Spatial forecasting of red palm mite in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios

Denise Navia,Manoel Guedes Correa Gondim Jr,Emília Hamada,Norton Polo Benito

doi:10.1590/s0100-204x2016000500020

Abstract

Abstract: The objective of this work was to predict the spatial distribution of the red palm mite, Raoiella indica (Acari: Tenuipalpidae), in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios. A mapping method of species distribution based on the geographic information system (GIS) was used. The maps were constructed taking into account ranges of favorability for temperature and relative humidity. Favorability levels were defined considering the available information on pest biology and population dynamics. To characterize the current climatic conditions, information was referenced to the climate normal from 1961 to 1990. Future scenarios for the models were the A2 and B1 gas emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, focusing on the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The constructed maps showed that, for the reference period, Brazil presents extensive areas with favorable or very favorable conditions for the establishment of red palm mite populations. An increasing favorability was observed for future scenarios when compared with the reference period, indicating that the pest impact will worsen if it is already widely spread and causing damage in the country. Under current and future climate scenarios, most of the favorable and very favorable areas for red palm mite are in northeastern Brazil.

Highlights

Invasive species and climate change separately represent the two major drivers of ecosystem alterations and are great threats to biodiversity and to production systems, since both can seriously affect global food security (Burgiel & Muir, 2010; Wheeler & von Braun, 2013)
Potential consequences of climate change for invasive species are: the establishment of new invasive species, which can successfully survive in localities where climate conditions were unfavorable and became suitable; altered mechanisms of transport and introduction, in which the movement of invasive species at regional and global scales can be facilitated by extreme weather events, whose severity is increasing with climate changes, such as hurricanes, floods, or currents; the reduction in the effectiveness of control strategies, e.g., a decline in the chemical efficacy of herbicides on invasive plants with rising CO2 levels; and pest distribution extension, that is, the enlargement of the altitudinal or latitudinal distribution range of pests (Hellmann et al, 2008; Burgiel & Muir, 2010)
The species distribution maps were obtained for the potential distribution of R. indica in Brazil under the A2 and B1 future scenarios of climate change (Figures 1–3)

Summary

Introduction

Invasive species and climate change separately represent the two major drivers of ecosystem alterations and are great threats to biodiversity and to production systems, since both can seriously affect global food security (Burgiel & Muir, 2010; Wheeler & von Braun, 2013). Potential consequences of climate change for invasive species are: the establishment of new invasive species, which can successfully survive in localities where climate conditions were unfavorable and became suitable; altered mechanisms of transport and introduction, in which the movement of invasive species at regional and global scales can be facilitated by extreme weather events, whose severity is increasing with climate changes, such as hurricanes, floods, or currents; the reduction in the effectiveness of control strategies, e.g., a decline in the chemical efficacy of herbicides on invasive plants with rising CO2 levels; and pest distribution extension, that is, the enlargement of the altitudinal or latitudinal distribution range of pests (Hellmann et al, 2008; Burgiel & Muir, 2010). Each species and environment presents its own particularities that need to be analyzed individually

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion