Population Life Tables Research Articles

Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Italy from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model.

The article describes the adaptation of a model to estimate the burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in women aged 50 years and over in Italy between 2010 and 2020. For this purpose, a validated postmenopausal osteoporosis disease model developed for Sweden was adapted to Italy. For each year of the study, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures and deaths. Fracture by site (hip, clinical vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risk of death and subsequent fractures. Model inputs specific to Italy included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of hip fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation). The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women would increase from 3.3 million to 3.7 million between 2010 and 2020 (+14.3%). Assuming unchanged incidence rates by age group over time, the model predicted the overall number of osteoporotic fractures to increase from 285.0 to 335.8 thousand fractures between 2010 and 2020 (+17.8%). The estimated expected increases in hip, vertebral and non-hip non-vertebral fractures were 22.3, 17.2 and 16.3%, respectively. Due to demographic changes, the burden of fractures is expected to increase markedly by 2020.

The impact of life tables adjusted for smoking on the socio-economic difference in net survival for laryngeal and lung cancer.

Background:Net survival is a key measure in cancer control, but estimates for cancers that are strongly associated with smoking may be biased. General population life tables represent background mortality in net survival, but may not adequately reflect the higher mortality experienced by smokers.Methods:Life tables adjusted for smoking were developed, and their impact on net survival and inequalities in net survival for laryngeal and lung cancers was examined.Results:The 5-year net survival estimated with smoking-adjusted life tables was consistently higher than the survival estimated with unadjusted life tables: 7% higher for laryngeal cancer and 1.5% higher for lung cancer. The impact of using smoking-adjusted life tables was more pronounced in affluent patients; the deprivation gap in 5-year net survival for laryngeal cancer widened by 3%, from 11% to 14%.Conclusions:Using smoking-adjusted life tables to estimate net survival has only a small impact on the deprivation gap in survival, even when inequalities are substantial. Adjusting for the higher, smoking-related background mortality did increase the estimates of net survival for all deprivation groups, and may be more important when measuring the public health impact of differences or changes in survival, such as avoidable deaths or crude probabilities of death.

Survival of Men with Prostate Cancer Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy in Ontario

Radical prostatectomy is traditionally reserved for men with at least 10-year life expectancy. Numerous studies show that survival estimates by physicians are inaccurate. We determined how well men undergoing radical prostatectomy for cancer are prognosticated by comparing observed and expected survival. We performed an observational cohort study using population based data sets to identify each man in Ontario, Canada between 1992 and 2011 who was diagnosed with prostate cancer and underwent radical prostatectomy within 6 months. Observed 10-year survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Two expected 10-year survival rates were calculated using 1) population life tables and 2) the ADG® score, an accurate, validated index that predicts mortality risk based on patient comorbidities. A total of 36,045 men with a median age of 62 years were included in thestudy. Median observation time was 8.1 years. Observed 10-year survival was 88.9% (95% CI 88.4-89.3), significantly greater than the expected 10-year survival of 83.3% according to life tables and 76.0% according to ADG score.Theobserved-to-expected death ratio was 0.66 (range 0.64-0.68) and 0.46 (range 0.45-0.48) using life tables and the ADG score, respectively. Ontario men who undergo radical prostatectomy for cancer have10-year survival that significantly exceeds that of the population and individuals with similar comorbidities. This indicates that physicians and patients involved in deciding who should undergo radical prostatectomy have done an excellent job at identifying patients with prostate cancer with high survival. We are uncertain how these results apply to patients and physicians outside Ontario.

Survival of cancer patients in urban and rural areas of Germany—A comparison

BackgroundCancer care services including cancer prevention activities are predominantly localised in central cities, potentially causing a heterogeneous geographic access to cancer care. The question of an association between residence in either urban or rural areas and cancer survival has been analysed in other parts of the world with inconsistent results. This study aims at a comparison of age-standardised 5-year survival of cancer patients resident in German urban and rural regions using data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering a population of 33 million people. Material and methodsPatients diagnosed with cancers of the most frequent and of some rare sites in 1997–2006 were included in the analyses. Places of residence were assigned to rural and urban areas according to administrative district types of settlement structure. Period analysis and district type specific population life tables were used to calculate overall age-standardised 5-year relative survival estimates for the period 2002–2006. Poisson regression models for excess mortality (relative survival) were used to test for statistical significance. ResultsThe 5-year relative survival estimates varied little among district types for most of the common sites with no consistent trend. Significant differences were found for female breast cancer patients and male malignant melanoma patients resident in city core regions with slightly better survival compared to all other district types, particularly for patients aged 65 years and older. ConclusionWith regard to residence in urban or rural areas, the results of our study indicate that there are no severe differences concerning quality and accessibility of oncological care in Germany among different district types of settlement.

