Incumbent and opposition popular support and boycotts in authoritarian and hybrid regimes in Africa, the Middle East and beyond

Abstract

ABSTRACT Variation in election boycotts in Africa and the Middle East raise the question of the factors that influence the likelihood of boycotts. Examining this dynamic in Africa, the Middle East and around the globe, we explore one possible factor influencing national election boycotts: the relative level of popular support between the regime and opposition. Utilising the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset, we find that when the regime has greater popular support than the opposition, the likelihood of major boycotts is low. In contrast, when the opposition has more popular support than the regime at the point of election, the likelihood of boycotts increases. These findings highlight the importance of publicly observable levels of support as a means for opposition parties to gauge the possible payoff for boycotting, particularly in authoritarian and hybrid regimes where lack of transparency creates uncertainty regarding other sources of regime strength or weakness.