Popular Support Research Articles

Changing Something So That Nothing Changes. The Decorative Reform of Mandatory Primary Elections in Peru

Objective/context: In 2019, promoted by President Martín Vizcarra, the Congress of the Republic of Peru sanctioned a law on mandatory primary elections for voters and political parties. However, the regulation was not implemented, given that it was suspended by the Legislative Branch for the general elections in 2021 and the regional elections in 2022. Methodology: This paper studies the reform process of mandatory, simultaneous, and open primaries (PASO, for its acronym in Spanish) in Peru and its counter-reform based on its suspension on two occasions (2021 and 2022). Twenty-three key actors were interviewed for this research, including congresspersons, ministers, electoral officials, and researchers, in addition to the revision of secondary sources and newspapers of legislative sessions. Conclusions: The paper concludes that PASO were a “decorative” reform, i.e., a law passed without the intention of implementing it. Its sanction was the product of a reformist coalition between civil society and the President of the nation, where the objectives of increasing popular support for President Vizcarra and the need to improve the legitimacy of the political system converged. The reform was resisted by congresspersons who formed two counter-reformist coalitions that suspended the PASO on two occasions. Originality: The research shows that these counter-reform coalitions are intrinsically linked to the atomization and personalization of the Peruvian party system, characterized by hyper-personalism and a lack of party structures. In addition, it generates theoretical contributions to studying the processes of reforms and counter-reforms in the context of institutional weakness.

Understanding how volunteer companionship impacts those during the end of life: A realist evaluation

Volunteers are a popular unpaid support role in end of life care yet how accompaniment influences the dying is underdeveloped. This study examined how companionship works, for whom, in what circumstances and why. Initial realist ideas were developed through participant observation (14 months), document analysis, and realist interviews with companionship trainers (n = 6). Theory testing involved volunteer interviews (n = 7), accounts from the dying, proxy accounts for the dying, and written reflections from companionship training. Companionship helps people live well until they die, prepare for death, and experience a good death. Four areas of volunteering explain these outcomes namely a loving friend, a holistic presence, a non-judgmental intermediary, and wrap around care. The four areas activate mechanisms related to reminiscing, preserving dignity/personhood, and easing suffering, contingent on specific contexts. The findings unpack how volunteering exerts its influence and what contextual factors facilitate outcomes, advancing the knowledge in this area.

How incumbents create uneven patterns of competition during autocratization: the AKP case of Turkey

ABSTRACT This article explains the survival of the AKP in Turkey’s late stage of autocratization (2017-present) through its strategy of shifting the primary drivers of competition from individual parties to pre-electoral alliances. Confronted with a decline in popular support in 2015 June elections, the article argues that the AKP created uneven patterns of competition via the system of pre-electoral alliances so that it could institutionalize a ‘Rikerian offense’ on the salient Turkish-Kurdish cleavage and establish an authoritarian power-sharing mechanism with its former challenger, the Turkish nationalist MHP. To illustrate the shift toward uneven patterns of electoral competition via such incumbent strategies, the article conducts a two-part analysis: It first examines the landscape of competition among parties (2002-2015) and second, evaluates competition among both parties and alliances (2018-2023) at the national and district levels in Turkey.

How enterprises' public welfare low-carbon behavior affects consumers’ green purchase behavior

The Chinese economy has undergone high-speed, high-quality growth, and the concept of low-carbon technology has gained popular support. Businesses and consumers must jointly endeavor to achieve low-carbon economic development. Moreover, it is important to investigate whether enterprises' low-carbon behavior is correlated with consumers' green consumption behavior. We built a theoretical model to depict the relationship between corporate public welfare low-carbon behavior, consumers' green purchase intention, and green purchase behavior. We then divided corporate public welfare low-carbon behavior into three dimensions. We proposed hypotheses, collected data through a questionnaire survey, and analyzed the data using statistical analysis software of SPSS 26.0 and AMOS 24.0. Public welfare low-carbon behavior was significantly correlated with consumers’ green purchase intention, and public welfare low-carbon participation and public welfare low-carbon motivation were significantly correlated with green purchase intention. Finally, we proposed suggestions from three perspectives: the public welfare low-carbon mechanism, public welfare low-carbon participation, and public welfare low-carbon motivation. The results provide theoretical support for research methods related to the low-carbon growth of enterprises and green consumption, as well as guidance and decision-making support for enterprises in carrying out cause marketing.

“Framing” the Opposition: The Limits of Mobilization against Duterte’s “War on Drugs” in the Philippines

ABSTRACT Why is there sometimes limited mobilization against autocratization, particularly when it involves major human rights violations? Some scholars emphasize the loss of political space through repression as the major cause while others emphasize strategic considerations such as divisions and abandonment of moderate tactics. A third view stresses popular support for strongman rule. Viewed in this light, the weakness of pushback against Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine president from 2016 to 2022, presents a challenge to existing theories. Despite the bloody “war on drugs” during his presidency, there was no violent government crackdown on peaceful demonstrators, and centrists eventually coalesced with left-wing activists around moderate strategies. But public backing for Duterte does not explain how he was able to defuse popular outrage over drug war killings, particularly after the high-profile police murders of several minors. This paper offers a relational explanation utilizing competing framing analysis. This better elucidates how, with Catholic bishops and community organizations politically weakened and international organizations denounced for interfering in domestic politics, Duterte was able to tactically outmaneuver his opponents and "frame" human rights advocates as coddling criminals while he protected law-abiding Filipinos.

China’s rise and the United States’ response: implications for the global order and New Zealand/Aotearoa. Part I: Using uneven and combined development theory to explain China’s rise

ABSTRACT Part One of this article provides a novel condensed Marxist account of China’s rapid economic growth which underpins its rising geopolitical and military power. In the vast literature on China’s rise, pro-market reforms and/or state policy-making and interventionism are emphasised as causes, depending on whether a neoliberal or neomercantilist perspective is adopted. Although these accounts contain important elements of truth, Marxist economic theory and the theory of uneven and combined development emphasise the central role played by China’s comparatively high rates of exploitation and profitability in fuelling rapid economic growth. This Marxist perspective informs a critical analysis of China’s hybrid neoliberal policy regime, regionally decentralised system of government, huge trade surpluses and foreign currency reserves, inflows of foreign direct investment, state investment in infrastructure, rising socio-economic inequality, poor social provision especially of public health care, popular support for and potential sources of opposition to the CCP regime, and military modernisation.

Dancing at the crossroads: Lessons from Ireland on collective labour law reform

AbstractThe past 20 years were convulsive for industrial relations in Ireland: from boom to bust and back again, with the Financial Crisis killing off national bargaining; the Supreme Court first undermining sectoral bargaining, then shifting back in favour of it; and of course, the Covid‐19 pandemic generating an overhaul of working conditions across society. All along, widespread industrial unrest has been notable by its absence. Long‐term decline in Irish trade union density continues, despite recent research showing significant popular support for trade unions, particularly among young workers. Now, the obligation to transpose the Directive on Adequate Minimum Wages has brought Ireland to a crossroads in collective labour law and industrial relations reform. How Ireland has responded to these pressures, internal and external, holds lessons for other jurisdictions, of which this article highlights three: a commitment to pragmatic adaptation over principled coherence makes measuring the success of any reform project difficult; different methods of reform enjoy varying levels of legitimacy; and disjunction between different levels of bargaining generates pressure on the system, including risks to the legitimacy of the system itself and the actors within it—particularly beleaguered trade unions.

High-End Street Vendor Economy and Sustainable Urban Development: A Comprehensive Analysis of Policy, Planning, and Social Engagement

This article explores the high-end street vending economy in China and its implications for sustainable urban development, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the policy planning and social engagement that have facilitated the growth of this economic model, which has emerged as a vital component in alleviating economic pressure, promoting employment, and safeguarding livelihoods in urban settings. This study utilizes case studies to present the current status, potential, and developmental trends of the high-end street vending economy, highlighting its popularity and governmental support in cities such as Shanghai. Additionally, the research delves into the challenges and opportunities presented by this economic model, including environmental impacts, resource sustainability, social inclusivity, and economic sustainability. It provides a comprehensive analysis of how high-end street vending can contribute to urban planning, public space utilization, and the promotion of cultural diversity and urban image. Finally, the paper concludes with policy recommendations and a future outlook on the integration of high-end street vending economies within sustainable urban development frameworks.

Group Self‐Interest vs. Equity: Explaining Support for Horizontal Redistribution in (Former) Competitive Clientelist States

Extant literature links intergroup disparities, or horizontal inequalities, in Sub‐Saharan Africa to the unequal representation of ethnic groups in central power, who accumulate wealth at the expense of politically marginalized groups. Over time, these politically‐induced inequalities have trapped some ethnic groups in positions of relative disadvantage. Group‐based, or horizontal, redistribution can help redress these inequalities yet require popular support if they are not to contribute to intergroup tensions. In this article, we examine how people’s experiences of political exclusion, on the one hand, and their attributional beliefs about the causes of political exclusion, on the other, condition support for government policies aimed at eradicating economic inequalities between different ethnic groups. We argue that people are more likely to be supportive of horizontal redistribution either when (H1a) they belong to ethnic groups that have not had access to central power, and/or (H1b) feel that their ethnic group is politically marginalized (and thus stands to gain); or when (H2) they attribute the political exclusion of the politically marginalized group(s) that stand(s) to benefit from these policies to the legacies of colonialism and clientelism (thus seeking to foster equity). To test our hypotheses, we examine these issues in the context of Kenya, a society with politically salient ethnic cleavages and a history of clientelism. Based on a unique online survey involving 2,286 Kenyans, we show that, notwithstanding group self‐interest being at play, there is strong support for horizontal redistribution across groups.

Shut Up! Governments’ Popular Support and Journalist Harassment: Evidence from Latin America

ABSTRACT During the past few decades, Latin American governments’ recurrent attacks against journalists have contributed to the erosion of press freedom in the region and, relatedly, of the quality of democracy. Yet what pushes governments to harass journalists? We argue that governments are more likely to harass journalists when popular support for them drops. Due to the ability of journalists to influence public opinion, governments could perceive the harassment of journalists as a means to punish and silence those individuals who are seen as contributing to their decline in public support or as obstacles to regaining popularity. We test our argument on a sample of Latin American countries observed from 1990 to 2019. We find that declines in governments’ popular support lead to more harassment of journalists. Our research contributes to the debate on the determinants of press freedom and sheds further light on the current decline of democratic quality in Latin America.

Tycoon candidates, electoral strategies, and voter support: a survey experiment in South Africa

AbstractWhy do voters shun some business tycoons yet elect others into power? As structural conditions facilitate the entry of super-wealthy actors into politics, the differential electoral support across business elites suggests a puzzle. We conceptualize four mechanisms behind the popular support for “tycoon candidates”: competence signaling, framing, fame, and clientelism. To test their relative efficacy, we leverage an experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey in South Africa, an important developing democracy where certain tycoons are successfully running for office. We find that, across distinct electoral appeals by tycoon candidates, clientelism is particularly effective, especially for mobilizing support from the less affluent voters. Racial framing significantly decreases support among white voters. Meanwhile, tycoons’ competence signaling or fame do not help them at the ballot box. By identifying the micro-level underpinnings of voter support across tycoon candidates, our study contributes to the literatures on business and politics, voting behavior, and clientelism.

Losing support to democracy: Political socialization, popular conceptualizations, and the formation of political grievances among marginalized youth in Tunisia

ABSTRACT Given incumbent-led autocratization in Tunisia, the article investigates support to democracy among youth in historically marginalized regions and the likelihood they will prefer the authoritarian alternative. Putting forth a framework for micro-level assessment of the cognitive and interpretive dynamics generating loss of popular support to democratic transition, the research problematizes the relationship between political socialization, the conceptualization of democracy, and the formation of political grievances. Drawing on 12 focus group discussions held in six cities in early 2021, the article finds that political learning occurs through observation of unfolding processes via the media/social media in a highly polarized public sphere. As a result, youth understand democracy as the substantive outcome of extended rights, , and judge democracy based on what these extensions produce. The research finds three primary political grievances that are framed as anti-establishment and not as a preference for authoritarianism. Nonetheless, the research also finds that within their conceptualization of democracy are preferences for its limitation in both procedural and substantive dimensions. The article extends the research agenda on support to authoritarian backsliding by demonstrating how modes of political learning shape popular understandings, and assessing the implications of these understanding in terms of authoritarian legitimation.