Direct and indirect effects of invertebrate predators on population level responses of the rotifer Brachionus havanaensis (Rotifera)

Rotifers, in nature, are consumed by several vertebrates and invertebrates. In response to predation, they show a certain degree of plasticity in their life history traits. In this regard, there is an ample database of information on the effect of Asplanchna on brachionids; much less is known on the effect of other common freshwater predators. We studied the chemical effects of four invertebrate predators, Stenostomum leucops (Turbellaria), Asplanchna girodi (Rotifera), Eosphora najas (Rotifera) and Mesocyclops pehpeiensis (Copepoda) on the demography of Brachionus havanaensis. Population growth and life table demography experiments were conducted in 50 mL vessels with 25 mL of moderately hard water and 0.5 × 106 cells mL−1 of Chlorella vulgaris as food. Two predators of each phylum were introduced into small meshes with 50 µm mesh and fed 15 individuals of another rotifer species Plationus patulus. Each experiment was set up with two controls, with and without the prey (P. patulus) in meshes, as in all the other treatments. We started the experiments with 15 individuals of B. havanaensis in the population growth experiments and 15 neonates (<12 h old) in the life table studies. The population growth studies were terminated after 20 days and the life table studies after the last individual of each cohort died. We also tested the feeding rates of A. girodi, S. leucops and M. pehpeiensis on B. havanaensis by observing the prey consumed at different time intervals from 15 to 90 min. The presence of P. patulus alone had an impact on the reproductive but not on the survivorship variables of Brachionus as compared to the controls. We found that among the predators, S. leucops had the least impact on the population dynamics and life history variables. The survivorship ranged from 16 to 18 days with no significant impact of infochemicals from any of the test predators. The population growth rate of B. havanaensis ranged from 0.2 to 0.34 day−1 and was highest in the presence of M. pehpeiensis and A. girodi. We also observed maximal differences in the life history strategy of B. havanaensis, as compared to the controls, in response to the most voracious predator, A. girodi.

Accumulation and Excretion of Cadmium in Three Successive Generations of <I>Spodoptera exigua</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Impact on the Population Increase

Nowadays, heavy metal pollution has become more and more serious. Cadmium is one of the heavy metals that have caused serious pollution. Spodoptera exigua Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), one of important agricultural pests, has broken out more frequently in recent years. In this study, accumulation at different developmental stages and excretion of Cd were detected, and effect of cadmium (Cd concentrations were 0.2, 0.8, 3.2, 12.8, and 51.2 mg/kg, respectively) on three successive generations of beet armyworm was also studied using life table in the laboratory. Results showed that Cd2+ contents were significantly different when S. exigua was reared under different Cd2+ concentrations in the same generation in a significant dose-dependent manner. The concentration of Cd2+ increased with extension of stress time. Cd2+ concentration at different developmental stages was different, that is, larvae > pupa > adult. After emergence, Cd2+ concentration in both females and males decreased gradually, but that in paired adults decreased to a greater extent than that in unpaired ones. Beet armyworm could excrete heavy metals by means of faeces, prepupa exuviate, and puparium. Life table of the laboratory population was constructed, which showed that low doses of cadmium promoted the increase of population, whereas high doses inhibited the increase, meanwhile, with the extension of exposure length, the index of population trend (I) declined more rapidly. The study might provide references for the long-term and objective assessment of heavy metal pollution and its effect on the populations of important agricultural pests.

