Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex

Emma P Gómez-Ruiz,Thomas E Lacher

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-50059-6

Emma P Gómez-Ruiz, Thomas E Lacher

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50059-6

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Abstract

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions. There is concern that such distribution shifts will affect animal-plant pollination networks. We modelled the potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of an endangered migratory bat species (Leptonycteris nivalis) and the plants they pollinate (Agave spp) during their annual migration from central Mexico to the southern United States. Our models show that the overlap between the Agave and the endangered pollinating bat will be reduced by at least 75%. The reduction of suitable areas for Agave species will restrict the foraging resources available for the endangered bat, threatening the survival of its populations and the maintenance of their pollination service. The potential extinction of the bat L. nivalis will likely have negative effects on the sexual reproduction and genetic variability of Agave plants increasing their vulnerability to future environmental changes.

Highlights

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions
Our models show that the suitable environments for all the species are reduced under future scenarios of climate change (Supplementary Information Fig. S1)
The same trend is seen for A. asperrima and for the bat L. nivalis, but in both time projections of 2050 and 2070

Summary

Introduction

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions. We modelled the potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of an endangered migratory bat species (Leptonycteris nivalis) and the plants they pollinate (Agave spp) during their annual migration from central Mexico to the southern United States. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for many species would change, reducing or increasing in size or shifting in latitude and elevation[4,5,6,7]. Concerns about the loss of pollinators has increased calls for the inclusion of the risk factors of climate change into vulnerability assessments of extinction risk across multiple taxa[16] and in particular for the integration of climate change assessments into the IUCN Red List process[17]. Previous studies show evidence that long-nosed bats (Leptonycteris spp.)

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