Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century

Abstract

Stipa purpurea ( S. purpurea ), a dominant herbage resource in alpine steppe, has an important impact on animal husbandry and the maintenance of natural environmental stability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a hot spot of global warming, the TP has been greatly affected by climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we simulated the potential habitat changes of S. purpurea on the TP in the 21st century using 197 distribution records combined with current (2000–2018) and future (2021–2100) climate data. We also analyzed the critical factors influencing habitat distribution and driving habitat change. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performed well, with the area under the curve (AUC) value of training data and test data being 0.845 and 0.722, respectively. Annual precipitation, elevation, and annual average temperature were identified as the most critical environmental factors shaping the potential distribution of S. purpurea , and temperature was identified as the most critical factor driving S. purpurea habitat change. Under the current climate, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea was 55.15 × 10 4 km 2 , mainly distributed in the Eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe, Southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe, and Ngari montane desert. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea showed an overall increasing trend, under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) was 87.37 × 10 4 km 2 and 57.80 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. A comparison of warming scenarios indicated that warming had a positive effect on the distribution of S. purpurea within a certain temperature range, but continued warming would limit distribution ranges. In response to climate warming in the 21st century, potential habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes. These results will provide a reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies on the TP and similar regions . • Species distribution modeling was used to predict the distribution of S. purpurea . • The “BioVars” package was used to calculate 19 bioclimatic variables. • Temperature contributed most to driving habitat redistribution of S. purpurea . • Warming had a positive effect on S. purpurea within a certain range. • Habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes.