Preliminary Estimates Research Articles

Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, enero 2024

International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of prepandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand. The Middle East led the recovery by regions in relative terms, being the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while Africa recovered 96% and the Americas 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023. Four subregions: North Africa, Central America (both +5%), Southern Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean (both +1%) exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Preliminary estimates of tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP, the same level as in 2019, driven by both domestic and international travel. Following a strong rebound in 2023, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels in international tourist arrivals. The positive outlook for the sector is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024. Economic and geopolitical challenges continue to pose significant risks to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.

ICare – a self-directed, interactive online program to improve health and wellbeing for people living with upper gastrointestinal or hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers, and their informal carers: the study protocol for a Phase II randomised controlled trial

BackgroundUp to 70% of people diagnosed with upper gastrointestinal (GI) tract or hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) cancers experience substantial reductions in quality of life (QoL), including high distress levels, pain, fatigue, sleep disturbances, weight loss and difficulty swallowing. With few advocacy groups and support systems for adults with upper GI or HPB cancers (i.e. pancreas, liver, stomach, bile duct and oesophageal) and their carers, online supportive care programs may represent an alternate cost-effective mechanism to support this patient group and carers. iCare is a self-directed, interactive, online program that provides information, resources, and psychological packages to patients and their carers from the treatment phase of their condition. The inception and development of iCare has been driven by consumers, advocacy groups, government and health professionals. The aims of this study are to determine the feasibility and acceptability of iCare, examine preliminary efficacy on health-related QoL and carer burden at 3- and 6-months post enrolment, and the potential cost-effectiveness of iCare, from health and societal perspectives, for both patients and carers.Methods and analysisA Phase II randomised controlled trial. Overall, 162 people with newly diagnosed upper GI or HPB cancers and 162 carers will be recruited via the Upper GI Cancer Registry, online advertisements, or hospital clinics. Patients and carers will be randomly allocated (1:1) to the iCare program or usual care. Participant assessments will be at enrolment, 3- and 6-months later. The primary outcomes are i) feasibility, measured by eligibility, recruitment, response and attrition rates, and ii) acceptability, measured by engagement with iCare (frequency of logins, time spent using iCare, and use of features over the intervention period). Secondary outcomes are patient changes in QoL and unmet needs, and carer burden, unmet needs and QoL. Linear mixed models will be fitted to obtain preliminary estimates of efficacy and variability for secondary outcomes. The economic analysis will include a cost-consequences analysis where all outcomes will be compared with costs.DiscussioniCare provides a potential model of supportive care to improve QoL, unmet needs and burden of disease among people living with upper GI or HPB cancers and their carers.Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials RegistryACTRN12623001185651. This protocol reflects Version #1 26 April 2023.

Facilitating the role of quantity surveyors through integration of cyber-physical systems

Purpose Cyber-physical systems (CPS) enable the synergistic integration of virtual models with the physical environment. This integration is gaining recognition for its potential to enhance construction project information management, thereby contributing to improved cost management in construction. Similarly, quantity surveyor (QS) plays a key role in construction projects by estimating and monitoring construction costs. Consequently, this research aims to explore redefining the role of QSs by integrating CPS. Design/methodology/approach The research adopted an interpretivism stance to collect and analyse data. Two rounds of 21 and 19 semi-structured interviews were conducted, with experts selected through heterogeneous purposive sampling. Code-based content analysis was used to analyse the data using NVivo12. MS Visio data visualisation tool was used to present the findings. Findings It is empirically proven the potential of CPS to facilitate nine key roles of QSs in all stages of the RIBA plan of work through the identification of 15 CPS applications and technologies. Nine key roles of QSs that CPS can facilitate were identified as preliminary estimation, measurement and quantification, contract administration, preparation of BOQ, interim valuation and payments, tender and contract documentation, cost planning, cost control and procurement advice. The study explored how adopting CPS technologies can transform traditional quantity surveying practices and enhance their value within the construction industry. Originality/value The findings add to the body of knowledge by redefining the role of QS through the integration of CPS for the first time and then by highlighting the usages of CPS in the construction industry rather than limiting it to a specific sector of the construction industry, as previous studies have done. This research uncovers several other research arenas on CPS as being the very first research to evaluate CPS to facilitate key roles of QSs. The findings can enhance the awareness and the practical implementation of CPS by intervening to form more partnerships among application developers and industry leaders.

