Possible Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Possible changes and occurrences of future wave power in an enclosed sea using a high-resolution regional climate model

The present study evaluates future wave power resources and detects a possible impact of climate change on wave power in an enclosed sea (Black Sea) for the 21st century. The wave data are obtained from a third-generation spectral wave model using a validated RCM (Regional Climate Model). The wave power projection and projected occurrences are analyzed for near and middle future (NF, MF) periods based on two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). Possible changes in wave power for the NF 2021–2060 and MF 2061−2100 periods are evaluated by comparing the historical (1970–2005) period. According to two RCP scenarios, the wave power potential for the NF is expected to increase markedly over the entire basin, while, for the MF, the changes are projected by decreases, especially in the northeastern and western parts of the basin. Furthermore, projected occurrences are examined using Energy Level Occurrences known as available, moderate, and rich level occurrences. The 15 reference points over the basin are chosen to detect the most suitable location(s) for future wave power developments. All spatial and local analyses indicate that the western basin, especially the southwest, will continue having high wave power potential and occurrences in future periods.

Possible impact of climate change on incidence of insect pests of rice

Possible impact of climate change on incidence of insect pests of rice

ВЗАЄМОЗВ’ЯЗОК ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ КЛІМАТИЧНИХ ЗМІН ТА РОБОТИ ВІДКРИТИХ СИСТЕМ ОХОЛОДЖЕННЯ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНИХ ОБ’ЄКТІВ УКРАЇНИ

This study provides an assessment of the possible impact of climate change on increas-ing the temperature of water in the sources from which water is taken for open technical cooling systems. In recent years, there has been a decrease in the efficiency of nuclear reactors at Ukraine's nuclear power plants in the hot summer months of the year. Using the example of cooling ponds of operating nuclear power plants, an assessment of the mutual influence of air temperature indicators and the temperature of surface water for cooling was made. Based on the monitoring temperature data of the cooling reservoirs of the NPP of Ukraine in different months of 2020, as one of the hottest years of observations, the equations of the correlation dependences between the temperature indicators of the surface air and the temperature of the cooling water were obtained. In the OriginPro8 software environment, which is widely used as an industrial standard for data collection and visualization, a climatic forecast of the atmospheric air in the territory of Ukraine was made and a forecast dependence of the water rise in water bodies was established for the period until 2160. The obtained forecast values of the relative total efficiency of the NPP reactors of Ukraine for different periods until 2050, which indicates a gradual decrease in the output power in the nuclear power industry of Ukraine. This approach to the analysis of the operation of cooling ponds can be acceptable for evaluating the operation of thermal plants and other industrial facilities that have an open cooling pond and can serve as support for making management decisions in the context of global climate change and for preventing the risks of emergency situations on the object.

Modeling the impact of changing in climatic variables on streamflow of borkena river catchment, awash basin, ethiopia

Poor land management coupled with increasing climate extremes is affecting the livelihoods of Ethiopian communities. So, evaluating the possible impact of climate change on water resource is essential for planning a sustainable water use system. As a result, the aim of this study was to investigate impact of climatic variable changes on streamflow in Borkena River Catchment, Awash Basin, Ethiopia using projected climate data of canESM2 (Canadian Earth System Model of second generation) global climate model. Future scenario, analysis was performed for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s for the Representative Concentration Pathway of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact assessment of climatic variable changes on streamflow was done by HBV Light hydrological models. The model was calibrated using asemi–automated method and the performance was measured by the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and mean difference. The performance of HBV Light hydrological model during calibration and validation period showed a satisfactory agreement between observed and simulated flow with R2, NSE and mean difference. The value of R2, NSE and mean differences was 0.84, 0.82 and 0 for calibration and 0.83, 0.78 and 8.23 for validation periods, respectively. The downscaled precipitation and temperature result reveals decrease and increase value in all future three time horizon for both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios in annual basis respectively. This condition was expected to result decreased in mean annual streamflow of Borkena River in the future three time horizon with the value of –16.81%,–17.25% and –18.28% for RCP8.5 scenario and –6.88%, –9.89%, and –10.66% for RCP4.5 scenario in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Inoculation future climate variation has significant impact on surface water potential of the catchment. So, for sustainable development of the River catchment in water use the streamflow of the catchment should be harvested.