Associations of metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus with 16-year survival after CABG

BackgroundThe associations of metabolic syndrome (MetS) or diabetes mellitus (DM) on long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have not been extensively evaluated. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of MetS and DM on the 16-year survival after CABG.MethodsDiabetic and metabolic status together with relevant cardiovascular data was established in 910 CABG patients operated in 1993-94. They were divided in three groups as follows: neither DM nor MetS (375 patients), MetS alone (279 patients) and DM with or without MetS (256 patients). The 16-year follow-up of patient survival was carried out using national health databases. The relative survival rates were analyzed using the Life Table method comparing the observed survival rates of three patient groups to the rates based on age-, sex- and time-specific life tables for the whole population in Finland. To study the independent significance of MetS and DM for clinical outcome, multivariate analysis was made using an optimizing stepwise procedure based on the Bayesian approach.ResultsBayesian multivariate analysis revealed together six variables to predict clinical outcome (2 months to 16 years) in relation to the national background population, i.e. age, diabetes, left ventricular ejection fraction, BMI, perfusion time during the CABG and peripheral arterial disease. Our principal finding was that after postoperative period the 16-year prognosis of patients with neither DM nor MetS was better than that of the age-, sex-and time-matched background population (relative survival against background population 1.037, p < 0.0001). The overall survival of MetS patients resembled that of the matched background population (relative survival 0.998, NS). DM was associated with significantly increased mortality (relative survival 0.86, p < 0.0001). Additionally, mortality was even higher in patients receiving insulin treatment than in those without. Excess death rate of DM patients was predominantly caused by cardiovascular causes.ConclusionIn this long-term follow-up study patient groups without diabetes had at least equal 16 years’ survival after CABG than their matched background populations. Survival of DM patients started to deteriorate already few years after the operation.

使用生命表评价烯啶虫胺对异色瓢虫的影响

为正确评估广谱杀虫剂烯啶虫胺对天敌昆虫异色瓢虫<em>Harmonia axyridis </em>（Pallas）的影响，采取滤纸接触法测定了烯啶虫胺（防治蚜虫田间推荐用量）对异色瓢虫影响，并使用生命表研究了烯啶虫胺对异色瓢虫实验种群的影响，为协调害虫的化学防治与生物防治提供参考。结果表明：该剂量烯啶虫胺对异色瓢虫当代（F₀）取食具有显著影响，药剂处理后7d内，成虫取食量显著降低；对F₀代成虫寿命及雌虫繁殖能力未见负面影响；烯啶虫胺处理对异色瓢虫初产卵、F₁代幼虫及蛹的历期没有显著影响；卵孵化率明显小于对照组，幼虫存活率及蛹羽化率没有显著影响。F₀代种群净增值力、周限增长率、内禀增长率与对照相比差异不显著，分别为812.66粒（对照899.73粒）、1.084（对照1.093）、0.081（对照0.089），药剂处理种群加倍时间为8.557d，与对照7.888d相比没有显著延长。这些结果说明，大田中使用烯啶虫胺防治蚜虫时理论上对异色瓢虫种群繁殖及发育没有显著影响，但施药初期会影响异色瓢虫的取食量。;Nitenpyram is a class of neonicotinoid insecticide and also a so-called low risk insecticide which targets the pest.Nitenpyram has been registered for controlling a variety of insect pests, such as aphid, whitefly and thrip, in China. In order to investigate its non target effects, we estimated the effect of nitenpyram on <em>Harmonia axyridis </em>(Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) which is considered an important generalist predator that can be used as a biological control agent against Hemiptera Sternorrhyncha, Thysanoptera, and the eggs and larvae of Lepidoptera, Coleoptera and Diptera. The filter paper touch method normally used to estimate the killing effect of insecticide on insects was used in our report, and the field recommended dose (25 mg/L) and control (0 mg/L) were adopted. The effects of nitenpyram on <em>Harmonia axyridis</em> (Pallas) were investigated which included assessing fecundity, feeding amount and the longevity of the ladybird in F₀. The results showed that when insecticides were applied at the adult stage, with 25 mg/L dosage or control, there were some negative effects on predation number of F₀. When being treated by nitenpyram, predation of the adult <em>Harmonia axyridis</em> decreased greatly after 1-7 days; but had no negative impact on the longevity and fecundity of F₀ adult <em>Harmonia axyridis</em>, however, the pre-ovipositing period was prolonged from 8.79 days to 9.79 days.At the same time, the survival rate and developmental time of <em>H.axyridis</em> in <em>F</em>₁ were examined. Some characteristics were significantly reduced if treated with the field recommended dose of nitenpyram.The hatching and emergence rate of pupation were significantly decreased from 92.89% to 83.67% and from 77.74% to 59.99%, respectively; but the survival rate of larvae was not obviously influenced. At the same time, the laboratory population life table of ladybirds in F₀ which were treated with 25 mg/L dosage or control was established by calculating the longevity, survival rate and adult reproduction. The net reproduction rate (<em>R</em>₀), finite rate of increase (<em>K</em>), population doubling time (<em>t</em>) and intrinsic rates of increase (<em>r</em>_m) of the F₀ generation were no different from that of the control group. For example, the net reproduction rate (<em>R</em>₀) of the treated population was 812.66 (899.23 for the control). The calculated population doubling time (t) were 7.788 d (control) and treated 8.557 d (treated); intrinsic rates of increase (<em>r</em>_m) were 0.089 (control) and 0.081 (treated), respectively. All these results suggested that in an agricultural ecosystem, at the recommended field dose (25 mg/L), nitenpyram is a safe insecticide for the natural enemy. Nitenpyram has no obvious impact on the population fecundity and growth of <em>Harmonia axyridi</em>s (Pallas) in prevention of aphids theoretically, but it has an influence on the predation of <em>Harmonia axyridis</em> (Pallas) in the early stage of pesticide delivery.