Identification of dMMR in metastatic colorectal and non-colorectal cancers in a private Mexican institution.

177 Background: DNA mismatch repair is a process in which normal cells maintain their original genomic information avoiding errors in mismatched nucleotides or base modifications from recombination processes. The failure of this process could drive carcinogenesis due to increased mutation rate as well as high microsatellite instability. It is estimated that the global average prevalence of dMMR/MSI-H across tumor types and stages is approximately 16%, with higher rates reported for early stages. However, the prevalence for colorectal (CRC) and non-colorectal cancers for this biomarker in Mexico has not been reported. Objective:To explore the prevalence of dMMR in metastatic CRC (mCRC) and non-CRC (gastric, esophageal, and endometrial cancer) from a private Mexican institution. Methods: In this retrospective study, the dMMR status of 215 samples were analyzed from a primary database of stored biopsies from patients diagnosed with metastatic CRC, gastric, esophageal, or endometrial cancers between January 2017 and December 2020. 65 records had information about MMR status. Samples were analyzed using a commercial kit to detect dMMR (BioSb). Prevalence of dMMR was stratified by age and gender and expressed as frequencies. Statistical analysis was conducted in SPSS. Results: dMMR was found in 18.5% (N=27) endometrial cancer cases, 12.7% (N=150) of CRC cases, and 8.3% (N=24) of gastric cancer cases. However, it was not detected in any cases of esophageal cancer (N=14). In CRC, we found a higher percentage of incidence in men than in women, 15.6% (n = 14/90) vs. 8.3% (n = 5/60) respectively. By age groups, the highest total percentage (20%) was observed among those 41-50 years old. The age group with the lowest dMMR rate was 31- 40 yo, with 7.7%. All cases of CRC patients over 91 yo (n=3), were pMMR. Conclusions: Even though this data is not representative for the entire Mexican population, it provides preliminary prevalence dMMR estimates for some key cancers. Additional research is needed to give the limited sample sizes available for non-CRC.

Internet-based psychoeducation and support programme for relatives of young people with early psychosis: results of the first German-language intervention.

International clinical guidelines recommend Family Interventions (FIs) especially for families of people at early stages of psychosis. The German S3 treatment guideline for schizophrenia gives FIs the highest level of clinical recommendation. However, some family relatives have limited access to these services due to health system constrains. Digital interventions have emerged as a solution to overcome this hindered access to evidence-based family interventions. The present pilot study evaluates the feasibility and potential efficacy of the first German moderated online psychoeducation and support programme (ePSP) for relatives of people with early psychosis, with the additional purpose to improve accessibility and reduce waiting times. A pre-post study was performed. A brief recruitment period was pre-established (10 weeks) to test potential improvement of regular therapy waiting times in Germany. A total of 25 relatives of people with early psychosis were recruited and received the 12-week moderated online intervention. Assessments were conducted at baseline and at post intervention. Acceptance of the intervention and the user's experience were also evaluated at post intervention. Recruitment, retention rates and qualitative data support the feasibility and acceptability of the ePSP. Significant positive effects of the interventions were found on key therapeutic targets, including both primary outcomes (i.e., perceived stress and beliefs about the illness). Twenty-one participants also completed the open-ended questions of the user experience questionnaire, which yielded three main themes: most important modules, difficulties in using the programme and ways to improve ePSP. These results provide preliminary efficacy estimates for a fully powered RCT to investigate superiority (or equipoise) effects of the ePSP in comparison to the routine face-to-face family therapy groups. This future RCT will also allow further exploration of ePSP to improve access to psychological therapy for relatives of young people with psychosis, also in relation to the new ground-breaking Digital Healthcare Act in Germany.

