Areas Of Potential Habitat Research Articles

Highlighting the plight of threatened lianas: Distribution, dynamics, and potential habitat areas of a critically endangered species

Lianas are a major component of tropical rainforests, contribute to its biodiversity and are beneficial for wildlife and ecosystems functioning. Some tropical lianas are known to be invasive and could slow down tree growth. As a consequence, lianas are often disregarded in conservation programs. Eleutharrhena macrocarpa (Menispermaceae) is a critically endangered liana primarily restricted to the primary rainforests of southern Yunnan. It is used to showcase the status of threatened lianas and highlight their conservation status by providing the number of individuals, distribution, current age structure and future dynamics, and potential habitat areas. From 2019 to 2021, we conducted the first field survey for this species along its distribution range. We drew the current age structure by using base diameter and predicted age structure dynamics by using the static life table. We predicted potential habitat areas under different climate scenarios by using Maxent modeling. We found 105 individuals, distributed in 26 different populations, and most individuals belonged to the I to III age classes. The static life table predicted that most individuals will die after age class III. This may be the result from the reduction of canopy gaps or a natural selection process. 42.3% of populations only had a single individual, and those populations may disappear without conservation efforts. Potential habitat areas are declining under all 3 future climate scenarios and parts of Xishuangbanna prefecture in Yunnan, northwestern Myanmar and northern Laos are relatively stable under those climate scenarios. Hence, we suggest Xishuangbanna national nature reserves as a priority conservation area. This study reflects the imperiled status of E. macrocarpa and shows how field survey, age structure, the static life table, morphological comparisons and Maxent could provide conservation ideas for the estimated 1700 threatened tropical lianas in the world.

Repurposing open‐source data from weather radars to reduce the costs of aerial waterbird surveys

Abstract Aerial counts are the primary means of monitoring waterbird populations. A valid population assessment requires a significant proportion of the population to be surveyed. For broad‐ranging species, this requires costly reconnaissance flights and surveys over large areas of potential habitat. Here, we assess whether free, autonomously collected weather radar reflectivity data can identify waterbird aggregations over broad areas of potential habitat, thereby providing a low‐cost means of directing the timing and location of aerial survey counts. Our study was undertaken over a large flood plain known to be a key seasonal nesting area of the Magpie Goose (Anseranas semipalmata). A standardized aerial survey technique was employed, firstly using reconnaissance flights to determine when the birds were nesting and then 400‐m wide transects 3 km apart over approximately 1100 km, visually counting the geese. Radar reflectivity data from an operational weather radar in Darwin, Australia, 2 weeks prior to and during the aerial survey, were processed to link averaged radar reflectivity to terrestrial habitat at a spatial polar resolution of 250 m × 0.5°. A binary classification approach evaluated the accuracy, precision, sensitivity and specificity of reflectivity data in identifying areas where the aerial surveys recorded geese. Aerial surveys of Magpie Geese are most effective when the geese are nesting, which is usually identified by reconnaissance flights. Here, we show nesting correlated with a decline in radar reflectivity and a concentration of hotspots. By achieving reasonable accuracy and precision (77% and 67%, respectively), the weather radar reflectivity identified high aggregations of Magpie Geese and demonstrated high efficacy when identifying areas where Magpie Geese did not occur (specificity, 94%). We conclude that using weather radar data to guide aerial survey timing would reduce reconnaissance flight needs, and enable aerial surveys to focus on areas with a large proportion of the target waterbird population.

Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century

Stipa purpurea ( S. purpurea ), a dominant herbage resource in alpine steppe, has an important impact on animal husbandry and the maintenance of natural environmental stability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a hot spot of global warming, the TP has been greatly affected by climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we simulated the potential habitat changes of S. purpurea on the TP in the 21st century using 197 distribution records combined with current (2000–2018) and future (2021–2100) climate data. We also analyzed the critical factors influencing habitat distribution and driving habitat change. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performed well, with the area under the curve (AUC) value of training data and test data being 0.845 and 0.722, respectively. Annual precipitation, elevation, and annual average temperature were identified as the most critical environmental factors shaping the potential distribution of S. purpurea , and temperature was identified as the most critical factor driving S. purpurea habitat change. Under the current climate, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea was 55.15 × 10 4 km 2 , mainly distributed in the Eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe, Southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe, and Ngari montane desert. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea showed an overall increasing trend, under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) was 87.37 × 10 4 km 2 and 57.80 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. A comparison of warming scenarios indicated that warming had a positive effect on the distribution of S. purpurea within a certain temperature range, but continued warming would limit distribution ranges. In response to climate warming in the 21st century, potential habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes. These results will provide a reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies on the TP and similar regions . • Species distribution modeling was used to predict the distribution of S. purpurea . • The “BioVars” package was used to calculate 19 bioclimatic variables. • Temperature contributed most to driving habitat redistribution of S. purpurea . • Warming had a positive effect on S. purpurea within a certain range. • Habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes.