温度对柑橘始叶螨实验种群生长发育繁殖的影响

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 温度对柑橘始叶螨实验种群生长发育繁殖的影响 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201210081389 作者: 作者单位: 西南大学植物保护学院 重庆 400716,西南大学植物保护学院 重庆 400716,西南大学植物保护学院,西南大学植物保护学院 重庆 400716 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 重庆市自然科学基金资助项目（cstcjjA80009）；中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目（XDJK2011C010） Effects of different temperatures on the growth and development of Eotetranychus Kankitus (Ehara) Author: Affiliation: College of Plant Protection,Southwest University,College of Plant Protection,Southwest University,,College of Plant Protection,Southwest University Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:通过室内试验研究了温度对柑橘始叶螨Eotetranychus kankitus（Ehara）生长发育和繁殖的影响，组建了柑橘始叶螨在7种温度下（18、21、24、27、30、33℃和36℃）的实验种群生命表。结果表明，柑橘始叶螨的生长发育、繁殖和生命表参数在不同温度之间有显著差异。卵在36℃条件下不能正常孵化，其他6个温度对该螨的种群适合度有显著影响；发育历期与温度基本呈负相关；整个世代温度（T）和发育速率（V（G））拟合的线性日度方程和Logistic模型分别为V（G）=-0.037+0.004 T（R2=7.879）和V（G）=0.080/（1+EXP（7.402 - 0.363T））（R2=0.973）；世代发育起点温度和有效积温分别为12.38℃和220.00d·℃；每雌产卵总量在27℃下最高，为73.4粒，18℃下最低，为35.3粒；卵的孵化率、幼、若螨的存活率在27℃下最大，分别为99.75%、96.18%和97.54%，18℃下最小，分别为99.01%、94.05%和93.15%；在6种温度下内禀增长力rm值分别为0.0372、0.0757、0.1024、0.1195、0.1469、0.1427；净增值率Ro分别为9.3241、16.0162、16.6874、20.4564、21.1958、8.8142。由此推断，21-30℃是柑橘始叶螨生长发育和繁殖的最适温度范围。 Abstract:In order to explore the effects of temperatures on the growth, development and reproduction of Eotetranychus Kankitus (Ehara) in the laboratory, the experimental population life tables of Eotetranychus Kankitus at seven different temperatures (18℃, 21℃, 24℃, 27℃, 30℃, 33℃, and 36℃) were established in laboratory. The results showed that the growth, development, reproduction, and life table parameters of Eotetranychus Kankitus were significantly affected by different temperatures. Eggs cannot hatch at 36℃, and other six temperatures had significant influence on the population fitness of Eotetranychus Kankitus. The developmental period was negatively correlated with the temperature. The relationship between temperature (T) and developmental rate (V(G)) for whole generation could be described by the linear model V(G)=-0.037+0.004 T (R2=0.879) and Logistic model V(G)=0.080/(1+EXP(7.402 - 0.363T)) (R2=0.973). The developmental threshold temperature and effectively accumulated temperature for the whole generation were 12.38℃ and 220.00 degree day, respectively. The highest eggs laid per female was 73.4 at 27℃, while the least was 35.3 at 18℃; The greatest hatching rates (99.75%), survival rate of larva (96.18%) and nymph (97.54%) were,all observed at 27℃., whereas the least were 99.01%, 94.05% and 93.15% at 18℃, respectively, The rm under six different temperatures were 0.0372, 0.0757, 0.1024, 0.1195, 0.1469 and 0.1427, while the R0 were 9.3241, 16.0162, 16.6874, 20.4564, 21.1958 and 8.8142, respectively. It was concluded that temperature had a great effect on the development of Eotetranychus kankitus and the optimum temperature range for the mite is from 21℃ to 30℃. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Relative survival of patients with non-malignant central nervous system tumours: a descriptive study by the Austrian Brain Tumour Registry.

