDONESIA

<div>Rubber is a people's commodity that contributes greatly to the Indonesian economy. However, the price of natural rubber fluctuates with a downward trend, thus affecting state income and the welfare of Indonesian rubber farmers. Therefore, the natural rubber producing countries in the ITRC forum agreed to increase domestic natural rubber consumption in their respective countries as an effort to stabilize the price of rubber in the world. This policy was later referred to as the Demand</div><div>Promotion Scheme (DPS). This study aims to see the impact of the application of DPS as a domestic natural rubber trade policy on the welfare of Indonesian rubber</div><div>farmers. The analysis uses an econometric model in the form of a system of</div><div>simultaneous equations which is estimated by the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS)</div><div>method using the 1992–2017 annual data series. The results of this study indicate that the implementation of policies to increase domestic natural rubber consumption can improve the welfare of Indonesian rubber farmers.</div>

HUBUNGAN VARIABEL PENDAPATAN PETANI ALIH GUNA LAHAN SAWAH KE KARET (Studi Kasus di Desa Nusaraya Kecamatan Belitang III) KABUPATEN OKU TIMUR

<p><em>Analysis of the Correlation between Factors Influencing Farmers' Income to Change the Function of Rice Fields to Rubber in Nusaraya Village, Belitang III District, OKU Timur Regency. The purpose of this study is (1) to identify the process of land conversion to rubber plants. (2) Calculate how much farmers' income after the conversion of rice fields to rubber plants. (3) Analyzing the level of closeness of the income relationship of farmers after transferring the function of paddy fields to rubber trees on factors that affect income. The method used in this research is the case study method, with data analysis using the Spearman Rank Correlation. Based on the results of research that has been done, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) Identification of the process of changing the function of paddy fields to rubber plants in Nusaraya Village, Belitang III District, Ogan Komering Ulu Timur Regency is determined by the rubber price factor which is higher than the price of rice . (2) The average income of farmers who convert rice fields to rubber is higher because of the two commodities being cultivated, namely rice and rubber. (3) Factors that are highly correlated in influencing the income of the conversion of paddy fields to rubber plants, namely factors of income and amount of rubber production, income and area of rubber land, income and expenditure of farmers, amount of rice production and area of paddy land, amount of rubber production and rubber land area, the amount of rubber production and farmer expenditure, rubber land area and farmer expenditure, while the age of farmers and farmer education are very small correlated with farmers' income to change the function of rice fields to rubber plant.</em></p>

Advances in butyl rubber synthesis via cationic polymerization: an overview

AbstractThe global market is anticipated to display considerable growth for synthetic rubber because of superior product properties in comparison to natural rubber. The high volatility in natural rubber prices has been a major driver for the growth of synthetic rubber. Butyl rubber is a type of synthetic rubber mostly used in tyres and tubes, sealants, adhesives, protective clothes, pharmaceutical stoppers and closures, etc. The growing demand for butyl rubber in the automobile, construction and healthcare sectors has attracted researchers to explore various types of cationic co‐initiators. Cationic initiating systems play a vital role in controlling polymer microstructure, molecular weight, unsaturation content, etc. The present review covers numerous developments in the field of cationic copolymerization of isobutylene and isoprene. The review summarizes the chemistry of initiating systems based on boron, aluminium, aluminoxane, zinc, metallocenes and rare earth metals. It also gives brief information about the commercial process (slurry and solution) and structural characterization of butyl rubber. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry

STRATEGI PEMASARAN KARET SISTEM LELANG DALAM UPAYA MENINGKATKAN PEREKONOMIAN PETANI KARET

Ogan Komering Ilir Regency is a natural rubber producing district in South Sumatra Province. Rubber marketing system in the Ogan Komering Ilir through the middleman and auction system. Marketing through the auction system is considered to be better and more profitable for rubber farmers than marketing through middlemen. Where the middleman system often tends to harm farmers, thus hindering the economy of rubber farmers. The purpose of this research is to formulate a rubber marketing strategy through an auction system which is expected to improve the mechanism of the rubber marketing system and ultimately be able to improve the economy of rubber farmers. The approach used in this research is descriptive qualitative, data collection is done by observation and interviews. Hail research shows that it has potential and opportunities as a good place for transactions that are more profitable for farmers. Through the auction system, rubber farmers are interested in being willing and able to produce good quality rubber, so that the selling price of rubber is higher