Range-wide habitat use of the Harpy Eagle indicates four major tropical forest gaps in the Key Biodiversity Area network

Abstract Quantifying habitat use is important for understanding how animals meet their requirements for survival and provides information for conservation planning. Currently, assessments of range-wide habitat use that delimit species distributions are incomplete for many taxa. The Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a raptor of conservation concern, widely distributed across Neotropical lowland forests, that currently faces threats from habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use penalized logistic regression to identify species-habitat associations and predict habitat suitability based on a new International Union for the Conservation of Nature range metric, termed Area of Habitat. From the species-habitat model, we performed a gap analysis to identify areas of high habitat suitability in regions with limited coverage in the key biodiversity area (KBA) network. Range-wide habitat use indicated that Harpy Eagles prefer areas of 70%–75% evergreen forest cover, low elevation, and high vegetation species richness. Conversely, Harpy Eagles avoid areas of >10% cultivated landcover and mosaic forest, and topographically complex areas. Our species-habitat model identified a large continuous area of potential habitat across the pan-Amazonia region, and a habitat corridor from the Chocó-Darién ecoregion of Colombia running north along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Little habitat was predicted across the Atlantic Forest biome, which is now severely degraded. The current KBA network covered 18% of medium to high Harpy Eagle habitat exceeding a target biodiversity area representation of 10%, based on species range size. Four major areas of high suitability habitat lacking coverage in the KBA network were identified in north and west Colombia, western Guyana, and north-west Brazil. We recommend these multiple gaps of habitat as new KBAs for strengthening the current KBA network. Modeled area of habitat estimates as described here is a useful tool for large-scale conservation planning and can be readily applied to many taxa.

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios.

Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The Current highly suitable habitats were found in the Northeast Jiangxi, Eastern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the temperature factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. Mean Diurnal Range (Bio2), Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6), Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. In the next four periods, the suitable areas all migrated southward. Except for the RCP2.6-2070s, the highly suitable areas in the other three periods showed varying degrees of shrinkage. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis.

Creating past habitat maps to quantify local extirpation of Australian threatened birds

Habitat loss is driving the extirpation of fauna across Earth. Many species are now absent from vast areas where they once occurred in inhabited continents, yet we do not have a good understanding of the extent to which different species have been locally extirpated, nor the degree to which range contractions and habitat loss has contributed to this local extirpation. Here, for the first time, we use a combination of scientific literature, historical sources, spatial data, and expert elicitation to map the past extent of potential habitats, and changes thereto, of 72 of Australia’s most imperiled terrestrial birds. By comparing the area of potential habitat within the past and current ranges of these taxa, we quantify the extent over which each of Australia’s threatened terrestrial birds have likely been extirpated and assess the amount and configuration of potential habitat that remains. Our results show that since 1750 (before European colonization), at least one extant taxon of threatened bird has disappeared from over 530 million hectares (69%) of Australia, through both range contractions and loss of potentially suitable habitat (noting these are not mutually exclusive phenomena). Ten taxa (14%) have likely been extirpated from >99% of their past potential habitat. For 56 taxa (78%), remaining habitat within their current potential habitats has become fragmented. This research paints a sobering picture of the extent of local extirpation of threatened birds from much of Australia over a 250 years time period. By mapping and quantifying this loss, these findings will help refine scientific understanding about the impact of habitat removal and other pervasive threats that are driving this observed extirpation.

