Abstract
Abstract In basins with multiple water uses, it is possible a conflict over water use may occur. This probability increases under a water scarcity scenario. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible impact of climate change on water availability in this type of basin, to support the decision-making of its users. The Ribeirão do Cipó is an example of a Brazilian watershed susceptible to this situation. Besides having poor hydrological data, it is used for public water supply, electricity generation and recreation. The present work developed a methodology for estimating water availability impacted by climate change, which was particularly applied to this watershed. The methodology consisted of feeding the rainfall–runoff hydrological model called soil moisture accounting procedure with precipitation and evapotranspiration data projected by the Eta-CPTEC regional climate model and nested to three global climate models. The outputs methods were obtained in terms of average monthly flow, for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Despite the small amount of hydrological data available on the basin, the results were similar to those of the methods used as reference, thus demonstrating that the methodology used can be an alternative in estimating flow for climate change scenarios.
Highlights
The greenhouse effect is a natural process which occurs in the world due to the absorption of solar radiation by gases present in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2)
Considering the importance attributed by the basin committee to issues related to water availability and extreme events, the history of conflicts resulting from the use in the studied site as well as the repetition of this problem in other regions, the purpose of this study was found
The capture and other processes up to distribution are carried out by the Municipal Department of Water and Sewage of Poços de Caldas (DMAE), while the operation of the reservoir and hydroelectric plants is under the responsibility of the Municipal Department of Electricity of Poços de Caldas (DME) (Reis, 2014)
Summary
The greenhouse effect is a natural process which occurs in the world due to the absorption of solar radiation by gases present in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2). The planet is suffering an additional warming as a result of the emission of greenhouse gases by human activities. The proportionality between the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the average global temperature is an indication of warming (Arrhenius, 1896; Revelle & Suess, 1957; Tucci, 2005; Callendar, 2007; Silva, 2015). In addition to the increase in global temperature, climate change causes changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration regimes which in turn influence water availability in river basins (Tucci, 2005)
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