Accurate Yield Prediction Research Articles

Crop Recommendation System using Machine Learning

Agriculture plays a vital role in India's economy, yet Indian farmers often struggle with selecting the most suitable crops for their specific soil conditions, leading to decreased productivity. Precision agriculture offers a solution by leveraging soil data, crop yield statistics, and site-specific parameters to recommend optimal crops. This project aims to develop An intelligent system designed to assist Indian farmers in making well-informed decisions regarding crop selection, considering factors like the optimal sowing season, geographical location .and soil characteristics. Additionally, the system will provide yield predictions for the recommended crops, enhancing productivity The proposed Crop Recommendation System employs a hybrid model that considers various input parameters to suggest crops tailored to farmers' needs. Accurate yield prediction not only influences national and international economies but also plays a crucial role in food management and security

Boosting enabled efficient machine learning technique for accurate prediction of crop yield towards precision agriculture

Due to the limited availability of natural resources, it is essential that agricultural productivity keep pace with population growth. Despite unfavorable weather circumstances, this project's major objective is to boost production. As a consequence of technological advancements in agriculture, precision farming as a way for enhancing crop yields is gaining appeal and becoming more prevalent. When it comes to predicting future data, machine learning employs a number of methods, including the creation of models and the acquisition of prediction rules based on past data. In this manuscript, we examine various techniques to machine learning, as well as an automated agricultural yield projection model based on selecting the most relevant features. For the purpose of selecting features, the Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix method is utilised. For classification, we make use of the AdaBoost Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) algorithms. The data set that was used in this study is simply a compilation of information about a variety of topics, including yield, pesticide use, rainfall, and average temperature. This data collection consists of 33 characteristics or qualities in total. The crops soya beans, maze, potato, rice, paddy, wheat, and sorghum are included in this data collection. This data collection was made possible through the collaboration of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Data Bank, both of which make their data available to the public. The AdaBoost decision tree has achieved the highest level of accuracy possible when used to anticipate agricultural yield. Both the accuracy rate and the recall rate are quite high at 99 percent.

Statistical sampling of missing environmental variables improves biophysical genomic prediction in wheat.

The integration of genomic prediction with crop growth models enabled the estimation of missing environmental variables which improved the prediction accuracy of grain yield. Since the invention of whole-genome prediction (WGP) more than two decades ago, breeding programmes have established extensive reference populations that are cultivated under diverse environmental conditions. The introduction of the CGM-WGP model, which integrates crop growth models (CGM) with WGP, has expanded the applications of WGP to the prediction of unphenotyped traits in untested environments, including future climates. However, CGMs require multiple seasonal environmental records, unlike WGP, which makes CGM-WGP less accurate when applied to historical reference populations that lack crucial environmental inputs. Here, we investigated the ability of CGM-WGP to approximate missing environmental variables to improve prediction accuracy. Two environmental variables in a wheat CGM, initial soil water content (InitlSoilWCont) and initial nitrate profile, were sampled from different normal distributions separately or jointly in each iteration within the CGM-WGP algorithm. Our results showed that sampling InitlSoilWCont alone gave the best results and improved the prediction accuracy of grain number by 0.07, yield by 0.06 and protein content by 0.03. When using the sampled InitlSoilWCont values as an input for the traditional CGM, the average narrow-sense heritability of the genotype-specific parameters (GSPs) improved by 0.05, with GNSlope, PreAnthRes, and VernSen showing the greatest improvements. Moreover, the root mean square of errors for grain number and yield was reduced by about 7% for CGM and 31% for CGM-WGP when using the sampled InitlSoilWCont values. Our results demonstrate the advantage of sampling missing environmental variables in CGM-WGP to improve prediction accuracy and increase the size of the reference population by enabling the utilisation of historical data that are missing environmental records.