PENDAPATAN PETANI DARI BUDIDAYA TANAMAN PURIK (Mitragyna sp) DI DESA NANGA MANDAY KECAMATAN BIKA KABUPATEN KAPUAS HULU

Purik (Mitragyna sp), is one of the forestry plants that is currently cultivated and is the livelihood of the community, especially in Nanga Manday Village, Bika District, Kapuas Hulu Regency, when rubber prices dropped and fish catches were uncertain. The purpose of this study to answer how much the level of income, the value of the R / C ratio, Break Ivent Point (BEP) of production and prices as well as the factors that affect the level of community income. The methodology used is observation and structured interviews. Based on data analysis, the community income from Purik cultivation is Rp 10,658 / kg with an R / C ratio of 3.6 (>1) and the value of production BEP of 15.66 kg and the price BEP of Rp. 1,231 / kg. Based on the results of multiple linear regression analysis of income (profit) purik cultivation business as follows: Ŷ = 1.012 - 0.021X1 + 0.000X2 - 0.0004X3 + 0.006X4 - 1.090X5 - 1.107X6 - 0.011D with the results of the analysis determining the R Square number is .986 (98%).Keywords: income, Nanga Manday, purik cultivation

The profitability analysis of rubber plantation in Batang Hari Regency and Sanggau Regency (Case study: Penerokan Village and Semoncol Village)

During 2009-2012 the price of rubber increased sharply, on the contrary during 2012-2018 the price decreased, and the farm price level in 2018 was lower than the average in 2009. The decline in rubber prices had an impact on the income of rubber farming. This study aims to analyze the changes in rubber prices on the performance of rubber farming and rubber farmers’ incomes The main data used is the ICASEPS’ Patanas database for 2009, 2012, and 2018. This study took cases in small-holder farmer in Penerokan Village (Batang Hari Regency, Jambi) and Semoncol Village (Sanggau Regency, West Kalimantan). Data analysis using R/C ratio. The results showed that the average price of rubber during 2009-2012 increased from IDR7,961/kg to IDR12,968/kg or increased by 62.9%, but in 2018 its decreased by an average of 45% to IDR6,875/kg and tended to decrease. Revenue from rubber farming during 2009, 2012 and 2019 in Penerokan was IDR12,974,000 respectively; IDR10,843,000 and IDR7,878,000 with an R/C ratio of 1.67; 1.87 and 1.67. Revenue from rubber farming in Semoncol 2009, 2012 and 2019 was IDR 10,656,000 respectively; IDR15,990,000 and IDR10,950,000 with an R/C ratio of 1.50; 2.00 and 1.29. The R/C ratio of rubber farming in both villages is more than 1, indicating that rubber farming is economically feasible. Household income in both locations still dominated by agricultural activities.

Crude Oil Futures to Manage the Price Risk of Natural Rubber: Empirical Evidence from India

The trading of natural rubber derivatives in the Indian commodity exchanges was banned several times in the past. Hence, in India, the derivatives on natural rubber are not traded actively and regularly. We have examined the possibility of a forecast model and across hedge tool for the natural rubber price by using crude oil futures in India. Results of the Johansen cointegration test proved that there is no cointegration equation in the model; hence, there is no scope to develop long-run models or error, correction models. We have developed a vector autoregressive [VAR(2)] model to forecast the rubber price, and we examined the possibility of a cross hedge for natural rubber further by using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger causality test. We have extended our research to a structural VAR analysis to examine the effect of crude futures and exchange rate shocks on the natural rubber price. Our results showed that there is a short-term relationship between the crude oil futures price, the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Indian rupee, the Malaysian ringgit to the Indian rupee, and the Thai baht to the Indian rupee; and the natural rubber price in India. The effort of policymakers to cause the Indian rupee to appreciate against the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit may increase the natural rubber price in India. Natural rubber traders, growers, and consumers can use crude futures to hedge the price risk. The Indian Rubber Board can suggest the VAR(2) model predict the short-run price for natural rubber.