A flagship species-based approach to efficient, cost-effective biodiversity conservation in the Qinling Mountains, China

Prioritizing threatened species protection has been proposed as an efficient response to the global biodiversity crisis. We used in-situ conservation data to predict the potential habitat area of four flagship species: the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxella quinlingensis), takin (Budorcas taxicolor bedfordi), and crested ibis (Nipponia nippon). We then designed systematic conservation planning schemes for various scenarios given species habitat preferences and anthropogenic activities and conducted a cost-effectiveness assessment. Broadly, the geographical distributions of suitable habitats for giant pandas, golden monkeys, and takins exhibited high spatial congruence (correlation coefficients of 0.59–0.90), and areas of high congruence were concentrated in the northern portion of the Qinling Mountains at high elevation (>1500 m). By contrast, the crested ibis was negatively correlated in space with its sympatric species (−0.47 to −0.29). Crested ibis habitats were clustered in the southern portion of the region at low elevation (<1500 m). A hypothetical conservation priority area (CPA) based on the giant panda, golden monkey, and takin included 39.64% of the Qinling Mountains and 100%, 99.99%, 99.59%, and 7.84% of the suitable habitats for giant pandas, golden monkeys, takins, and crested ibises, respectively. The same area included 99.07%, 70.87%, and 39.96% of the highly important areas for the ecosystem services of biodiversity conservation, water supply, and soil retention, respectively, and only 4.62%, 16.83%, and 13.4% of the area were associated with high-density residential area, impervious surfaces, and cropland, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that a CPA approach based on the specialist species could result in effective, low-cost biodiversity conservation in the Qinling Mountains. However, we note that existing protected areas account for only 26.52% of the CPA. We recommend that the main area of the proposed Qinling National Park should be based on the CPA developed here.

Modeling the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the rangeland species Gymnocarpus decander Forssk (case study: Arid region of southeastern Iran).

The phenomenon of climate change is the biggest environmental challenge in the world. Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution, and climate change will affect the species' abilities to occupy geographic regions. In this study which was conducted in May of 2019, spatio-temporal changes in potential habitats of Gymnocarpus decander were assessed using the MRI-CGCM3 climate change model for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the near future (2041-2061) and far future (2061-2080) periods for this purpose, climatic variables of 24 synoptic stations across a case study, bio-climatic data and vegetation cover maps of G. decander were used. First, using the factor analysis process, the dimensions of the station-observed climatic variables were reduced to five factors with a total variance of 88.3%. Then, the region was divided into five homogeneous climatic regions using partitional clustering analysis. In this study by using the logistic regression modeling technique, the probability of the presence of the desired species for two groups of independent variables including climatic factors and bioclimatic variables in each of the groups was modeled. The results showed that the best models for determining the potential habitats of G. decander are logistic regression models in groups with independent bioclimatic variables. According to the results obtained from both scenarios, the habitats of G. decander species will decrease in the future. In the most optimistic case, about 8% of G. decander habitats will be lost by 2060 and about 12% by 2080. According to modeling results, currently, 48.2% total area of the region under study has a high potential for the presence of G. decander. Also, results indicate that region number 4 in this study with an altitude range of about 800-1250m, 16°C average temperature in the growing season and annual precipitation around 150-170mm is the major habitat for G. decander. According to climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area of potential habitats of G. decander will decrease to 40% in the near future and 36.4% in the far future; and according to climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of potential habitats of G. decander will decrease to 23.9% in the near future and 32.5% in the far future. In the far future, because of the increase in total precipitation, some of the lost potential habitats during the near future will be suitable again for G. decander. Due to its stability in harsh environmental conditions, G. decander appears as a type-forming species in a wide range of natural habitats in the study area and is therefore important in terms of soil protection and forage production.

A prediction of suitable habitat mapping of Pinus roxburghii sarg. using maxent modeling

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of species is essential concerning various purposes in protection and conservation. The present study focused on predicting the distribution of Pinus roxburghii Sarg. (chir pine) in Uttarakhand Himalayas using the MaxEnt model. The model produced AUC curve with significant value of 0.882 (± 0.023). The study results showed that 426200 ha (5.91%) cover highly potential habitat area for chir pine. Whereas 833900 ha (11.56%), 1019200 ha (14.13%) and 4936000 ha (68.41%) cover good potential, moderately potential and least potential habitat areas, respectively. Based on the jacknife test, it was observed that temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of seasonality (bio15) and precipitation of driest month (bio14) are the significant contributors to the occurrence of chir pine in Uttarakhand Himalayas. This study exemplifies the usefulness of the prediction model of species distribution and offers a more effective way to manage chir pine forest by all means, which is beneficial for both the wildlife and human beings for future prospects.