Predicting oil palm yield using a comprehensive agronomy dataset and 17 machine learning and deep learning models

The rising global demand for oil palm emphasizes the importance of accurate oil palm yield predictions. This predictive capability is critical for effective crop management, supply chain optimization, and sustainable farming practices. However, the oil palm sector faces challenges in yield projection, stressing a noteworthy gap in the application and evaluation of modern machine learning and deep learning technologies. Our study addressed this gap by systematically evaluating 17 machine and deep learning models in predicting oil palm yield, incorporating various agronomic parameters, e.g., soil composition, climatic conditions, plant age, and farming techniques. This holistic approach enhances the application of machine and deep learning in agriculture. Using the feature selection technique and a maximum depth of 32 and 1000 estimators, the Extra Trees Regressor exhibited positive performance, i.e., MSE = 860.36 and an R2 = 0.65, and stands out among the 17 models evaluated. Our findings also showed that incorporating a comprehensive agronomic dataset is critical to accurate yield prediction. Hence, this model and approach have the potential to be a robust decision-making tool for agronomists and farmers in the oil palm industry, setting the stage for future innovations in sustainable agriculture practices.

Prediction Models of Growth Characteristics and Yield for Chinese Winter Wheat Based on Machine Learning

In order to eliminate the limitations of traditional winter wheat yield prediction methods, the prediction models based on machine learning are used to improve the accuracy of winter wheat yield prediction. In this study, by collecting a large amount of domestic literature about wheat growth characteristics, the irrigation amount, fertilization amount, soil nutrient status, planting density, maximum leaf area index (LAImax), maximum aboveground dry matter accumulation (Dmax) and yield (Y) were chosen to develop the learning models. Using the data of the irrigation amount, fertilization amount, soil nutrient status and planting density as the training set, the regression prediction models (Gaussian process regression mode, linear regression model, regression tree mode and support vector machine model) were used to train and learn the data of the LAImax, Dmax and Y, respectively. The results show that the Gaussian regression model has the best precision compared to the other models. The coefficients of determination (R2) of the learning results of the Gaussian regression model for the LAImax, Dmax and Y are 0.9, 0.93 and 0.86, and the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.57, 1125.1 and 640.41. Based on the data of the irrigation amount, nitrogen application amount, potassium application amount, phosphorus application amount, organic matter content, total nitrogen content, alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen content, available phosphorus content, available potassium content and planting density, the method proposed in this paper can reliably predict the LAImax, the Dmax and Y of winter wheat. The results also have certain reference significance for the yield prediction of other crops.

Jowar and Wheat Yield Prediction using a Wavelet based Fusion of Landsat and Sentinel Data with Meteorological Parameters

Objectives: The objective of this study is to improve the accuracy of crop yield prediction models, specifically focusing on wheat and jowar crops in Maharashtra during the Rabi season, by integrating Landsat and Sentinel satellite data with meteorological parameters. Methods: The study utilizes Landsat 8 and Sentinel satellite datasets covering Maharashtra State. Atmospheric correction is applied to extract surface properties, followed by wavelet-based fusion to combine the images. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is calculated and combined with meteorological parameters using ensemble learning techniques, including Random Forest and Ada-Boost algorithms. Comparative analysis is conducted against existing models, considering parameters such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Findings: Significant findings reveal that the proposed methodology outperforms existing models, achieving lower MAE, MSE, and RMSE values for wheat and jowar yield predictions. Additionally, our research highlights the superiority of wheat production over jowar in the Rabi season, based on comprehensive analysis of crop yield predictions. Novelty: This study introduces a novel approach that integrates multiple data sources and employs ensemble learning techniques to enhance crop yield prediction accuracy. By combining Landsat and Sentinel satellite data with meteorological parameters, our methodology provides a more comprehensive understanding of crop growth dynamics, leading to more reliable predictions compared to existing methods. Keywords: Satellite imagery, Machine learning, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Fusion, Ensemble learning

In-Season Cotton Yield Prediction with Scale-Aware Convolutional Neural Network Models and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle RGB Imagery.

