Accurate Yield Prediction Research Articles

UAV-Based Multispectral Winter Wheat Growth Monitoring with Adaptive Weight Allocation

Comprehensive growth index (CGI) more accurately reflects crop growth conditions than single indicators, which is crucial for precision irrigation, fertilization, and yield prediction. However, many current studies overlook the relationships between different growth parameters and their varying contributions to yield, leading to overlapping information and lower accuracy in monitoring crop growth. Therefore, this study focuses on winter wheat and constructs a comprehensive growth monitoring index (CGIac), based on adaptive weight allocation of growth parameters’ contribution to yield, using data such as leaf area index (LAI), soil plant analysis development (SPAD) values, plant height (PH), biomass (BM), and plant water content (PWC). Using UAV data on vegetation indices, feature selection was performed using the Elastic Net. The growth inversion model was then constructed using machine learning methods, including linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and support vector regression (SVR). Based on the optimal growth inversion model for winter wheat, spatial distribution of wheat growth in the study area is obtained. The findings demonstrated that CGIac outperforms CGIav (constructed using equal weighting) and CGIcv (built using the coefficient of variation) in yield correlation and prediction accuracy. Specifically, the yield correlation of CGIac improved by up to 0.76 compared to individual indices, while yield prediction accuracy increased by up to 23.14%. Among the evaluated models, the RF model achieved the best performance, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.895 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0058. A comparison with wheat orthophotos from the same period confirmed that the inversion results were highly consistent with actual growth conditions in the study area. The proposed method significantly improved the accuracy and applicability of winter wheat growth monitoring, overcoming the limitations of single parameters in growth prediction. Additionally, it provided new technological support and innovative solutions for regional crop monitoring and precision farming operations.

The impact of weather patterns on inter-annual crop yield variability

Inter-annual variations in crop production have significant implications for global food security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability. Existing crop yield prediction models primarily using meteorological variables may not adequately encapsulate the full breadth of weather influences on crop development processes, such as compound or extreme events. Incorporating weather patterns into crop models could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental conditions affecting growth, enabling more accurate and earlier yield predictions.Our study examines 30 distinct UK Met Office weather patterns (MO30) based on mean sea level pressure. We investigate their association with weather conditions that limit winter wheat yield in the UK (1990–2020). Blocked, negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns create the highest risk of temperatures that are below optimal for crop yield. However, the connection between weather patterns and yield is complex, with differing effects at a regional scale and even at which point in the growth cycle they appear. It was found that anticyclonic weather patterns during sowing, emergence, vernalisation, anthesis, and grain filling exhibit a relationship with good crop yields with a Spearman correlation coefficient of up to 0.55 for a single weather pattern (WP3 during vernalisation in South East England), whilst cyclonic patterns can help during the terminal spikelet phenological phase. The strongest positive correlations were during sowing, emergence, and vernalisation, whilst the largest negatives were observed in anthesis and grain filling.The potential of combining weather patterns with existing crop simulation models to produce earlier and more accurate yield predictions is shown. This would enable effective crop management and climate mitigation strategies, critical to strengthening food security. Projected changes in weather pattern occurrences in the late 21st century will likely reduce crop yields. This is due to increased cyclonic weather patterns, which bring warmer, wetter conditions during the wheat's vernalisation stage, followed by warmer, drier conditions during the anthesis and grain-filling phases.

MResGat: Multi-head Residual Dilated Convolution Assisted Gated Unit Framework for Crop Yield Prediction

The importance of predicting crop yields has increased due to growing concerns of surrounding food security. Early forecasting of crop yields holds a pivotal role in avoiding starvations by estimating the food supply available for the expanding global population. Several Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques are involved to develop effective and accurate crop yield prediction model. Nevertheless, existing models faces some limitations such as less accuracy, high error rate because of noisy data, high training time and extracted less effective features for prediction. To overcome these issues, the novel DL methodology is introduced for attaining high accurate crop yield prediction. Initially, the soil, weather and other resources big data are collected from the various agriculture field. In data collection phase, the input data of larger size are stored in the Hadoop platform for the purpose of storing as well as processing the entire data in a distributed manner. The data are pre-processed through the utilization of Missing value imputation and z-score based data normalization. From the pre-processed data, the optimal features are considered using Integrated Correlation Random recursive elimination (InCorRe) approach. Based on the previous soil and weather information, the suitable yield of crops can be predicted using Multi head Residual dilated convolution assisted gated unit (MResGat) model. Finally, the losses of the network model can be optimized using African vulture optimization algorithm (AVO). The proposed method is evaluated using the several performance metrics, which achieved 0.023% of MSE value and 0.036% of MAE values.

Winter Wheat Yield Prediction Based on the ASTGNN Model Coupled with Multi-Source Data

Timely and accurate prediction of winter wheat yields, which is crucial for optimizing production management, maintaining supply–demand balance, and ensuring food security, depends on interactions among numerous factors, such as climate, surface characteristics, and soil quality. Despite the extensive application of deep learning models in this field, few studies have analyzed the effect of the large-scale geospatial characteristics of neighboring regions on crop yields. Therefore, we present an attention-based spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (ASTGNN) model coupled with geospatial characteristics and multi-source data for improved accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation. The datasets used in this study included multiple types of remote sensing, meteorological, soil, crop yield, and planting area data for Anhui, China, from 2005 to 2020. The results showed that multi-source data led to higher prediction performance than single-source data, and enabled accurate prediction of winter wheat yields three months prior to harvest. Furthermore, the ASTGNN model provided better prediction performance than two traditional crop yield prediction models (R2 = 0.70, RMSE = 0.21 t/ha, MAE = 0.17 t/ha). Therefore, ASTGNN enhances the accuracy of crop yield prediction by incorporating geospatial characteristics. This research has implications for improving agricultural production management, promoting the development of digital agriculture, and addressing climate change in agriculture.

Validating the Vegetable Variety Navigator Decision-support Tool Using Recent On-farm Variety Trial Data

Local variety trial data are necessary for informing growers how a specific variety might perform on their farm but there is a growing deficiency in these data, particularly for specialty crops. To address this issue, an online decision-support tool named the Vegetable Variety Navigator (VVN) was developed in 2020 to compile, analyze, and visually communicate publicly available broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica), cucumber (Cucumis sativus), and sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum) variety trial data. To validate the accuracy and predictive potential of the VVN, we conducted 16 on-farm variety trials for broccoli, cucumber, and sweet pepper between 2020 and 2022. Yield of each variety in a trial was compared with the mean of all other varieties in the same trial to calculate a mean relative yield (MRY). The difference between observed relative yield in the field and predicted relative yield from the VVN (ΔMRY) was used to assess the accuracy of three different VVN prediction strategies. Strategies included using data from the following: 1) the single geographically nearest trial, 2) the mean of the three geographically nearest trials, or 3) the mean of all available trial data regardless of location. Compared with random predictions of MRY for each variety (from within a normal distribution of MRY values in the VVN database), the VVN predictions reduced ΔMRY and improved the accuracy of relative yield predictions across varieties by up to 21% in broccoli, 51% in cucumber (depending on strategy), and 51% in sweet pepper. Results confirm the value of the VVN as a decision-support tool for growers facing an ever-increasing number of crop variety options with less variety trial data. Future research and development are needed to improve the accuracy of the VVN by accounting for possible effects of crop types, management, and location on relative yield and quality.

A Deep–Learning Network for Wheat Yield Prediction Combining Weather Forecasts and Remote Sensing Data

Accurately predicting winter wheat yield before harvest could greatly benefit decision-makers when making management decisions. In this study, we utilized weather forecast (WF) data combined with Sentinel-2 data to establish the deep-learning network and achieved an in-season county-scale wheat yield prediction in China’s main wheat-producing areas. We tested a combination of short-term WF data from the China Meteorological Administration to predict in-season yield at different forecast lengths. The results showed that explicitly incorporating WF data can improve the accuracy in crop yield predictions [Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.517 t/ha] compared to using only remote sensing data (RMSE = 0.624 t/ha). After comparing a series of WF data with different time series lengths, we found that adding 25 days of WF data can achieve the highest yield prediction accuracy. Specifically, the highest accuracy (RMSE = 0.496 t/ha) is achieved when predictions are made on Day of The Year (DOY) 215 (40 days before harvest). Our study established a deep-learning model which can be used for early yield prediction at the county level, and we have proved that weather forecast data can also be applied in data-driven deep-learning yield prediction tasks.