Background:Unlike malignant primary central nervous system (CNS) tumours outcome data on non-malignant CNS tumours are scarce. For patients diagnosed from 1996 to 2002 5-year relative survival of only 85.0% has been reported. We investigated this rate in a contemporary patient cohort to update information on survival.Methods:We followed a cohort of 3983 cases within the Austrian Brain Tumour Registry. All patients were newly diagnosed from 2005 to 2010 with a histologically confirmed non-malignant CNS tumour. Vital status, cause of death, and population life tables were obtained by 31 December 2011 to calculate relative survival.Results:Overall 5-year relative survival was 96.1% (95% CI 95.1–97.1%), being significantly lower in tumours of borderline (90.2%, 87.2–92.7%) than benign behaviour (97.4%, 96.3–98.3%). Benign tumour survival ranged from 86.8 for neurofibroma to 99.7% for Schwannoma; for borderline tumours survival rates varied from 83.2 for haemangiopericytoma to 98.4% for myxopapillary ependymoma. Cause of death was directly attributed to the CNS tumour in 39.6%, followed by other cancer (20.4%) and cardiovascular disease (15.8%).Conclusion:The overall excess mortality in patients with non-malignant CNS tumours is 5.5%, indicating a significant improvement in survival over the last decade. Still, the remaining adverse impact on survival underpins the importance of systematic registration of these tumours.

The effects of temperature on the development of the moth Athetis lepigone, and a prediction of field occurrence.

Athetis lepigone (Möschler) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an important insect pest of corn crops in China. To determine the effect of temperature on A. lepigone growth, and to provide a forecasting model for this pest, the development and fecundity of A. lepigone under five different temperatures (18, 21, 24, 27, 30° C) was investigated, and an experimental population life table was constructed based on the obtained results. The results showed that the duration of development of A. lepigone decreased as the temperature increased from 18 to 30° C. Approximately 95% of mature larvae stopped pupating at 18° C, and about 70% of mature larvae stopped pupating at 21° C. When the growth chamber temperature was above 24° C, no growth arrest was observed. The results indicated that the optimum growth temperature of A. lepigone was about 26.47° C. In this study, the highest survival rate, fecundity per female, and population index trend were observed when the temperature was set at 27° C. The percentages of larvae that could spin cocoons after the 5th or 6th instar differed at the different temperatures. The developmental threshold temperatures for A. lepigone eggs, larvae, pre-pupae, pupae, preoviposition females, and the whole generation (i.e., egg to oviposition) were 11.03, 9.04, 15.08, 11.79, 11.63, and 10.84° C, respectively, and their effective accumulative temperatures were 63.51, 339.42, 30.04, 118.41, 35.06 and 574.08 degree-days, respectively. Based on the effective accumulative temperature law, this pest insect can have four generations in most of the Huang-Huai region of China, and two to three generations annually in some cold regions. Athetis lepigone may have four generations in the mid-southern part of Hebei Province. This prediction matches the field survey results.