Natal Dispersal of Aplomado Falcons in Chihuahua, Mexico

The persistence of a species throughout its geographic range requires dispersal among its populations. The study of dispersal is particularly relevant for species whose geographic range has contracted, such as the endangered Northern Aplomado Falcon (Falco femoralis septentrionalis). We used Argos 5-g PTT-100 satellite transmitters to determine the movements of two wild Chihuahuan Desert Aplomado Falcons (one female and one male) from fledging to breeding (male), or transmitter failure (female), at 1062 d and 439 d of age, respectively. Both falcons dispersed from their natal territories 2–3 mo after fledging. These falcons then wandered between activity centers near historic breeding territories and some territories recently converted to farmlands. These two falcons also explored areas outside known breeding areas via some long-distance movements to areas of potential breeding habitat being converted to farmland. In 2 yr, movements of the male covered 7412 km2. This falcon nested unsuccessfully with an unbanded female in a vacant breeding territory 15 km from his natal site. His nesting attempt the following year yielded two fledglings. While a breeding bird, the male falcon had a home range of 200 km2. For 17 mo, the female falcon wandered through an area of 12,136 km2. The farthest distance she traveled from her nest site prior to transmitter failure was 154 km.

Habitat changes in the most important stopover sites for the endangered red-crowned crane in China: a large-scale study.

The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is an endangered bird species that has been listed as one of the Class I National Key Protected Wild Animals of China. This study analyzed the habitat changes in the two most important stopover sites for red-crowned crane (Liao River Estuary and Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserves) from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that the landscape patterns of the important stopover sites of red-crowned crane changed obviously and the potential suitable habitat area (tidal flats and marshland) for the red-crowned crane decreased by 183.3 km2, while the area of human activities (including aquaculture waterbodies, farmland and artificial facilities) increased by 140.3 km2. Landscape fragmentation intensified, which could has negative impacts on the survival of the red-crowned crane during migration. A comparative study confirmed that the reduction in marshlands and increasing landscape fragmentation caused by human activities were the main threats in the Liao River Estuary National Nature Reserve, while human activities and natural factors (such as channel flow, rainfall, and sediment discharge) were the jointly driving factors for the reduction in suitable habitats for red-crowned cranes in the Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve. We suggest there are some loopholes in the management of the two nature reserves, which need to be strengthened urgently in China.

Continent-wide modelling of potential habitats and connectivity for the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Europe

Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) once inhabited almost the whole of the European continent. After facing nearly complete extinction about a century ago, they now form a more or less connected metapopulation with eleven broad-scale populations and numerous isolated habitat patches throughout Europe. Increasing public interest and a favourable legislative status by the EU give rise to hope for the return of the felide to parts of Central and Western Europe, where it is currently absent. In this context, a solid understanding of the overall suitability of the European landscape for a well-connected lynx population is crucial. Therefore, this work is looking into the current situation as well as potential habitats, ease of movement between those habitats, and potential future distribution, with the main focus on broad-scale spatial patterns. In addition to existing populations, eight habitat clusters were identified across Europe, using a modelling approach, rooted in a rule-based assessment accompanied by least-cost path identification, generating possible movement corridors. Key findings include large areas of potential habitat, yet overall low connectivity, with lynx movement restricted by a lack of forest cover as well as human land use, including mainly linear barriers like highways and dense road networks. This situation provides a number of challenges and opportunities for national and international conservation: The results clearly indicate that for a recolonisation of many parts of the European landscape reintroduction measures are indispensable in many parts of Europe. They also offer a first step towards a general understanding of how large carnivores like the Eurasian lynx might exist within a landscape increasingly shaped by anthropogenic actions and land use.

