Potential Distribution and Priority Conservation Areas of Pseudotsuga sinensis Forests under Climate Change in Guizhou Province, Southwesten China

Abstract

Priority conservation areas are the key areas of biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem conservation. Based on a Maxent model, this study predicted the potential distribution of Pseudotsuga sinensis under the current climate and future climate change scenarios in Guizhou province, and then, assessed three kinds of priority conservation area under climate change. The results were as follows: (1) The AUC (Area Under the Curve) values showed excellent prediction accuracy of the model. (2) The areas of the potential habitats of P. sinensis forests under the current climate and future climate change scenarios were 22,062.85 km2 and 18,395.92 km2, respectively. As for their spatial distribution, the potential habitats of P. sinensis forests were distributed in the Bijie, Zunyi, Tongren, Liupanshui and Xingyi regions under the current climate, and in the Kaili region, in addition to the above-mentioned cities, under future climate change scenarios. (3) The total area of priority conservation areas under climate change was 25,350.26 km2. The area of the predicted sustainable potential habitats was 15,075.96 km2, of the vulnerable potential habitats was 7256.59 km2 and of the derivative potential habitats was 3017.71 km2.