The Interannual Variations of Summer Ichthyoplankton in the Pearl River Estuary as a Response to Climate Change

The impacts of climate change on ichthyoplankton have barely been examined in the Pearl River estuary (PRE). Using the fish larvae and eggs caught in the estuary in the summer from 2003 to 2018 (except for the years 2004 and 2008), the spatial and temporal variations in ichthyoplankton’s abundance, species composition, and community structure were examined and linked to the variability of the climate system. A positive/negative correlation was found between the abundance and taxonomic diversity of the fish larvae and the monthly Oceanic Niño Index. However, the variation in larval fish’s species diversity was in phase with climate change, while the variation in larval fish’s abundance had a 3-month lag behind the climate variability. The different phases of the correlations reflect a progressive change in the ichthyoplankton dynamics under the influence of climate. Furthermore, during the period of the study, the regional climate underwent an obvious transition from a “cold” to a “warm” state in the early 2010s. Associated with that, it was found that both the abundance and species composition of the ichthyoplankton exhibit a significant change around that time, particularly for the fish larvae. A further examination of the ichthyoplankton’s horizontal distributions suggests that the assemblage of ichthyoplankton in the PRE is sensitive to the La Niña conditions. This leads to an overall reduction in ichthyoplankton’s abundance and less seaward spreading of the assemblage, implying the possible impact of climate change on river discharge and then the estuarine environment.

Predicting Climate Change Effects on the Potential Distribution of Two Invasive Cryptic Species of the Bemisia tabaci Species Complex in China.

Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) are two invasive cryptic species of the Bemisia tabaci species complex (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) that cause serious damage to agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide. To explore the possible impact of climate change on their distribution, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED in China under current and four future climate scenarios, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, over four time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED were extensive and similar in China under current climatic conditions, while their moderately and highly suitable habitat ranges differed. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of suitable habitat of different levels for MEAM1 and MED were predicted to increase to different degrees. However, the predicted expansion of suitable habitats varied between them, suggesting that these invasive cryptic species respond differently to climate change. Our results illustrate the difference in the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of different cryptic species of B. tabaci and provide insightful information for further forecasting and managing the two invasive cryptic species in China.

How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective

Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within −5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a “rosy” but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.

Phenotypic differentiation and diversifying selection in populations of Eruca sativa along an aridity gradient

BackgroundThe aridity gradient in the eastern Mediterranean offers an opportunity to investigate intra-specific genetic differentiation and local adaptation in plant populations. Here we used genetic (FST) and quantitative trait (PST) differentiation to assess local adaptation among three natural populations of Eruca sativa (Brassicaceae) distributed along a climatic range representing desert, semi-arid and Mediterranean habitats.ResultsAmplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis revealed high genetic diversity in each population, but low genetic differentiation between populations and relatively high gene flow. Further phenotypic evaluation in a common garden experiment (conduced in a Mediterranean habitat) showed clear differences in phenological traits among populations (day of flowering and duration of the reproductive stage), shoot and root biomass, as well as fitness-related traits (total number of fruits and total seed weight). FST–PST comparison showed that PST values of the phenological traits, as well as below- and above-ground biomass and fitness-related traits, were higher than the FST values.ConclusionsOverall, our results support the identification of genotypic and phenotypic differentiation among populations of E. sativa. Furthermore, the FST–PST comparison supports the hypothesis that these were subjected to past diversifying selection. Thus, the results clearly demonstrate adaptive divergence among populations along an aridity gradient, emphasize the ecological value of early flowering time in arid habitats, and contribute to our understanding of the possible impact of climate change on evolutionary processes in plant populations.

Extinction of endemic taxa as a direct consequence of global climate change

Global climate change occurs from both natural and anthropic causes. Anthropic climate change has effects at various scales and occurs faster than the adaptation of species to these changes. Protected natural areas have been created to preserve species from the different threats facing them. Sierra La Laguna is a sky island with almost no anthropic pressure given its natural isolation; it is home to several endemic taxa, including Peromyscus truei lagunae and Sorex ornatus lagunae. This study aims to assess the possible impact of climate change on species endemic to a sky island exposed to virtually no local anthropic pressure. The Sierra La Laguna sky island, located in the southern region of the Baja California peninsula, harbors different vegetation types, including an oak-pine forest at the highest elevations and xeric vegetation at lower ones. Ecological niche models were developed under three climate change scenarios contemplating temperature rises of 1.5 °C and 4.4 °C. There are insufficient localities to make statistically robust models for mammalian species. Therefore, we used plant species typical of the oak-pine forest (Pinus cembroides lagunae, Quercus brandegeei, and Q. devia) and the rodents Peromyscus eva, that thrives in dry deciduous forests, and Chaetodipus rudinoris and C. spinatus, associated with xeric ecosystems. The models show that ecological suitability for the oak species decreases, while it is completely lost for the pine species. On the other hand, P. eva broadens its elevational range, while C. rudinoris and C. spinatus increase their ecological suitability in both area and elevation. The Sierra La Laguna sky island is an area with virtually no regional or local anthropic pressure. Nonetheless, the projections conducted under various climate change scenarios show a loss of up to 100 % of the area of climatic and elevational suitability for species characteristic of the oak-pine forest even with the minimum temperature rise of 1.5 °C. These results suggest that, under these conditions, endemic species such as P. t. lagunae and S. o. lagunae will become extinguished despite the absence of local anthropic pressures.

Залежність виникнення поривів вітру від аномалій тиску та температури повітря на території Північно-Західного Причорнорномор’я

In order to reduce the devastating consequences of extreme wind gusts, a significant amount of research is being carried out in the world to study the conditions for the occurrence of this phenomenon, the dynamics of its spatio-temporal distribution, and a possible potential change in the wind regime against the background of modern climate change. Nowadays, it appears that not much research has been carried out to determine the possible impact of climate change on future wind gusts on the territory of Ukraine and, in particular, in the Northern Black Sea region. Global warming scenarios are expected to change the severity and frequency of future wind gusts by the end of this century. Considering this, a study was made of the spatio-temporal features of the formation of wind gusts in the North-Western Black Sea region for the period 2005-2020, and the dependence of their occurrence on air temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies, which can be used to analyze possible changes of future wind regimes as a result of climate change. To analyze the occurrence of wind gusts in the North-Western Black Sea region, data from three stations located in different parts of the region were selected. The data of METAR telegrams on wind gusts at the Odessa-AMSC, Mykolaiv, Kherson stations and surface weather observations data for the period from January 2005 to December 2020 were used as source material in the work. For statistical analysis of daily air temperature and pressure anomalies, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis archive data for the same period were used. The obtained results show that in the territory of the North-Western Black Sea region over the past 15 years, wind gusts in the gradation of 13-15 (m.s-1) prevailed, and the speed of wind gusts in most cases rised with an increase of the daily temperature anomaly (from 0.0 to 5.0 °С) and a decrease of the daily pressure anomaly (from 0 to -7.0 hPa).

Excessive Rainfall Is the Key Meteorological Limiting Factor for Winter Wheat Yield in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