Spatio-temporal variation in potential habitats for rare and endangered plants and habitat conservation based on the maximum entropy model

Rare and endangered plants (REPs) act as key indicators for species habitat priorities, and can thus be critical in global biodiversity protection work. Human activities and climate change pose great threats to REPs, so protection should be a top priority. In this study, we used the maximum entropy model (Maxent) to identify current and future (2050) potential habitats of REPs in the Xishuangbanna tropical area of China. We compared potential habitats with existing protected areas (PAs) in gap analysis, and used a transfer matrix to quantify changes in potential habitats. By comparing the potential distribution obtained with existing land use and land cover, we analyzed the impact of human-dominated land use changes on potential habitats of REPs and identified the main habitat patch types of REPs. The results showed that the current potential habitat area of hotspots is 2989.85 km2, which will be reduced to 247.93 km2 by 2050, accounting for 15.60% and 1.29% of the total research area, respectively. Analysis of land use and land cover showed that rubber plantation was the human-dominated land use posing the greatest threat to potential habitats of REPs, occupying 23.40% and 21.62% of current and future potential habitats, respectively. Monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest was identified as the main habitat patch type for REPs in Xishuangbanna and occupied the highest proportion of potential habitat area. Gap analysis showed that only 35.85% of habitat hotspots are currently included in existing PAs and that this will decrease to 32.26% by 2050. This emphasizes the importance of protecting current and future potential habitats of REPs in a dynamic conservation approach that can adapt to changes in future climate and human activities.

Assessment of future potential carbon sequestration and water consumption in the construction area of the Three-North Shelterbelt Programme in China

In the background of global warming, the carbon stock of afforestation is increasingly important. However, afforestation may consume large amounts of water, putting pressure on regional water resources. How to balance the carbon stock and water consumption of afforestation is a vital problem throughout the world. The Three-North Shelterbelt may be a vital carbon pool in the future while consuming a large amount of water. Therefore, it is urgent to predict and evaluate the future carbon stock potential and water consumption of the Three-North Shelterbelt. Indicator system assessment and MaxEnt are used to predict the potential forest habitat in the construction area of the Three-North Shelterbelt program. The results show that the area of the potential forest habitat is 0.58 million km² in the indicator system assessment. The potential forest habitat area totals 2.22 million km² in the MaxEnt results, including a poorly suitable habitat with an area of 1.35 million km². Scenario-Ⅰ is the hypothetical forest structure based on indicator system assessment, and scenarios-Ⅱ and scenarios-Ⅲ are based on the suitability level of MaxEnt model results. the potential carbon stock in scenario-Ⅰ is 0.71 billion Mg, and its potential water consumption in the forest growing season is 261.36 billion m³. The potential carbon stock in scenario-Ⅱ and scenario-Ⅲ is 3.54 billion Mg and 1.19 billion Mg, and the potential water consumption is 625.83 billion m³ and 631.28 billion m³, respectively. There is a strong correlation between carbon stock and water consumption, with a correlation coefficient of more than 0.718. Three-North Shelterbelt construction may bring huge carbon sink benefits, but it may also bring huge pressure to local water security.

Priority areas identified through spatial habitat suitability index and network analysis: Wild boar populations as proxies for tigers in and around the Hupingshan and Houhe National Nature Reserves

The decline and fragmentation of habitats areas are two main factors that lead to the reduction of biodiversity in landscape ecosystems. As a kind of large carnivores, South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) is one of the most endangered tiger subspecies and considered to be extinct in the wild. The Chinese government has intended to release a certain number of tigers into two of their historically habitats areas, Hupingshan–Houhe national nature reserves (NNR) in central–south China that provides suitable habitats for P. tigris. Because wild boar (Sus scrofa) is a prey of P. tigris, spatially characterizing the populations of the prey and its habitats is critical for the success of habituating the tigers to the areas. Although there has been effort made to protect the habitats of wild boar, there have been no report that deal with investigation and analysis of the habitat suitability and potential for wild boar, especially in terms of landscape connectivity. Here we present the novel integration of the habitat suitability index (HSI) and graph–based network to identify the priority areas for wild boar dispersal in and around the NNR. In addition, a novel method to identify the proper connectivity distance to avoid excessive connectivity when the field data are essentially non-existent. Results showed that in summer and winter, the potential habitat areas were 6848–10,245 and 5984–10,152 km2, respectively. The total area of the priority patches was 1590 km2, approximately occupying 16% of the suitable habitat area. Our study indicated that the novel integration of the HSI and network analysis led to an effective approach to spatially characterize priority patches to support decision-making for landscape planning. The results shown here also have implications for future efforts for habituating large carnivores into their historical habitat regions.