Preliminary estimate of a Gray Treefrog (<i>Hyla versicolor</i>) population at a protected site in New Brunswick using photo identification and community science

We provide a preliminary population estimate (n = 120, 95% CI 65–722) of (male) Gray Treefrog (Hyla versicolor) at the Hyla Park Nature Preserve, New Brunswick, Canada’s first amphibian conservation site. As proof of concept, we also demonstrate the efficacy of a minimally invasive photographic identification method (PIM) that uses pattern recognition software for estimating the population of a visually cryptic amphibian that is subject to physiological colour change. Finally, we validate the use of PIM data collected by community participants and the opportunity it provides to engage and educate the local community about amphibian conservation.

Baromètre OMT du tourisme mondial et annexe statistique, janvier 2024

International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of prepandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand. The Middle East led the recovery by regions in relative terms, being the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while Africa recovered 96% and the Americas 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023. Four subregions: North Africa, Central America (both +5%), Southern Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean (both +1%) exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Preliminary estimates of tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP, the same level as in 2019, driven by both domestic and international travel. Following a strong rebound in 2023, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels in international tourist arrivals. The positive outlook for the sector is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024. Economic and geopolitical challenges continue to pose significant risks to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.

Time-dependent behavior of reinforcement rock unit anchored by energy-absorbing bolt for large deformation control in tunneling

The energy-absorbing bolt is designed to counteract both burst-prone and squeezing rock conditions in rock excavation. In this paper, the mechanical contribution of energy-absorbing bolts installed systematically around tunnels excavated in rock masses was investigated based on the assumptions of the reinforced rock unit (RRU) model. The time-dependent behavior of rock with a large deformation problem was simulated using a Nishihara model, while that of an energy-absorbing bolt was simplified by a rheological model connecting a Hookean elastic element and a Saint-Venant element in series. The mechanical model of RRU anchored by an energy-absorbing bolt was established by connecting the rock mass model and the energy-absorbing bolt model in a parallel combination. The closed-form solution presented the time-dependent behavior of RRU under an instantaneously applied tension stress and an linearly increasing load, respectively. The results showed the reinforcement could reduce the time-dependent deformation of the reinforced region of tunnels significantly. A preliminary estimate of NPR-bolt reinforcement for large-deformation controls in the Muzhailing tunnel was carried out using the proposed model. The results showed that the NPR cables could have critical effects in controlling the large deformation of the tunnel.

Corrosion Behavior of Nickel–Titanium Continuous-Casted Alloys

Variations in the corrosion behavior of biomedical NiTi alloys in Cl− containing and acidic environments present a problem with their biological implantation. The objective of this research was to evaluate the synergy of the microstructure, the corrosion behavior, and the biocompatibility of novel continuous-cast NiTi alloys and to compare them with commercial NiTi alloys. The two alloys have a practically identical nominal chemical composition, but they differ in production technology. The continuous casting technology involved vacuum induction melting of the basic components and vertical continuous casting, while the commercial NiTi alloy was produced through a process of casting, hot rolling, and forming into square shapes. The microstructure was revealed to determine the surface area and size of grains. The corrosion of a commercial nickel–titanium alloy and one prepared by a novel continuous casting method in acidic and chloride-containing solutions was studied via analytical and electrochemical tests. Localized corrosion characteristics related to oxide properties, when exposed to 9 g L−1 NaCl solution, were examined with focused ion beam analysis and subsequent microchemical analysis of the formed corrosive products. Corrosion potential over time and the oxide film resistance were analyzed using linear polarization measurements. To obtain a preliminary estimate of biocompatibility, human fibroblast cells were used in indirect contact, i.e., alloy conditioning medium. The continuous casting method resulted in a reduction in the average grain size in comparison to the commercial sample and better corrosion stability of the sample in an acidic environment. Also, in a solution of 9 g L−1 NaCl the commercial sample showed high values for the corrosion current density (jcorr = 6 μA cm−2), which indicated low corrosion resistance, while the continuous casting sample possessed much better corrosion stability and lower values for the corrosion current density (jcorr = 0.2 μA cm−2). In line with that, elemental analysis of the corroded surfaces showed higher Cl− ion deposition over the surface layer of the commercial sample, suggesting local oxide breakdown. Moreover, NiTicc reached a value three times higher for polarization resistance (Rp = 270 kΩ cm2) over time in comparison to the commercial sample (Rp~100 kΩ cm2). Biocompatibility evaluation showed that human fibroblast cells exhibited altered metabolic activity. An MTT assay showed that cells’ mitochondrial activity dropped below that of control cells in the presence of both materials’ supernatants.

