Assessment of probable groundwater changes under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios through the wavelet–GEP model

Abstract

The main objective of this research was to evaluate the possible impact of climate change on groundwater levels in the Tasuj Plain, Iran. To accomplish this, the values of precipitation for a near future period was projected through four general circulation models (GCM). Then, the groundwater level variations through the genetic expression programming (GEP) model were evaluated. The projection results indicated that the average annual precipitation with 33.55 mm in the base period would decline to 20.51, 20.11, and 19.14 mm under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. The values of the determination coefficient range from 0.92 to 0.99; the root mean square error between 0.12 and 0.61, and mean absolute error from 0.08 to 0.54 showed that in the forecasting of groundwater level through the GEP model, all models have acceptable results. The evaluation of groundwater level simulation demonstrated that the developed model through the precipitation and previous groundwater level performs better. Prediction of groundwater level for a future period based on climate change scenarios indicated that the average groundwater level in Tasuj Plain at the beginning of the period would experience a gradual reduction and would then increase very slightly to the end of the period. Overall, it was found that the declining precipitation under climate change has no significant impacts on the groundwater level in the Tasuj Plain, and other parameters like anthropogenic activities could be the primary reason for groundwater depletion.