Incumbent and opposition popular support and boycotts in authoritarian and hybrid regimes in Africa, the Middle East and beyond

ABSTRACT Variation in election boycotts in Africa and the Middle East raise the question of the factors that influence the likelihood of boycotts. Examining this dynamic in Africa, the Middle East and around the globe, we explore one possible factor influencing national election boycotts: the relative level of popular support between the regime and opposition. Utilising the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset, we find that when the regime has greater popular support than the opposition, the likelihood of major boycotts is low. In contrast, when the opposition has more popular support than the regime at the point of election, the likelihood of boycotts increases. These findings highlight the importance of publicly observable levels of support as a means for opposition parties to gauge the possible payoff for boycotting, particularly in authoritarian and hybrid regimes where lack of transparency creates uncertainty regarding other sources of regime strength or weakness.

The River God Cult and the Reshaping of Political Authority—Reading Inscriptions from the Hezhong Area in Tang China

The River God cult held a significant place in state rituals in imperial China. While scholars have primarily focused on the evolution of the River God sacrificial system, with its interplay of the official granting of noble titles and popular beliefs, this paper offers a further examination of the River God cult. By reading the “Stele of the (Shrine) Temple for the River God honored as the Duke of Numinous Source” (hedushen lingyuangong cimiao bei 河瀆神靈源公祠廟碑), created in the Tang Dynasty, this study explores the interactive relationship between the River God cult and state power in the Hezhong 河中area during that time period. We contend that the traditional River God cult and the participation of both officials and civilians in common rituals throughout past dynasties not only created a concentration of historical memories and reverent emotions but also established a strong social foundation for belief in the River God within the Hezhong region. This cult attracted both state endorsement and popular support. Thus, Guo Ziyi 郭子儀 (697–781), a famous military general in the Tang Dynasty, sought to renovate a temple and erect a monument for the River God. This monument was to serve as a cultural symbol that would strengthen the connection between the state and the local community, and hence ease the social tensions in the Hezhong area after the An Lushan Rebellion. In sum, such a construction would enhance the psychological and cultural identity of the people with both the mandate of heaven and the Tang imperial authority.

Cosmopolitan realism and the inward turn

ABSTRACT Some self-declared defenders of democracy maintain that a suspension of the ‘cosmopolitan agenda’ is necessary to blunt the appeal of insurgent right wing populism. I argue that cosmopolitans should support this ‘inward turn’ when doing so helps to preserve the long-term viability of that agenda. Cosmopolitans must certainly motivate citizens of different countries to support it. However, they must also encourage those citizens to support democracy and inclusion at home, for support for the cosmopolitan agenda becomes less likely in its absence. Therefore, cosmopolitans should support the inward turn when doing so makes it harder for right wing populists to erode popular support for democracy, inclusion, and the cosmopolitan agenda. Practically speaking, then, cosmopolitanism should not look that different from liberal nationalism in the short-term. Unlike liberal nationalists, though, cosmopolitans should only prioritize the defense of democracy and inclusion at home for practical reasons – not normative reasons. Accordingly, cosmopolitanism should look different from liberal nationalism in the long run, but not radically so. I engage with the empirical literature on public opinion and pay special attention to Lea Ypi’s argument for ‘statist cosmopolitanism.’

Democracy's Discontent and the Resurgence of Coups in West Africa: Implications for Africa

The resurgence of military coups in African politics poses a challenge for democracy and it highlights the fragility of democratization in Africa. Going by the recent coup waves, democracy appears to be in a very fragile state in Africa. Africa for a very long time has enjoyed relative stability in its democratization process. However, this long period of stability is being challenged again as there have already been five successful overthrows of democratically elected governments in Chad, Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Niger between 2021 and 2023 in addition to the unsuccessful attacks. It is equally worth noting that the recent coup waves in Africa have been dominated by West African states: Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. Unlike in the past when citizens greeted attacks on democratically elected governments with discontent and disapproval, the recent coups have for so many reasons been met with support and acceptance by citizens through celebrations on the streets and supportive messages on social media. This paper therefore seeks to examine democracy’s discontent and the resurgence of coups in West Africa to identify its implications for Africa. The study relied essentially on qualitative data predicated on secondary data. The paper adopted populism as its framework of analysis. The paper revealed that the popular support for the recent coup waves stems from citizens' dissatisfaction with the performance of democracy and democratic leadership. The study recommended, amongst other things, that democratic institutions should be reformed and strengthened, good governance should be promoted by African leaders, and maximum attention should be paid to the welfare and concerns of the military to strengthen professionalism.