Optimizing Terrain Classification Methods for the Determination of Bedrock Depth and the Average Shear Wave Velocity of Soil

The advancement of remote sensing has enabled the creation of high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). Topographic features such as slope gradient (SG), local convexity (LC), and surface texture (ST), derived from DEMs, are related to subsurface geological conditions. In South Korea, bedrock depth (Dbedrock) and the average shear wave velocity of soil (VSsoil) serve as metrics for determining the site class, which represents the degree of site amplification in seismic design criteria. These metrics, typically measured through geotechnical and geophysical investigations, require predictive methods for preliminary estimation over large areas. Previous studies developed an automatic terrain classification (AC) scheme using SG, LC, and ST, and subsequent research revealed that terrain classification effectively represents subsurface conditions such as Dbedrcok and average shear wave velocity down to 30 m depth. However, AC intrinsically depends on the regional features of DEMs, dividing regions based on nested means of topographic features (SG, LC, and ST). In this study, we developed two terrain classification methods to determine the thresholds of class divisions, aiming to optimize Dbedrock and VSsoil predictions: Sequentially Optimized Classification (SOC) and Non-Sequentially Optimized Classification (NOC). Through the study of the sensitivity of terrain classification methods, smoothing levels, and threshold levels for terrain class generation, we identified the best classification method by comparing it with the geological and mountainous region distribution. Subsequently, we developed DEM-dependent regression models for each class to enhance the accuracy of predicting Dbedrock and VSsoil. The main findings of this study are: (1) the terrain class map suggested in this study represents the distribution of alluvial plane and mountainous regions well, and (2) the DEM calibration for each class provides increased accuracy of Dbedrock and VSsoil predictions in South Korea. We anticipate that the terrain class map, along with Dbedrock and VSsoil maps, will be effectively utilized in geological interpretations and land-use planning for seismic design.

A pilot time-in-bed restriction intervention behaviorally enhances slow-wave activity in older adults

IntroductionIdentifying intervention methods that target sleep characteristics involved in memory processing is a priority for the field of cognitive aging. Older adults with greater sleep efficiency and non-rapid eye movement slow-wave activity (SWA) (0.5–4 Hz electroencephalographic activity) tend to exhibit better memory and cognitive abilities. Paradoxically, long total sleep times are consistently associated with poorer cognition in older adults. Thus, maximizing sleep efficiency and SWA may be a priority relative to increasing mere total sleep time. As clinical behavioral sleep treatments do not consistently enhance SWA, and propensity for SWA increases with time spent awake, we examined with a proof-of concept pilot intervention whether a greater dose of time-in-bed (TiB) restriction (75% of habitual TiB) would increase both sleep efficiency and SWA in older adults with difficulties staying asleep without impairing memory performance.MethodsParticipants were adults ages 55–80 with diary-reported sleep efficiency < 90% and wake after sleep onset (WASO) >20 min. Sleep diary, actigraphy, polysomnography (PSG), and paired associate memory acquisition and retention were assessed before and after a week-long TiB restriction intervention (n = 30). TiB was restricted to 75% of diary-reported habitual TiB. A comparison group of n = 5 participants repeated assessments while following their usual sleep schedule to obtain preliminary estimates of effect sizes associated with repeated testing.ResultsSubjective and objective sleep measures robustly improved in the TiB restriction group for sleep quality, sleep depth, sleep efficiency and WASO, at the expense of TiB and time spent in N1 and N2 sleep. As hypothesized, SWA increased robustly with TiB restriction across the 0.5–4 Hz range, as well as subjective sleep depth, subjective and objective WASO. Despite increases in sleepiness ratings, no impairments were found in memory acquisition or retention.ConclusionA TiB restriction dose equivalent to 75% of habitual TiB robustly increased sleep continuity and SWA in older adults with sleep maintenance difficulties, without impairing memory performance. These findings may inform long-term behavioral SWA enhancement interventions aimed at improving memory performance and risk for cognitive impairments.