Impact of Summer Heat on Urban Population Mortality in Europe during the 1990s: An Evaluation of Years of Life Lost Adjusted for Harvesting

BackgroundEfforts to prevent and respond to heat-related illness would benefit by quantifying the impact of summer heat on acute population mortality. We estimated years of life lost due to heat in 14 European cities during the 1990s accounting for harvesting.MethodsWe combined the number of deaths attributable to heat estimated by the PHEWE project with life expectancy derived from population life tables. The degree of harvesting was quantified by comparing the cumulative effect of heat up to lagged day 30 with the immediate effect of heat, by geographical region and age. Next, an evaluation of years of life lost adjusted for harvesting was obtained.ResultsWithout accounting for harvesting, we estimated more than 23,000 years of life lost per year, 55% of which was among individuals younger than 75. When 30 day mortality displacement was taken into account, the overall impact reduced on average by 75%. Harvesting was more pronounced in North-continental cities than in Mediterranean cities and was stronger among young people than among elderly.ConclusionsHigh ambient temperatures during summer were responsible for many deaths in European cities during the 1990s, but a large percentage of these deaths likely involved frail persons whose demise was only briefly hastened by heat exposure. Differences in harvesting across regions and classes of age could reflect different proportions of frail individuals in the population or could be indicative of heterogeneous dynamics underlying the entry and exit of individuals from the high-risk pool which is subject to mortality displacement.

Gender differences in mental health expectancies in early- and midlife in six European countries

Health expectancies, taking into account both quality and quantity of life, have generally been based on disability and physical functioning. To compare mental health expectancies at age 25 and 55 based on common mental disorders both across countries and between males and females. Mental health expectancies were calculated by combining mortality data from population life tables and the age-specific prevalence of selected common mental disorders obtained from the European Study of the Epidemiology of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD). For the male population aged 25 (all countries combined) life expectancy was 52 years and life expectancy spent with a common mental disorder was 1.8 years (95% CI 0.7-2.9), 3.4% of overall life expectancy. In comparison, for the female population life expectancy at age 25 was higher (57.9 years) as was life expectancy spent with a common mental disorder (5.1 years, 95% CI 3.6-6.6) and as a proportion of overall life expectancy, 8.8%. By age 55 life expectancy spent with a common mental disorder had reduced to 0.7 years (males) and 2.3 years (females). Age and gender differences underpin our understanding of years spent with common mental disorders in adulthood. Greater age does not mean living relatively more years with common mental disorder. However, the female population spends more years with common mental disorders and a greater proportion of their longer life expectancy with them (and with each studied separate mental disorder).

Demographic characteristics of cladocerans subject to predation by the flatworm Stenostomum leucops

We present data on the population dynamics and life table demography of four common cladoceran taxa Ceriodaphnia dubia, Ceriodaphnia cornuta, Macrothrix triserialis, and Moina macrocopa at varying densities (0.04 and 0.16 ind ml−1) of the predatory flatworm Stenostomum leucops. We also studied the impact of S. leucops on competition between C. dubia, M. triserialis, and M. macrocopa. Experiments, with four replicates for each treatment, were conducted in 200 ml recipients with 50 ml of moderately hard water and the green alga Scenedesmus acutus at a concentration of 0.5 × 106 cells ml−1. We conducted all the experiments with single clones of each taxa. We found that Ceriodaphnia cornuta, regardless of the presence of its beak, was adversely affected to a greater degree than C. dubia due to the presence of the flatworms. Moina macrocopa and Macrothrix triserialis were adversely affected in the competition experiments due to the presence of the flatworms whereas C. dubia was not. The spines of Macrothrix triserialis were not an effective defense against predation by the worms. The population growth rate of Moina macrocopa was significantly higher (0.45 d−1) in the presence of S. leucops infochemicals than in controls (0.3 d−1).

