Positive Phase Research Articles

Characterising continental shelf waves and their drivers for the southeast coast of Australia

Low-lying, developed areas in New South Wales (NSW) are susceptible to extended periods of inundation, which cannot be attributed to tides or local synoptic conditions. This inundation is often associated with relatively small water level anomalies but is persistent enough to damage the built environment. Due to their long duration, continental shelf waves (CSWs) are one of the mechanisms of concern associated with extended coastal inundation. These waves are caused by a range of synoptic disturbances occurring along the mid-latitudes and they travel anticlockwise along the coast (in the southern hemisphere), reaching low latitudes of NSW. This study investigates the characteristics of CSWs that travel along the NSW coast, their generation and propagation mechanisms in relation to local synoptic and oceanic conditions, and their potential modulation by two major large-scale climate modes: the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We used time series of daily tidal residuals from 1994 to 2015 from nine locations along the NSW coast and used a peak over threshold approach to identify 29 waves which had an average amplitude of 0.3 m, mean period of 15 days (ranging from 8 to 20 days), and a highest occurrence in autumn and winter. The generation of CSWs is tightly coupled to the subpolar jet, the belt of westerlies, and the subtropical ridge, confirming that large-scale atmospheric circulation is a key element in the generation and propagation of CSWs. Through analyses of the inverse barometer, we found that CSWs propagate freely up to the north coast of NSW, independent of local weather conditions. We also found that CSWs are more frequent during the positive phase of SAM combined with La Niña and during neutral SAM combined with El Niño events. This study provides the longest database to date of CSWs for NSW, alongside new insights into their characteristics and timing and frequency of occurrence. Importantly, this information can be used to monitor their occurrence and forecast their impact, including the number of days taken for a wave to reach different locations along the NSW coast.

Variability Assessment of Global Extreme Coastal Sea Levels Using Altimetry Data

This study assesses the variability of coastal extreme sea levels globally by utilizing nearly three decades of along-track, multi-mission satellite altimetry data. An altimetry-based global coastal database of the non-tidal residual sea level component has been produced. The climate variability of extremes is modeled through a parametric, non-stationary statistical model. This model captures intra-annual, inter-annual and long-term variations in non-tidal residual return levels. Comparisons with tide gauge data demonstrate the ability of altimetry data to capture the variability of coastal extreme sea levels. Our findings reveal a greater complexity in the monthly variability patterns of non-tidal residual extremes in tropical latitudes, often exhibiting multiple storm periods, contrasting with coasts in extratropical latitudes, which are mostly controlled by a winter–summer pattern. This study also highlights the significant influence of established climate circulation patterns on sea level extremes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation pattern leads to increases of over 25% in non-tidal residual return levels in Northwestern Europe with respect to a neutral phase. Furthermore, return levels in the western coast of Central America could be 50% higher during El Niño compared to La Niña. Our results show a robust increasing trend in non-tidal residual return levels along most global coastlines. A comparative analysis shows that variations during the 1995–2020 period were primarily driven by intra-annual variations.

Existence and classification of positive solutions for coupled purely critical Kirchhoff system

We study the nonlinear coupled Kirchhoff system with purely Sobolev critical exponent. By using appropriate transformation, we get one equivalent system involving a critical Schrödinger system and an algebraic system. Through solving the critical Schrödinger system with a corresponding algebraic system, under suitable conditions we obtain the existence and classification of positive ground states for the Kirchhoff system in dimensions 3 and 4. Furthermore, for the degenerate case, we give a complete classification of positive ground states for the Kirchhoff system in any dimension. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to give classification results for the ground states of Kirchhoff systems. The results in this paper partially extend and complement the main results established by Lü and Peng [Existence and asymptotic behavior of vector solutions for coupled nonlinear Kirchhoff-type system, J. Differ. Equ. 263 (2017) 8947–8978] considering the linearly coupled Kirchhoff system with subcritical exponent and some partial results established by Chen and Zou [Positive least energy solutions and phase separation for coupled Schrödinger equations with critical exponent, Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. 205 (2012) 515–551; Positive least energy solutions and phase separation for coupled Schrödinger equations with critical exponent: higher dimensional case, Calc. Var. Partial Differ. Equ. 52 (2015) 423–467], where the authors considered the coupled purely critical Schrödinger system.

