Potential Extinction Research Articles

Biological invasions drive biotic homogenization of North American crayfishes

The invasion of non-native species, and declines or extinctions of native species, can act together to drive either biotic homogenization or differentiation between regions over time. To date, no studies have investigated whether high incidence of biological invasions, as well as high risk of extinction, among freshwater crayfishes has resulted in biotic homogenization consistent with other taxonomic groups globally. We used Jaccard’s dissimilarity index to calculate taxonomic beta diversity of native crayfishes between and within major regions of North America, the most species-rich region on the planet for these organisms, and subsequently decomposed beta diversity into its turnover and nestedness components. To estimate biotic homogenization or differentiation, we next added introduced and established non-native crayfishes to these beta diversity calculations, and then incrementally subtracted native crayfishes on a gradient of high to lower vulnerability to extinction. We found that North American native crayfishes have extremely high beta diversity between major geographic regions of this continent, driven by turnover rather than nestedness, whereas beta diversity and its components are more heterogenous within major geographic regions. Further, we found that biological invasions by introduced non-native crayfishes drive biotic homogenization, rather than differentiation, between all regions of North America, and this effect was substantially greater than that of potential future extinctions. Within major regions of North America, biological invasions resulted in either biotic homogenization or differentiation, although the magnitude of homogenization when present was greater than that of differentiation. Cumulatively, biological invasions by non-native crayfishes are driving biotic homogenization of North American crayfishes. Management interventions are urgently needed to protect native species and ecosystems from the negative effects of these invasive crayfishes, as well as to conserve the antiquity and novelty of crayfish communities across North America.

A comprehensive, genus-level time-calibrated phylogeny of the tree flora of Mediterranean Europe and an assessment of its vulnerability

ABSTRACT We produced the first time-calibrated phylogeny of all 64 native tree genera occurring on the European side of the Mediterranean Basin. This phylogeny is based on 3 plastid DNA sequences (rbcL matK and trnH-psbA), 4 recognized fossil dates and 10 secondary calibrations. Based on the inferred topology, we then tested whether the investigated tree flora exhibits phylogenetic clustering in both life-history traits known to influence reproduction and species’ vulnerability to extinction. Our topology and the estimated dates mostly conform to published partial phylogenies and are highly congruent with the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group classification except for some minor incongruences including the still debated phylogenetic position of Magnoliids. The four strictly endemic genera of the Mediterranean Basin (Chamaerops, Phillyrea, Spartium and Tetraclinis) all showed emergence dates (11–72 Ma) long before the onset of the Mediterranean climate. We did not find any imprints of phylogenetic sorting processes on the life-history traits we studied, except for the mode of seed dispersal, which showed a clustered distribution across our topology. The presence of species at risk of potential extinction within a given genus was randomly distributed along the phylogenetic tree. Species with deficient data were significantly nested within a few of the most recently evolved angiosperm genera. Our analysis closes knowledge gaps and provides a valuable basis for studying the biogeographical and ecological processes that have generated the Mediterranean tree flora. It can also inform conservation planning strategies that aim at broadening traditional taxonomy-focused perspectives with components of evolutionary history and phylogenetic singularity.

On the Uncertain Taxonomic Identity of Adenomera hylaedactyla (Cope, 1868) and the Composite Type Series of A. andreae (Müller, 1923) (Anura, Leptodactylidae)