In the pursuit of sustainable agriculture, efficient water management remains crucial, with growers relying on advanced techniques for informed decision-making. Cotton yield prediction, a critical aspect of agricultural planning, benefits from cutting-edge technologies. However, traditional methods often struggle to capture the nuanced complexities of crop health and growth. This study introduces a novel approach to cotton yield prediction, leveraging the synergy between Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and scale-aware convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The proposed model seeks to harness the spatiotemporal dynamics inherent in high-resolution UAV imagery to improve the accuracy of the cotton yield prediction. The CNN component adeptly extracts spatial features from UAV-derived imagery, capturing intricate details related to crop health and growth, modeling temporal dependencies, and facilitating the recognition of trends and patterns over time. Research experiments were carried out in a cotton field at the USDA-ARS Cropping Systems Research Laboratory (CSRL) in Lubbock, Texas, with three replications evaluating four irrigation treatments (rainfed, full irrigation, percent deficit of full irrigation, and time delay of full irrigation) on cotton yield. The prediction revealed that the proposed CNN regression models outperformed conventional CNN models, such as AlexNet, CNN-3D, CNN-LSTM, ResNet. The proposed CNN model showed state-of-art performance at different image scales, with the R2 exceeding 0.9. At the cotton row level, the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 3.08 pounds per row and 7.76%, respectively. At the cotton grid level, the MAE and MAPE were 0.05 pounds and 10%, respectively. This shows the proposed model's adaptability to the dynamic interplay between spatial and temporal factors that affect cotton yield. The authors conclude that integrating UAV-derived imagery and CNN regression models is a potent strategy for advancing precision agriculture, providing growers with a powerful tool to optimize cultivation practices and enhance overall cotton productivity.

Integrating Crop Modeling and Machine Learning for the Improved Prediction of Dryland Wheat Yield

One of the crucial research areas in agricultural decision-making processes is crop yield prediction. This study leverages the advantages of hybrid models to address the complex interplay of genetic, environmental, and management factors to achieve more accurate crop yield forecasts. Therefore, this study used the data of wheat growth environment, crop management, and historical yield in experimental fields in Anding District, Dingxi City, Gansu Province from 1984 to 2021 to construct eight machine learning models and ensemble models. Furthermore, Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), machine learning (ML), and APSIM combined with machine learning (APSIM-ML) were employed to predict wheat yields in 2012, 2016, and 2021. The results show that the APSIM-ML weighted ensemble prediction model, optimized to minimize the MSE, performed the best. Compared to the optimized ML and APSIM models, the average improvements in the RMSE, RRMSE, and MBE for the test years were 43.54 kg/ha, 3.55%, and 15.54 kg/ha, and 93.96 kg/ha, 7.55%, and 104.21 kg/ha, respectively. At the same time, we found that the dynamic flow of water and nitrogen between the soil and crops had the greatest impact on wheat yield prediction. This study improved the accuracy of dryland wheat yield prediction in Gansu Province and provides technical support for the intelligent production of dryland wheat in the loess hilly area.

Wheat Yield Robust Prediction in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain by Coupling Multi-Source Data with Ensemble Model under Different Irrigation and Extreme Weather Events

The timely and robust prediction of wheat yield is very significant for grain trade and food security. In this study, the yield prediction model was developed by coupling an ensemble model with multi-source data, including vegetation indices (VIs) and meteorological data. The results showed that green chlorophyll vegetation index (GCVI) is the optimal remote sensing (RS) variable for predicting wheat yield compared with other VIs. The accuracy of the adaptive boosting- long short-term memory (AdaBoost-LSTM) ensemble model was higher than the LSTM model. AdaBoost-LSTM coupled with optimal input data had the best performance. The AdaBoost-LSTM model had strong robustness for predicting wheat yield under different irrigation and extreme weather events in general. Additionally, the accuracy of AdaBoost-LSTM for rainfed counties was higher than that for irrigation counties in most years except extreme years. The yield prediction model developed with the characteristic variables of the window from February to April had higher accuracy and smaller data requirements, which was the best prediction window. Therefore, wheat yield can be accurately predicted by the AdaBoost-LSTM model one to two months of lead time before maturity in the HHHP. Overall, the AdaBoost-LSTM model can achieve accurate and robust yield prediction in large-scale regions.