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Early versus Late Total Hip Replacement in Italy

ObjectiveTo assess the cost-effectiveness of early primary total hip replacement (THR) for functionally independent older adult patients with osteoarthritis (OA) versus 1) nonsurgical therapy followed by THR once the patient has progressed to a functionally dependent state (“delayed THR”) and 2) nonsurgical therapy alone (‘medical therapy’), from the Italian National Health Service perspective. MethodsIndividual patient data and evidence from published literature on disease progression, economic costs and THR outcomes in OA, including utilities, perioperative mortality rates, prosthesis survival, and costs of prostheses, THR, rehabilitation, follow-up, revision, and nonsurgical management, combined with population life tables, were synthesized in a Markov model of OA. The model represents the lifetime experience of a patient cohort following their treatment choice, discounting costs and benefits (quality-adjusted life-years) at 3% annually. ResultsAt age 65 years, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year of THR over delayed THR was €987 in men and €466 in women; the figures for delayed THR versus medical therapy were €463 and €82, respectively. Among 80-year-olds, early THR is (extended) dominant. With gradual utility loss after primary THR, delaying surgery may be more appealing in women than in men in their 50s, because longer female life expectancy implies longer latter periods of low health-related quality of life (HRQOL) with early THR. ConclusionsTHR is cost-effective. Patients’ HRQOL benefits forgone with delayed THR are worth more than the costs it saves to the Italian National Health Service. This analysis might help to explain women's consistently lower HRQOL by the time of primary operation.

不同水稻品种对稻纵卷叶螟生长发育、存活、生殖及飞行能力的影响

The rice leafroller,Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee),is an important rice pest in the main rice-growing areas of China.In recent years,it has caused substantial damage and seriously threatened rice production.C.medinalis is a seasonal and long-distance migratory species;its flight behavior is probably affected by many environmental factors,such as food quality during the larval stage,population density,photoperiod,and weather.Deterioration or shortage of food during the larval stage not only influences the development of C.medinalis but can also cause reproductive diapause to induce its migration.To determine how larval host quality affected development,survival,reproduction,and flight ability,we investigated larval survival,adult ovarian development,fecundity,and flight capacity of C.medinalis feeding on six different varieties of rice.The varieties were Wuyujing 3(japonica rice),Ningjing 1(hybrid japonica),TN1(indica),Shanyou 63(hybrid indica),Liangyoupei 9(super hybrid indica),and Yongyou 9(super hybrid indica × japonica).These six varieties were the major ones cultivated in different rice-growing areas of China.Development,survival,and fecundity of C.medinalis on the different rice varieties were observed by determining semi-natural population life tables on each variety.Ovary development and the flight abilities of adults feeding on different rice hosts were investigated by dissecting the female ovaries and by tethered flight tests,respectively.The results showed that C.medinalis exhibited significantly lower survival in the immature stage and significantly lower adult fecundity when larvae fed on Wuyujing 3 and Ningjing 1 than when they ate Yongyou 9 or Liangyoupei 9.Similarly,the larval and pupal developmental stages of C.medinalis larvae that used Wuyujing 3 and Ningjing 1 as hosts were significantly longer compared to those that developed on Yongyou 9 and Liangyoupei 9.Furthermore,the average ovary developmental grades of C.medinalis from Wuyujing 3 and Ningjing 1 were significantly lower than those from Yongyou 9 and Liangyoupei 9 in both mated and virgin moths.Conversely,both mated and unmated 3 and 4 day old adults had significantly higher flight abilities when they had fed on Ningjing 1 as larvae than those than had fed on other rice varieties.The results indicated that the different rice varieties significantly influenced the survival,development,reproduction,and flight abilities of C.medinalis.The rice varieties could be ranked in order of their negative influence on C.medinalis as follows: Ningjing 1 Wuyujing 3 TN1 Shanyou 63 Yongyou 9 Liangyoupei 9.This paper discusses probable explanations for the observed differences in development,survival,fecundity,and flight abilities of C.medinalis.Leaf morphological characters,high cellular contents of silicon,and the thickness of the wax layer may be the major reason for the decline in fitness of C.medinalis feeding on japonica rice varieties.In addition,a shortage of some amino acids and low levels of juvenile hormone resulting from low-nutrient or deteriorated hosts may inhibit ovary development and contribute to the migration of C.medinalis.These results could provide the foundation for C.medinalis population forecasting and the development of sustainable management tactics.

Burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Germany: estimations from a disease model

This article describes the adaptation of a model assessing the incidence of osteoporotic fractures and prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) in Germany. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the epidemiological burden of PMO in Germany from 2010 to 2020. For each year of the study, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures (1, 2 or ≥3) and deaths. Although the fracture site was not explicitly accounted for in the model structure, the site (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected the site-specific risk of death and of subsequent fractures. Model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation). In 2010, the number of osteoporotic fractures was estimated at 349,560 in women aged 50 years or more, including 80,177 hip and 48,550 vertebral fractures. By 2020, the population is expected to grow by 13.1 %. As a result, the number of fractures is predicted to increase by 15.2 %. The improvement in life expectancy is predicted to lead to a relatively smaller increase in the number of deaths attributable to fractures (+12.8 %), but also to an increase in the prevalence of women with multiple prior fractures (+25.5 %). The PMO disease model, first developed for Sweden, was adapted to Germany. Due to the ageing of the population, the number of osteoporotic fractures is expected to increase markedly by +15.2 % by 2020.

Demography of zooplankton (&lt;i&gt;Anuraeopsis fissa, Brachionus rubens and Moina macrocopa&lt;/i&gt;) fed Chlorella vulgaris and Scenedesmus acutus cultured on different media

Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold's basal) medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan). Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0 x 10(6) cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5 x 10(6) cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23 +/- 1 degrees C in 100 mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates). For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (<24h old) into each test jar containing the specific algal type and concentration. For the rotifer experiments, we set 5mL tubes with one neonate each and 10 replicates for each algal species and culture medium. We found that the average rotifer life span was not influenced by the diet, but for M. macrocopa fed S. acutus cultured in Bold's medium, the average lifespan was significantly lower than with the other diets. The gross and net reproductive rates of A. fissa (ranging from 18-36 offspring per female) were significantly higher for C vulgaris cultured in Bold medium. Regardless of the culture medium, Chlorella resulted in significantly higher gross and net reproductive rates for B. rubens than S. acutus diets. The reproductive rates of M. macrocopa were significantly higher in all the tested diets except when fed with S. acutus in Bold medium. The population increase rate, derived from growth experiments of A. fissa and B. rubens, ranged from 0.1-0.25/d and were significantly higher on C vulgaris cultured in liquid fertilizer as compared to the other diets. The growth rates of M. macrocopa ranged from 0.1 to 0.38/d, and were highest with diets of C. vulgaris cultured in Bold medium and S. acutus cultured in fertilizer. Thus, regardless of the culture medium used, the growth rates of the evaluated zooplankton species were higher with Chlorella than with Scenedesmus. The peak population density was highest (2 800ind/mL) for A. fissa fed Chlorella that was cultured on liquid fertilizers, while B. rubens and M. macrocopa had peak abundances of 480 and 12ind/mL, respectively under similar conditions.

The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study

Several recent studies suggest that individual subjective survival forecasts are powerful predictors of both mortality and behavior. Using 15 years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, I present an alternative view. Across a wide range of ages, predictions of in-sample mortality rates based on subjective forecasts are substantially less accurate than predictions based on population life tables. Subjective forecasts also fail to capture fundamental properties of senescence, including increases in yearly mortality rates with age. To shed light on the mechanisms underlying these biases, I develop and estimate a latent-factor model of how individuals form subjective forecasts. The estimates of this model's parameters imply that these forecasts incorporate several important sources of measurement error that arguably swamp the useful information they convey.

Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model

This article estimates the present and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France in women aged 50 years and over. We adapted an existing model developed for Sweden to France. For each year of the study from 1970 to 2020, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using annual cycles. Health states were based on the number of fractures (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) and deaths. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risks of subsequent fractures and of death. Country-specific model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020 and incidence of hip fracture. The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women was expected to increase from 3.0 million to 3.4 million between 2010 and 2020 (+15.3 %). Assuming that the incidence of fracture by age group does not change over time, the model predicted that the overall number of osteoporotic fractures would increase from 204,234 fractures in 2010 to 241,261 in 2020 (+18.1 %), hip (20.3 %), vertebral (19.0 %) and non-hip non-vertebral fractures (17.0 %). The aging of the population is expected to drive a marked increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis and in the number of osteoporotic fractures. These data may assist future planning for appropriate heath care provision.