Multi-scale path-level analysis of jaguar habitat use in the Pantanal ecosystem

Jaguars (Panthera onca), like other apex predators, are highly susceptible to habitat loss and fragmentation given their low demographic potential and large habitat area requirements. Across their range, the Pantanal is considered critical for the jaguar's long-term conservation. Here we provide the first multi-scale path selection function model for jaguars, and the first empirically-based movement model covering the entire Pantanal ecosystem. Out of eight investigated variables, six were related to jaguar habitat use in the Pantanal: terrain roughness, human population density, grassland, percentage of tree cover, flooded habitats and shrubland. The results of scale optimization revealed that jaguars responded primarily to landscape variables at broad scales (32 km) of habitat availability, with only one variable (grassland) influencing jaguar path selection at a finer scale (4 km). Jaguar habitat use was positively associated with flooded habitats and densely forested areas and negatively associated with grassland, terrain roughness, and human population density, with the latter having the strongest negative effect on jaguar movement. The prediction map suggested that only 9.3% of the total suitable jaguar habitat in Pantanal is protected by Conservation Units. Among the most suitable areas, the largest continuous habitats were located in the northwestern portions of the Pantanal, which corresponds to the interfluvial areas between Corixo Grande and Cuiaba rivers. Our results suggested that the implementation of already proposed North Pantanal Conservation Unit Mosaic in this area would be highly valuable for jaguar conservation. This study provides a foundation for future research to delineate and prioritize core areas and corridors for jaguars in the region.

Predicting habitat suitability of filter-feeder communities in a shallow marine environment, New Zealand

The distribution of benthic ecosystems, dominated by filter-feeding communities, is highly influenced by the seabed geomorphology. However, the spatial variation in settlement of these species is also affected by near-bottom currents and any changes in light, nutrient concentration and food quality often associated with increases of suspended sediment concentrations within the water column. Detailed predictions of the geographic distribution of filter-feeder species and a deeper understanding of the physical processes influencing their distribution patterns is key for effective management and conservation. To date, predictive distribution modelling has been derived essentially from geomorphological parameters, mainly using spatially limited observations. In this study, seabed mapping, oceanographic modelling, hydrographic records and biological observations are integrated to provide high-resolution prediction of filter-feeder habitat distribution within Queen Charlotte Sound/Tōtaranui and Tory Channel/Kura Te Au, South Island of New Zealand. The aim is to evaluate potential suitable habitat areas for filter-feeders to inform where habitat restoration management should focus efforts to recover communities such as the horse mussel (Atrina zelandica) or the green-lipped mussel (Perna canaliculus), both of which have high economic impact in New Zealand. To accomplish this, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) predictive modelling was used to produce Habitat Suitability (HS) maps, using geomorphological parameters and seafloor classification information. Final HS maps also incorporated oceanographic and sediment dynamic information, showing that filter-feeder habitat distribution is highly influenced by the hydrodynamics and sedimentary processes apart from the seafloor geomorphology. Filter-feeder communities inhabit quiescent areas, limited by depth, slope and sediment type; and coincide with regions presenting low near-bottom currents and low turbidity levels. Additionally, the obtained results reveal the effects of the coastal settlements and major marine traffic routes, limiting the suitable habitats to areas with less human impact. This study demonstrates that a multidisciplinary approach is crucial to better predict the spatial distribution of benthic communities, which is key to improve benthic habitat restoration and recovery assessments.