Authoritarianism at School: Indoctrination Education, Political Socialisation, and Citizenship in North Korea

ABSTRACT It is well known that North Korea uses political propaganda to elicit popular support, and this article focuses on how primary and secondary schools play an essential role in conveying the regime’s messages. The article asks how this process shapes North Koreans’ perceptions towards citizenship and how their perceptions of ‘democracy’ differ from those in other parts of the world. School education, I argue, socialises North Koreans and shapes their everyday political attitudes and citizenship perceptions. This study examines 32 North Korean Socialist Moral textbooks and identifies four core regime messages embedded in these texts: Personality Cult education in relation to the Kims, promoting socialism, fostering nationalism, and cultivating communitarianism and collectivism. I propose that these regime messages positively and negatively affect perceptions of democratic citizenship. Messages that promote communitarianism can encourage North Koreans to engage in democratic politics, but messages about political leadership, nationalism, and collectivism can hamper North Koreans’ understanding of democracy and their capacity to develop democratic norms. This study has implications for research into how North Korean defectors are integrated into democratic South Korea, suggesting that these defectors’ longstanding exposure to authoritarian education in North Korea will necessarily influence how they conceive of democracy.

Inclusionary Housing Policy in Cities of the South: Navigating a Path Between Continuity and Disruption

Inclusionary housing policy (IHP) encourages developers to provide affordable housing in well-located areas. This can add to their costs and risks, so the process of policy adoption is complicated and contested. This paper provides a synthesis of the literature and then analyzes the efforts to implement IHP of two South African cities, Johannesburg and Cape Town. The core proposition is that making residential development more inclusive requires at least three ingredients to ensure meaningful change. First, the case for reform needs popular support and an active civil society to secure the backing of political leaders and officials facing resistance from entrenched real estate interests. Second, the policy needs to be feasible in an economic sense and calibrated in an incremental way that will not jeopardize private investment. Third, a robust legal framework is required to institutionalize the changes and to limit disputes and disruption.

Strict COVID-19 lockdown and popular regime support in China

ABSTRACT In response to the COVID-19 crisis, China implemented lockdown measures that were the most stringent and enduring in the world. This study conducts the first systematic analysis of how China’s historic COVID-19 lockdown impacted popular support for the authoritarian regime. I argue that strict lockdowns have differential effects on popular regime support depending on their duration. A relatively short lockdown signals to citizens the state’s resolution and capacity to protect them from threats, thereby increasing their support. Long-lasting restrictions, however, cause excessive harm to their victims and ultimately turn the citizenry against the state. I utilize people’s varying exposure to the lockdown measures and two rounds of original surveys to provide evidence for the theory. The study contributes to our understanding of the effectiveness of authoritarian rule in managing major crises and highlights the role that fear and coercion play in maintaining authoritarian stability.

Mapping the Coercive Turn: Universal Credit, Social Crisis, and the Politics of Welfare in Austerity Britain, 2010–2019

This article examines the politics of welfare in Britain from 2010 to 2019. Drawing on Gramscian literature, the first section outlines an original framework of the ‘divide-and-rule’ politics of welfare during the 1980s and 1990s in the United Kingdom. The second section examines the return of welfare restructuring in Britain following the 2008 global financial crisis, focusing on Universal Credit. It contends that a significant escalation of coercive social policies within the social security system undermined previous social antagonisms underpinning the political coalitions of neoliberal welfare reform. Alongside deepening economic stagnation and dislocation exacerbated by austerity after 2010, it argues that this coercive turn intensified an unfolding crisis of legitimacy. The third section examines the politics of welfare amid an unfolding social crisis in Britain. It argues that despite burgeoning socio-political discontent and the emergence of the counter-hegemonic project of Corbynism, 2016–2019 was characterised by an interregnum. With the defeat of Corbynism amid protracted Brexit negotiations, this included a period of political impasse in which popular support for welfare reform, austerity and neoliberalism were in decline, but without an attendant shift in the balance of political forces to advance an alternative hegemonic project. As a result, a deepening social crisis continued to unfold.