Rice yield prediction through drone-derived vegetation indices: A case study in Tamil Nadu, India

Precision farming has been revolutionized by advancements in drone technology and remote sensing, enabling high accuracy in real-time crop monitoring and yield prediction. To explore the potential of drone-based remote sensing for predicting the rice yield by the assessment of vegetation indices were generated and analyzed to identify the most sensitive indices for predicting Laef Area Index (LAI), chlorophyll content, and biomass. The experiment was conducted in two seasons, Kuruvai (July - November 2023) and Navarai (December 2023 - March 2024). In Kuruvai 2023, a positive correlation was observed between vegetation indices, Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI), Modified Chlorophyll and Reflectance Index (MCARI) and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) with ground truth biophysical parameters, while Navarai season Perpendicular Vegetation Index (PVI), Modified Chlorophyll and Reflectance Index (MCARI) and Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) exhibited the highest positive correlation. The multiple linear regression analysis revealed that a combined model incorporating LAI, SPAD chlorophyll, and biomass registered the highest R2 values of 0.792 and 0.800 for the Kuruvai and Navarai seasons. The predicted yield was positively correlated with the real-time yield with R2 values of 0.819 and 0.803 for both seasons. This study underscores the potential of drone-based VIs for precise yield prediction, offering a scalable and non-destructive method to enhance agricultural productivity and support decision-making in precision farming. Future research should focus on refining these models for broader applications across crops and agro-climatic conditions.

Modelling aerodynamic forces and torques of spheroid particles in compressible flows

In the present study, we conduct numerical simulations of compressible flows around spheroid particles, for the purpose of refining empirical formulas for drag force, lift force, and pitching torque acting on them. Through an analysis of approximately a thousand numerical simulation cases spanning a wide range of Mach numbers, Reynolds numbers and particle aspect ratios, we first identify the crucial parameters that are strongly correlated with the forces and torques via Spearman correlation analysis, based on which the empirical formulas for the drag force, lift force and pitching torque coefficients are refined. The novel formulas developed for compressible flows exhibit consistency with their incompressible counterparts at low Mach number limits and, moreover, yield accurate predictions with average relative errors of less than 5%. This underscores their robustness and reliability in predicting aerodynamic loads on spheroidal particles under various flow conditions.

Field scale wheat yield prediction using ensemble machine learning techniques

Wheat is crucial for global food security and plays significant role in achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger). In India, wheat accounts for 33.5 % of total cereal production. Accurate and cost effective yield predictions are essential for maintaining food security. Wheat yield forecasting is influenced by various factors, such as genotype and environmental conditions. Among these, the effect of morpho-physiological traits in the field is important for predicting yield but hasn't been studied much using ensemble machine learning methods. This study aims to bridge this gap by evaluating 29 morpho-physiological traits to predict site specific wheat yield. Big data framework was used to develop and refine several ensemble machine learning models based on field trial datasets. The developed models are optimized to reduce errors and prevent overfitting and underfitting, boosting their predictive precision. Each model's efficiency was evaluated using performance metrics such as mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, R2, and overall accuracy. The ensemble model, which combines random forest (RF) and artificial neural networks (ANN), demonstrated better performance by achieving a mean absolute percentage error of 4.65 %, and R2 value of 98.48 % and 98.18 % accuracy on test data.Our results demonstrate that ensemble models combining RF with support vector regression (SVR) outperformed individual models such as RF, SVR, ANN, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). These findings are a promising step towards future research focused on creating more advanced ensemble methods with finely tuned hyperparameters for improving the accuracy of large-scale wheat yield prediction.

