Abstract
In the era of global climate change, extreme weather events frequently occur. Many kinds of agro-meteorological disasters that are closely related to environmental conditions (such as sunshine hours, temperature, precipitation, etc.) are witnessed all over the word. However, which factor dominates winter wheat production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River remains unresolved. Quantifying the key limiting meteorological factor could deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on crops and then help us to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. However, the relative role of precipitation, sunshine hours and maximum daily temperature in limiting winter wheat yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is not clear and difficult to decouple. In this study, we used statistical methods to quantify the effect of precipitation, maximum temperature and sunshine hours extremes on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield based on long time-series, county-level yield data and a daily meteorological dataset. According to the winter wheat growing season period (October of the sowing year to May of the following year), anomaly values of cumulative precipitation, average sunshine hours and average daily maximum temperature are calculated. With the range of −3 σ to 3 σ of anomaly and an interval of 0.5 σ (σ is the corresponding standard deviation of cumulative precipitation, mean maximum temperature and mean sunshine hours, respectively), the corresponding weighted yield loss ratio (WYLR) represents the impact of this kind of climate condition on yield. The results show that excessive rainfall is the key limiting meteorological factor that can reduce winter wheat yield to −18.4% in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while it is only −0.24% in extreme dry conditions. Moreover, yield loss under extreme temperature and sunshine hours are negligible (−0.66% for extremely long sunshine hours and −8.29% for extreme cold). More detailed analysis results show that the impact of excessive rainfall on winter wheat yield varies regionally, as it causes severe yield reductions in the Huai River basin and the middle to southern part with low elevation and rainy areas of the study area, while for drier areas in the Hubei province, there is even an increase in yield. Our results disclosed with observational evidence that excessive precipitation is the key meteorological limiting factor leading to the reduction in winter wheat yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The knowledge of the possible impact of climate change on winter wheat yield in the study area allows policy-makers, agronomists and economists to better forecast a plan that differs from the past. In addition, our results emphasized the need for better understanding and further process-based model simulation of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.
Highlights
Increasing frequency of extreme climate is likely to occur due to continued warming of the climate, including extremes of precipitation and temperature [1,2]
The results show that the impact of winter wheat yield reduction is mainly related to precipitation (−0.46 *, −0.45 * and −0.33 * for Anhui, Jiangsu and Hubei province, respectively) and, to a lesser extent, regulated by sunshine hours (−0.23, −0.10, and 0.45 *) for Anhui, Jiangsu and Hubei province, respectively
It has been proven that the positive effect of longer sunshine hours on winter wheat yield would be negated by excessive rainfall during the early seeding stage [36]
Summary
Increasing frequency of extreme climate is likely to occur due to continued warming of the climate, including extremes of precipitation and temperature [1,2]. In the context of the rapid increase in the global population, quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on crop production is of great significance to ensure a stable supply of food [8,9]. A large number of studies have shown that climate extremes related to temperature and precipitation, such as heat, cold and drought, could severely reduce crop production from regional to global scale [10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18]. Adverse weather conditions will further exacerbate the gap between the rapidly increasing population and the limited food supply. It is necessary to understand the sensitivity and tolerance of existing agricultural systems to extreme climates [19]
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