Penerapan Analisis Biomassa Shoot-Root Ratio dalam Memprediksi Hasil pada Genotipe Ercis

The economic and nutritional potential of peas makes them highly promising for development. Accurate yield predictions based on photosynthate allocation are essential for optimizing crop production. This study aimed to utilize shoot-root ratio biomass analysis to predict the yield of different pea genotypes. The research was conducted at the experimental field of the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Brawijaya, located in Jatimulyo, Malang, East Java. The study utilized three pea genotypes (TMG-8-2, BTG-1, and BW-44181-3-1) planted in individual rows. The analysis involved calculating the shoot-root ratio and using simple linear regression to predict the results. The findings indicated that the shoot-root ratio varied over time, with the BW-44181-3-1 genotype displaying the highest ratio and the TMG-8-2 genotype showing the lowest. The shoot-root ratio exhibited the highest increase during the generative phase, peaking during pod maturation. Regarding yield variables, the results of the simple linear regression analysis revealed that the shoot-root ratio significantly influenced the number of pods planted (R2 = 88%), the number of seeds planted (R2 = 78%), and the weight of seeds planted (R2 = 90%) at 70 days after planting (DAP). An increase in the shoot-root ratio served as an indicator of the quantity and weight of seeds planted, as well as the number of pods produced.

White matter biomarker for predicting de novo Parkinson's disease using tract-based spatial statistics: a machine learning-based model.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is an irreversible, chronic degenerative disease of the central nervous system, potentially associated with cerebral white matter (WM) lesions. Investigating the microstructural alterations within the WM in the early stages of PD can help to identify the disease early and enable intervention to reduce the associated serious threats to health. This study selected 227 cases from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database, including 152 de novo PD patients and 75 normal controls (NC). Whole-brain voxel analysis of the WM was performed using the tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) method. The WM regions with statistically significant differences (P<0.05) between the PD and NC groups were identified and used as masks. The mask was applied to each case's fractional anisotropy (FA) image to extract voxel values as feature vectors. Geometric dimensionality reduction was then applied to eliminate redundant values in the feature vectors. Subsequently, the cases were randomly divided into a training group (158 cases, including 103 PD patients and 55 NC) and a test group (69 cases, including 49 PD patients and 20 NC). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm was employed to extract the minimal set of relevant features, then the random forest (RF) algorithm was utilized for classification using 5-fold cross validation. The resulting model was further integrated with clinical factors to create a comprehensive prediction model. In comparison to the NC group, the FA values in PD patients exhibited a statistically significant decrease (P<0.05), indicating the presence of widespread WM lesions across multiple brain regions. Moreover, the PD prediction model, constructed based on these WM lesion regions, yielded prediction accuracy (ACC) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) values of 0.778 and 0.865 in the validation set, and 0.783 and 0.831 in the test set, respectively. Furthermore, the performance of the integrated model showed some improvement, with ACC and AUC values in the test set reaching 0.804 and 0.844, respectively. The quantitative calculation of WM lesion area on FA images using the TBSS method can serve as a neuroimaging biomarker for diagnosing and predicting early PD at the individual level. When integrated with clinical variables, the predictive performance improves.

Agriculture crop yield prediction using inertia based cat swarm optimization

Crop yield prediction is among the most important and main sources of income in the Indian economy. In this paper, the improved cat swarm optimization (ICSO) based recurrent neural network (RNN) model is proposed for crop yield prediction using time series data. The inertia weight parameter is added to position equation that is selected randomly, and a new velocity equation is produced which enhances the searching ability in the best cat area. By using inertia weight, the ICSO enhances performance of feature selection and obtains better convergence in minimum iteration. The RNN is applied to produce direct graph using sequence of data and decides current layer output by involving all other existing calculations. The performance of the model is estimated using coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) on the yield from the years 2011 to 2021 with an annual prediction for 120 records of approximately 8 million nuts. The evaluated result shows that the proposed ICSO-RNN model delivers metrics such as R2, MAE, MSE, and RMSE values of 0.99, 0.77, 0.68, and 0.82 correspondingly, which ensures accurate yield prediction when compared with the existing methods which are hybrid reinforcement learning-random forest (RL-RF) and machine learning (ML) methods.