Abstract CT152: FURTHER: A global study to evaluate furmonertinib in patients with EGFR mutant NSCLC including uncommon EGFR mutations

Abstract Background: Furmonertinib (AST2818) is an oral, highly brain-penetrant, and broadly active mutation-selective epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor engineered for broad activity and selectivity across EGFR mutations (mts) (Musib et al., NACLC 2022). Furmonertinib is approved in China for first-line advanced NSCLC with EGFR Ex19del or L858R mts based on the positive Phase 3 study (FURLONG) versus gefitinib. Furmonertinib has also demonstrated promising interim efficacy and safety in patients (pts) with NSCLC with EGFR exon 20 insertion (ex20ins) mts with a confirmed overall response rate (ORR) of 78.6% (n=28) by blinded independent central review (BICR) with a preliminary median duration of response (DoR) of 15.2 months in the front-line setting (FAVOUR study; see Han et al., WCLC 2023). Furmonertinib recently obtained FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for the treatment of pts with advanced NSCLC with EGFR ex20ins mts. P-loop and αC-helix Compressing (PACC) mts represent another subset of uncommon EGFR mts (Robichaux et al., 2021) that are similar to ex20ins mts in narrowing the drug-binding pocket; including G719X, S768I, E709X, L747X, V774M. Preclinical data indicating that furmonertinib is potent in models harboring EGFR PACC mts will be presented at this meeting (Nilsson et al., Abstract #4174). Developing efficacious, well-tolerated, and CNS-penetrant medicines for NSCLC pts with EGFR ex20ins mts and PACC mts remains an unmet need. Methods: FURTHER (FURMO-002) is the first global trial evaluating furmonertinib in NSCLC pts with EGFR and HER2 mts in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. FURTHER is a phase 1b, open-label, multicenter study in which pts will be treated orally with furmonertinib daily. For Stage 1 dose-escalation, the primary endpoint is incidence and severity of adverse events, including dose limiting toxicities and has been completed. For Stage 2 dose expansion, approximately 120 pts will be enrolled across 4 expansion cohorts. Stage 2 Cohorts 1-3 dose expansion cohorts will enroll pts with previously treated, locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC pts with either EGFR ex20ins mts, HER2 ex20ins mts, or EGFR activating mts, respectively. Cohorts 1-3 allow enrollment of pts with prior EGFR or HER2-directed therapy. Stage 2 Cohort 4 will enroll EGFR TKI-naïve NSCLC pts with EGFR PACC mts. Key inclusion criteria include documented EGFR or HER2 mts by local testing and measurable disease per RECIST v1.1. Stage 2 primary endpoint is ORR using RECIST v1.1. Key secondary endpoints include progression-free survival and overall survival. Stage 2 enrollment is ongoing. Clinical trial information: NCT05364073. Citation Format: Xiuning Le, Alexander Spira, Shirish Gadgeel, Yan Yu, Yanqiu Zhao, Ying Cheng, Jonathan Riess, Oscar Juan-Vidal, Bo Gao, Kiyotaka Yoh, Martin Forster, Satoru Kitazono, Hidetoshi Hayashi, David Planchard, Yong Jiang, Jack Huang, Nichole Baio, Marcin Kowanetz, Shirley Wang, William Leung, Jerry Y. Hsu, Jie Wang. FURTHER: A global study to evaluate furmonertinib in patients with EGFR mutant NSCLC including uncommon EGFR mutations [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(7_Suppl):Abstract nr CT152.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Decadal Variability of the Upper Subtropical‐Tropical Atlantic Ocean

AbstractIn the northeastern tropical Atlantic, a region of high potential vorticity (PV) determines the size of the exchange window for the interior thermocline flow of the subtropical cell via its variations in strength and extent. Variability of this PV barrier has the potential to impact the ventilation of the tropical Atlantic on decadal timescales. Here, the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the PV barrier related to isopycnals within the thermocline of the subtropical‐tropical Atlantic Ocean is assessed from Argo observations for the time period of 2006–2022. Relative to the negative NAO phase (2009–2010), during the positive NAO phase (2014–2019), the North Atlantic subtropical high and the northeast trades are intensified. Satellite‐derived wind stress curl shows increased upwelling/downwelling on the equatorward/poleward side of the trade wind zone, respectively. In the subtropical‐tropical Atlantic, a symmetric pattern of isopycnal heave is observed: rising isopycnals within 20°N and 20°S and sinking poleward of that. With rising isopycnals, the PV barrier in the northeastern tropical Atlantic becomes stronger. Analyses of geostrophic velocities and the Sverdrup streamfunction show that during the positive NAO phase there are increased equatorward velocities at thermocline level along the western boundary and reduced velocities through the interior as a result of intensified northeast trades and therefore a strengthened PV barrier. Intensified trades lead to enhanced subduction of thermocline waters and, independent of that, to a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent transport as observed at the mooring site at 0°, 23°W, likely via the pulling effect of the subtropical cells.