Quantitative Estimation of Secondary Metabolites of Shadanga Paniya Classical Ayurvedic Formulation and Constituent Herbs

Abstract Background: In the present scenario, ayurvedic drugs and their formulations need standardization to understand their pharmacokinetics and to prevent any safety issues. Shadanga Paniya (SP) is a classical ayurvedic formulation composed of six herbs and most of the constituent herbs have been shown the presence of alkaloids, flavonoids, and total phenolic contents (TPC). Materials and Methods: Preliminary qualitative estimations of alkaloids, flavonoids, and TPC in SP formulation and its constituent herbs were done using Dragendroff’s method, sodium hydroxide solution, and ferric chloride solution. The quantitative estimations were done using bromocresol green, aluminum chloride colorimetric method, and Folin–Ciocalteu’s phenol reagent method. Statistical Analysis Used: All the qualitative and quantitative analyses were replicated in three independent assays, and the results were reported as a mean ± standard deviation. Results and Conclusion: The results revealed that constituent herbs of SP formulation have the presence of flavonoids and total phenolic acid, whereas alkaloid was only found in Vetiveria zizanioides herb. The quantitative estimation of alkaloids, total flavonoids, and total phenolic acid contents of SP formulation was found as 86.105 ± 6.4 mgAE/g, 87.8 ± 4.0 mgRE/g, and 105.8 ± 3.8 mgGAE/g, respectively. This is the first report on the phytochemical estimation of SP formulation.

A dispersive estimate of the a0(980) contribution to hadronic light-by-light scattering in (𝑔 − 2)µ

A dispersive implementation of the a0(980) resonance to (𝑔 − 2)µ requires the knowledge of the double-virtual S-wave γ * γ * → πη / KK¯I = 1 am plitudes. To obtain these amplitudes we used a modified coupled-channel Muskhelishvili-Omnès formalism, with the input from the left-hand cuts and the hadronic Omnès function. The latter were obtained using a data-driven N/D method in which the fits were performed to the different sets of experimental data on two-photon fusion processes with πη and KK¯ final states. This yields the preliminary dispersive estimate aμHLbL[a0(980)]resc. = -0.46(2) × 10-11.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

PHASE EQUILIBRIUM IN TWO-COMPONENT SYSTEMS: DIPHENYL – N-GENEICOSAN AND DIPHENYL – N-TRICOSAN

The melting curves of the diphenyl – n-geneucosane and diphenyl – n-tricosane systems were calculated using the Schroeder equation and using the UNIFAC and UNIFAC Dortmund methods. The results obtained by calculation methods showed that both systems are eutectic. The use of a differential scanning microcalorimeter made it possible to experimentally confirm the presence of phase equilibrium in these alloys. Experimentally, for each system, individual substances and compositions within each of the studied systems were studied. Based on the data obtained, phase diagrams were constructed for two systems diphenyl – n-geneucosane and diphenyl – n-tricosane. In each system, at temperatures of 29.94 °C and 40.6 °C, polymorphic transformations are observed for n-geneicosane and n-tricosane, respectively, which coincide with the literature data. The UNIFAC Dortmund method for both systems showed the smallest deviation of the composition of the eutectic alloy from the experimental data at relatively close calculated values of the melting temperature of the eutectic with the UNIFAC method. These methods can be used to preliminary estimate the coordinates of eutectics in organic systems before planning an experiment. Calculations were made of the specific enthalpy of melting, molar values of entropy and enthalpy of melting, volumetric specific enthalpy of melting and density under standard conditions for each eutectic composition. The study of the fusibility of diphenyl – n-heneicosane and diphenyl – n-tricosane systems is important for understanding its physical properties and possibilities of application in various technological processes. Eutectic mixtures can be used as coolants and heat-storing substances. Eutectic melts of diphenyl – n-heneicosane and diphenyl – n-tricosane systems are safe to use.