In the era of global climate change, extreme weather events frequently occur. Many kinds of agro-meteorological disasters that are closely related to environmental conditions (such as sunshine hours, temperature, precipitation, etc.) are witnessed all over the word. However, which factor dominates winter wheat production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River remains unresolved. Quantifying the key limiting meteorological factor could deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on crops and then help us to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. However, the relative role of precipitation, sunshine hours and maximum daily temperature in limiting winter wheat yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is not clear and difficult to decouple. In this study, we used statistical methods to quantify the effect of precipitation, maximum temperature and sunshine hours extremes on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield based on long time-series, county-level yield data and a daily meteorological dataset. According to the winter wheat growing season period (October of the sowing year to May of the following year), anomaly values of cumulative precipitation, average sunshine hours and average daily maximum temperature are calculated. With the range of −3 σ to 3 σ of anomaly and an interval of 0.5 σ (σ is the corresponding standard deviation of cumulative precipitation, mean maximum temperature and mean sunshine hours, respectively), the corresponding weighted yield loss ratio (WYLR) represents the impact of this kind of climate condition on yield. The results show that excessive rainfall is the key limiting meteorological factor that can reduce winter wheat yield to −18.4% in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while it is only −0.24% in extreme dry conditions. Moreover, yield loss under extreme temperature and sunshine hours are negligible (−0.66% for extremely long sunshine hours and −8.29% for extreme cold). More detailed analysis results show that the impact of excessive rainfall on winter wheat yield varies regionally, as it causes severe yield reductions in the Huai River basin and the middle to southern part with low elevation and rainy areas of the study area, while for drier areas in the Hubei province, there is even an increase in yield. Our results disclosed with observational evidence that excessive precipitation is the key meteorological limiting factor leading to the reduction in winter wheat yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The knowledge of the possible impact of climate change on winter wheat yield in the study area allows policy-makers, agronomists and economists to better forecast a plan that differs from the past. In addition, our results emphasized the need for better understanding and further process-based model simulation of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.

Application of the MUSLE Model and Potential Effects of Climate Change in a Small Alpine Catchment in Northern Italy

The evaluation of sediment yield by water erosion taking into consideration the possible impact of climate change is the object of this work, concerning the use of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in an Italian case study. This empirical model was implemented in a Geographical Information System, taking into account Alpine hydrology and geomorphological and climate parameters, which are crucial in the analysis of the intensity and variability of sediment yield production processes. The case study is the Guerna Creek basin, a small-sized mountain watershed placed in Lombardy, in the South-Central Alps (Northern Italy). In recent decades it has been hit at the same time by floods and erosive phenomena, showing its hydraulic-hydrological weakness. Three future climate change scenarios from 2041 to 2060, around the middle of this century, were built according to CORDEX data referring to three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). The findings showed that in the future climate, the sediment yield at the basin scale might change by 24–44% for a single heavy storm in the middle of the current century.

Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil

Abstract In basins with multiple water uses, it is possible a conflict over water use may occur. This probability increases under a water scarcity scenario. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible impact of climate change on water availability in this type of basin, to support the decision-making of its users. The Ribeirão do Cipó is an example of a Brazilian watershed susceptible to this situation. Besides having poor hydrological data, it is used for public water supply, electricity generation and recreation. The present work developed a methodology for estimating water availability impacted by climate change, which was particularly applied to this watershed. The methodology consisted of feeding the rainfall–runoff hydrological model called soil moisture accounting procedure with precipitation and evapotranspiration data projected by the Eta-CPTEC regional climate model and nested to three global climate models. The outputs methods were obtained in terms of average monthly flow, for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Despite the small amount of hydrological data available on the basin, the results were similar to those of the methods used as reference, thus demonstrating that the methodology used can be an alternative in estimating flow for climate change scenarios.

An Economy-Climate Model for Quantitatively Projecting the Impact of Future Climate Change and Its Application

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

Analysis of drought patterns in the Tano river basin of Ghana

The objective of this study is to analyze drought patterns in the Tano River Basin (TRB) of Ghana using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Precipitation data from 1981 to 2019 for the TRB was accessed from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), extracted into time Series using Python to four locations within the basin and used for the analysis together with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) POWER (Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource) Temperature data. Anderson-Darling test was performed to check for the normality of the precipitation. Two separate station data sets from TAHMO and Earth Observation Research Innovation Centre (EORIC) were used to validate the CHIRPS data. The Scaler Index (SI) from the two data sets are respectively 0.383 and 0.016. This indicates the CHIRPS data extracted is sufficiently accurate. The SPI and RDI on the time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months were calculated using the Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) software and characterized into the magnitude, duration, and severity of the drought. Regression analysis was performed to compare RDI and SPI values. The results show that the coefficient of regression R2 is 0.9789, 0.9689 and 0.8799 for 1, 6 and 12 months respectively. This indicates a stronger correlation between SPI and RDI values. However, R2 is observed to decreases with increasing time scale, which means for shorter time scales, SPI and RDI are more similar than for longer time scales. To further examine the possible impacts of climate change on the drought profile of the basin, the Mann-Kendall trend test was conducted to compare the trends in SPI and RDI for 1, 6 and 12 timescales. Apart from RDI 6 for Tanoso which recorded a decrease in trend of – 0.17 as against 0.14 of SPI 6, all other timescales recorded an increase in trend for RDI as compared to SPI. Although most of these increases in trend is not significant at 10% significance level, a trend of 1.95 and 1.71 of RDI 1 for Buako and Sepremboi respectively were significant compared to that of SPI 1 for same stations. These increases in trend of RDI as compared to SPI suggests the possible impact of climate change since RDI estimation takes into consideration potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is a factor of temperature. This could have negative implications on agricultural production and drinking water supply within the basin considering that the basin solely relies on surface water for crop production and drinking water supply.

