Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model

Abstract

This article estimates the present and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France in women aged 50 years and over. We adapted an existing model developed for Sweden to France. For each year of the study from 1970 to 2020, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using annual cycles. Health states were based on the number of fractures (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) and deaths. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risks of subsequent fractures and of death. Country-specific model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020 and incidence of hip fracture. The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women was expected to increase from 3.0 million to 3.4 million between 2010 and 2020 (+15.3 %). Assuming that the incidence of fracture by age group does not change over time, the model predicted that the overall number of osteoporotic fractures would increase from 204,234 fractures in 2010 to 241,261 in 2020 (+18.1 %), hip (20.3 %), vertebral (19.0 %) and non-hip non-vertebral fractures (17.0 %). The aging of the population is expected to drive a marked increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis and in the number of osteoporotic fractures. These data may assist future planning for appropriate heath care provision.