A review: The development of double row spacing to improve land productivity and income of rubber smallholders

Low prices of rubber has been a serious problem to rubber smallholders in Indonesia. Rubber-based intercropping systems offers a practical solution to this issue and increasing overall productivity of intercrops, for example upland rice and maize. This study reviewed the suitable spatial arrangements in rubber planting to long term impact based intercropping systems. A field experiment was established in a smallholder rubber plantation in Tanah Laut Regency, South Kalimantan with area of 50 ha. Two planting patterns of rubber PB 260 clone were tested: (1) single row planting pattern (SR) by 6 m x 3 m, and (2) double row planting pattern (DR) by 18 m x 2 m x 2.5 m. The experiment showed that girth of rubber trees in the SR system at the first tapping year was slightly larger than in DR system, even though statistically it was not significant. The latex yield per tree of SR and DR systems were similar, however, latex yield per hectare of SR system was higher than DR system due to a higher tree population in SR system. The DR system was technically suitable for long term intercropping, because when rubber tree can reached 8 to 9 years old and light penetration was more than 80% at distance from the rubber row. The total area required for rubber, upland rice and maize grown in monoculture to produce an equivalent of a one hectare of rubber-upland rice-maize intercrop is 1.87. This means the intercropping has an advantage compared to monoculture.

Progress of Rubber Breeding Program to Support Agroforestry System in Indonesia

The use of superior rubber planting materials is one of the most important components of technology to support the cultivation and sustainability of the natural rubber industry. The effect of the genetic components of planting materials to the rubber productivity can reach 60%, and the rest is the influence of agro-climatic conditions. The aim of the rubber plant breeding program is to obtain the new superior rubber clones that have a high latex yielding potential and good agronomic characters. The fluctuations of natural rubber price and climate changes also influence the direction and objectives of the rubber plant breeding program. To deal with the conditions, it is important to provide the rubber agroforestry technology by through intercropping of rubber with various other crops. The article will provide the information about progress of rubber breeding program in Indonesia and it is role in supporting agroforestry system. Several of new superior rubber clones have been released by IRRI, and some of these clones such as IRR 112 and IRR 118 had been planting with rice, corn, and other crops by through rubber agroforestry system. The system was estimated be able to maintain latex yielding potential of clones as well as farmers’ income can be improved.

Patterns and causes of conversion of smallholder rubber plantation to oil palm (case in Batik Nau sub district, Bengkulu Utara Regency)

Batik Nau Subdistrict has the largest rubber plantation in North Bengkulu Regency, namely 3,779 hectares, but much of it has been converted to oil palm plantation. The conversion occurred quite massively, namely 393 hectares or 10.4 percent in 2019. This study aims to determine the patterns and causes of the conversion of smallholder rubber to oil palm in the Batik Nau Subdistrict. The research was conducted in three rubber production center villages in Batik Nau Subdistrict from January to March 2021 through in-depth interviews with 10 key informants. The data extracted relates to the patterns and factors causing the conversion of rubber to oil palm. In addition, secondary data collection and field observations were also carried out to confirm the results of the interviews. The data were processed descriptively. The results showed that there were two conversion patterns, namely direct conversion and gradual conversion. The main causes of conversions are low rubber prices and inefficient use of labor. In developing rubber farming the people must pay attention to the availability of labor in the family.

Rubber Agroforestry Experiments in Jambi at the end of a 25-Year Cycle

The rubber agroforestry experiments in Jambi started with the theory of change that productive clonal rubber could be economically used in low-labour intensity rubber agroforests, allowing selective retention of forest species or planted fruit trees in interrows. At the end of what was expected to be a 25-year production cycle we revisited the farmers (or their next generation), recorded what had happened to the plot and registered farmer plans for a way forward. Qualitatively, the results showed a wide range of directions of actual change. The envisaged plots, with full-grown tapped rubber in a secondary forest setting did occur – but as exception rather than rule. Some plots had early on been converted to oil palm when white root rot disease killed many of the rubber trees. Others were in a gradual transition to oil palm, already interplanted, or depended on natural regeneration of rubber within the plot for the trees currently being tapped. Some plots had been completely destroyed as the land was sold to a local coal-mine developer. Overall tapping frequency was low, as farmgate rubber prices have in recent years been low and farmers had other options (including participating in small-scale gold mining). Farmer experience with the various clones tested led to mixed opinions on which (if any) of the clones introduced were superior to what farmers used in the past (and what still regenerates in the landscape). GT1, a robust clone, was seen as hardly more productive as local germplasm, the PB260 and BPM1 clone were productive, but especially PB260 clone sensitive to white root rot disease. The quality of rubber wood was a concern for some farmers. The most successful intervention, from farmers’ as well as environmental perspective, has probably been the interplanting of meranti (Shorea leprosula) or tembesu (Fagraea fragrans) trees in young rubber stands, with good prospects for generating substantial income.