A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches

CONTEXT:Cotton is one of the most widely planted fiber crops in the world. Its growth, development, and yield are influenced by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, temperature increases, and seasonal rainfall patterns. However, due to differences in research methods (such as crop models, climate models, and climate scenarios), there are uncertainties in the magnitude and direction of the impact of future climate change on cotton yields in existing studies. OBJECTIVETo comprehensively assess the potential impact of climate change and adaptation on yieldand analyze the associated uncertainties, 27 published studies (including 1353 samples) were used to establish a meta database of changes in future cotton yield. METHODSThe responses of cotton relative yield change to changes in mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentration were studied using local polynomial (Loess) regression in a full dataset. A linear mixed-effect model was then used to explore the quantitative relationship between them in a restricted dataset. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSUsing the established full dataset, we found that when the average temperature exceeded 4.3 °C, or the average precipitation decreased or increased too much (>200%), the simulated cotton yield decreased. Elevated CO2 concentrations and appropriate management measures could alleviate the negative impact of climate change. By establishing a linear mixed-effect model, we found that temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration changes, adaptive measures, study area, climate models, and climate scenarios had significant impacts on cotton yield change. For every 1 °C increase in average temperature, the cotton yield decreased by 1.64%. For every 1% increase in precipitation and 1 ppm increase in CO2 concentration, cotton yield increased by 0.09% and 0.05%, respectively. Cotton yield under adaptation measures was 8.97% higher than without any adaptation. SIGNIFICANCEThe first systematic meta-analysis of the impact of climate change on cotton yield in major cotton-planting regionswas conducted herein. The findings provide new information for policies related to the impact of climate change and enhance our understanding of the future resilience of the cotton system.

Assessment of probable groundwater changes under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios through the wavelet–GEP model

The main objective of this research was to evaluate the possible impact of climate change on groundwater levels in the Tasuj Plain, Iran. To accomplish this, the values of precipitation for a near future period was projected through four general circulation models (GCM). Then, the groundwater level variations through the genetic expression programming (GEP) model were evaluated. The projection results indicated that the average annual precipitation with 33.55 mm in the base period would decline to 20.51, 20.11, and 19.14 mm under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. The values of the determination coefficient range from 0.92 to 0.99; the root mean square error between 0.12 and 0.61, and mean absolute error from 0.08 to 0.54 showed that in the forecasting of groundwater level through the GEP model, all models have acceptable results. The evaluation of groundwater level simulation demonstrated that the developed model through the precipitation and previous groundwater level performs better. Prediction of groundwater level for a future period based on climate change scenarios indicated that the average groundwater level in Tasuj Plain at the beginning of the period would experience a gradual reduction and would then increase very slightly to the end of the period. Overall, it was found that the declining precipitation under climate change has no significant impacts on the groundwater level in the Tasuj Plain, and other parameters like anthropogenic activities could be the primary reason for groundwater depletion.