Joint Improved Fast Independent Component Analysis and Singular Value Decomposition for Fetal Electrocardiogram Extraction.

Combined the improved fast independent component analysis (FastICA) algorithm with the singular value decomposition algorithm, a single-channel fetal electrocardiogram (fECG) extraction method is proposed. First, the improved FastICA algorithm is used to estimate the maternal ECG component from a single-channel abdominal signal of pregnant women using an overrelaxation factor. Then, a preliminary estimate of the fECG signal is obtained by subtracting from the single-channel abdominal signal. Subsequently, the singular value decomposition algorithm is used to denoise the preliminarily estimated fECG signal to obtain a high signal-to-noise ratio. In addition, in the singular value decomposition algorithm for fetal arrhythmia, an improved method for constructing the ECG signal reconstruction matrix is proposed. Finally, the fECG extraction experiments on synthetic abdominal signals and actual abdominal signals (data from 49 abdominal channels sourced from DAISY database and the non-invasive fECG database in PhysioNet) are carried out. The experimental results show that the method in this paper can effectively improve the signal-to-noise ratio and the accuracy of fECG signal extraction, and is suitable for maternal or fetal arrhythmias. Compared with the FastICA algorithm, the signal-to-noise ratio of the fECG signal extracted by the method in this paper is improved by about 5 dB, and the accuracy of fECG extraction in the PhysioNet database can reach 96.54%.

Preliminary thermal-hydraulic deterministic safety analysis of an in-vessel LOCA for the DTT facility

The DTT (Divertor Tokamak Test) facility is a new experimental tokamak under development by an Italian consortium in cooperation with several high-standard European laboratories. The ENEA division FSN-SICNUC is involved in the project for carrying out deterministic safety analysis of postulated accidents. In the first year of activity, it has been analyzed an In-Vessel LOCA (IVLOCA) scenario. The IVLOCA scenario selected is caused by a break in the divertor’s cassette cooling tubes with the consequent release of coolant inside the Vacuum Vessel (VV). The best estimate thermal-hydraulic system code TRACE, developed by USNRC, was selected to conduct the preliminary thermal-hydraulic analysis of this accident. DTT is currently under design, so not all the data are frozen. Therefore, based on some engineering assumptions and scaling considerations from similar facilities, the nodalization of DTT VV was developed using the three-dimensional TRACE component “VESSEL”. Then, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to simulate the break and the consequent water injection in the VV. This was done to compare the system behavior and test different nodalization approaches. Subsequently, the data of the DTT divertor cooling system were used to run additional simulations. The results allow to compare different nodalization approaches and to have a preliminary estimate of the pressure peak and temperature behavior in the VV for an IVLOCA. Finally, a first uncertainty analysis was carried out using the DAKOTA toolkit, coupled with TRACE code in SNAP. Two uncertain input parameters were selected: the rupture area of a cooling divertor tube and the temperature of the divertor coolant. The uncertainty analysis allows having a wider spectrum of system behavior and a preliminary insight on the dispersion of the VV pressure, selected as figure of merit. This paper aims to show the results of this preliminary analysis, characterizing the phenomena that occurred during the selected transient.