Crop Prediction and Fertilizer Recommendation Using Regression Algorithms

Abstract: India, a nation with a strong agricultural backbone, relies heavily on the forecast for crop production and agroindustrial products for its economy. The domain of data mining is gaining traction as a valuable tool in the analysis of crop yields. Predicting yields is a crucial aspect of agriculture, as it allows farmers to anticipate their potential harvest. This involves the examination of various relatedfactors such as the pH level, which indicates soil alkalinity. Other important elements include the percentages of essential nutrients like Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), and Potassium (K), as well as the temperature, rainfall, and humidity levels in the region. These data attributes are examined and used to train a range of appropriate machine learning algorithms to create a predictive model. This system aims to provide accurate crop yield predictions and offer users specific recommendations on the type of fertilizer required. The predictions are considering the atmospheric and soil parameters of the territory, with the goal of enhancing crop yield and thereby increasing the farmer’s revenue

Enhancing in-season yield forecast accuracy for film-mulched wheat: A hybrid approach coupling crop model and UAV remote-sensing data by ensemble learning technique

Accurate in-season yield forecasts for field-scale crops are crucial for both farmers and decision-makers. Common methods for yield prediction are limited by the availability of unknown weather data (process-based crop models) and the failure to consider yield formation processes (statistical models based on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images), respectively. Furthermore, previous studies focused only on crops without mulching, yet mulching is an important agronomic approach to increase grain yield in the arid areas of northwest China. We aim to develop a hybrid approach coupling crop model and UAV data through ensemble learning to achieve in-season yield forecasts for film-mulched wheat. A four-year field experiment was constructed (2018–2020 and 2021–2023). We first calibrated AquaCrop using data from 2018 to 2020, and historical weather data were employed to drive AquaCrop for predicting yields in 2021–2023. Next, statistical models were constructed to predict yields based on spectral and textural indices calculated from UAV images. Finally, a hybrid approach coupling the AquaCrop model and remote-sensing data was developed using ensemble learning technique. Quantifying the relative contribution of features used SHapley Additive exPlanations values. The results indicated that AquaCrop yield forecasts exhibited considerable uncertainties (R2: 0.53–0.63; NRMSE: 16.54%–14.83%). The interpretation of yield for remote-sensing data was influenced by background and saturation effects, reaching its highest accuracy at the heading stage (R2 was 0.80, NRMSE was 11.88%). Ensemble learning demonstrated strong performance compared to machine learning algorithms. The coupling model combined the advantages of crop and statistical models by the ensemble learning algorithm, achieving accurate yield predictions more than 40 days before harvest (heading stage) based on AdaBoost regression (R2 was 0.88, NRMSE was 8.40%). The most important forecasting factors affecting yield prediction were the textural indices, followed by the AquaCrop simulated values. Overall, the coupled model showed good performance in predicting the in-season yield of film-mulched wheat, which provided new insights into farm-scale yield prediction. Further validation of the generalizability of the coupled model in different scenarios is required in the future to improve the applicability of the model in actual production practice.

Can machine learning models provide accurate fertilizer recommendations?

Accurate modeling of site-specific crop yield response is key to providing farmers with accurate site-specific economically optimal input rates (EOIRs) recommendations. Many studies have demonstrated that machine learning models can accurately predict yield. These models have also been used to analyze the effect of fertilizer application rates on yield and derive EOIRs. But models with accurate yield prediction can still provide highly inaccurate input application recommendations. This study quantified the uncertainty generated when using machine learning methods to model the effect of fertilizer application on site-specific crop yield response. The study uses real on-farm precision experimental data to evaluate the influence of the choice of machine learning algorithms and covariate selection on yield and EOIR prediction. The crop is winter wheat, and the inputs considered are a slow-release basal fertilizer NPK 25–6–4 and a top-dressed fertilizer NPK 17–0–17. Random forest, XGBoost, support vector regression, and artificial neural network algorithms were trained with 255 sets of covariates derived from combining eight different soil properties. Results indicate that both the predicted EOIRs and associated gained profits are highly sensitive to the choice of machine learning algorithm and covariate selection. The coefficients of variation of EOIRs derived from all possible combinations of covariate selection ranged from 13.3 to 31.5% for basal fertilization and from 14.2 to 30.5% for top-dressing. These findings indicate that while machine learning can be useful for predicting site-specific crop yield levels, it must be used with caution in making fertilizer application rate recommendations.