Adenomera andreae and A. hylaedactyla are two widespread Amazonian frogs that have been traditionally distinguished from each other by the use of different habitats, toe tip development, and more recently through advertisement calls. Yet, taxonomic identification of these species has always been challenging. Herein we undertake a review of type specimens and include new phenotypic (morphology and vocalization) and mitochondrial DNA information for an updated diagnosis of both species. Our morphological analysis indicates that the single type (holotype) of A. hylaedactyla could either belong to lineages associated with Amazonian forest-dwelling species (A. andreae clade) or to the open-formation morphotype (A. hylaedactyla clade). Given the holotype's poor preservation, leading to the ambiguous assignment of character states for toe tip development, as well as a vague type locality encompassing a vast area in eastern Ecuador and northern Peru, the identity of this specimen is uncertain. Morphology of toe tip fragments and the original species description suggest that A. hylaedactyla could correspond to at least two described species (A. andreae or A. simonstuarti) or additional unnamed genetic lineages of the A. andreae clade, all bearing toe tips expanded into discs. Analysis of morphometric data, however, clustered the holotype with the Amazonian open-formation morphotype (toe tips unexpanded). While additional data can be obtained from the holotype of A. hylaedactyla, at this time this type cannot be unequivocally assigned to any species of Adenomera distributed across eastern Ecuador and Peru's northernmost region of Loreto. For the time being, the name A. hylaedactyla still accommodates the only Amazonian open-habitat species. As to the type series of Adenomera andreae, a forest-associated species with toe tips fully expanded (developed into small discs) from eastern Brazilian Amazonia, we found that one of its paratypes shares a morphotype with the open-habitat species and is reassigned to A. hylaedactyla. With the taxonomic identity of A. hylaedactyla unresolved, formal descriptions of cryptic species complexes within the A. andreae clade distributed across the type locality of A. hylaedactyla run the risk of a possible future synonymization with A. hylaedactyla. Yet, not naming more circumscribed and potentially threatened cryptic species puts them at risk, as they would probably not qualify for conservation funding. Given the current fire crisis in the Amazon Basin, the risk of losing species before they are described far outweighs the risk of synonymization. We recommend that researchers prioritize descriptions based on the potential extinction risk of new species.

Erratum: MELZER, S., HITCHMOUGH, R.A., BELL, T., CHAPPLE, D.G. & PATTERSON, G.B. (2019) Lost and Found: Taxonomic revision of the speckled skink (Oligosoma infrapunctatum; Reptilia; Scincidae) species complex fromNew Zealand reveals a potential cryptic extinction, resurrection of two species, and description of three new species. Zootaxa 4623 (3): 441–484.

Erratum: MELZER, S., HITCHMOUGH, R.A., BELL, T., CHAPPLE, D.G. & PATTERSON, G.B. (2019) Lost and Found: Taxonomic revision of the speckled skink (Oligosoma infrapunctatum; Reptilia; Scincidae) species complex fromNew Zealand reveals a potential cryptic extinction, resurrection of two species, and description of three new species. Zootaxa 4623 (3): 441–484.

Critical shifts on spatial traits and the risk of extinction of Andean anurans: an assessment of the combined effects of climate and land-use change in Colombia

Climate and land-use change, raise significant threats to biodiversity, affecting species ranges worldwide. Both factors operate on different scales, so including spatial traits that allow them to be appropriately evaluated is relevant to the early identification of extinction risks. We aimed to evaluate the potential effects of climate and land-use change on the extent of suitable habitat of a set of species of Andean anurans; to assess the loss of the area of occupancy (AOO); and to estimate the risk of extinction according to the percentages of loss of the extent of suitable habitat and AOO. We modeled the current and future potential distributions of 30 endemic anurans from the Colombian Andes. We calculated the change in current potential distributional ranges and in the extent of suitable habitat under two climatic regimes and land-use scenarios. We quantified the AOO using the 2×2km grid method and assessed its loss based on habitat availability in the combined scenarios. We used the percentage losses of the extent of suitable habitat and AOO to estimate and compare the extinction risks according to IUCN criteria. We found that climate and land-use change will cause a relative loss of 63.4 % to 79.4 % of the current extent of suitable habitat and 49.6 % to 72.6 % of AOO of the Andean anurans by the year 2050. The loss of AOO made it possible to detect twice as many species at high risk of extinction than the loss of the extent of suitable habitat. The effects of climate change and habitat loss could lead to potential extinction events in Andean frogs. Extent of suitable habitat, and especially the area of occupancy are appropriate spatial traits that could be used to assess extinction risks in species sensitive to local habitat modification by climate change and land-use change.

Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions. There is concern that such distribution shifts will affect animal-plant pollination networks. We modelled the potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of an endangered migratory bat species (Leptonycteris nivalis) and the plants they pollinate (Agave spp) during their annual migration from central Mexico to the southern United States. Our models show that the overlap between the Agave and the endangered pollinating bat will be reduced by at least 75%. The reduction of suitable areas for Agave species will restrict the foraging resources available for the endangered bat, threatening the survival of its populations and the maintenance of their pollination service. The potential extinction of the bat L. nivalis will likely have negative effects on the sexual reproduction and genetic variability of Agave plants increasing their vulnerability to future environmental changes.

Review of the bee genus Homalictus Cockerell (Hymenoptera: Halictidae)from Fiji with description of nine new species.

The genus Homalictus Cockerell has not been taxonomically reviewed in the Fijian archipelago for 40 years. Here we redescribe the four known species and describe nine new ones, bringing the number of endemic Homalictus in Fiji to 13 species. We provide identifications keys to all species. Most of the species diversity (11 species) have their distributions over 800 m asl (meters above sea level; highlands), and with only two species under 800 m asl (lowlands). We highlight the vulnerability of the highland-restricted species to a warming climate, and document the potential extinction of one highland species. The new species described here are H. atritergus sp. nov., H. concavus sp. nov., H. groomi sp. nov., H. kaicolo sp. nov., H. nadarivatu sp. nov., H. ostridorsum sp. nov., H. taveuni sp. nov. H. terminalis sp. nov. and H. tuiwawae sp. nov.. [Zoobank URL: urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:71318BEC-40CD-470F-A1E7-0E1FD18A6459].

Atlantic corals under climate change: modelling distribution shifts to predict richness, phylogenetic structure and trait-diversity changes

Climate change is altering species distributions worldwide. Particularly, global warming is driving range contractions and expansions of tropical species, such as corals. The use of climatic projections, via species distribution models to predict species distributional shifts, can identify threaten species and help to set priority areas of conservation. In this study, we assessed if distributional shifts of 45 Atlantic reef-forming corals (scleractinian), and the main environmental variables driving their distributions, correlated with their phylogeny and/or their functional traits; i.e. whether expected contractions and expansions affected specific clades, or specific coral traits. We also estimated the potential loss and/or gain of species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic species variability (PSV), as well as the phylogenetic structure of Atlantic reef communities (‘clustering’, ‘overdispersion’ or ‘randomness’), under a future climate scenario (A2-IPCC-2100). The potential loss of Atlantic corals in the future will be randomly distributed across their phylogeny, i.e. potential extinctions will not only affect one section of the phylogeny, therefore alleviating an inordinate loss of evolutionary history. Nearly all current and future communities presented a ‘random’ phylogenetic structure. No correlation was found between distributional shifts and coral traits. Environmental variables did not show a significant correlation with the phylogeny neither with coral traits. Predicted changes in species richness, PD and PSV vary across the Atlantic; certain areas display large evolutionary diversity losses. Species belonging to isolated clades (high evolutionary distinctiveness) contribute to quantitative increases, or decreases, of PD and PSV, becoming crucial species for conservation. These findings highlight the importance of combining SDMs with phylogenetic/functional metrics to develop conservation strategies to assess the future of corals.

Integrating alpha, beta, and phylogenetic diversity to understand anuran fauna along environmental gradients of tropical forests in western Ecuador.

The study of current distribution patterns of amphibian species in South America is of particular interest in areas such as evolutionary ecology and conservation biology. These patterns could be playing an important role in biological interactions, population size, and connectivity, and potential extinction risk in amphibians. Here, we tested the effects of spatial and environmental factors on the variation, turnover, and phylogenetic diversity of anuran amphibian species in tropical forests of western Ecuador. Data for presence/absence of 101 species of 34 genera and 10 families registered in 12 sites (nested in four biogeographic units) were obtained through fieldwork, museum collections, and literature records. We examined the influence of geographical, altitudinal, temperature, and precipitation distances on differences in anuran composition between sites. We found significant positive correlations among all of these variables with anuran distribution. The greatest alpha diversity (species richness) was found in the Equatorial Chocó biogeographic unit. Equatorial Pacific biogeographic unit could act as a transition zone between the Equatorial Chocó and Equatorial Tumbes. The western Andes (Western Cordillera biogeographic unit) was the most dissimilar and exhibited a higher species turnover rate than the other biogeographic units. Our results suggest that precipitation and elevation play a key role in maintaining the diversity of amphibian species in western Ecuador.