The state of the judiciary and access to justice during martial law: today's realities

The article analyses the updated statistics and comprehensive laws adopted in Ukraine in 2023 to introduce the activities of the High Council of Justice, the High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine, and the Public Integrity Council, without which it was impossible to continue the procedure for appointing judges to positions in order to form the judiciary with impartial and honest judges.
 The ongoing judicial crisis in Ukraine is exacerbated by the insufficient number of judges in the Ukrainian judiciary, which affects access to justice
 Since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, 124 premises out of 118 judicial institutions have been damaged, and preliminary estimates suggest that over €47.2 million (UAH 1.88 billion) is needed to restore the operation of courts in these premises.
 To restart the selection and qualification assessment of judges within the newly established High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine with the active participation of the Public Integrity Council by amending the legislation to improve the selection of judges by optimising the stages of the competition, reviewing the duration of mandatory training of judges, adopting clear evaluation criteria and scoring methodology; to restart the selection of judges to fill about 2,000 judicial vacancies and qualification assessment of about 1,500 current judges with the meaningful participation of the Public Integrity Council.
 The authors identify the negative consequences of the judicial crisis: excessive workload of judges; delays in consideration of court cases; untimely court decisions; and violation of access to justice. In order to solve these problems, it is necessary to accelerate the process of staffing the judiciary with integrity judges. The authors conclude that the development of the judicial system requires sufficient material and technical support.

Practical Exploration of Eco-Geological Survey Mapping in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: Framework, Standard and Preliminary Cost Estimation

It is a common responsibility of all countries to protect the ecological environment and promote sustainable development. Eco-geology, which provides a basic guarantee for the rational utilization of natural resources, ecological protection and restoration, has gradually become a new hot spot of geological survey institutions in various countries. Eco-geological survey in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau plays an important role in regional ecological protection and global change research. Setting up workable budgets symbolizes the competence of geological survey organizations in fulfilling their responsibilities, and unreliable cost estimates can cause economic and political complications. The unclear scope definition and scarcity of project information available at early stages make it hard to generate reliable preliminary cost estimates. Hence, based on historical data and the practical experience of scientists who have been engaged in eco-geological survey in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau for a long time, this research aimed to develop a cost estimation model using statistical learning methods for geological survey organizations to forecast preliminary costs during the early stages of an eco-geological survey project to fulfill different cost control and managerial functions. This research makes full use of modern remote sensing technology and reasonably arranges the input of ground survey, drilling, geophysical exploration and other workloads, supplemented by the existing ecological monitoring station data. It comprehensively sorts out the work means and workload of field and office work needed to complete the map work, and it puts forward a consistent index system and preliminary cost calculation framework. On this basis, based on the principle of matching quantity and price, a reasonable budget standard or market price is selected to calculate the budget estimate of a single map sheet, and then, through the regional adjustment coefficient, the budget estimate of a map sheet covering the whole Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is extended and calculated. The budget estimate will provide effective support for the declaration of eco-geological survey projects in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and the calculation of the scale of project funds so as to ensure the smooth development of eco-geological surveying in the region.

Rapid damage assessment caused by the flooding event 2021 in Limburg, Netherlands

The floods in the Netherlands in the summer of 2021 led to severe economic damage and losses in the affected area. A first estimate in September 2021 showed that more than 2,500 houses, more than 5,000 inhabitants and around 600 businesses were affected. Using the Dutch standard Flood Damage and Loss Model (SSM2017), and based on figures from international literature, the total damage in the Netherlands is estimated in the order of € 350 – 600 million. Physical damage to houses and businesses, business interruption, damage to infrastructure and crop losses were the most substantial. The differences in damage to individual structures (residential and commercial) were large. The estimated damage in the affected area is clearly larger than for the Meuse river floods in 1993 and 1995 which occurred in the same region (converted to 2021 prices: around € 200 million and € 125 million, respectively, excluding damage due to business interruption). It is important to note that the largest damages and losses in 2021 occurred the smaller regional rivers, mainly in the Geul floodplain, while in 1993 and 1995 most damage and losses were recorded in the Meuse floodplain.
 This paper aims to improve the preliminary damage estimates made right after the floods in 2021 by comparing them with actual damage reports from insurance companies and information acquired for the implementation of the national Act “Compensation of damage due to disasters” (WTS). We conclude that the value of the damage is about € 400 - 500 million, which is in line with the initial estimate. It is however seen that there is a gap between the assessments of damage by experts and the damage as perceived by citizens and companies.