ESTIMATION OF SUGARCANE YIELD USING MULTI-TEMPORAL SENTINEL 2 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RANDOM FOREST REGRESSION

Abstract. Advancements in remote sensing techniques have greatly enhanced crop monitoring and yield estimation, with spectral vegetation indices (VIs) serving as a key component. Our study investigates the use of Sentinel-2 data, notable for its red-edge bands, in estimating sugarcane yield in Ethiopia's Awash Basin. Utilizing 22 VIs from S2 imagery, our approach combines Random Forest (RF) regression with the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) algorithm to improve the accuracy of sugarcane yield predictions. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the RF-RFE method over traditional RF with full datasets and Stepwise Multiple Regression (SMR). Particularly, VIs focusing on the red-edge spectral bands of S2 - such as NDVIre1n, NDVIre2n, NDVIre3n, NDRE1 and NDRE2 - were crucial in enhancing prediction precision. These indices from the red-edge and NIR narrow bands consistently influenced yield estimations in both the Wonji-Shoa and Metehara estates. The study underscores the critical role of the RFE algorithm in optimal variable selection, reinforcing earlier findings that precise variable choice can substantially boost model accuracy. The enhanced performance of the RF model when paired with the RFE algorithm was evident, emphasizing the importance of variable selection in accurate yield predictions. Employing the Out-of-Bag RMSE (OOB_RMSE) error estimate for evaluation, we observed variations in OOB_RMSE performance with different RF parameters, identifying the ntree value of 500 as optimal for the studied regions. The RF-RFE model’s estimations showed lower errors and higher correlation coefficients, proving its efficacy over a full dataset approach, which faced challenges with traditional VIs' saturation. Our findings align with earlier studies, highlighting the efficiency of S2’s red-edge bands in diverse estimation tasks and a shift towards using freely available broadband images like S2, over hyperspectral imagery, due to reduced data redundancy and processing costs. In conclusion, our findings reveal that RF regression, particularly when integrated with the RFE algorithm, is a powerful tool in remote sensing applications. The S2 imagery is optimal VIs, predominantly from the red-edge bands, exhibit significant potential for sugarcane yield estimations. The impressive results of the RF-RFE method, evident in metrics like MAE, MAPE, RMSE, Mean percentage, and R2, advocate its invaluable role in sugarcane yield prediction, highlighting its potential for optimizing irrigation management strategies and broad-spectrum agricultural planning.

Leveraging Remotely Sensed and Climatic Data for Improved Crop Yield Prediction in the Chi Basin, Thailand

Predictions of crop production in the Chi basin are of major importance for decision support tools in countries such as Thailand, which aims to increase domestic income and global food security by implementing the appropriate policies. This research aims to establish a predictive model for predicting crop production for an internal crop growth season prior to harvest at the province scale for fourteen provinces in Thailand’s Chi basin between 2011 and 2019. We provide approaches for reducing redundant variables and multicollinearity in remotely sensed (RS) and meteorological data to avoid overfitting models using correlation analysis (CA) and the variance inflation factor (VIF). The temperature condition index (TCI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LSTnighttime), and mean temperature (Tmean) were the resulting variables in the prediction model with a p-value &lt; 0.05 and a VIF &lt; 5. The baseline data (2011–2017: June to November) were used to train four regression models, which revealed that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and XGBoost achieved R2 values of 0.95, 0.94, and 0.93, respectively. In addition, the testing dataset (2018–2019) displayed a minimum root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.18 ton/ha for the optimal solution by integrating variables and applying the XGBoost model. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022, the total crop production in the Chi basin region will be 7.88, 7.64, and 7.72 million tons, respectively. The results demonstrated that the proposed model is proficient at greatly improving crop yield prediction accuracy when compared to a conventional regression method and that it may be deployed in different regions to assist farmers and policymakers in making more informed decisions about agricultural practices and resource allocation.

Improving soybean yield prediction by integrating UAV nadir and cross-circling oblique imaging

