Modulation of the cold tongue mode (CTM) in tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific during 1975–2021

Abstract

The cold tongue mode (CTM) in the tropical Pacific enhanced with the global warming in the recent decades. Here, we show that the change of oceanic thermal condition and atmospheric circulation plays a critical role in the tropical cyclones (TCs) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP). The frequency of TCs in the WNP decreases with its northwest movement, when the CTM transitions from its negative phase in 1975–1997(P1) to positive phase in 1998–2021 (P2). Intercomparison of the TC activities between P1 and P2, we found that the main reason responsible for decreasing of TC genesis is from reducing of meridional and zonal heat transportation. And the northwest movement of TC position is driven by the heat increasing at the western and northern boundary areas. In addition, the northwest movement of TC is dominated by the atmospheric circulation associated with local Walker circulation and Hadley cell.