Modelling the Climate Change Impact On Monthly Runoff in Central Slovakia

Abstract

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the possible impact of climate change on the runoff regime of the Hron River basin up to the Banská Bystrica profile until the year 2100. The daily rainfall-runoff model Hron which was developed at the Department of Land and Water Resources Management, SUT Bratislava, was used. The model was calibrated on a period between 1981-1995 and validated on 1996-2010 For the simulation of the possible impact of climate change, the KNMI and MPI climate change scenarios, which illustrate changes in daily precipitation, daily air temperature and the average air humidity in the river basin for future periods, were used. In conclusion the average monthly flows for the future time horizons of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 with a reference period (1981-2010) were compared. Based on the results of the two hydrological models and the two different climate change scenarios, we can expect an increase in long-term mean monthly discharges for the winter and spring periods and a decrease for the summer period.