Cocoa is one of the potential commodities in Indonesia, therefore it is necessary to predict the increase cocoa production in Indonesia in the coming period and how to develop its strategy to get better as this year Indonesia in the rank of 4th after 3rd in the previous years. This study uses a simple linear regression method and SWOT analysis. The results obtained are the results of the analysis of the prediction of cocoa production in Indonesia in 2022-2050 by using simple regression analysis with cocoa production data in 1990-2019. In 2022 Cocoa production is estimated to reach 892,374.33 tons and it is estimated in 2050 cocoa production in Indonesia will reach 1,536,883.23 tons. In the future, let’s say the target of the increase of cocoa production in Indonesia 2022-2050 is 20%, so the production predicted in 2022 will be 1,077,133.68 tons and in 2050 reached 1,798,983.76 tons. It means, there will be a lot of potential production of cocoa which may bring a power to the supply of cocoa in the world, and it is possible to be increased in the world rank. The results of the SWOT analysis show that the position of cocoa development in Indonesia is in quadrant 3, where Indonesia has a large market opportunity but is also hindered by internal constraints. To get better in production as well as its quality, according to the analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of cocoa plantations in Indonesia, there are several ways to make a development strategy, including: (1) Improving of cocoa plantations, (2) Improving the quality of cocoa seeds, (3) Encouraging the use of superior pest-resistant seeds in order to increase production and quality of cocoa. (4) Intensive counseling and assistance for farmers needs to be done to improve the human resources of cocoa farmers, (5) The use of the Fairtrade trading system for producers (Cocoa Farmers) as the opportunity to make their life better, (6) Rejuvenating and rehabilitating old cocoa plants using superior and resistant seeds/ plants from pest attacks, (7) Encouraging farmers to carry out the correct postharvest process to get better of cocoa prices, (8) Developing cocoa processing industries in Indonesia to increase the added - value and income of farmers, (9) Strengthening institutions among farmers by forming farmer groups so that farmers can do the farming effectively and efficiently so that they get better income, (10) Encouraging the government to prepare the extension workers to assist farmers through farmer groups in cocoa farming so that farmers are not interested to replace cocoa with other commodities, (11) Organizing regulation on Cocoa plantations so that farmers can produce cocoa in accordance with the quality requirements of the global market.
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