Abstract
Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) once inhabited almost the whole of the European continent. After facing nearly complete extinction about a century ago, they now form a more or less connected metapopulation with eleven broad-scale populations and numerous isolated habitat patches throughout Europe. Increasing public interest and a favourable legislative status by the EU give rise to hope for the return of the felide to parts of Central and Western Europe, where it is currently absent. In this context, a solid understanding of the overall suitability of the European landscape for a well-connected lynx population is crucial. Therefore, this work is looking into the current situation as well as potential habitats, ease of movement between those habitats, and potential future distribution, with the main focus on broad-scale spatial patterns. In addition to existing populations, eight habitat clusters were identified across Europe, using a modelling approach, rooted in a rule-based assessment accompanied by least-cost path identification, generating possible movement corridors. Key findings include large areas of potential habitat, yet overall low connectivity, with lynx movement restricted by a lack of forest cover as well as human land use, including mainly linear barriers like highways and dense road networks. This situation provides a number of challenges and opportunities for national and international conservation: The results clearly indicate that for a recolonisation of many parts of the European landscape reintroduction measures are indispensable in many parts of Europe. They also offer a first step towards a general understanding of how large carnivores like the Eurasian lynx might exist within a landscape increasingly shaped by anthropogenic actions and land use.
Highlights
Survival in a strongly human-dominated landscape is a problem faced by many species globally, and large, solitary, wide-ranging felids are especially affected (DUTTA et al 2016; RABINOWITZ and ZELLER 2010)
Thanks to various reintroduction efforts starting with the first legal protection measures in the 1970s, the Eurasian lynx occurs in 27 countries today, including 17 EU member states (FERNÁNDEZ-GIL et al 2018; LARGE CARNIVORE INITIATIVE FOR EUROPE (LCIE) 2019)
This variety is important, as it results in highly differentiated habitats for the Eurasian lynx and complicates the identification of habitat patterns and analysis of the European landscape attempted in this work
Summary
Survival in a strongly human-dominated landscape is a problem faced by many species globally, and large, solitary, wide-ranging felids are especially affected (DUTTA et al 2016; RABINOWITZ and ZELLER 2010). Similar problems have been present in Europe for decades, where large carnivores faced near continent-wide extinction until well into the 20th century (KACZENSKY et al 2012; VON ARX et al 2004) Today they are returning only very slowly to their historical habitats, heavily relying on a favourable legal protection status and active resettlement (BOUYER et al 2015; HERDTFELDER 2012; KACZENSKY et al 2012). The structure of these populations is far from ideal: Large carnivores like the Eurasian lynx form isolated metapopulations across Europe, with only small areas where individuals can settle and breed, connected by corridors, crossing large parts of unsuitable land (CHAPRON et al 2014) These conditions heavily restrict the natural ranging behaviour of those animals, and limit dispersal from their natal ranges. For proper conservation this means that an appropriate metapopulation management approach is needed
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