Patterns of collective organization associated with positive and negative momentum experiences in football

Purpose: Momentum experiences in sport competition are known to be associated with performance-related behavioural changes. In addition to effort exertion, interpersonal synchronization in small team sports has been identified as a behavioural correlate of momentum experiences. However, there is a lack of research on collective organization related to momentum in larger team sports. The present study aimed to identify and compare patterns of collective organization in football according to positive and negative momentum experiences in the form of gradual and significant score variations. Method(s): We analysed expert coaches' video-based descriptions of the collective organization of high level football teams that experienced positive and negative momentum phases during international matches. Results: The main results show that positive momentum phases were associated with forward-located and compact team block, as well as with players' runs more often directed towards the opposing goal. Negative momentum phases were associated with backward-located and stretched team block, as well as with frequent backward runs and block-disconnected individual actions. Conclusion(s): These initial findings regarding the relationships between momentum experiences and collective organization in team sports pave the way for the training of skills for early detection of momentum phases and skills for reacting appropriately to their onset.

Wideband Low-Profile Fabry-Perot Cavity Antenna with Metasurface

A novel Fabry-Perot cavity (FPC) antenna with metasurface is presented, which can achieve broad bandwidth and low profile. Traditional FPC antennas, with rectangular microstrip antennas as feeds, have limited impedance bandwidth and struggle to make a compromise in the gain bandwidth and maximum gain value. To obtain wide bandwidth, the FPC antenna proposed in this paper utilizes a feed antenna loaded with parasitic patches. To widen impedance bandwidth and gain bandwidth and reduce the profile, a positive phase gradient partially reflective surface (PRS) and an artificial magnetic conductor (AMC) are located above and below the feed antenna, respectively. The phase property of the PRS and AMC also brings in a more smooth gain value curve. To further increase gain values, four metal reflector plates are located around the proposed antenna. The overall dimension of the antenna is 2.5λ0×2.5λ0×0.25λ0 (λ0 is the free space wavelength at 7.5 GHz). Simulated results show that the resonant cavity antenna proposed in this letter exhibits an impedance bandwidth of 13.3% (7–8 GHz) and a 3 dB gain bandwidth of 14.3% (7.02–8.10 GHz). The maximum gain in the whole operating band is 14.5 dBi. The measured results are in good agreement with the simulated ones.

Study on the Earth-Covered Magazine Models under the Internal Explosion

The use of earth-covered magazines (ECMs) is increasingly prevalent in protective engineering due to their concealment and cost-effectiveness. To explore the optimal thickness of earth covering for ECMs, scaled model tests were conducted under explosive charges equivalent to 30 kilograms of TNT. The resulting overpressure outside the model in the 180° direction was measured. Subsequently, computational analyses were conducted employing LS-DYNA software to examine these experimental findings. The findings indicate that increasing the thickness of the rear soil can mitigate peak overpressure, delay the air shock wave’s arrival time, and reduce the impulse of the positive phase. The numerical calculations closely align with experimental data, with peak overpressure deviation remaining under 10%. The shock wave initially impacts the top of the model before reaching the rear, with soil scattering more pronounced in the 90° direction compared to the 180° direction. Furthermore, an analysis of soil energy absorption rate variation was conducted based on energy conservation principles. These results provide valuable insights for optimizing the design and construction of ECMs.

Recent autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic enhanced by summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation

Recent rapid Arctic sea ice loss was documented as combined results from anthropogenic forcing and climate system internal variability. However, the role of internal variability is not well understood. Here, we propose that the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO), an intrinsic atmospheric mode featuring out-of-phase variations in upper-tropospheric temperatures between Asia and the North Pacific, is one driver for autumn sea ice variability in the eastern Arctic. The positive summer APO favors warming of the mid-latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. This warming persists to autumn and in turn triggers strong anticyclonic anomalies over the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas and weak lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomalies over the East Siberian Sea, enhancing moisture transport into the eastern Arctic. Such changes consequently increase lower-tropospheric humidity, downwelling longwave radiation, and surface air temperature in the eastern Arctic, thereby melting sea ice. Hence, a recent tendency of the summer APO towards the positive phase accelerates autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic.