Hoping the best, expecting the worst: forecasting the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on Iberian plants of conservation concern

ABSTRACTBackground: Worldwide, halting biodiversity loss is still a major challenge. Climate and land-use change (CLUC) are major drivers of species decline, and further expected to drive species’ future ranges. Understanding how these changes may impact species in the future is thus of utmost importance in the context of conservation and monitoring. This is especially critical for species of conservation concern, known to be more prone to extinction under environmental change.Aims: Here we addressed how CLUC may affect future distributions of 64 plant species designated under conservation legislation for Portugal and Spain. Current and future species distributions were modelled and projected under three CLUC scenarios. Range changes were analysed for each species and IUCN category, considering climate versus land-use change models, and the trade-offs between them.Results: Overall, our results depict consistent trends in the distribution of the targeted species under CLUC. The results also highlight potential extinction for some of the targeted species under climate change. However, under land-use change, 10 species are likely to expand their suitable habitat.Conclusions: Our research advances existing knowledge on how climate and land-use change may impact species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula. Such knowledge is essential if further losses of species of conservation concern are to be proactively anticipated. Ultimately, such information can be useful to support data-driven conservation programmes and decision-making in the future.

Climate change effects on population dynamics of three species of Amazonian lizards

The scarcity of data on natural history and ecology of lizards still limits the understanding of population dynamics for many species. We attempt to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the population dynamics of three lizard species (Ameiva ameiva, Gonatodes humeralis and Norops fuscoauratus) in two Amazonian localities (Caxiuanã National Forest and Ducke Reserve). We calculated a tolerance index combining environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which consider survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics. Thus, we simulated population growth rates based on current and future environmental operative temperatures, considering an optimistic and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions (GGE), and evaluate if the sensitivity of life history traits to population growth rate are likely to be trigged by climate change. Our results demonstrated that both populations of G. humeralis and the Ducke population of N. fuscoauratus may become locally extinct under both scenarios of GGE, while both populations of A. ameiva are likely to decrease, but without reaching a scenario of local extirpation. This study represents the first effort to evaluate the sensitivity of lizard populations and elasticity to climate change and demonstrate the geographic variability of these traits in three widespread and habitat-generalist species. We highlight the need of new studies focusing on species with different biological trait patterns, such as endemic distributions and habitat-specialists, to provide the theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions, in order to minimize the potential extinction of populations due to climate change.

Reinforcement Contingency Learning in Children with ADHD: Back to the Basics of Behavior Therapy

Reinforcement deficits in ADHD may affect basic operant learning processes relevant for Behavioral Treatment. Behavior acquired under partial reinforcement extinguishes less readily after the discontinuation of reinforcement than behavior acquired under continuous reinforcement, a phenomenon known as the Partial Reinforcement Extinction Effect [PREE], which has great relevance for the emergence of behavioral persistence. The present study examined acquisition and extinction of operant responding under partial and continuous reinforcement in children with and without ADHD. In addition, we evaluated the effectiveness of gradual stretching the reinforcement rate during acquisition for remedying potential acquisition or extinction deficits under partial reinforcement in ADHD. In an operant learning task designed to mimic the task confronted by an animal in a Skinner box, 62 typically developing and 49 children with ADHD (age: 8–12) were presented with a continuous, partial or gradually stretching reinforcement scheme followed by extinction. Both groups of children acquired the instrumental response more slowly and exhibited more behavioral persistence (reduced extinction) when responding was initially reinforced under partial relative to continuous reinforcement, with no differences between groups. Progressive ratio stretching resulted in faster acquisition than partial reinforcement yet promoted equal behavioral persistence, again without differences between ADHD and TD groups. Unlike suggested by previous research, children with ADHD exhibit neither an acquisition deficit under partial reinforcement nor a deficit in PREE. Of relevance for Behavioral Treatment, gradual reinforcement stretching can be used to facilitate response acquisition over purely partial reinforcement while maintaining equal behavioral persistence upon reward discontinuation.

Lost and Found: Taxonomic revision of the speckled skink (Oligosoma infrapunctatum; Reptilia; Scincidae) species complex from New Zealand reveals a potential cryptic extinction, resurrection of two species, and description of three new species.

New Zealand has a diverse skink fauna, comprising 45 described native species, and at least 15 undescribed taxa, within the single genus Oligosoma Girard, 1857. One of the earliest described, and best known, species is the speckled skink, Oligosoma infrapunctatum (Boulenger 1887). Despite a relatively stable taxonomic history for nearly 114 years, recent molecular work has indicated that O. infrapunctatum represents a species complex, comprising numerous genetically divergent, range restricted taxa. We completed the first stage of a taxonomic revision of O. infrapunctatum, conducting a morphological re-evaluation of existing voucher material, and newly collected specimens, and generated a molecular phylogeny for the species complex. This allowed us to distinguish six species: O. infrapunctatum, two species resurrected from synonymy (O. newmani, O. robinsoni), and three new species (O. salmo sp. nov., O. albornense sp. nov. O. auroraensis sp. nov.). The name bearing type population of O. infrapunctatum has not been located again for at least 130 years: it remains to be rediscovered and may already be extinct. Two of the six species here are considered 'Nationally Critical' (O. albornense sp. nov., O. salmo sp. nov.) under the New Zealand Threat Classification System, the others are Nationally Vulnerable (O. auroraensis sp. nov.) and At Risk-Relict (O. newmani, O. robinsoni). Further taxonomic work will be required to determine the taxonomy of other speckled skink genetic lineages in the South Island, particularly O. aff. infrapunctatum "cobble", O. "Hokitika", O. "Southern North Island" and O. "Westport".

Testing the effects of plant species loss on multiple ecosystem functions based on extinction scenarios

Ecosystem functions are threatened by continuing global loss of biodiversity. We simultaneously investigated three ecosystem functions and forage nutrient values following potential species extinction scenarios (dominant species removal, rare species removal, end-member species removal and random species removal) in a Mongolian grassland. ANPP, forage nutrient values, litter decomposition, and soil respiration were measured one and/or two years after plant removal. DNA samples of microorganisms extracted from the soil were subjected to metagenomics analysis. Finally, we calculated the multifunctionality, and examined the relationship of multifunctionality with plant and microorganism diversity. Among ecosystem functions, ANPP and litter decomposition rate decreased under random and rare species extinction scenarios, respectively, and forage quality increased when only dominant species had been removed. Diversity and species composition of soil microorganism were not affected by plant species richness or removal scenario. Only genus-level diversity of bacteria and ANPP were significantly and positively correlated with microbial diversity. Taken together, decreasing species richness of plants and soil organisms rarely impaired multifunctionality. Ecosystem functions were relatively robust to realistic disturbances and species extinction in natural grasslands. However, as each function responded differently to the different sets of species removed, the consequences of a realistic non-random extinction scenario for multiple ecosystem functions should be critical to the management of biodiversity loss caused by different disturbances.

Integrated Coastal-Terrestrial Conservation Planning for landscape-scale reserve design in Southeastern Iran

Natural habitats of Southeastern Iran are threatened by both natural and anthropogenic pressures such as long-term drought, dust storms, and land use change. Surveys on habitat suitability of vulnerable species and integration of protected areas have raised alarm over potential species extinction and geographical isolation of populations. Reducing the threats of human activities on sensitive terrestrial and coastal ecosystems requires integrated planning and management of terrestrial and coastal protected areas, however many of these areas have been selected and managed independently. Selecting coastal protected areas network require a systematic conservation planning approach, to reduce the development impacts on sensitive habitats. Therefore, this study aimed to identify an optimized integrative network of terrestrial and coastal protected areas in southeast Iran. An attempt was made to maximize biodiversity conservation, reduce the isolation of populations, and increase the resilience of the region’s natural habitats to new development plans by including coastal habitats meeting the requirements of key species. Firstly, suitable habitats for seven key species were simulated by Species Distribution Models (SDMs) performed via Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Boosted Model (GBM), Random Forest (RF), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models fitted with 20 ecological and anthropogenic variables. A habitat suitability map was produced by integrating the SDM-derived habitat suitability maps with the suitable extents identified for egg-laying green sea turtle and potential habitat for aquatic and semi-aquatic birds. An attempt was then made for selecting new terrestrial and coastal protected areas using the simulated annealing algorithm under six scenarios. All SDMs exhibited promising performances in predicting the distribution of suitable habitats with AUC values of above 0.8 and the discrimination power of GBM and RF was higher than that of the other SDMs. In total, more than 34 percent of the study area, along the coastline, was categorized as sensitive or extremely sensitive habitat. An east-west habitat corridor presently unprotected playing an important role in connecting habitats needs to be safeguarded to maintain regional biodiversity. Moreover, our study revealed that the majority of suitable habitats with high potential for sensitive species are not currently protected by the existing protected area network.

Hotspots of human impact on threatened terrestrial vertebrates.

Conserving threatened species requires identifying where across their range they are being impacted by threats, yet this remains unresolved across most of Earth. Here, we present a global analysis of cumulative human impacts on threatened species by using a spatial framework that jointly considers the co-occurrence of eight threatening processes and the distribution of 5,457 terrestrial vertebrates. We show that impacts to species are widespread, occurring across 84% of Earth’s surface, and identify hotspots of impacted species richness and coolspots of unimpacted species richness. Almost one-quarter of assessed species are impacted across >90% of their distribution, and approximately 7% are impacted across their entire range. These results foreshadow localised extirpations and potential extinctions without conservation action. The spatial framework developed here offers a tool for defining strategies to directly mitigate the threats driving species’ declines, providing essential information for future national and global conservation agendas.

Niche conservatism drives a global discrepancy in palm species richness between seasonally dry and moist habitats

AbstractAimRapid global environmental change predicts increasingly seasonal climate in the tropics, causing expansion of seasonally dry habitats and leading to shifts in species distribution and potential extinction. Here, we use a macroevolutionary framework to understand the processes driving palm diversity patterns between moist and seasonally dry tropical habitats. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in species richness between habitats is explained by higher speciation rates in moist habitat and that niche conservatism prevents frequent shifts between habitats.LocationGlobal.Time periodLast 100 Ma.Major taxa studiedArecaceae.MethodsWe used trait‐dependent diversification models to test whether different habitats affect palm speciation rates. Furthermore, palm assemblages were divided into three regions (Africa, Australasia and Neotropics) to test for niche conservatism and evaluate phylogenetic dissimilarity.ResultsWe found no relationship between speciation rate and habitat type. We detected phylogenetic signal for habitats at both global and continental scales, indicating that closely related species were more similar than expected by chance. Colonization of seasonally dry habitats occurred c. 60 Ma, yet most clades only diversified after c. 30 Ma. The high phylogenetic dissimilarity between habitat types at both global and continental scales was driven by high lineage turnover, at least for Africa and the Neotropics.Main conclusionsWe found a lack of differential speciation rates in setting the seasonally dry and moist palm‐richness discrepancy. However, over evolutionary history most palm lineages fail to colonize seasonally dry habitats owing to a tendency to retain ancestral habitat. Indeed, seasonally dry palm assemblages are the result of the diversification of particular lineages. Likewise, long‐term dry periods appear to induce shifts in taxonomic and functional diversity, and we emphasize that the expansion of dry habitats might also imply a loss of palm clades, hence a reduction in phylogenetic diversity.