Propose and implement a Rule-Based System to Predict Crop Yield Production

Accurate meteorological forecasting plays a pivotal role in agricultural decision-making, particularly in determining crop yield potential and optimizing agricultural practices. This study investigates the application of data mining techniques in meteorological forecasting to enhance crop yield prediction accuracy Preliminary findings suggest that data mining techniques, including machine learning algorithms, neural networks, and ensemble methods, offer significant potential for improving the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasts for crop yield prediction. In conclusion, this study underscores the potential of data mining techniques in improving meteorological forecasting for crop yield potential assessment.

Crop Yield Prediction and Classification using the Agriculture Resources and Data Mining Techniques

This study investigates the application of data mining techniques in meteorological forecasting to enhance crop yield prediction accuracy Moreover, the integration of meteorological forecasting with agronomic models and geographical information systems (GIS) facilitates site-specific crop management and precision agriculture practices. By combining meteorological data with soil properties, crop phenology, and socio-economic factors, data mining techniques enable the development of predictive models that enhance crop yield potential and optimize resource allocation. By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning algorithms, agricultural stakeholders can make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and enhance productivity in the face of changing climatic conditions and environmental uncertainties.

Improved Winter Wheat Yield Estimation by Combining Remote Sensing Data, Machine Learning, and Phenological Metrics

Accurate yield prediction is essential for global food security and effective agricultural management. Traditional empirical statistical models and crop models face significant limitations, including high computational demands and dependency on high-resolution soil and daily weather data, that restrict their scalability across different temporal and spatial scales. Moreover, the lack of sufficient observational data further hinders the broad application of these methods. In this study, building on the SCYM method, we propose an integrated framework that combines crop models and machine learning techniques to optimize crop yield modeling methods and the selection of vegetation indices. We evaluated three commonly used vegetation indices and three widely applied ML techniques. Additionally, we assessed the impact of combining meteorological and phenological variables on yield estimation accuracy. The results indicated that the green chlorophyll vegetation index (GCVI) outperformed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) in linear models, achieving an R2 of 0.31 and an RMSE of 396 kg/ha. Non-linear ML methods, particularly LightGBM, demonstrated superior performance, with an R2 of 0.42 and RMSE of 365 kg/ha for GCVI. The combination of GCVI with meteorological and phenological data provided the best results, with an R2 of 0.60 and an RMSE of 295 kg/ha. Our proposed framework significantly enhances the accuracy and efficiency of winter wheat yield estimation, supporting more effective agricultural management and policymaking.

Yield estimation from SAR data using patch-based deep learning and machine learning techniques

This study demonstrates how the availability of frequent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations has transformed crop yield prediction, a critical component of food security and agricultural practices. SAR observations along with the climatic variables are integrated into an advanced deep learning technique for predicting crop yield. Capitalizing on the unique advantages of high-resolution SAR images, including consistent acquisition schedule, and not being affected by cloud cover and variations between day and night, this research explores new potential in agriculture. Deep learning due to its ability to discern both spatial and temporal relationships within SAR data, captures the salient features from SAR observations to predict the yield of Michigan’s non-irrigated Corn, Soybean, and Winter Wheat.We employed advanced deep learning and established machine learning techniques including patch-based 3D Convolutional Neural Networks (3D-CNNs), Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and XGBoost to significantly improve the accuracy of yield estimation.Spanning eight years from 2016 to 2023, our analysis underscores the exceptional potential of VH channel of Sentinel-1 SAR data for near accurate yield prediction. Among the methods tested, XGBoost consistently surpassed others in crop yield estimating accuracy, particularly in scenarios with limited reference data. Patch-based 3D-CNNs also demonstrated a remarkable ability to approximate XGBoost’s performance, albeit with a streamlined set of input features. Our study further illuminates the delicate balance required in selecting SAR data resolution, demonstrating the need for careful compromise between reducing noise and preserving crucial data intricacies. Notably, our predictive models showcased formidable precision, predicting yields with a mere 7.5% margin of error a full month prior to harvest. These compelling findings signal the need for continued innovation and integration of deep learning technologies, calling for the enrichment of yield datasets to realize more comprehensive and pinpoint-accurate yield predictions.

