Effect of high-resolution satellite and UAV imagery plot pixel resolution in wheat crop yield prediction

Abstract

ABSTRACT Accurate crop performance assessment and yield prediction in plant breeding programmes can aid decision-making to improve productivity and product quality during crop selection and management. Grain yield is a complex trait, which is a function of the genotype-environment interaction. While using digital remote sensing traits to assess crop performance and predict yield, the characteristics of the sensing tools and approaches can influence prediction performance. In this study, two sensing scales, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a ten-band multispectral camera and high-resolution (~0.31 m) WorldView-3 satellite imagery, were used to monitor spring and winter wheat breeding trails in two growing seasons (2020 and 2021). The breeding plots were planted in three different plot sizes (about 1.5 × 5.0 m, 3.0 × 11.0 m, and 4.5 × 11.0 m in spring wheat, and about 1.5 × 3.0 m, 3.0 × 7.3 m, and 4.5 × 7.3 m in winter wheat), with each having 12 varieties and three replications per variety. The spectral and vegetation indices (VI) were extracted from the datasets, and machine learning models for yield prediction (partial least squares regression, least absolute shrinkage selector operator regression, and random forest regression) were evaluated. With multiscale approaches, a moderate to strong correlation of VI data between high-resolution satellite and UAV data (0.42 ≤ r ≤ 0.99, p < 0.01) was found in most cases. The yield prediction accuracies using the extracted data from the high-resolution satellite (6.26 ≤ RMSE% ≤ 25.49; 5.11 ≤ MAE% ≤ 20.95; 0.17 ≤ r ≤ 0.78) and UAV imagery (5.53 ≤ RMSE% ≤ 17.20; 4.28 ≤ MAE% ≤ 14.20; 0.43 ≤ r ≤ 0.92) were also comparable. These findings inform the applications of high-resolution satellite imagery in breeding programmes, considering that the plot size would influence yield prediction accuracies.