Marine protected areas enhance structural complexity but do not buffer the consequences of ocean warming for an overexploited precious coral

Abstract Global warming and overexploitation both threaten the integrity and resilience of marine ecosystems. Many calls have been made to at least partially offset climate change impacts through local conservation management. However, a mechanistic understanding of the interactions of multiple stressors is generally lacking for habitat‐forming species; preventing the development of sound conservation strategies. We examined the effectiveness of no‐take marine protected areas (MPAs) at enhancing structural complexity and resilience to climate change on populations of an overexploited and long‐lived octocoral. We used long‐term data over eight populations, subjected to varying levels of disturbances, and Integral Projection Models to understand how the overfishing and mass‐mortality events shape the stochastic dynamics of the Mediterranean red coral Corallium rubrum. Marine protected areas largely reduced colony partial mortality (i.e. shrinkage), enhancing the structural complexity of coral populations. However, there were no significant differences in individual mortality or population growth rates between protected and exploited populations. In contrast, warming had detrimental consequences for the long‐term viability of red coral populations, driving steady declines and potential local extinctions due to sharp effects in survival rates. Stochastic demographic models revealed only a weak compensatory effect of MPAs on the impacts of warming. Policy implications. Our results suggest that marine protected areas (MPAs) are an effective local conservation tool for enhancing the structural complexity of red coral populations. However, MPAs may not be enough to ensure red coral's persistence under future increases in thermal stress. Accordingly, conservation strategies aiming to ensure the persistence and functional role of red coral populations should include management actions at both local (well‐enforced MPAs) and global scales (reductions in greenhouse gas emissions). Finally, this study unravels the divergent demographic consequences that can arise from multiple stressors and highlights the key role of demography in better understanding and predicting the consequences of combined impacts for vulnerable ecosystems.

Camera trapping and transect counts yield complementary insights into an endangered island endemic rail

Island endemic species are disproportionately represented in the tally of global extinctions. The island endemic Cocos buff-banded rail (Hypotaenidia philippensis andrewsi) is classified under the Australian Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act) as Endangered. It is restricted to the remote Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the Indian Ocean where, until 2013, only the island Pulu Keeling supported a population of this species, following earlier extirpations of the bird from islands in the southern atoll. To establish a second viable population to mitigate against potential extinction of this subspecies, 39 rails were reintroduced from Pulu Keeling to Horsburgh Island in April 2013. As a component of post-translocation monitoring, we conducted intensive camera trapping from 29 May 2015 to 30 June 2016 (397 calendar days) to investigate recruitment success, behaviour and potential threats to the population. Biannual transect sampling to monitor and investigate long-term population density was also conducted. We found Cocos buff-banded rail persisting on Horsburgh Island with an increase in the founder population to 97 rails in February 2016. Ongoing recruitment with breeding activity on Horsburgh Island and the emigration of rails to nearby (2.5km) Direction Island is indicative of short-term success. Images from the camera traps have documented behaviours that have not previously been described for the species. House mice were also identified as a potential threat to the Horsburgh Island rail population. Island rail species have suffered a high rate of extinctions, and their conservation remains a formidable challenge, given the risks of continuing introductions of invasive mammalian predator species.

Mammal diversity will take millions of years to recover from the current biodiversity crisis

The incipient sixth mass extinction that started in the Late Pleistocene has already erased over 300 mammal species and, with them, more than 2.5 billion y of unique evolutionary history. At the global scale, this lost phylogenetic diversity (PD) can only be restored with time as lineages evolve and create new evolutionary history. Given the increasing rate of extinctions however, can mammals evolve fast enough to recover their lost PD on a human time scale? We use a birth-death tree framework to show that even if extinction rates slow to preanthropogenic background levels, recovery of lost PD will likely take millions of years. These findings emphasize the severity of the potential sixth mass extinction and the need to avoid the loss of unique evolutionary history now.