Remote Sensing Data Assimilation in Crop Growth Modeling from an Agricultural Perspective: New Insights on Challenges and Prospects

The frequent occurrence of global climate change and natural disasters highlights the importance of precision agricultural monitoring, yield forecasting, and early warning systems. The data assimilation method provides a new possibility to solve the problems of low accuracy of yield prediction, strong dependence on the field, and poor adaptability of the model in traditional agricultural applications. Therefore, this study makes a systematic literature retrieval based on Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and PubMed databases, introduces in detail the assimilation strategies based on many new remote sensing data sources, such as satellite constellation, UAV, ground observation stations, and mobile platforms, and compares and analyzes the progress of assimilation models such as compulsion method, model parameter method, state update method, and Bayesian paradigm method. The results show that: (1) the new remote sensing platform data assimilation shows significant advantages in precision agriculture, especially in emerging satellite constellation remote sensing and UAV data assimilation. (2) SWAP model is the most widely used in simulating crop growth, while Aquacrop, WOFOST, and APSIM models have great potential for application. (3) Sequential assimilation strategy is the most widely used algorithm in the field of agricultural data assimilation, especially the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm, and hierarchical Bayesian assimilation strategy is considered to be a promising method. (4) Leaf area index (LAI) is considered to be the most preferred assimilation variable, and the study of soil moisture (SM) and vegetation index (VIs) has also been strengthened. In addition, the quality, resolution, and applicability of assimilation data sources are the key bottlenecks that affect the application of data assimilation in the development of precision agriculture. In the future, the development of data assimilation models tends to be more refined, diversified, and integrated. To sum up, this study can provide a comprehensive reference for agricultural monitoring, yield prediction, and crop early warning by using the data assimilation model.

Local Field-Scale Winter Wheat Yield Prediction Using VENµS Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning Techniques

Reliable and accurate crop yield prediction at the field scale is critical for meeting the global demand for reliable food sources. In this study, we tested the viability of VENμS satellite data as an alternative to other popular and publicly available multispectral satellite data to predict winter wheat yield and produce a yield prediction map for a field located in southwestern Ontario, Canada, in 2020. Random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR) were the two machine learning techniques employed. Our results indicate that machine learning models paired with vegetation indices (VIs) derived from VENμS imagery can accurately predict winter wheat yield 1~2 months prior to harvest, with the most accurate predictions achieved during the early fruit development stage. While both machine learning approaches were viable, SVR produced the most accurate prediction with an R2 of 0.86 and an RMSE of 0.3925 t/ha using data collected from tillering to the early fruit development stage. NDRE-1, NDRE-2, and REP from various growth stages were ranked among the top seven variables in terms of importance for the prediction. These findings provide valuable insights into using high-resolution satellites as tools for non-destructive yield potential analysis.

From data to harvest: Leveraging ensemble machine learning for enhanced crop yield predictions across Canada amidst climate change

Accurate crop yield predictions are crucial for farmers and policymakers. Despite the widespread use of ensemble machine learning (ML) models in computer science, their application in crop yield prediction remains relatively underexplored. This study, conducted in Canada, aims to assess the potential of five distinct ensemble ML models—Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest (RF)—in predicting crop yields chosen for their ability to manage complex datasets and their strong performance potential. The study integrated various factors, including climate variables, satellite-derived vegetation indices, soil characteristics, and honeybee census data. Data preparation comprised two main steps: first, climate variables were interpolated and averaged for croplands in ArcGIS Pro, along with averaging vegetation indices and soil characteristics. Honeybee census data was also incorporated. Second, the data was organized in Python to create a structured format for models' input. The models' accuracy was assessed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), R-squared, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). XGBoost emerged as the most accurate model, with the lowest MAE (68.70 for canola and 39.47 for soybeans), lowest RMSE (119.48 for canola and 102.39 for soybeans), and highest R-squared values (0.95 for canola and 0.96 for soybeans) on the test dataset. The study also assessed crop yields under various climate change scenarios, finding minimal variations across the scenarios, but significant negative impacts on canola and soybean yields across Canada. Honeybee colonies were identified as the most influential factor on crop yields, contributing 52.34 % to canola and 57.18 % to soybean yields. This research provides detailed crop yield maps of canola and soybeans at the Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCS) level across Canada's agricultural landscape, offering valuable forecasts for localized decision-making. Additionally, it offers a proactive strategy for climate change preparedness, assisting farmers and stakeholders optimise resource allocation and manage risks effectively.