Modulation of the cold tongue mode (CTM) in tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific during 1975–2021

The cold tongue mode (CTM) in the tropical Pacific enhanced with the global warming in the recent decades. Here, we show that the change of oceanic thermal condition and atmospheric circulation plays a critical role in the tropical cyclones (TCs) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP). The frequency of TCs in the WNP decreases with its northwest movement, when the CTM transitions from its negative phase in 1975–1997(P1) to positive phase in 1998–2021 (P2). Intercomparison of the TC activities between P1 and P2, we found that the main reason responsible for decreasing of TC genesis is from reducing of meridional and zonal heat transportation. And the northwest movement of TC position is driven by the heat increasing at the western and northern boundary areas. In addition, the northwest movement of TC is dominated by the atmospheric circulation associated with local Walker circulation and Hadley cell.

Kelvin Wave Propagation over a Sloping Interface and Relationships with El Niño Southern Oscillation

Internal Kelvin Wave (KW) propagation is studied about variations in the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Pacific. Temperature and Salinity (TS) observations have been used to define the vertical structure of the ocean about the propagation properties of KWs. Changes in the vertical structure of the water column determine consistent zonal variations in the wave velocity, with values varying, roughly, from 1.8 to 2.6 m/s. The authors document that KWs are formed regularly at the western boundary of the tropical Pacific, but, in these cases, never overcome the dateline. Occasionally, KWs are generated in the region comprised between 170oE and 170oW, and, on all these occasions, a positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño) event is recorded. A model, named Sloping Interface Model (SIM), is proposed to relate changes in the pycnocline depth, associated with transiting KWs, and SST anomaly variations. In the SIM, whose equations are consistent with the Recharge/Discharge paradigm, the ocean is described as a two-layer system and the climatological state, represented by a sloping pycnocline, is maintained by a constant easterly wind stress. Using the SIM and coherently with the Recharge/Discharge paradigm, the authors show that changes in the averaged SSTA over El Niño 3, 3.4 and 4 regions are nearly perfectly correlated to pycnocline displacements due to transiting KWs.

Synergistic effect of boreal autumn SST over the tropical and South Pacific and winter NAO on winter precipitation in the southern Europe

We find a positive phase of meridional tripole pattern of boreal autumn sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical and South Pacific (TSPT+ ) has a synergistic effect with winter negative NAO (NAO−) on the amplitude and occurrence of winter precipitation in southern Europe (SEWP). This synergistic effect is attributed to the linear superposition and nonlinear effect of winter NAO− and preceding autumn TSPT+ . The autumn TSPT+ can persist into winter, and the winter TSPT+ with NAO− can stimulate a greater amount of Rossby wave energy propagating to the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) region than without NAO−, and thereby synergistically regulating circulation with winter NAO−. Thus, winter NAO− and autumn TSPT+ have a synergistic effect on the northwest-southeast trending positive-negative-positive winter circulation over the NAE region. Driven by the intensified mean circulation, water vapor transports and storm activity over southern Europe are evidently strong, which is in favor of SEWP formation.

The linkage between wintertime sea ice drift and atmospheric circulation in an Arctic ice-ocean coupled simulation

By analyzing an Arctic ice-ocean coupled simulation, we study the linkage between wintertime sea ice drift and atmospheric circulation, and interpret the driving force terms in the sea ice dynamic equation. Sea ice drift anomaly is featured by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) gyre when regulated by negative (positive) phase of Arctic Oscillation with positive (negative) phase of Arctic Dipole, and a quasi-meridional stream from Chukchi-Beaufort (Barents-Kara) Seas to Barents-Kara (Chukchi-Beaufort) Seas when regulated by positive (negative) phase of Arctic Oscillation with positive (negative) phase of Arctic Dipole. Sea ice drift anomaly, when regulated by the mode alone, resembles spatial pattern of leading atmospheric mode. Decomposing sea ice dynamical equation shows that wind-ice stress dominates sea ice drift in areas away from islands and continental coastlines, ocean-ice stress acts as a resistant power to partly cancel the wind-ice stress in these areas, while in the coastal areas such as the thick multiyear ice zone north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the wind-ice and ocean-ice stresses are small, the balance exists between sea surface height potential gradient and internal ice stress divergence. Developing more sophisticated internal ice stress expression in ice model is of great important to correctly project future sea ice change for the ice modeling community.

Lagged effect of Southern Annular Mode on chlorophyll-a in the mid-latitude South Pacific and Indian Oceans

This study investigates the influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations and the underlying mechanisms governing their associated environmental variations in the mid-latitude (35–50° S) ocean from 1998 to 2021. The intensification of westerly winds during positive SAM phases influences meridional water transport and mixed layer depth (MLD), which are both critical factors that affect surface nutrient availability. A marked contrast in the relationship between the meridional current anomaly and the SAM was observed, with reduced northward transport of nutrient-rich water in regions north of 50° S during positive SAM phases. This reduction could be attributed to the poleward migration of the westerly winds, which impeded the meridional current from reaching the mid-latitudes. The relationship between SAM and MLD south of 50° S was positive whereas that in the mid-latitude eastern (60–110° E) South Indian Ocean and eastern (90–140° W) South Pacific Ocean was negative or weak. The immediate effect of a more positive SAM on Chl-a in the mid-latitude ocean was reduced productivity caused by enhanced nutrient depletion. However, in the mid-latitude eastern South Pacific Ocean, the northward migration of the zonal mean meridional current anomaly closely aligned with the lagged correlation pattern between SAM variability and Chl-a over time, suggesting that the delayed northward transport of nutrient-rich waters may partially counterbalance the immediate effects of the SAM on ocean productivity. This mechanism was not present in the mid-latitude eastern South Indian Ocean, implying that future climate change may variably affect these regions. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering regional differences and temporal lags when evaluating the influence of SAM variability on ocean productivity and nutrient dynamics in the context of climate change.

Interannual Variability of August Precipitation in China Associated With the Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly

AbstractThrough observational analysis and atmospheric simulation experiments, the relationship between sea ice in the region of South Pole and August precipitation in China was determined. Results indicate that the leading mode of August precipitation in China is significantly correlated with July sea ice concentration (SIC) in South Pole, specifically in eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Typically, the SIC growth is followed by positive rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Northeast China (NEC), while South China (SC) is under the control of negative rainfall anomalies. Precisely, owing to the temporal persistence of sea ice in the South Polar region from May to August, sea ice anomalies exert a strong influence on August atmospheric stability in EIO of Southern Hemisphere via regulating turbulent heat flux and air temperature anomalies. As SIC increases, the atmospheric circulation in horizontal exhibits the characteristics of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) positive phase, affecting the zonal wind anomalies. Subsequently, the anomalous circulation with a barotropic structure propagates to Australia and the East Asian via the strengthened vertical meridional cells and zonal winds. Moreover, numerical simulations confirm that due to the growth of South Polar sea ice in EIO, abnormal cyclone and anticyclone appear over North China and SC respectively, together with the moisture converging anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of YRB, and diverging anomalies in SC. Accordingly, these atmospheric circulation anomalies triggered by Antarctic sea ice conducive to a wet (dry) August in northern (southern) China.

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Abstract. Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

Efficacy and safety of bosutinib in patients treated with prior imatinib and/or dasatinib and/or nilotinib: Subgroup analyses from the phase 4 BYOND study

The BYOND study evaluated the efficacy and safety of bosutinib 500 mg once daily in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) resistant/intolerant to prior tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). These post-hoc analyses assessed the efficacy and safety of bosutinib by resistance or intolerance to prior TKIs (imatinib-resistant vs dasatinib/nilotinib-resistant vs TKI-intolerant), and cross-intolerance between bosutinib and prior TKIs (imatinib, dasatinib, nilotinib), in patients with Philadelphia chromosome–positive chronic phase CML. Data are reported after ≥3 years’ follow-up. Of 156 patients with Philadelphia chromosome–positive chronic phase CML, 53 were imatinib-resistant, 29 dasatinib/nilotinib-resistant, and 74 intolerant to all prior TKIs; cumulative complete cytogenetic response rates at any time were 83.7%, 61.5%, and 86.8%, and cumulative major molecular response rates at any time were 72.9%, 40.7%, and 82.4%, respectively. Of 141, 95, and 79 patients who received prior imatinib, dasatinib, and nilotinib, 64 (45.4%), 71 (74.7%), and 60 (75.9%) discontinued the respective TKI due to intolerance; of these, 2 (3.1%), 5 (7.0%), and 0 had cross-intolerance with bosutinib. The response rates observed in TKI-resistant and TKI-intolerant patients, and low cross-intolerance between bosutinib and prior TKIs, further support bosutinib use for patients with Philadelphia chromosome–positive chronic phase CML resistant/intolerant to prior TKIs. Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02228382

Historical catastrophic floods at the southern edge of the Atacama Desert: A multi-archive reconstruction of the Copiapó river extreme events

The last hydrometeorological extreme event that caused large floods in the southern Atacama Desert in March 2015 raised concern about how little was known about the fluvial dynamic of these arid basins. Understanding the response of intermittent and ephemeral rivers in drylands to the present context of global change is critical to preserve the ecological and human systems they support, to sustainably manage their scarce water resources and to develop flood risk management plans. We have studied the instrumental and historical record and explored the potential of the Copiapó River geological record in the comprehension of how extraordinary the 2015 flood was and how its fluvial dynamic relates with global climate oscillations. We have identified 36 flood events that have occurred in the last 400 years: 22 of them have been classified as ordinary rises of the river flow (discharges <30 m3/s), 11 as extraordinary floods in which the damage is confined to areas adjacent to the river (discharges 30–180 m3/s), and only 3 as catastrophic floods (discharges >180 m3/s), including the 2015 flood event. The incorporation of the historical and palaeohydrological data into the flood frequency analysis results in an increase of the magnitude of the flood quantiles in which large flood events occur with an average recurrence interval of 120 years. Most of the flood events were caused by heavy rains that are largely linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation with a superimposed effect of the ENSO. Discharges >30 m3/s, i.e., extraordinary and catastrophic floods, occur with positive phases of the PDO and the ENSO. Further exploration of the fluvial geological record of the Copiapó River will help lengthening to thousands of years the flood record what will help improving communities' resilience by anticipating flood hazards in the current global change context, in which stronger rainfall events modulated by ENSO and ENSO-like conditions are expected.

A Pre‐Monsoon Signal of False Alarms of Indian Monsoon Droughts

AbstractCurrent knowledge suggests a drought Indian monsoon (perhaps a severe one) when the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation each exhibit positive phases (a joint positive phase). For the monsoons, which are exceptions in this regard, we found northeast India often gets excess pre‐monsoon rainfall. Further investigation reveals that this excess pre‐monsoon rainfall is produced by the interaction of the large‐scale circulation associated with the joint phase with the mountains in northeast India. We posit that a warmer troposphere, a consequence of excess rainfall over northeast India, drives a stronger monsoon circulation and enhances monsoon rainfall over central India. Hence, we argue that pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeast India can be used for seasonal monsoon rainfall prediction over central India. Most importantly, its predictive value is at its peak when the Pacific Ocean exhibits a joint positive phase and the threat of extreme drought monsoon looms over India.

Impact of the Eurasian Zonal Circulation on the Interannual Variability of Winter Surface Air Temperature and Subseasonal Temperature Reversal in North China

AbstractThis study focuses on the interannual variability of winter mean surface air temperature (SAT) and subseasonal SAT reversal in North China, which have profound impacts on national life and economic activities. The analysis explores the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of these variations and their relationship with the Eurasian Zonal Circulation (EZ). The findings reveal distinct interdecadal changes in North China’s winter mean SAT, along with a general subseasonal reversal of cold and warm conditions. In comparison to the North Atlantic oscillation/Arctic Oscillation, the EZ has a more significant influence on the interannual variability of winter and subseasonal reversals. Strong EZ years are associated with the weakening of the Siberian High and the Ural Blocking High, causing the East Asian Trough to move eastward, which leads to the retention of cold air from the north and increased SAT in North China. Conversely, weak EZ years exhibit opposite circulation patterns. The winter mean EZ is influenced by preceding autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations (SIC). Reduced autumn SIC results in decreased heat flux and reduced eddy energy, leading to substantial attenuation of the winter storm track across Scandinavia and Western Asia. This attenuation, mediated through the interaction between eddies and mean flow, triggers a slowdown of Eurasian zonal circulation and intensification of the Siberian High. These conditions favor a positive phase of the winter Scandinavia pattern, facilitating the transport of cold Arctic air into North China. Likewise, subseasonal reversals in SIC influence corresponding alterations in the EZ.