High-throughput estimation of soybean yield using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery can help improve the efficiency of soybean breeding. Previous studies have mainly focused on the extraction of vegetation indices and texture features from two-dimensional(2D) orthophotos to construct empirical models of yield, lacking spatial structure information of crops. Therefore, UAV cross-circling oblique (CCO) photography combined with SfM-MVS algorithm was used to reconstruct three-dimensional(3D) soybean canopy structure. Then canopy 3D related phenotypic features are extracted and combined with features from RGB nadir and multispectral images to analyze the capability of different modal data fusion on soybean yield prediction. In addition, Shapley value was used to evaluate the importance of features across different machine learning models. Based on the Shapley value, a bagging-stacking ensemble learning framework was developed using Lasso, Random Forest (RF), Ridge Regression (RR), and XGBoost as base learners for yield prediction. The performance of the traditional stacking method was evaluated and compared with weighted average methods such as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Entropy Weighted Average (EWA) as meta-learners in the ensemble framework. The results show that 3D canopy structure of soybean can be obtained from UAV CCO photography. The inclusion of 3D structural features can improve the accuracy of yield estimation. Among different modal data combinations, the highest estimation accuracy was achieved when combining RGB nadir features with CCO 3D features. The performance of the above base learners was improved by 8.8%, 3.5%, 7.1%, and 8.0% respectively when using the Shapley value method. The accuracy of yield prediction applied on independent dataset of year 2023 was further calculated by using the bagging-stacking ensemble learning method. When using BMA as the meta-learner, the best performance is obtained with an R2 of 0.7. Therefore, UAV CCO photography with SfM-MVS algorithm provides a new approach to obtain high-quality point clouds of the crop canopy at low cost. UAV multimodal data combined with ensemble learning models allow accurate estimation of yield prediction in breeding materials of soybeans at the plot scale.

Comparative analysis of different approaches to the Ukrainian residential property market evolution modelling and its forecast for the years 2019–2024

PurposeThis study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that have shaped this market development in Ukraine in recent years.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a comprehensive data set encompassing relevant macroeconomic indicators and historical apartment prices. Multifactor linear regression (MLR) and ridge regression (RR) models are constructed to identify the impact of multiple predictors on apartment prices. Additionally, the ARIMAX model integrates time series analysis and external factors to enhance modelling and forecasting accuracy.FindingsThe investigation reveals that MLR and RR yield accurate predictions by considering a range of influential variables. The hybrid ARIMAX model further enhances predictive performance by fusing external indicators with time series analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of a multidimensional approach in capturing the complexity of housing price dynamics.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the real estate modelling and forecasting literature by providing an analysis of multiple linear regression, RR and ARIMAX models within the specific context of property price prediction in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market. This comprehensive analysis not only offers insights into the performance of these methodologies but also explores their adaptability and robustness in a market characterized by evolving dynamics, including the significant influence of external geopolitical factors.

Effect of high-resolution satellite and UAV imagery plot pixel resolution in wheat crop yield prediction

ABSTRACT Accurate crop performance assessment and yield prediction in plant breeding programmes can aid decision-making to improve productivity and product quality during crop selection and management. Grain yield is a complex trait, which is a function of the genotype-environment interaction. While using digital remote sensing traits to assess crop performance and predict yield, the characteristics of the sensing tools and approaches can influence prediction performance. In this study, two sensing scales, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a ten-band multispectral camera and high-resolution (~0.31 m) WorldView-3 satellite imagery, were used to monitor spring and winter wheat breeding trails in two growing seasons (2020 and 2021). The breeding plots were planted in three different plot sizes (about 1.5 × 5.0 m, 3.0 × 11.0 m, and 4.5 × 11.0 m in spring wheat, and about 1.5 × 3.0 m, 3.0 × 7.3 m, and 4.5 × 7.3 m in winter wheat), with each having 12 varieties and three replications per variety. The spectral and vegetation indices (VI) were extracted from the datasets, and machine learning models for yield prediction (partial least squares regression, least absolute shrinkage selector operator regression, and random forest regression) were evaluated. With multiscale approaches, a moderate to strong correlation of VI data between high-resolution satellite and UAV data (0.42 ≤ r ≤ 0.99, p < 0.01) was found in most cases. The yield prediction accuracies using the extracted data from the high-resolution satellite (6.26 ≤ RMSE% ≤ 25.49; 5.11 ≤ MAE% ≤ 20.95; 0.17 ≤ r ≤ 0.78) and UAV imagery (5.53 ≤ RMSE% ≤ 17.20; 4.28 ≤ MAE% ≤ 14.20; 0.43 ≤ r ≤ 0.92) were also comparable. These findings inform the applications of high-resolution satellite imagery in breeding programmes, considering that the plot size would influence yield prediction accuracies.