Critical insights into ensemble learning with decision trees for the prediction of biochar yield and higher heating value from pyrolysis of biomass

Pyrolysis is an efficient thermochemical conversion process, but accurate prediction of yield and properties of biochar presents a significant challenge. Three prominent ensemble learning methods, viz. Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) were utilized to develop models to predict yield and higher heating value (HHV) of biochar. Dataset comprising 423 observations from 44 different biomasses was curated from peer-reviewed journals for predicting biochar yield. RF regressor achieved a test R2 of 0.86 for biochar yield, while XGB regressor achieved a test R2 of 0.87 for biochar HHV prediction. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was conducted to assess influence of each feature on the model’s output. Pyrolysis temperature and ash content of biomass were identified as the most influential features for the prediction of both yield and HHV of biochar. The partial dependence plots (PDPs) revealed nonlinear relationships, interpreting how the model formulates its predictions.

A Stacking Ensemble Learning Model Combining a Crop Simulation Model with Machine Learning to Improve the Dry Matter Yield Estimation of Greenhouse Pakchoi

Crop models are instrumental in simulating resource utilization in agriculture, yet their complexity necessitates extensive calibration, which can impact the accuracy of yield predictions. Machine learning shows promise for enhancing yield estimations but relies on vast amounts of training data. This study aims to improve the pakchoi yield prediction accuracy of simulation models. We developed a stacking ensemble learning model that integrates three base models—EU-Rotate_N, Random Forest Regression and Support Vector Regression—with a Multi-layer Perceptron as the meta-model for the pakchoi dry matter yield prediction. To enhance the training dataset and bolster machine learning performance, we employed the EU-Rotate_N model to simulate daily dry matter yields for unsampled data. The test results revealed that the stacking model outperformed each base model. The stacking model achieved an R² value of 0.834, which was approximately 0.1 higher than that of the EU-Rotate_N model. The RMSE and MAE were 0.283 t/ha and 0.196 t/ha, respectively, both approximately 0.6 t/ha lower than those of the EU-Rotate_N model. The performance of the stacking model, developed with the expanded dataset, showed a significant improvement over the model based on the original dataset.

Optimizing Rice Production Forecasting Through Integrating Multiple Linear Regression with Recursive Feature Elimination

Rice is a staple food for most Nigerians, making accurate yield prediction is crucial for food security. This study addresses the limitations of traditional forecasting methods by employing Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) coupled with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to predict rice yield in Adamawa and Cross River states, characterized by distinct agroclimatic conditions. Utilizing climatic data and historical yield records from 1990 to 2022, we trained and evaluated MLR and compared the MLR results with two other machine learning models (XGBoost, and K Nearest Neighbours). RFE-optimized feature selection identified All-sky Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) as a key factor. MLR demonstrated a very stable prediction performance with R² values of 0.90 and 0.92 for Adamawa and Cross River, respectively, after RFE. This research contributes to developing advanced Agro-information systems, supporting informed agricultural decision-making, and enhancing Nigeria's food security.

Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China

Accurate prediction of future rice yield needs the precise estimations of rice yield response to climate change factors, of which the most important one is the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Estimates of CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on rice, however, still had large uncertainties. Therefore, using the rice planting areas in East China as the study area, we firstly compared the rice yields and CFE predicted by four state-of-the-art crop models, and found that the CFE predicted by these models had significant differences. We then quantified the CFE on rice yield using the field-controlled experiment conducted at Danyang site at Jiangsu province. Using CFE measurements from a field experiment as benchmark, we have developed an experiment–model integration approach aiming to reduce this variation. This study thus highlights the large CFE uncertainties of current crop models and provides us with a method to reduce this uncertainty, which is beneficial for the accurate prediction of future global rice yield in the context of climate change.