Climate Change-Enhanced Cyanobacteria Domination in Lake Kinneret: A Retrospective Overview

The objective of this study is re-evaluation of the long-term record of limnological parameters in Lake Kinneret (1970–2018) and its drainage basin (1940–2018) aimed at an indication of the possible impact of climate change on water quality in Lake Kinneret. The methodological approach is based on indication of significant changes, of temperature increase, decline in rainfall, causing a reduction in river discharges, and lake water inflows. These climatological changes were accompanied by a reduction in nitrogen and a slight increase in phosphorus in the lake Epilimnion. The outcome was Epilimnetic Nitrogen deficiency and Phosphorus sufficiency, which enhanced domination replacement of Peridinium spp. by Cyanobacterial. We concluded sequel suggested climate change affected water quality deterioration in Lake Kinneret.

Phenological change modelling for selected Himalayan medicinal herbs using herbarium records: A case study

Regarding the effects of warming on phenology, essentially that climate warming is advancing vegetation phenology around the globe, and case studies of specific species/regions work to gauge this impact. Thus, we attempted to demonstrate phenological patterns of selected 4 alpine/sub-alpine and 4 temperate medicinal herbs based on higher medicinal value of Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) using total 654 herbarium records and applied Generalized Additive Model (GAM) as non-normal and non-linear application. The GAM demonstrated an advancement in the flowering time for alpine/sub-alpine species (Arnebia benthamii, Meconopsis aculeata, Podophyllum hexandrum) and temperate species (Delphinium denudatum and Dioscorea deltoidea), while delayed flowering for Swertia cordata (p < 0.001). Combining the herbarium records, the model significantly projected advancement in flowering time (21–25 days) over the last 100 years only for alpine/sub-alpine species (p < 0.0001). However, the relationship between flowering time and warming winter temperature was predicted advancement in flowering time for alpine/sub-alpine species (6–10 days per 1 °C) and temperate species (8–11 days per 1 °C). The results reveal that long-term herbarium records may be considered as a useful tool for predicting the possible impact of climate change on plant phenology in the IHR using GAM approach.

Assessment of water resources of the Ukrainian rivers according to the average statistical models of climate change trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period of 2021 to 2050

The relevance of the presented work is due to the necessity of assessment of a possible state of Ukrainian water resources in the 21st century according to climate change scenarios in order to justify the strategy of economic development.&#x0D; The research object is presented by water resources of the Ukrainian rivers.&#x0D; The research focuses on the effects of global warming on Ukrainian water resources in 2021-2050.&#x0D; The work aims at assessing a possible impact of climate change on Ukrainian water resources in the 21st century, using the data from the climate change trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period of 2021 to 2050.&#x0D; Calculations of water resources over the period of 2021 to 2050 are performed according to the average statistical model from the ensemble consisting of 14 climatic models of the CORDEX experiment for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 trajectories. Water resources are assessed based on the Climate-runoff model developed by OSENU. The result of such calculations is the evaluation of moisture and heat resources, as well as water resources in the natural conditions of their formation. Natural (undisturbed by water management) average long-term annual runoff determined by the meteorological data is usually called "a climatic runoff". The accuracy of climatic runoff calculations using the map of isolines is ±10%. The calculations are performed in the grid nodes. The geographical location of the selected nodes corresponds to the location of meteorological stations the total number of which is 115.&#x0D; Evaluation of heat, moisture and water resources changes was performed by comparing the calculated values and the basic ones. The climatic runoff for the period of observations before 1989 is thought to be basic.&#x0D; According to the average statistical model of the RCP4.5 trajectory over the period of 2021 to 2050, the expansion of the semi-arid zone and insufficient humidification zone to the north is to be expected (when compared to the basic period). The insufficient humidification zone will expand to the northwest displacing the sufficient humidification zone. The reduction of water resources will reach to minus 40-50% in the south of the country and to 0% - minus 10% in the north. The area of water resources growth will be preserved in the Ukrainian Carpathians.&#x0D; Comparing to the RCP4.5 the RCP8.5 trajectory is considered to be more “rigid” in relation to the state of Ukrainian water resources. The reduction of water resources will occur on the nearly entire territory, except Bukovyna, due to the increase of arid climate. Water resources will decrease to minus 50-60% in the south and to minus 30% in the north.&#x0D; Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 trajectories offer a forecast of water resources that is unfavourable for the development of Ukrainian economy, as it will cause expansion of both semi-arid and insufficient humidification zones. This will increase the water resources shortage in Ukraine.