Population survey of Milicia excelsa, Pouteria adolfi-fridercii, Antiaris toxicaria and Prunus africana in south and south-western Ethiopia: implications for domesticating and establishing Seed Production Areas

The population dynamics and genetic qualities of stem height and dbh of the populations of Milicia excelsa, Pouteria adolfi-fridercii, Antiaris toxicaria and Prunus africana were assessed and studied in 14 forest ecosystems in south and south-western Ethiopia. A systematic random quadrat sampling technique was employed to identify potential habitat area for selected timber species in south and south-western Ethiopia. So, a total of 10 parallel transect lines were set out across each forest habitat. Milicia excelsa was assessed in four forest ecosystems; Bebeka -Duduka natural forest (45 tree stem ha-1) and Yayu coffee mixed forest (40 tree stem ha-1) appeared to have relatively denser population of M. excelsa compared to the other pilot forests. Similarly, statistically larger stem height (m) is observed in Bebeka-Duduka natural forest (x̅=29.5, SD=4.2) and larger dbh size (cm) in Bebeka 1 coffee mixed forest (x̅=48.5, SD=25.2) at p&lt;0.05. Hence, Bebeka-Duduka natural forest and Bebeka 1 coffee mixed forests are identified for in-situ SPA establishment project of the target species. Pouteria adolfi-fridercii was assessed in eight forest ecosystems; Masha-Gora shewi forest appeared to have dense population of P. adolfi-fridercii (150 tree stem ha-1) followed by Bebeka-Kebereta (80 tree stem ha-1) as compared to the remaining pilot forests. However, statistically larger stem height (m) is scored in Bebeka 2 natural forest (x̅=30.6, SD=2.98) and Bebeka-kebereta forest (x̅=30.0, SD=4.4) and larger dbh size (cm) in Bebeka 2 natural forest (x̅=96.5, SD=19.9) at p&lt;0.05. So, Bebeka 2 natural forest and Bebeka-kebereta forest are identified for SPA establishment project of the target species. Antiaris toxicaria was assessed in two forest ecosystems where both forest habitats appeared to have the same density of Antiaris toxicaria in hectare. Moreover, analyses of mean stem height (cm) of Bebeka 1 forest (x̅=21.4, SD=5.2) and Bebeka-kebereta forest (x̅=22.4, SD=2.7), and mean dbh size (cm) of Bebeka 1 forest (x̅=48, SD=16.4) and Bebeka-kebereta forest (x̅=48, SD=8.2) appeared to have not significantly different at p&lt;0.05. Prunus africana was assessed in five forest ecosystems; Masha-Gora shewi forest appeared to have dense population of Prunus africana (150 tree stem ha-1) followed by Kaho-shemeta forest (130 tree stem ha-1) as compared to the remaining pilot forests. However, statistically larger stem height (m) is scored in Kaho-shemeta natural forest (x̅=31, SD=7.6) and larger dbh (cm) in Masha-Gora shewi forest (x̅=64.7, SD=28.2) at p&lt;0.05. As the result, Kaho-shemeta natural forest and Bonga-Teja-adela forest are identified for establishment of seed production area of the target species in-situ. Hence, while implementing the project of domestication and seed production area establishment in south and south-western Ethiopia, in-situ and ex-situ areas must be selected and delineated in accordance with this preliminary information of the population dynamics and genetic qualities of stem height and diameter at breast height. The survey data generated in this study would bridge the research gap in relation to the population status of the target tree species in the designated area.

Effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the threatened relict Dipentodon sinicus of subtropical forests in East Asia: Recommendations for management and conservation

Dipentodon sinicus Dunn. (Dipentodonaceae) is a rare and threatened relict plant species usually found co-dominating with other relict plants in subtropical forest patches in highly fragmented habitats of southwestern China, northern Vietnam and northeastern Myanmar of East Asia. To date, its management and conservation strategies in the light of climate change have not been explored. We evaluated effects of climate change on the distribution of climatically suitable areas of D. sinicus as found prevailing during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene and the present time, and predicted the distribution of climatically suitable habitats in 2070 throughout East Asia. The results as derived from ecological niche modeling (ENM) show the current distribution to be limited to the prehistoric (the mid-Holocene and LGM) refugia, and to indicate decreasing probability of presence and a reducing range of distribution for 2070. In addition, the suitable areas predicted with high probability (0.5–1) only account for on average 9.8% of the total area of potential habitats (threshold‒1) among the models for the year 2070, thereby indicating that D. sinicus is highly vulnerable. Under all the future scenarios for the year 2070, 69–74.2% of potential habitats in China would be outside protected areas. We assess and propose priorities for protected areas, and provide suggestions for conservation management strategies.